With branches "Bernanke in Berlin" Forum "Derbent Wall Part 16 Molchanov VA Registered: 13.04.2007 Posts: 145 Post Posted: Fri December 14, 2007 5:29 pm Post subject: Reply with quote Monitoring banking Press: The Gold Rush is still ahead Gold fever is yet to come 14.12.2007, Gazette The price of gold in August began to grow quickly and in November rose to $ 846 per troy ounce, ie, increased by one third. And although in the last month the market as a whole again headway, experts say it is nothing more than a respite
Over the past three years, the world price of gold rose more than 90%. But the really bull market has not even started, says John Hathaway, portfolio manager of Tocqueville Gold Fund: despite rising prices, expert statements and cash flow of investment funds into the market of precious metals, the broad investment community has not yet been incorporated into the game.
Share should Russian banks are opening up to investors depersonalized metal accounts (CBO), guided by the ruble prices of Bank of Russia. But due to the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar increase in gold prices in ruble terms, less than a dollar. Bank rates of purchase and sale of metal, which is recorded on the OMC differ. So, in Rosbank spread quotations of gold - about 3%.
From October 2006 to September 2007 Tocqueville Gold Fund with assets of $ 1.128 billion received income 38,2%. But for the fund with such a high income net inflow of investor funds for that period was quite small - just $ 50 million: they have invested in the fund $ 330 million and took $ 280 million Relatively low interest and low volatility suggest that many serious investors have not even entered the market. The degree of volatility, or the expected average monthly deviation of the price of gold is now about 20%, says managing a hedge fund that specializes in transactions with precious metals. "In 1980, during this" bull market, it was at the level of 50-60%. This is a sure sign that the bull market has not started yet "- he says.
Dizzying perspectives
Once in September and October, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to cushion the impact of the credit crisis and the dollar's decline has accelerated, the price of an ounce of gold reached $ 846 on Nov. 7 - the highest level over the past 27 years. Played into the hands of investors and the rise in oil prices to nearly $ 100 per barrel: the gold they bought to hedge on the acceleration of inflation. But to repeat the record in 1980 ($ 850), adjusted for inflation, the price of gold should reach $ 2500, so grow it for a long time, "said Kevin McArthur, CEO of Canadian gold mining company Goldcorp.
Increase in gold prices will be more slow and time-consuming, said David Fuller, editor of investment newsletter Fullermoney. The main phase of the recovery that began with the century, will be more gradual and will continue, with corrections, about 20 years, and accelerated growth is expected in the final stages of "bull" market, when price increases will tend to participate all - from housewives to central banks .
At rest
But soon, however, may be a period of consolidation. "Like other commodities, gold is subject to correction - writes Christopher Wood, publisher of investment newsletter" The fear and greed "and chief strategist of Hong Kong brokerage CLSA. - However, we do not sell gold, and will not buy more when the price falls. " "Gold has been one of the tools that benefited the most during that broke out in August, the credit crunch" - said in a recent report by Jim O'Neill, Director of Global Economic Research Goldman Sachs. He expects some decline in the dollar price of gold as a result of the gradual normalization of the situation in the financial sector in the coming months. Deterrent and has been a strengthening of the dollar.
According to analysts of Canadian ScotiaMocatta, in 2008, market participants will focus on achieving price of $ 1000 per ounce. With the increase in the price volatility will increase, but demand from the jewelry industry and investors, who will enter the market at the time of falling prices, will provide support for him.
