The devaluation of the ruble will destroy RussiaRising inflation and falling living standards will lead to a social explosion, the expert 05/09/12 17:52
MOSCOW, September 05 (New Region, Anastasia Smirnova) - The Bank of Russia conducts regular scheduled devaluation of the Russian ruble in the interests of commodity exporters. According to Deputy Director General "Kalita-Finance" Igor Suzdaltsev, in present conditions, this situation threatens to become very negative consequences for the entire country - Russia may fall to pieces.According to experts, the Bank of Russia to reduce the cost of the currency basket to 33 rubles (now it costs almost 36 rubles - approx. "HP"). He points out that the rate of the Russian ruble is regulated via two-currency basket as operational indicator intraday Bank of Russia. Works is simple - when the management of Bank of Russia raises the cost of the currency basket, which consists of 0.55 U.S. dollars and 0.45 of the euro, dealers in Russia are beginning to buy the dollar and the euro. In the trend followed by the central bank and dealers of commercial banks, investment companies, private investors, etc.
"Every fall, the Bank of Russia began actively to raise the value of currency basket and buy the dollar and the euro in rubles to raise rates of foreign currencies against the ruble and thus provide commodity exporters (public and private), the maximum revenue from the sale of their foreign exchange earnings. In this case, the oligarchs of the bureaucracy and the business can earn a few more billion dollars and go up in the ranking of Forbes. Of course, these "scheduled" devaluation leads to higher prices in Russia, falling living standards of ordinary people, reducing their motivation to work.Ezheosennyuyu another devaluation of the ruble, and we are seeing now, but, in contrast to previous years, the consequences can be much sadder, "- said Suzdaltsev.First, as the expert notes, the global economy continues to fall, leading to an increase in the number of unemployed in the world, and Russia is no exception. Therefore devalue its eternal companion - hyperinflation in general inevitable rise in unemployment, is fraught with the growth of social protest in Russia. "Actually, all the rebellion and revolution (the victorious rebellion) in our country and began - with a sharp devaluation of the ruble and a sharp rise in prices," - reminds Suzdaltsev.Second, he points out, we have seen a sharp increase in social protest in connection with the activities of December 4, 2011 and March 4, 2012, called the parliamentary and presidential elections. Have formed protest groups with their leaders. Devaluation will give these groups a sharp increase in social base, they are easy to collect all the hungry and unemployed people on the march of millions, and forbid them indefinitely - will not work.Third, adds Suzdaltsev already obvious - another devaluation may lead to the disintegration of the Russian Federation in the same way as a botched currency reform Pavlova in January-April 1991 led to the collapse of the USSR in December of 1991. Regional leaders to stay in power in a social protest, can claim to leave the Russian Federation as well as it did Johar Dudayev, September 6, 1991, exactly 21 years ago, when he announced the seizure of power in their hands in connection with the release of the Chechen- Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of the Soviet Union. New devaluation, hyperinflation may give rise to new applications of this kind, says Suzdaltsev."I hope that the leadership of the country's survival instinct will prevail over other interests, and the Bank of Russia will reduce the cost of the currency basket. I am sure that this move will help stabilize the economic and political situation in Russia ", - the expert concludes.© 2012, "New Region - Moscow"-------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------Chronic devaluation of the ruble, as a source of enrichment and the impoverishment of the people of the oligarchyOf commodity currencies fell only rubleOn Tuesday morning, the Russian currency has continued to fall, while other commodity currencies adjusted for Forex. So, from 6:15 to 10:00 MSK MSK major commodity currencies: Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar - rising against the U.S. dollar.The leader of the New Zealand dollar was a rebound, went up over the period by 3.9%. Behind him was the Australian dollar, 3.2% won back their losses against the U.S. dollar. "Canadian" rose by only 0.8%. However, the Russian ruble and the opening of the trading session on Forex demonstrated impressive gap in the direction of reducing by 1.55% (from 28.9 rubles. To 29.35 rubles.).So in the morning, the Russian currency was the only one among the commodity currencies, which, under the pressure of external factors fell sharply, while other commodity currencies win back their positions.
