"Financiers support the state as a rope hanged man" - Charles de Montesquieu
Russia is not afraid of Western sanctions - Russia has long lived under the most severe sanction the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance
Vladislav Zhukovsky: Clean the national traitors must begin with the financial and economic unit
Russia is not afraid of Western sanctions - Russia has long lived under the most severe sanction the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance last six months have become extremely indicative of the understanding of what is actually involved in the financial and economic bloc of the government, and why Western sanctions are not so dangerous for Russia, at the helm of the economy students are Gaidar and Chubais. Recent months clearly demonstrated how the same actions by the CBR and the Ministry of Finance to tighten monetary policy, raising key interest rates and taxes with the aggressive actions of member countries of NATO against Russia.
On Friday, July 25, 2014., Leadership of the European Union announced the tightening of sanctions against Russia and the introduction of the so-called sectoral and industry sanctions. EU countries have joined the extensive list of sanctions the United States. On the same day a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which unanimously, without further debate and controversy, it was decided to hold the third in the last 5 months round of monetary tightening.
The key interest rate at which the Bank of Russia shall provide loans to banks for one week against securities, willful decision was increased. And not increased by 0.25%, as expected, most economists and experts, and immediately all the 0.5% - 8% per annum, the highest level in the history of this rate. In addition, the leadership of the Central Bank have been significantly increased and other interest rates, which are under the control and refinance loans to banks.
It is unclear why the banks to lend to the real economy and to finance capital investments, taking the risks, if on deposit at the central bank interest rate is higher than the average rate of return for the economy as a whole ?! Apparently, including this explains the drop in the growth rate of lending to non-financial organizations, the minimum marks in the summer of 2009 crisis. and the decline of capital investments in the economy by 2.8% in the first half of 2014.
This significant increase in the key interest rate, which in the last two years has to determine the value of the ruble liquidity to the largest Russian banks in the situation significantly reducing the inflow of foreign currency (primarily export earnings) and a sharp limit opportunities to attract foreign loans, is the hidden meaning and contains important psychological message to the banks: money in Russia will go up, the liquidity deficit will worsen, the central bank will continue to raise interest rates, and credit risks will increase.
Moreover, the Central Bank of Russia has openly admitted that in the near future (1-1.5 years) money in Russia will only get more expensive - "in case of continued inflationary risks at a high level, the Bank of Russia will continue to increase in key interest rates." If you translate this phrase from a bird's tongue economists plain language, this means that the Bank of Russia will continue to fight against harmful policies independent of price inflation him strangling the economy and suppression of investment activity.
Inflation in Russia is growing steadily over the past 2.5 years and will continue to grow in the coming years - in 2011. in the midst of the Duma elections and on the eve of presidential elections officials in the Ministry of Economics and Statistics Service failed to "draw" in the inflation rate of 6.1%, reported about the lowest rate of growth of consumer prices already since 1990. In 2012. even the most politically correct and understated Rosstat prices rose by 6.6% in 2013. by 6.5%. In the first half of 2014. Inflation in Russia will exceed 7%, and in any given June annualized rates at all increased by 7.8%! Do not expect the situation to improve in the near future - the Russian economy ceased to help even the consistently high oil prices, enhanced depressive-crisis trends in the high technology industry downturn (in some industries by 15-30%), capital of Russia funneling (more than 440 billion dollars since 2008. until June 2014.), the surplus of the foreign trade account and current account balance of payments has been steadily declining, barely reduced the budget even in the face of the announced sequestration.
In this kind of situation, the Government and the Central Bank will be forced to conduct an annual depreciation of the ruble by 7-10% relative to the dollar, even while maintaining the stability of energy prices. It is obvious that the weakening of the ruble, the Government needed to "maintain the pants" Russian nizkoperedelnoy, resource economics, will provoke a rise in prices for imported goods and, as a consequence, the unwinding of the flywheel inflation.
Besides, the largest natural and quasi-natural monopoly, fused with the state and officials have said they do not intend to sit on dry rations and want to recoup their losses from the tariff freeze their accelerated growth in 2015-2017gg. Rise in price of imports, coupled with an increase in tariffs in the regulated industries and the growth of fuel prices will force the CBR to raise interest rates further. That will only exacerbate the extent and depth of the economic crisis in Russia, making Russia's economy becoming less competitive and attractive to investors.