Michael Overchenko
Source: Vedomosti From: banki.ru Back to top Send private message RE: Bernanke BERLIN Author: Administrator Date: 04.03.2008 16:54:54 Molchanov VA Registered: 13.04.2007 Posts: 145 Post Posted: Mon December 17, 2007 5:21 am Post subject: REVIEW Reply with quote "Global markets for 9 - December 15, 2007" News Date: 15.12.2007 Publication date: 15.12.2007 00:23 The new plan of central banks 17/12/2007 Sergei Egishyants
Good afternoon. Military-political part of last week was poor on the significant events - the audience paid attention except on the new disassembly of Iran: there the National Congress of Resistance, said that the CIA is doing badly - say, as recognized shtatovskih intelligence, in 2003 nuclear weapons program and Iran's stopped, but in 2004 it resumed again. Neocons in America, slightly revived - but this case was the extent of: shtatovskih officialdom did not respond - as well as the Iranian authorities and representatives of the IAEA. Markets have calmed down on that score - and turned their eyes on the economy. China panic
Pacific basically solved the problem with inflation and overheating. In New Zealand, home prices in November, returned to record highs +6.7% versus the same month last year. In Australia, the number of jobs in the last month of autumn has increased by 52.6 thousand - however, laid the Anglo-Saxon statistics made themselves felt and here: it seemed, would be as soon as employment increased by an amount equal to 0.5% of the workforce, it would be logical to assume reduction unemployment in these same half a percentage point - in reality, however, the level rose by 0.2%, the wonders and only. Authorities there, however, has no illusions - and the fear of high inflation (talked about this newly Treasurer Wayne Swan), while at the same time, chief executive officer of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens was glad now developing the financial crisis - say, because it rates on loans have increased themselves, cooling the economy and thus not requiring the central bank more and more base rate rises. But sadly was head of the monetary services of Hong Kong Joseph Yam - he expects the current crisis, a lot of trouble for the financial center of Asia would be quite inappropriate.
But for China's financial crisis is less important than the overheating of the economy - the latter once again proved itself: in November, consumer prices showed an annual increase of 6.9% (in October was 6.5%, summer 6.4%, while in spring only 2-4 %) - a 11-year high and a clear indicator of failure of all efforts there the authorities to cool the economy. Most embarrassing moment of all these statistics is that, unlike most other countries, the main locomotive of inflationary runup in China is no fuel, and food - its prices last year rose by as much as 18.2%. This fact throws the Chinese authorities in a state close to panic: in any case, it is difficult to otherwise characterize the actions of the People's Bank of China, desperate to achieve something simple method of gradual tightening of monetary policy and lifted now reserve ratio for commercial banks at once on a percentage - now it is 14.5% and, of course, is at historical highs. At the same time, the authorities are confused and afraid to go in tightening too far and thereby cause a sudden collapse - in the admitted and the head of the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan. Therefore, the People's Bank of China still afraid to let the yuan rise too rapidly against the dollar - and although the visit by Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson shtatovskih Chinese currency will show the historical high of about 7.35, in general, the official left Beijing empty-handed: his colleagues from China made it clear what is considered Paulson as "lame duck" - and so are not going to listen too closely to the wishes of Americans to change the administration there in a year.
In Japan, some interest was the meeting of the central bank, which is scheduled for next Wednesday and Thursday - unexpectedly harsh rhetoric Toshihiko Fukui has raised hopes for a possible rate increase. Good data is only strengthened this hope: industrial orders rebounded in October by 12.7% compared with September, which made each year made folding dynamics of this indicator plus (3.3%). Broad money supply in November grew by 2.0% and selling prices of producers - by 2.3% compared to the same month of 2006. Finally, the trade balance in October, already swelled by 1.5 times over the last year - well, it was fun, but only through Friday: last day last week, the Bank of Japan released the quarterly Tankan survey of business activity - and he has disappointed the market participants. The main index, calculated as the difference between optimists and pessimists among the surveyed managers of large manufacturing companies, has declined in the last quarter of this year from 23% to 19% and the forecast for the next quarter includes another one like it drop. Decrease noted among large companies services; in small business aforesaid indicator and does is in the negative region (ie deterioration noted more managers than improving), the only positive aspect of the report was an unexpected intention of large companies to increase investment rates. Total Tankan only confirmed the well-known: the whole Japanese economy is alive solely by large export-oriented corporations - domestic demand remains very sluggish over for nearly 19 years in a row. Comments officials in Japan have indicated that prudent tactic remains the main policy tamoshny: Kazumasa Iwata, deputy central bank has complained about the gradual spread of financial crisis on Japanese banks, Vice Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga said the need to "carefully monitor the dynamics of corporate activity", Economy Minister Hiroko Ota bitterly complained about various unpleasant factors of the moment, and finally, government spokesman Nobutaka Masimura reminded that the Cabinet is not in a hurry to declare victory over deflation - in general, from the forthcoming meeting of the Bank of Japan can hardly wait for something unexpected. Gallop and retail prices
