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среда, 9 февраля 2011 г.

You hear, we will repeat

It's obvious "new planet" has not reached the journalists "Izvestia" and they have not read our articles on economics, which were reviewed in detail the issues of inflation and development, as they are from room to room continue to publish articles which, with incredible tenacity, continue to argue that inflation - is the foundation of the growth of our economy, strengthening of the ruble reduces the competitiveness of our economy. And again in Izvestia »№ 96, June 8, and an article which stated that the central bank is willing to sacrifice for the sake of the economy to combat rising prices, already signed by the three journalists. But, as I proceed from the assumption that these citizens are simply wrong, and not deliberately interpret the misconception that I deem it necessary to repeat his arguments to be finished with this false promise, even despite the fact that you have to talk about the mundane truths of political economy .
Let's think: as whether inflation is a necessary condition for the development of our economy, and strengthening of the ruble makes our economy less competitive, as claimed by Mr. Kudrin said. What we have already mentioned in the article "Stabilization Fund Kudrin. He was echoed by deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev, stating that the Central Bank is ready to go to a larger than anticipated strengthening of the ruble, although this would reduce the competitiveness of Russian producers over foreign ones. Are these selfless actions of the Central Bank to strengthen the ruble adversely affect the economy. But do not wake up to believe their word, and analyze, and whether it really is.
Inflationary pressures develop under the pressure of two factors - it is not related to going to the non-productive sphere, cash infusion from the government, and higher prices for goods so-called natural monopolies. And in both cases involved official. In the first case of this government, the finance ministry and central bank officials, while the second, officials of various levels of government participating in the tariff commission, and taking the decision to raise these or other tariffs. This clearly implies that the development of inflation benefit the state and the owners of the monopolies. After all, who urges on these processes, that they are profitable.
Monopoly due to its monopoly position or prevailing in their quest for profit-seeking it is not through cost reduction and productivity growth, which is very costly and troublesome, and by increasing prices for their goods, and, to date, it has successfully doing a finding common ground with the government.
This phenomenon does not belong to actions that increase the competitiveness of our economy, since all producers grow up production costs, and the lion's share of the profit goes into the pockets of monopolists. On this occasion, is not even distributed.
We now turn to the state and see what the state gets from the depreciation of the ruble? First, we must not forget that the state involved in the existing monopolies and therefore officials involved in the division of profits of the monopolies. Secondly, as a result of depreciation in the state a so-called inflationary boost, which officials can order at their discretion, including spend it on consolidating its power. Budget surplus touted by them as an achievement, as a result of strong economic activity, without understanding, and due to which there is currently too much money. Due to the development of production, due to the growth of labor productivity, or due to bleeding of our economy. Inflation boost is formed due to the fact that low payment approved article by article, in the form of lump sum and taxes are collected as a percentage of profit and turnover, and because of the time gap between when a throw-laundering and until the price equalization.
Consider a simple example. We assume that all cost money paid to 10 doctors, (This does not matter the number of recipients of budget money, 10 of their or 100000, the result is the same) the total annual salary which amounts to 240,000 rubles, with a monthly salary of a doctor in 2000, and the entire budget and makes 240 000 rubles. For simplicity, assume the condition that the budget revenues come from employers, who pay 50% of the profits. After stuffing money into circulation, or inflation of prices by monopolies, there is an increase in money supply and accordingly contributions to the budget, in monetary terms. If inflation is 10%, while prices for goods and services will grow by 10%, while the entrepreneurs get the same came to, say, 20%, but those twenty percent of the profits will be expressed no longer than 100 rubles and 110 rubles, and they payments to the budget from 50 rubles, as earlier, and 55 rubles, although it will be as before 50% of the profits. That is, the state will receive the budget is not 240,000 thousand rubles and 264,000 rubles, although they will express the same amount of value, which until the fall of the ruble. But the state has obligations to the doctors for this year, only 240,000 rubles, and so these inflationary 24,000 rubles government officials, with a clear conscience, spend them on your own, stating that these funds are an expression of their effective work.
If we consider it on a physical product, population, resulting in loss of purchasing power of pensions, allowances, stipends, salaries will be able to purchase only part of the goods that it consumes up to this, the other part became the property of the state, and it can spend its as so desired.
In our example, similar gains are doctors, standard of living which has fallen by 10%. The following year, a State may establish a budget increase of salaries of doctors by 10%, and set the spending at the level of 264,000 rubles, but inflation next year, even 10% would make them even poorer, because 10% of the 264,000 will be for 26 400 rubles. It is the desire of officials to obtain the additional funds from inflation and due to the fact that there is still no effect of inflation rate, which allows to recalculate monthly payments low, as well as and their desire to move from the annual budget approval for the triennial.
So far, we have considered the benefits of the state of inflation on budgetary payments, and now look at how inflation affects the agents involved in the manufacturing sector.