According to the dynamics of the ruble (which fall looks excessive even for the current adverse conditions), as well as out of sync with the other commodity currencies, the Russian ruble is subjected to speculative attacks, and the response rate on the landslide falling stock markets and oil could be due to the large amount of foreign exchange carry trade , along with the outflow of capital from the Russian financial assets due to increased risks.However, the Russian central bank does not take as long as the active intervention steps to stabilize the situation on the currency market. Regulation until the situation is reduced to expand the currency exchange MICEX upper bounds for dollar and euro (border on August 9 it was extended twice.) In our opinion, the Central Bank does not take active steps to isolate the shock in the stock markets by weakening the exchange rate to maintain domestic liquidity at the time of the fall in oil prices and a collapse in foreign markets.According to experts interviewed by RBC, the Central Bank allows ruble devaluation especially due to the fact that the exchange rate has an impact on stock indexes, creating a significant difference in the dynamics of the ruble-denominated MICEX Index and RTS dollar. For example, at 13:30 MSK MICEX index was down 6.37%, while the collapse of the RTS index was stronger - at 8.05% due to the effects of currency.Analysts said Deutsche Bank, on the eve of the ruble depreciated against the currency basket, and against the dollar to levels seen in the I quarter of 2011. Decline of the ruble was associated with a significant drop in oil prices and risk aversion, which has led to an outflow of capital from emerging markets. Central Bank, however, remained true to a more flexible exchange rate and did not carry out large-scale intervention to limit the growth of the dollar. According to analysts of Deutsche Bank, continued capital outflow due to sales in the equity markets could trigger a further fall in the ruble.Elena HrupovaQuote.rbc.ruRead more: http://top.rbc.ru/economics/09/08/2011/609556.shtmlChronic devaluation
Bank of Russia raised the official rate of the dollar and the euro
Trading session on the Russian currency market is being held under the sign of the weakening of the national currency of the Russian Federation in relation to the dollar, the euro and the currency basket. Especially strong European currency fell today, while the dollar quotes changed slightly.Official euro rate established by the Bank of Russia for tomorrow, rose 28 cents to $ 42.64 Rs. / Euro. The official exchange rate rose by 5 cents and was fixed at £ 30.99.Currently, the U.S. currency is trading at around 31 rubles. - By 1 penny above the previous trading day closing. One euro on the domestic market give 42.63 rubles. - 18 cents higher than the close of trading yesterday.Currency basket trading at 36.22 rubles. - Virtually unchanged compared with the previous close of the trading day.Experts point out that the behavior of the ruble on the domestic currency market follows the movements in the market FOREX, where today, after the decision of the EU and the IMF to provide financial assistance to Ireland, the rise of the euro. To date, the euro has risen in price by 0.42% - up to 1.3743 dollars. / Euro.November 22, 2010.As you can see the song is the same as one year and two and three and ten years ago.
Dear ruble was a "mistake"
Strengthening of the ruble recognized "error." This was stated by the Minister of Finance, Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin. According to the minister, to strengthen the ruble contributed to "reduce our competitiveness, the competitiveness of our domestic economy."Kudrin said that the ruble was in vain. "We made the most profound strengthening of the currency of the" big twenty. "This is the first major sign of our (raw) dependence" - quoted Kudrin news agency.At the same time Kudrin believes that it was necessary to devalue the ruble is stronger than it was at the beginning of the crisis. "The measures we have taken have been half-hearted," - he said.The last phrase - home. From May 2008 to January, the Russian national currency dived from level 24 rubles per dollar by around 36 rubles. The bulk of its fall at the time was called "gradual devaluation."Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin later explained that the ruble could bring down more sharply, but "imagine what would have been a panic in Moscow, exchangers?" - He exclaimed.