In Europe, economic data was a little bit - attracted attention only to fall in December, the index of economic sentiment in Germany, according to the research center ZEW, as well as the upward revision (from 3.0% to 3.1%) growth rate of consumer prices in the EU in November. Several officials of the European Union was marked by tough anti-inflation speech - basically there were officials of the ECB (Trichet, Weber, Stark, Gonzalez-Paramo, and Caden). The head of the Eurogroup Junker spoke to more cautious, expressing concern about the growing financial crisis now, well, and President Sarkozy of France, as usual, attacked with insults to the euro is too expensive - the last, by the way, listen to and quite cheerfully flew down. From Switzerland in the main news came from the bank UBS: first, as usual, the bad (have to write off about $ 10 billion loss because of what the outcome of the last quarter, and possibly the entire year will be minus) - and then a good (instead of state Investment Company of Singapore and an unnamed investor from the Middle East will give the bank 11.5 billion dollars). Heavy story with a British bank Northern Rock is developing vigorously: the possible buyers have only two, with existing shareholders to mollify the spirit "will persist, generally get nothing." By the way, this story has already started the first major victim - it must become deputy president of the Bank of England Sir John GIVE who headed it to the financial stability and well proshlyapivshy this whole crisis, is expected to replace him someone from the banking heavyweights City. In general, according to the Times, the overall situation in the financial sector the UK is so heavy that the Bank of England will not cut rates again - according to experts of the newspaper, at least up to 4.0% (now it is equal to 5.5%). Only confirmed this study RICS, ascertains another fall in house prices - and the mood in this area are pessimistic than ever for all 10 years of observations. Immediately and the Confederation of British Industry noted a marked deterioration in December - for example, expectations regarding production volume now the worst for last 2 years.
In the U.S. the same economic indicators came out optimistic. Industrial production in November, a little grown up, the trade deficit remained relatively low in October, pending home sales unexpectedly in November showed an increase in the second month in a row - and the October value was also revised up decently. Retail sales in November and made a hefty jump in at all - by 1.2% overall and by 1.8% excluding motor vehicles; the fact that American consumers do not expect to reduce costs, in spite of everything, called surge of optimism with the market - especially as the dollar shown on the evening gruel all around. A few strained, however, the rate of inflation - and if consumer prices came in November, more or less decent (though still high), the wholesale prices manufacturers drew off at all: in general, according to official figures grew by 3.2% per month, which was not a end of 1973, over the past 5 years, prices rose by 34.8% according to official data (the maximum in the spring of 1984); real fun if you throw out statistics, growth and reached 44.0% at all (which was not in the summer of 1983) - and, judging the image of 5-year dynamics of the indicator in the next 2 years to reach the peaks of 1951 and 1977 is realistic. Meanwhile, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan continues to work gloomy prophet - he raised the chances of a recession in the U.S. with 1 / 3 to 1 / 2. His current followers gathered on Tuesday - and then cut both base rates at 0.25%, noting for the sake of the danger of inflation, they made it clear that they are ready to continue cutting rates to save the financial system. A save is there anyone: Bank of America closed the regular investment fund; Citigroup, desperate to create a super fund rescue structured investment vehicles, included in its already popping at the seams balance is 49 billion dollars of doubtful assets of its seven such companies - for which was immediately punished by lower ratings from agencies Moody's. In general, the situation at the bank was threatening - so that conspiracy is quite difficult have apprehended care of Robert Rubin as head of the company: it is not clear whether "the Moor has done his job, whether he sees no way out, whether the shareholders are dissatisfied with them - in Anyway there is reason to fear that even large Arab infusion is not very helpful on the verge of bankruptcy monster Wall Street. By the way, the Arabs in general have recently raged: after injections into Citigroup and UBS, they started to buy everything - one investment fund UAE (Dubai International Capital) acquired 5% stake in the Japanese Sony, the other (Mubadala) chose 8% stake in the U.S. AMD; and shtatovskih Corporation Dow Chemical led part of the business in Kuwait, forming a joint venture with Kuwait Petroleum Corporation company, for 50% stake in which the sheikhs paid 9.5 billion dollars.