There is a strong impression that the Central Bank of Russia, throughout the 20 years since its establishment, led by supporters of the ideology of market fundamentalism, compete with Washington, London and Brussels on the issue of the application of financial and economic harm to Russia. Apparently, there is a hidden secret Ladder dispute or who by their actions can cause maximum damage Russia's de-industrialized economy, low added value.
As far as can be judged, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in recent years doing everything possible to make unprofitable any kapitaloobrazuyuschie, productive investments in the real sector, to make unprofitable any production that is not associated with the sale of nonrenewable mineral resources and financial speculation, and ultimately undermine the incentives for any creative activity.
Not far behind, and the Ministry of Finance, who offered to fight the recession and the collapse of manufacturing activity in the world unique way - increase the tax burden on producers and the public. The ministry six months lobbying for an increase of VAT and personal income tax for at least 2 percentage points, as well as the resurgence of unconstitutional sales tax. Not to mention the increase in the retirement age, fold increase insurance premiums for the self-employed and voluntary-forced attempt to remove 300 billion rubles. pension savings of the population to finance the Crimea, the FIFA World Cup 2018. and many other fashion projects.
Through the efforts of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation recession in the Russian economy at risk to develop into an unprecedented in recent years, the economic crisis and paralysis of manufacturing activity. It is likely that the CBR is very uncomplicated and clumsy takes orders and commands from Washington, London and Brussels.
If the corrosive action of the West, steeped in Cold War phobias, can suffer three dozen major Russian companies and state-owned banks, then the actions of the Central Bank is not the first year the entire Russian economy suffers, all the producers and almost without exception, the Russians: the economy slips a state of crisis, production contracts, employment falls, layoffs rise, the prices of goods and services are growing steadily, inflation accelerated, the real standard of living falls Russians. Russian mega-regulator burns everything that is showing signs of life, and to what they can not reach officials from Washington, London and Brussels. Exactly the same flawed and pseudoscientific policies in the mid-1990s turned into a financial disaster, the decline of the industry, the destruction of the real sector, the debt crisis and default.
Scary is not the fact that Russia has come under Western sanctions - they can and should be an incentive for the recovery system of government and non-colonial comprador politicians wasting petrodollars. More dangerous and frightening fact that the Russian economy is a quarter-century of quasi-market reforms lives under the influence of currency and monetary sanctions of its own central bank.
If President Putin is right and Russia do have a so-called national traitors and "fifth column", then you need to look for it in the most vertical of power at the highest levels. Primarily in the financial and economic bloc of the government. As far as we can judge, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Russia have long since become the very "fifth column", which is the operational-tactical level playing to financial speculators, the oligarchs and corrupt officials, and at the strategic level keeps neocolonial dependence of Russia on the petrodollar system.
Russia took in the financial and economic vise. On the one hand, the United States and its satellites to block NATO are trying to drive the Russian two-sector, nizkoperedelnuyu raw materials economy into a deep crisis, closed western markets debt and equity capital, introduced a ban on the transfer of technology and R & D results, prohibit the supply of capital goods to Russia. On the other hand, the Central Bank of Russia is doing everything possible to make the Russian ruble loans prohibitively expensive in the country, to restrain the growth of money supply and money supply under the pseudoscientific justification to combat imported inflation, deprive economic agents incentives for production and investment.
The Central Bank has brought the situation to the point of absurdity - it fights inflation means that only unwind inflationary flywheel and encourage the growth of prices in the economy. The Central Bank of Russia and under the leadership of Ms Nabiullina sagely and damage to the economy is struggling with windmills - the regulator is struggling with rising prices for imported goods and services, as well as the rapid growth rates in regulated industries and natural monopolies raising interest rates.
In medical terms, this can be compared to, as if the doctor was trying to treat pneumonia or hepatitis in the already weakened, located at the death of the patient emission of blood.
In this case, it is a question to the President - or he likes the fact that siluanovsko-nabiullinskaya team make it the May decree on the establishment of high-tech jobs, the new industrialization of empty promises and patriotic chatter, and it quite suits the rot and bleeding of the Russian economy. Or soon will be followed by radical personnel decisions and cleaning series from the very national traitors in power whose actions pose to Russia a much greater threat than the entire West, with its sanctions together.
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