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суббота, 19 февраля 2011 г.

Who prevents the strong ruble?

 Look through the press about a meeting of Putin with A. Kudrin and headache: what are they talking about? Just can not understand it. It seems that many journalists, describing the meeting, did not understand.
"Too strong ruble, according to the president, could undermine the competitiveness of national economy", - writes the newspaper Kommersant.
How could undermine the national economy strong ruble? Strong, I am taking them used the expression, can cut income commodity monopolies supplying hydrocarbons to world markets, but does not undermine but rather strengthen the position of manufacturers in other industries. Americans lately are doing everything to strengthen the dollar, knowing that the foundation of stable existence of American manufacturers. And we have, it appears the opposite is true. Unintelligible to Putin's statement, Kudrin has Bole confusing answers: "The main measures to avoid building - is responsible Alexei Kudrin - a measure of the Government, but as soon as the government increases its spending by oil and gas revenues, it threatens to further strengthening. As part of the forecast, we are now prepared, we will be able to keep within the planned parameters of the consolidation. "
Kudrin would stick to a single coordinate system, and not to declare absolutely contradictory statements. MPs and the people, he said that additional costs will cause inflation, and should therefore be reduced and, in this case, the increase in costs due to oil and gas revenues, according to the minister, will strengthen the ruble. How will strengthen? After all expenses will be made in rubles rather than dollars, and therefore will increase the mass of the ruble in relation to goods, and the same dollar, which correspondingly lowers the real value of the ruble, rather than strengthen.
Journalists Vedomosti Petrachkova Alexander, Alexander Bekker, and assessed the situation: "Strengthening of the ruble could threaten the economy, particularly the real sector, said Vladimir Putin. Therefore, the Finance Ministry and Central Bank will have to simultaneously fight inflation and strengthen the course."
It seems that the Finance Ministry and Central Bank officials, who had taken too zealously to combat inflation, at the request of the president, came on corn commodities giants, so much so hurt that Vladimir Putin himself, undertook to support inflation.
"The president asked urgently to slow the pace of strengthening the national currency", - print "Time of news", "Putin instructed to brake the ruble," - says Larisa Kaftan in Komsomolskaya Pravda.

 
The fact that the strengthening of the ruble, unprofitable commodity monopolies, and the president is concerned about this, Vladimir Putin and not hide. The President said that he met with representatives of big companies, they still have a margin of safety ", but the rapid appreciation of the ruble could create a problem for them. Their goods become more expensive compared to imports and losers of global competition. As the government is going to save the day? "
And in manufacturing, public goods, we compete, if 70% of our exports of raw materials?
"We must resist the strengthening of the ruble by all available methods!" - Selflessly and with joy, said the minister. And he was not pleased! After all this time, Kudrin said the only thing that did, in favor of large monopolies, which supplies the world market oil, gas, metals, wood, and so on. Well, now, he is also the president got support. So now wait for the new price increase, as Kudrin will deal with the strengthening of the ruble, with renewed vigor.
There is no doubt that Putin is inclined to the side of the raw material monopolies. This is the only way to characterize the President's statement he made at a meeting with Minister of Finance Kudrin. Six months ago, the president set the goal to strengthen the ruble, reduced inflation, the ruble convertible, and now, under pressure from the owners of raw magnates, turns the entire policy in the opposite direction.
"As he found out after" contacts with the business, "a course on the ruble could damage Russia's economy .- newspaper Vedomosti. - And now to the Central Bank and the Government, in fact, put the triple task: to prevent inflation, to keep the ruble and continued to increase government spending. With such input should expect an interesting political season. If not resignation, that serious failures are guaranteed: the challenge posed by the president, is impracticable.
The situation will remain a stalemate, if not eliminate one of three objectives - subject to only two introductory equation can be solved. "
"To strengthen the ruble to the Russian authorities would be convenient to suppress inflation. But now, when the president ordered not to do this before the Finance Ministry and Central Bank raises extraordinarily difficult task - and not to strengthen the ruble, and higher prices to fight. - Blankly asks, "Izvestia". - So, come on inflation. "
Under pressure from interest commodity monopolies sag not only the president but also the government, which has developed a three-year plan to reduce the revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons. For three years the share of production tax (MET) and export duties in the budget revenues will decrease from 50% to 30%. "This, according to Kudrin, and there is a way of reducing reliance of the budget on oil prices. That's just the oil barons and their lobbyists in the government, as apparently did not get scared of its dependence on oil revenues, rather pump oil, and thank their benefactors.
Ivan Tevrizsky
23.08.2006

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