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Realizing the gravity of the unfolding crisis, the authorities continue to strengthen efforts to assist troubled financial market participants. After taking a week earlier programs to support borrowers in the U.S., the Fed and other major central banks of the world (Canadian, British, European and Swiss), released last Wednesday, yet another plan - which envisages the introduction of special auctions of short-term loans at rates much lower than market . Fed opens currency swap lines to other central banks - so that they can provide loans in dollars, the total volume of transactions expected in the early stages is very important - only the first 8 days, only the Fed intends to add approximately $ 40 billion on such auctions. One of the most attractive to potential bidders details of the plan is the fact that participation in these auctions is a free (as opposed to "discount window" the Fed, which can take only two dozen primary dealers), but an anonymous (ie, draw business reputation will not suffer). A new mechanism to replace the existing cumbersome, may well help to solve the most urgent problem of the moment - hard "plugging" in the interbank market, short of money, on the other hand, it is clear that the main reasons that gave rise to these challenges, it will not eliminate - this is immediately highlighted and the leading actors, members of the ECB Governing Lucas Papademos, the National Bank of Switzerland, Thomas Jordan and the U.S. Federal Reserve (who asked to remain anonymous). Thus, the new plan is only a kind of backup, which does not allow the banking system to collapse - but all are already well aware that against the background of the deferral, which gives this plan, you need to spend very, very strict procedure for recovery of the financial system. It seems that this process has already started - and started with a harsh upbringing of banks: the court in Ohio has sent out Deutsche Bank, trying to implement right away at home from his unfortunate debtors, and the chief prosecutor of Illinois has joined the investigation of the Securities and Exchange Commission in respect of the largest mortgage U.S. lender, Countrywide Financial - goal, it seems, is to discourage hunting of banks to lend to anybody. If you add the hard press of parastatal companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (they have already agreed to introduce a surcharge for purchasing banks' mortgage loans or guarantee them - it just should scare off many of the more recent of such a simple and affordable process of getting rid of responsibility), it becomes clear : the life of the world financial system over the next year or two will be very "fun". But even in this life, there is a place deed: how proudly told Goldman Sachs, his unit engaged in mortgage-backed securities and numbering only 16 traders, all brilliantly anticipated the current problems - so much so that managed to emerging crises, not only did not suffer damages, but and profit as much $ 4 billion, which completely blocked all the losses of other business units. Now, Goldman Sachs can safely look to the future - and the coming week, when he, along with other big investment banks will report the last quarter, its performance promise is very different from a much more gloomy numbers, Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley. Apart from all these reports, the upcoming week is also notable because it will last before the little Christmas-New Year holidays - hence, we see numerous closed positions and, consequently, the sharp movements in the markets.
Have a nice week.
Source: itquote.ru
From: worldcrisis.ru
Over the past three years, the world price of gold rose more than 90%. But the really bull market has not even started, says John Hathaway, portfolio manager of Tocqueville Gold Fund: despite rising prices, expert statements and cash flow of investment funds into the market of precious metals, the broad investment community has not yet been incorporated into the game.
Share should Russian banks are opening up to investors depersonalized metal accounts (CBO), guided by the ruble prices of Bank of Russia. But due to the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar increase in gold prices in ruble terms, less than a dollar. Bank rates of purchase and sale of metal, which is recorded on the OMC differ. So, in Rosbank spread quotations of gold - about 3%.
From October 2006 to September 2007 Tocqueville Gold Fund with assets of $ 1.128 billion received income 38,2%. But for the fund with such a high income net inflow of investor funds for that period was quite small - just $ 50 million: they have invested in the fund $ 330 million and took $ 280 million Relatively low interest and low volatility suggest that many serious investors have not even entered the market. The degree of volatility, or the expected average monthly deviation of the price of gold is now about 20%, says managing a hedge fund that specializes in transactions with precious metals. "In 1980, during this" bull market, it was at the level of 50-60%. This is a sure sign that the bull market has not started yet "- he says.
Dizzying perspectives
Once in September and October, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to cushion the impact of the credit crisis and the dollar's decline has accelerated, the price of an ounce of gold reached $ 846 on Nov. 7 - the highest level over the past 27 years. Played into the hands of investors and the rise in oil prices to nearly $ 100 per barrel: the gold they bought to hedge on the acceleration of inflation. But to repeat the record in 1980 ($ 850), adjusted for inflation, the price of gold should reach $ 2500, so grow it for a long time, "said Kevin McArthur, CEO of Canadian gold mining company Goldcorp.