Central Bank of Russia has accelerated devaluationOfficial Euro rate set by the Central Bank at 19 December amounted to 39.7798 rubles. Thus, during the day, the European currency has risen by more than a ruble, but could not overcome the mark of 40 rubles. To trading on the MICEX this psychologically important milestone was reached in the course of the trading session on December 18. Some Russian exchangers euro also exceeded 40 rubles.The official exchange rate for December 19 will be 27.6095 rubles. It's almost nine cents more than the previous day.Simultaneous increase in central bank dollar and the euro means that the corridor of fluctuations of currency basket (€ 0.45 and $ 0.55), in which the Central Bank held back the fall of the ruble was significantly expanded. What is its upper limit, is still unclear.The sharp appreciation of the euro in part due to the fact that the world market, the European currency continues to rise against the dollar. Only in the last few days she has strengthened by a few cents and is trading at $ 1.45.
Source: Lenta.ru
The purpose of the policy of the Central Bank:
1. Keep the reduction of gold reserves.But as you know, these measures did not stop the central bank reduced SG reserves. If on November 7, they were 475.4 billion dollars, on December 5 - 437 billion.2. Saving income exporters of hydrocarbons and metals, and in the fall in prices for oil and metals, due to lower labor costs in the country.The three largest oil producer in Russia - "Rosneft", "Lukoil" and "Gazprom oil" - reported record profits received in the first nine months of 2008. Last did a subsidiary of "Gazprom" - according to the company, the first three quarters, net income was $ 5.2 billion, which is 84.5 percent more than during the same time last year. Proceeds of "Gazprom oil" has risen by 86 percent to 27.32 billion dollars.Despite a significant increase in net income, "Gazprom oil" is still not able to overtake on this indicator of its competitors. In early December, "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" reported that their net profit was 10.76 and $ 10.3 billion.3. The decrease in real spending on state social programs already designated by cheaper rate.
How to save the state's social programs, by cheapening the ruble should it ever be clear at the beginning of next year.
The fact that such a trivial puzzle solves today Central Bank, confirmed the information about the high profits of oil companies.
The devaluation of the Russian oil brought 800 billion rubles
The weakening of the ruble against the dollar and euro has brought Russian oil in August 2008, about 800 billion rubles. About this newspaper "Vedomosti".
According to "Rosneft", which results in the publication, for oil exporters increase dollar per ruble is increase the price of fuel at five dollars. According to the vice-president of "Rosneft" Peter O'Brien, given the devaluation and export duties align the company is working "at a cost of about $ 70 per barrel."
Recall, the devaluation of the Russian currency held by the Central Bank in November 2008. At that time, the value of currency basket (€ 0.45 and $ 0.55) was a little more than 30 rubles. However, in early 2009, the price was more than 40 rubles.
February 12, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a government meeting on the development of the oil industry, said that the tax burden on domestic oil has dropped by 500 billion rubles. In part this was due to the reduction of export duties on oil, which from 1 January 2009 fell to 100.9 dollars. Last summer the duty rate reached $ 495 per ton.Source: Lenta.ru
Journalists lured a pretext for the devaluation of the ruble, with a true interest, and now wonder: why devaluation is not brought the promised results.
Devaluation is not in store
09/04/09
Government forecasts that the fall of the national currency will increase the competitiveness of Russian goods, not true. Working mainly on imported raw materials from the devaluation of the domestic industry has lost onlyMonetary authorities assured and just what it is they devalue and all of it will be after the well. It turns out that they are not carried out, and there's nothing good on the devaluation of the ruble, and even the opposite ...