In addition to the official, in the sphere of economic relations, we have representatives of big business, which specializes in trading of raw materials on international markets or products of primary processing, business-oriented to the domestic market, small and medium business, and laborers. From all we have listed the agents of production to benefit from inflation receive state and big business, trading in world markets. Commodity monopolies benefit from the depreciation of the ruble, as prepared for the same amount of products sold on the world market, more rubles, which they pay, within the country, with equipment suppliers and workers at the old prices. The primary benefit of these companies comes from the constant backlog of wages from rising inflation. A state will receive additional profits by cutting off part of the profits of commodity tycoons. That's all, who benefits from inflation.
So, where is the economy arising from inflation, about which so much writing. How can there be development, when officials are known to profits buhnuli in American securities. That, to some degree, beneficial to the American economy, and so last year it grew by 4.5%, reduced unemployment, increased exports. It turns out that our economy has become a donor to a dying American. That's what about the use of accumulated resources in the country said State Duma deputy, deputy of the Committee on Economic Policy in the State Duma, Yelena Panina, "Arguments and Facts." "Stabilization Fund and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank is invested in illiquid securities of foreign countries. In other words, our "oil money" do not work on the domestic economy. "
Not the best way, at least for society, is disposed of super profit and our oligarchs. Only for the first quarter of 2005, the country exported $ 19 billion of capital. Remember the notorious Roma Roman Abramovich with his club Chelsea, with its billion-dollar yachts. In the Czech Republic no longer exists locks, not bought Russian nouveaux riches, and in London and its suburbs, as reported by Alexander Nekrasov, in Novaya Gazeta, is home to five billionaires, and even two hundred Russians with a fortune of tens of millions of dollars. But even this is not important, as our oligarchs spend the money, and that even if they wanted to invest in production, the country's development, the existing organic composition of capital, ie the ratio of the means of production and labor, ensuring receipt of certain norms profit, supported by the government, would not allow them to invest it with the required and estimated profit. This organic structure can withdraw significant funds from the economy, but does not allow them to effectively put back. The economy would simply choked by excessive capital inflows. The more so because a market in the country is limited, the international market also can not consume excessive quantities of raw materials. So that inflation, which would produce the oligarchs and bureaucrats excessive profits, does not contribute to the economic development of our country, as well, "baked" Kudrin, Illarionov, Gref, and their ilk.
Now we dwell on how inflation is reflected in those not privy to power, to the higher bureaucracy and the trade in raw materials for workers and employers. Whether inflation is developing the economy in this part?
Not to mention the fact that inflation reduces the standard of living of the majority of the population, thereby reducing life expectancy, it also has detrimental effect on economic development in general. As a result of the fall in real purchasing power of the population shrinking market for goods of mass demand, the illusion of over-production of goods and services, forcing manufacturers to turn off or suspend production. And although the cost of hired labor and decreases the entrepreneur loses much more than wins because he is not only the rate of profit, but also mass. He interesting to have 5% from 1000, less than 10% of one hundred, after 50 rubles more than 10. Second, no less disastrous consequences of inflation - a rise in money lending, which naturally hinders the possibility of developing small and medium-sized businesses because they do not in any case you can make a profit, giving the opportunity to pay the interest and inflation. Do not develop not only business loans, but do not crediting, mortgage, since wages are not keeping up with inflation. Third, in escalating inflation, employers refuse to invest for the long payback periods, which restrains the retooling and development of productivity. Fourth, the steady decline in labor costs, that is, real wages in manufacturing, holding back technological development, which is the basis of competitiveness of any economy. Why would the owner of the plant will implement the mechanization of the production or use of industrial robots, where he can always find the labor market, cheap and sufficiently skilled workers?
And today we see that the government continues to act in the same vein. They continue to operate on the principle of the Mexican revolutionary general who wrote about John Reed. When the general was asked how he wants to make people rich, he replied: "It's very simple. We will print lots and lots of money and will distribute to the poor. All will be rich. "
A few days ago the Russian government has decided to increase expenditure commitments of the federal budget in 2005, 382, 7 billion rubles. Of these, 34.4 billion rubles earmarked, as stated by Finance Minister Kudrin, to support the regions in 2006, and the rest will be spent on social needs, increasing salaries, pensions and allowance to the military.
Of course, it is necessary to raise and pensions, and benefits and salaries, but not in the form of additional issue of how this government is doing, and in parallel with the strengthening of the ruble. Instead of stimulating the production of commodity inflation, the government continues to unwind. And what is the support of the regions? For whom it is intended? What kind of uncertainty in the financial policy, which turns into various abuses. And, most likely for those who do more rollback officials who will determine to whom to give, and who does not.
This policy of the government, which holds it in alliance with the oligarchs, aimed at unwinding of inflation and the increase of the oligarchs, leading the country to a standstill, the degradation and economic backwardness. And all of this will result in the fact that accession to the WTO, simply collapse our economy.
Only increase productivity through the use of new technologies and reduce production costs per unit of production, can make our economy truly competitive. But this is impossible in an evolving inflation, under the domination of certain monopolies, in an uncontrolled bureaucracy, under the existing tax system to dilute one part of society and to enrich another.
Vitaly Glukhov
10.10.2005g.

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