Increase in gold prices will be more slow and time-consuming, said David Fuller, editor of investment newsletter Fullermoney. The main phase of the recovery that began with the century, will be more gradual and will continue, with corrections, about 20 years, and accelerated growth is expected in the final stages of "bull" market, when price increases will tend to participate all - from housewives to central banks .
At rest
But soon, however, may be a period of consolidation. "Like other commodities, gold is subject to correction - writes Christopher Wood, publisher of investment newsletter" The fear and greed "and chief strategist of Hong Kong brokerage CLSA. - However, we do not sell gold, and will not buy more when the price falls. " "Gold has been one of the tools that benefited the most during that broke out in August, the credit crunch" - said in a recent report by Jim O'Neill, Director of Global Economic Research Goldman Sachs. He expects some decline in the dollar price of gold as a result of the gradual normalization of the situation in the financial sector in the coming months. Deterrent and has been a strengthening of the dollar.
According to analysts of Canadian ScotiaMocatta, in 2008, market participants will focus on achieving price of $ 1000 per ounce. With the increase in the price volatility will increase, but demand from the jewelry industry and investors, who will enter the market at the time of falling prices, will provide support for him.
Michael Overchenko
Source: Vedomosti From: banki.ru Back to top Send private message RE: Bernanke BERLIN Author: Administrator Date: 04.03.2008 16:54:54 Molchanov VA Registered: 13.04.2007 Posts: 145 Post Posted: Mon December 17, 2007 5:21 am Post subject: REVIEW Reply with quote "Global markets for 9 - December 15, 2007" News Date: 15.12.2007 Publication date: 15.12.2007 00:23 The new plan of central banks 17/12/2007 Sergei Egishyants
Good afternoon. Military-political part of last week was poor on the significant events - the audience paid attention except on the new disassembly of Iran: there the National Congress of Resistance, said that the CIA is doing badly - say, as recognized shtatovskih intelligence, in 2003 nuclear weapons program and Iran's stopped, but in 2004 it resumed again. Neocons in America, slightly revived - but this case was the extent of: shtatovskih officialdom did not respond - as well as the Iranian authorities and representatives of the IAEA. Markets have calmed down on that score - and turned their eyes on the economy. China panic
Pacific basically solved the problem with inflation and overheating. In New Zealand, home prices in November, returned to record highs +6.7% versus the same month last year. In Australia, the number of jobs in the last month of autumn has increased by 52.6 thousand - however, laid the Anglo-Saxon statistics made themselves felt and here: it seemed, would be as soon as employment increased by an amount equal to 0.5% of the workforce, it would be logical to assume reduction unemployment in these same half a percentage point - in reality, however, the level rose by 0.2%, the wonders and only. Authorities there, however, has no illusions - and the fear of high inflation (talked about this newly Treasurer Wayne Swan), while at the same time, chief executive officer of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens was glad now developing the financial crisis - say, because it rates on loans have increased themselves, cooling the economy and thus not requiring the central bank more and more base rate rises. But sadly was head of the monetary services of Hong Kong Joseph Yam - he expects the current crisis, a lot of trouble for the financial center of Asia would be quite inappropriate.
But for China's financial crisis is less important than the overheating of the economy - the latter once again proved itself: in November, consumer prices showed an annual increase of 6.9% (in October was 6.5%, summer 6.4%, while in spring only 2-4 %) - a 11-year high and a clear indicator of failure of all efforts there the authorities to cool the economy. Most embarrassing moment of all these statistics is that, unlike most other countries, the main locomotive of inflationary runup in China is no fuel, and food - its prices last year rose by as much as 18.2%. This fact throws the Chinese authorities in a state close to panic: in any case, it is difficult to otherwise characterize the actions of the People's Bank of China, desperate to achieve something simple method of gradual tightening of monetary policy and lifted now reserve ratio for commercial banks at once on a percentage - now it is 14.5% and, of course, is at historical highs. At the same time, the authorities are confused and afraid to go in tightening too far and thereby cause a sudden collapse - in the admitted and the head of the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan. Therefore, the People's Bank of China still afraid to let the yuan rise too rapidly against the dollar - and although the visit by Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson shtatovskih Chinese currency will show the historical high of about 7.35, in general, the official left Beijing empty-handed: his colleagues from China made it clear what is considered Paulson as "lame duck" - and so are not going to listen too closely to the wishes of Americans to change the administration there in a year.