Prosherstili all posts recently - is not any evidence that devaluation has helped to a particular industry, a particular production. Spell: "fall of the national currency enhances competitiveness of national products" - does not work. But there is a perfect example of another devaluation impact than the government promised us exorcists.The first major victim of the famous - "Izhavto." Buy car sets to build the Korean KIA became unprofitable. Five thousand workers laid off. Analysts expect that there will be a TagAZ and plant JSC "Sollers" who also works on a similar basis.Favorite of all the Russian authorities since the Politburo - "AvtoVAZ" is also suffering from the fall of the ruble. He and before the planned purchases for the "Kalina" automatic transmission up to 20% of the parts - imported, so that the plant can not raise the price of the car. Now he also receives state aid and increases prices.Okay, automotive. But of all branches of the groans are heard, because all depend on whether the import of equipment and raw materials there.Now, it would seem, where possible breakthrough domestic producer after falling ruble, if not in the cosmetics and perfume? Incomes have fallen, surely people will pay attention to the domestic oil and creams ... But no. As a share of domestic companies in the market of more than $ 9 billion third, and remains. And well, that has not yet fallen. Yet. About 80% of the raw materials used by our factories - also imports. This means that they are forced to raise prices for their products. While the foreign corporations have far more opportunities to control their prices than ours. Because of some 150 Russian manufacturers is dominated by small production, and that before the increase in raw material prices are staggering expense. And now that the credit for the purchase of the raw materials can not be obtained, are on the verge of bankruptcy ...
http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2009/04/09_a_2971869.shtml
The devaluation of the Russian banks helped earn 900 billion rubles
Russian banks due to the devaluation of the ruble could earn from November 2008 to January 2009, around 800-900 billion rubles. This statement was made deputy director of the State Corporation Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA), Andrei Melnikov, reports "Interfax". "I think that this margin of safety, we can safely block or two still live," - said Melnikov.Gradual devaluation of the Russian currency held by the Central Bank in mid-November last year and was completed in January of this year. During this time, the ruble against the currency basket ($ 0.55 and € 0.45) decreased by 40 percent.Due to the devaluation of the 30 largest Russian banks, which account for 80 percent of total assets, were able to increase their income the January is almost two times compared to the same month of 2008. In addition, in late February, it was reported that the devaluation of the Russian oil brought in August 2008, about 800 billion rubles.In early February, the Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin admitted for devaluation of the ruble. According to him, the domestic banks and companies were able to book a $ 85 billion to service its foreign currency debt, and now they have enough money to meet its obligations on foreign loans in the coming year.
Source: Lenta.ruContemporary ArchiveWho prevents strong dollar?
Look through the press about the meeting with Putin A. Kudrin and headache: what is it they say? Just do not get it. It seems that many journalists, describing the meeting, did not understand."Too strong ruble, according to the president, could undermine the competitiveness of the national economy" - the newspaper "Kommersant".How could undermine the national economy strong dollar? Strong, I take them used expression, might cut income commodity monopolies supplying hydrocarbons to the world market, but does not undermine, but rather to strengthen the position of producers in other industries. Americans recently do everything to strengthen the dollar, realizing that this is the basis of stable existence of American manufacturers. And here, it turns out, the opposite is true.
Putin's statement on the inarticulate, Kudrin has Bole confusing answers: "Basic steps to prevent building - responsible Alexei Kudrin - is government measures, but as soon as the government increases its spending by oil and gas revenues, it threatens further strengthening. As part of the forecast, which we have prepared, we can keep the planned parameters of reinforcement. "Kudrin would stick to a single coordinate system, and no claim is contrary to the statement. MPs and the people, he said that the additional costs will cause inflation, and therefore need to be reduced and, in this case, the increase in costs due to oil revenues, according to the minister, there will be the strengthening of the ruble. How will strengthen? After all, the costs will be made in rubles, not dollars, and so will increase the mass of the ruble in relation to the goods, and the same dollar, which respectively reduce the real value of the ruble, and will not strengthen.
Journalists, "Vedomosti" Petrachkova Alexander, Alexander Bekker, and assessed the situation: "Strengthening of the ruble could threaten the economy, especially the real sector, said Vladimir Putin. Therefore Finance and the Central Bank will have to simultaneously fight inflation and the appreciation."
It seems that the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank officials, who had taken too eager to fight inflation, at the request of the president, came on corn commodity giants, but so painful that Vladimir Putin himself, undertook to maintain inflation.
"The president asked urgently to slow down the national currency" - gives "News Time", "Putin instructed to slow down the ruble," - says Larisa Kaftan in "Komsomolskaya Pravda".
That appreciation, unprofitable commodity monopolies, and the president is concerned about this, Putin made no secret. The President said that he had met with representatives of large companies, "they still have a margin of safety," but the rapid strengthening of the ruble could create a problem for them. Their goods are becoming more expensive as compared to the import and lose global competition. How the government is going to save the day? "
And in the production, which commodities we compete, if 70% of our exports of raw materials?
"We must prevent the strengthening of the ruble by all available means!" - Selflessly and with joy, said the minister. And he was not pleased! After all this time, Kudrin did just that and, in favor of large monopolies, supplying the world market oil, gas, metals, wood, and so on. Well, now, he is also the president got support. So now the wait for the new price increase, because Kudrin will fight to the strengthening of the ruble with renewed vigor.
There is no doubt that Putin is inclined to the direction of commodity monopolies. This is the only way to characterize the President's statement, made at a meeting with Minister of Finance Kudrin. Six months ago, the president set the goal to strengthen the ruble, reduce inflation, convertibility of the ruble, and now, under pressure from the owners of raw moguls, turns the entire policy in the opposite direction.
"As it turned out after" contacts with the business, "a policy of strengthening of the ruble could hurt the Russian economy. - The newspaper" Vedomosti ". - And now to the Central Bank and the government, in fact, set the triple objective: to prevent inflation, to keep the ruble and still increase state spending. With such input should expect interesting political season. If you do not resign, serious failures are guaranteed: the task set by the President, is not feasible.The situation will remain a stalemate, if not eliminate one of the three tasks - subject only two introductory equation can be solved. ""To strengthen the ruble to the Russian authorities was convenient to suppress inflation. But now that the president ordered not to do so, before the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank raises extremely difficult task - not to strengthen the ruble, and the price increases to fight. - Asks blankly, "Izvestia". - So, forward inflation. "
Under the pressure of interest raw material monopolies sag not only the president, but also the government, which has developed a three-year plan to reduce the revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons. For three years the share of extraction tax (MET) and export duties in the budget revenues will be reduced from 50% to 30%. "This, according to Kudrin, and there is a way to reduce the budget's dependence on oil prices.
Here, only the oil tycoons and their lobbyists in the government, as we see no way afraid of its dependence on oil revenues, and not to pump oil and generously thank their benefactors.
Ivan Tevrizsky23/08/2006
MOSCOW, September 05 (New Region, Anastasia Smirnova) - The Bank of Russia conducts regular scheduled devaluation of the Russian ruble in the interests of commodity exporters. According to Deputy Director General "Kalita-Finance" Igor Suzdaltsev, in present conditions, this situation threatens to become very negative consequences for the entire country - Russia may fall to pieces.According to experts, the Bank of Russia to reduce the cost of the currency basket to 33 rubles (now it costs almost 36 rubles - approx. "HP"). He points out that the rate of the Russian ruble is regulated via two-currency basket as operational indicator intraday Bank of Russia. Works is simple - when the management of Bank of Russia raises the cost of the currency basket, which consists of 0.55 U.S. dollars and 0.45 of the euro, dealers in Russia are beginning to buy the dollar and the euro. In the trend followed by the central bank and dealers of commercial banks, investment companies, private investors, etc.