In Japan, some interest was the meeting of the central bank, which is scheduled for next Wednesday and Thursday - unexpectedly harsh rhetoric Toshihiko Fukui has raised hopes for a possible rate increase. Good data is only strengthened this hope: industrial orders rebounded in October by 12.7% compared with September, which made each year made folding dynamics of this indicator plus (3.3%). Broad money supply in November grew by 2.0% and selling prices of producers - by 2.3% compared to the same month of 2006. Finally, the trade balance in October, already swelled by 1.5 times over the last year - well, it was fun, but only through Friday: last day last week, the Bank of Japan released the quarterly Tankan survey of business activity - and he has disappointed the market participants. The main index, calculated as the difference between optimists and pessimists among the surveyed managers of large manufacturing companies, has declined in the last quarter of this year from 23% to 19% and the forecast for the next quarter includes another one like it drop. Decrease noted among large companies services; in small business aforesaid indicator and does is in the negative region (ie deterioration noted more managers than improving), the only positive aspect of the report was an unexpected intention of large companies to increase investment rates. Total Tankan only confirmed the well-known: the whole Japanese economy is alive solely by large export-oriented corporations - domestic demand remains very sluggish over for nearly 19 years in a row. Comments officials in Japan have indicated that prudent tactic remains the main policy tamoshny: Kazumasa Iwata, deputy central bank has complained about the gradual spread of financial crisis on Japanese banks, Vice Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga said the need to "carefully monitor the dynamics of corporate activity", Economy Minister Hiroko Ota bitterly complained about various unpleasant factors of the moment, and finally, government spokesman Nobutaka Masimura reminded that the Cabinet is not in a hurry to declare victory over deflation - in general, from the forthcoming meeting of the Bank of Japan can hardly wait for something unexpected. Gallop and retail prices
In Europe, economic data was a little bit - attracted attention only to fall in December, the index of economic sentiment in Germany, according to the research center ZEW, as well as the upward revision (from 3.0% to 3.1%) growth rate of consumer prices in the EU in November. Several officials of the European Union was marked by tough anti-inflation speech - basically there were officials of the ECB (Trichet, Weber, Stark, Gonzalez-Paramo, and Caden). The head of the Eurogroup Junker spoke to more cautious, expressing concern about the growing financial crisis now, well, and President Sarkozy of France, as usual, attacked with insults to the euro is too expensive - the last, by the way, listen to and quite cheerfully flew down. From Switzerland in the main news came from the bank UBS: first, as usual, the bad (have to write off about $ 10 billion loss because of what the outcome of the last quarter, and possibly the entire year will be minus) - and then a good (instead of state Investment Company of Singapore and an unnamed investor from the Middle East will give the bank 11.5 billion dollars). Heavy story with a British bank Northern Rock is developing vigorously: the possible buyers have only two, with existing shareholders to mollify the spirit "will persist, generally get nothing." By the way, this story has already started the first major victim - it must become deputy president of the Bank of England Sir John GIVE who headed it to the financial stability and well proshlyapivshy this whole crisis, is expected to replace him someone from the banking heavyweights City. In general, according to the Times, the overall situation in the financial sector the UK is so heavy that the Bank of England will not cut rates again - according to experts of the newspaper, at least up to 4.0% (now it is equal to 5.5%). Only confirmed this study RICS, ascertains another fall in house prices - and the mood in this area are pessimistic than ever for all 10 years of observations. Immediately and the Confederation of British Industry noted a marked deterioration in December - for example, expectations regarding production volume now the worst for last 2 years.