"Every fall, the Bank of Russia began actively to raise the value of currency basket and buy the dollar and the euro in rubles to raise rates of foreign currencies against the ruble and thus provide commodity exporters (public and private), the maximum revenue from the sale of their foreign exchange earnings. In this case, the oligarchs of the bureaucracy and the business can earn a few more billion dollars and go up in the ranking of Forbes. Of course, these "scheduled" devaluation leads to higher prices in Russia, falling living standards of ordinary people, reducing their motivation to work.Ezheosennyuyu another devaluation of the ruble, and we are seeing now, but, in contrast to previous years, the consequences can be much sadder, "- said Suzdaltsev.First, as the expert notes, the global economy continues to fall, leading to an increase in the number of unemployed in the world, and Russia is no exception. Therefore devalue its eternal companion - hyperinflation in general inevitable rise in unemployment, is fraught with the growth of social protest in Russia. "Actually, all the rebellion and revolution (the victorious rebellion) in our country and began - with a sharp devaluation of the ruble and a sharp rise in prices," - reminds Suzdaltsev.Second, he points out, we have seen a sharp increase in social protest in connection with the activities of December 4, 2011 and March 4, 2012, called the parliamentary and presidential elections. Have formed protest groups with their leaders. Devaluation will give these groups a sharp increase in social base, they are easy to collect all the hungry and unemployed people on the march of millions, and forbid them indefinitely - will not work.Third, adds Suzdaltsev already obvious - another devaluation may lead to the disintegration of the Russian Federation in the same way as a botched currency reform Pavlova in January-April 1991 led to the collapse of the USSR in December of 1991. Regional leaders to stay in power in a social protest, can claim to leave the Russian Federation as well as it did Johar Dudayev, September 6, 1991, exactly 21 years ago, when he announced the seizure of power in their hands in connection with the release of the Chechen- Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of the Soviet Union. New devaluation, hyperinflation may give rise to new applications of this kind, says Suzdaltsev."I hope that the leadership of the country's survival instinct will prevail over other interests, and the Bank of Russia will reduce the cost of the currency basket. I am sure that this move will help stabilize the economic and political situation in Russia ", - the expert concludes.© 2012, "New Region - Moscow"-------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------Chronic devaluation of the ruble, as a source of enrichment and the impoverishment of the people of the oligarchyOf commodity currencies fell only rubleOn Tuesday morning, the Russian currency has continued to fall, while other commodity currencies adjusted for Forex. So, from 6:15 to 10:00 MSK MSK major commodity currencies: Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar - rising against the U.S. dollar.The leader of the New Zealand dollar was a rebound, went up over the period by 3.9%. Behind him was the Australian dollar, 3.2% won back their losses against the U.S. dollar. "Canadian" rose by only 0.8%. However, the Russian ruble and the opening of the trading session on Forex demonstrated impressive gap in the direction of reducing by 1.55% (from 28.9 rubles. To 29.35 rubles.).So in the morning, the Russian currency was the only one among the commodity currencies, which, under the pressure of external factors fell sharply, while other commodity currencies win back their positions.
According to the dynamics of the ruble (which fall looks excessive even for the current adverse conditions), as well as out of sync with the other commodity currencies, the Russian ruble is subjected to speculative attacks, and the response rate on the landslide falling stock markets and oil could be due to the large amount of foreign exchange carry trade , along with the outflow of capital from the Russian financial assets due to increased risks.However, the Russian central bank does not take as long as the active intervention steps to stabilize the situation on the currency market. Regulation until the situation is reduced to expand the currency exchange MICEX upper bounds for dollar and euro (border on August 9 it was extended twice.) In our opinion, the Central Bank does not take active steps to isolate the shock in the stock markets by weakening the exchange rate to maintain domestic liquidity at the time of the fall in oil prices and a collapse in foreign markets.According to experts interviewed by RBC, the Central Bank allows ruble devaluation especially due to the fact that the exchange rate has an impact on stock indexes, creating a significant difference in the dynamics of the ruble-denominated MICEX Index and RTS dollar. For example, at 13:30 MSK MICEX index was down 6.37%, while the collapse of the RTS index was stronger - at 8.05% due to the effects of currency.Analysts said Deutsche Bank, on the eve of the ruble depreciated against the currency basket, and against the dollar to levels seen in the I quarter of 2011. Decline of the ruble was associated with a significant drop in oil prices and risk aversion, which has led to an outflow of capital from emerging markets. Central Bank, however, remained true to a more flexible exchange rate and did not carry out large-scale intervention to limit the growth of the dollar. According to analysts of Deutsche Bank, continued capital outflow due to sales in the equity markets could trigger a further fall in the ruble.Elena HrupovaQuote.rbc.ruRead more: http://top.rbc.ru/economics/09/08/2011/609556.shtmlChronic devaluation
Bank of Russia raised the official rate of the dollar and the euro
Trading session on the Russian currency market is being held under the sign of the weakening of the national currency of the Russian Federation in relation to the dollar, the euro and the currency basket. Especially strong European currency fell today, while the dollar quotes changed slightly.Official euro rate established by the Bank of Russia for tomorrow, rose 28 cents to $ 42.64 Rs. / Euro. The official exchange rate rose by 5 cents and was fixed at £ 30.99.Currently, the U.S. currency is trading at around 31 rubles. - By 1 penny above the previous trading day closing. One euro on the domestic market give 42.63 rubles. - 18 cents higher than the close of trading yesterday.Currency basket trading at 36.22 rubles. - Virtually unchanged compared with the previous close of the trading day.Experts point out that the behavior of the ruble on the domestic currency market follows the movements in the market FOREX, where today, after the decision of the EU and the IMF to provide financial assistance to Ireland, the rise of the euro. To date, the euro has risen in price by 0.42% - up to 1.3743 dollars. / Euro.November 22, 2010.As you can see the song is the same as one year and two and three and ten years ago.
Dear ruble was a "mistake"
Strengthening of the ruble recognized "error." This was stated by the Minister of Finance, Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin. According to the minister, to strengthen the ruble contributed to "reduce our competitiveness, the competitiveness of our domestic economy."Kudrin said that the ruble was in vain. "We made the most profound strengthening of the currency of the" big twenty. "This is the first major sign of our (raw) dependence" - quoted Kudrin news agency.At the same time Kudrin believes that it was necessary to devalue the ruble is stronger than it was at the beginning of the crisis. "The measures we have taken have been half-hearted," - he said.The last phrase - home. From May 2008 to January, the Russian national currency dived from level 24 rubles per dollar by around 36 rubles. The bulk of its fall at the time was called "gradual devaluation."Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin later explained that the ruble could bring down more sharply, but "imagine what would have been a panic in Moscow, exchangers?" - He exclaimed.
Central Bank of Russia has accelerated devaluationOfficial Euro rate set by the Central Bank at 19 December amounted to 39.7798 rubles. Thus, during the day, the European currency has risen by more than a ruble, but could not overcome the mark of 40 rubles. To trading on the MICEX this psychologically important milestone was reached in the course of the trading session on December 18. Some Russian exchangers euro also exceeded 40 rubles.The official exchange rate for December 19 will be 27.6095 rubles. It's almost nine cents more than the previous day.Simultaneous increase in central bank dollar and the euro means that the corridor of fluctuations of currency basket (€ 0.45 and $ 0.55), in which the Central Bank held back the fall of the ruble was significantly expanded. What is its upper limit, is still unclear.The sharp appreciation of the euro in part due to the fact that the world market, the European currency continues to rise against the dollar. Only in the last few days she has strengthened by a few cents and is trading at $ 1.45.