In the U.S. the same economic indicators came out optimistic. Industrial production in November, a little grown up, the trade deficit remained relatively low in October, pending home sales unexpectedly in November showed an increase in the second month in a row - and the October value was also revised up decently. Retail sales in November and made a hefty jump in at all - by 1.2% overall and by 1.8% excluding motor vehicles; the fact that American consumers do not expect to reduce costs, in spite of everything, called surge of optimism with the market - especially as the dollar shown on the evening gruel all around. A few strained, however, the rate of inflation - and if consumer prices came in November, more or less decent (though still high), the wholesale prices manufacturers drew off at all: in general, according to official figures grew by 3.2% per month, which was not a end of 1973, over the past 5 years, prices rose by 34.8% according to official data (the maximum in the spring of 1984); real fun if you throw out statistics, growth and reached 44.0% at all (which was not in the summer of 1983) - and, judging the image of 5-year dynamics of the indicator in the next 2 years to reach the peaks of 1951 and 1977 is realistic. Meanwhile, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan continues to work gloomy prophet - he raised the chances of a recession in the U.S. with 1 / 3 to 1 / 2. His current followers gathered on Tuesday - and then cut both base rates at 0.25%, noting for the sake of the danger of inflation, they made it clear that they are ready to continue cutting rates to save the financial system. A save is there anyone: Bank of America closed the regular investment fund; Citigroup, desperate to create a super fund rescue structured investment vehicles, included in its already popping at the seams balance is 49 billion dollars of doubtful assets of its seven such companies - for which was immediately punished by lower ratings from agencies Moody's. In general, the situation at the bank was threatening - so that conspiracy is quite difficult have apprehended care of Robert Rubin as head of the company: it is not clear whether "the Moor has done his job, whether he sees no way out, whether the shareholders are dissatisfied with them - in Anyway there is reason to fear that even large Arab infusion is not very helpful on the verge of bankruptcy monster Wall Street. By the way, the Arabs in general have recently raged: after injections into Citigroup and UBS, they started to buy everything - one investment fund UAE (Dubai International Capital) acquired 5% stake in the Japanese Sony, the other (Mubadala) chose 8% stake in the U.S. AMD; and shtatovskih Corporation Dow Chemical led part of the business in Kuwait, forming a joint venture with Kuwait Petroleum Corporation company, for 50% stake in which the sheikhs paid 9.5 billion dollars.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
Realizing the gravity of the unfolding crisis, the authorities continue to strengthen efforts to assist troubled financial market participants. After taking a week earlier programs to support borrowers in the U.S., the Fed and other major central banks of the world (Canadian, British, European and Swiss), released last Wednesday, yet another plan - which envisages the introduction of special auctions of short-term loans at rates much lower than market . Fed opens currency swap lines to other central banks - so that they can provide loans in dollars, the total volume of transactions expected in the early stages is very important - only the first 8 days, only the Fed intends to add approximately $ 40 billion on such auctions. One of the most attractive to potential bidders details of the plan is the fact that participation in these auctions is a free (as opposed to "discount window" the Fed, which can take only two dozen primary dealers), but an anonymous (ie, draw business reputation will not suffer). A new mechanism to replace the existing cumbersome, may well help to solve the most urgent problem of the moment - hard "plugging" in the interbank market, short of money, on the other hand, it is clear that the main reasons that gave rise to these challenges, it will not eliminate - this is immediately highlighted and the leading actors, members of the ECB Governing Lucas Papademos, the National Bank of Switzerland, Thomas Jordan and the U.S. Federal Reserve (who asked to remain anonymous). Thus, the new plan is only a kind of backup, which does not allow the banking system to collapse - but all are already well aware that against the background of the deferral, which gives this plan, you need to spend very, very strict procedure for recovery of the financial system. It seems that this process has already started - and started with a harsh upbringing of banks: the court in Ohio has sent out Deutsche Bank, trying to implement right away at home from his unfortunate debtors, and the chief prosecutor of Illinois has joined the investigation of the Securities and Exchange Commission in respect of the largest mortgage U.S. lender, Countrywide Financial - goal, it seems, is to discourage hunting of banks to lend to anybody. If you add the hard press of parastatal companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (they have already agreed to introduce a surcharge for purchasing banks' mortgage loans or guarantee them - it just should scare off many of the more recent of such a simple and affordable process of getting rid of responsibility), it becomes clear : the life of the world financial system over the next year or two will be very "fun". But even in this life, there is a place deed: how proudly told Goldman Sachs, his unit engaged in mortgage-backed securities and numbering only 16 traders, all brilliantly anticipated the current problems - so much so that managed to emerging crises, not only did not suffer damages, but and profit as much $ 4 billion, which completely blocked all the losses of other business units. Now, Goldman Sachs can safely look to the future - and the coming week, when he, along with other big investment banks will report the last quarter, its performance promise is very different from a much more gloomy numbers, Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley. Apart from all these reports, the upcoming week is also notable because it will last before the little Christmas-New Year holidays - hence, we see numerous closed positions and, consequently, the sharp movements in the markets.
Have a nice week.
Source: itquote.ru
From: worldcrisis.ru
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