Source: Lenta.ru
The purpose of the policy of the Central Bank:
1. Keep the reduction of gold reserves.But as you know, these measures did not stop the central bank reduced SG reserves. If on November 7, they were 475.4 billion dollars, on December 5 - 437 billion.2. Saving income exporters of hydrocarbons and metals, and in the fall in prices for oil and metals, due to lower labor costs in the country.The three largest oil producer in Russia - "Rosneft", "Lukoil" and "Gazprom oil" - reported record profits received in the first nine months of 2008. Last did a subsidiary of "Gazprom" - according to the company, the first three quarters, net income was $ 5.2 billion, which is 84.5 percent more than during the same time last year. Proceeds of "Gazprom oil" has risen by 86 percent to 27.32 billion dollars.Despite a significant increase in net income, "Gazprom oil" is still not able to overtake on this indicator of its competitors. In early December, "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" reported that their net profit was 10.76 and $ 10.3 billion.3. The decrease in real spending on state social programs already designated by cheaper rate.
How to save the state's social programs, by cheapening the ruble should it ever be clear at the beginning of next year.
The fact that such a trivial puzzle solves today Central Bank, confirmed the information about the high profits of oil companies.
The devaluation of the Russian oil brought 800 billion rubles
The weakening of the ruble against the dollar and euro has brought Russian oil in August 2008, about 800 billion rubles. About this newspaper "Vedomosti".
According to "Rosneft", which results in the publication, for oil exporters increase dollar per ruble is increase the price of fuel at five dollars. According to the vice-president of "Rosneft" Peter O'Brien, given the devaluation and export duties align the company is working "at a cost of about $ 70 per barrel."
Recall, the devaluation of the Russian currency held by the Central Bank in November 2008. At that time, the value of currency basket (€ 0.45 and $ 0.55) was a little more than 30 rubles. However, in early 2009, the price was more than 40 rubles.
February 12, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a government meeting on the development of the oil industry, said that the tax burden on domestic oil has dropped by 500 billion rubles. In part this was due to the reduction of export duties on oil, which from 1 January 2009 fell to 100.9 dollars. Last summer the duty rate reached $ 495 per ton.Source: Lenta.ru
Journalists lured a pretext for the devaluation of the ruble, with a true interest, and now wonder: why devaluation is not brought the promised results.
Devaluation is not in store
09/04/09
Government forecasts that the fall of the national currency will increase the competitiveness of Russian goods, not true. Working mainly on imported raw materials from the devaluation of the domestic industry has lost onlyMonetary authorities assured and just what it is they devalue and all of it will be after the well. It turns out that they are not carried out, and there's nothing good on the devaluation of the ruble, and even the opposite ...
Prosherstili all posts recently - is not any evidence that devaluation has helped to a particular industry, a particular production. Spell: "fall of the national currency enhances competitiveness of national products" - does not work. But there is a perfect example of another devaluation impact than the government promised us exorcists.The first major victim of the famous - "Izhavto." Buy car sets to build the Korean KIA became unprofitable. Five thousand workers laid off. Analysts expect that there will be a TagAZ and plant JSC "Sollers" who also works on a similar basis.Favorite of all the Russian authorities since the Politburo - "AvtoVAZ" is also suffering from the fall of the ruble. He and before the planned purchases for the "Kalina" automatic transmission up to 20% of the parts - imported, so that the plant can not raise the price of the car. Now he also receives state aid and increases prices.Okay, automotive. But of all branches of the groans are heard, because all depend on whether the import of equipment and raw materials there.Now, it would seem, where possible breakthrough domestic producer after falling ruble, if not in the cosmetics and perfume? Incomes have fallen, surely people will pay attention to the domestic oil and creams ... But no. As a share of domestic companies in the market of more than $ 9 billion third, and remains. And well, that has not yet fallen. Yet. About 80% of the raw materials used by our factories - also imports. This means that they are forced to raise prices for their products. While the foreign corporations have far more opportunities to control their prices than ours. Because of some 150 Russian manufacturers is dominated by small production, and that before the increase in raw material prices are staggering expense. And now that the credit for the purchase of the raw materials can not be obtained, are on the verge of bankruptcy ...
http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2009/04/09_a_2971869.shtml
The devaluation of the Russian banks helped earn 900 billion rubles
Russian banks due to the devaluation of the ruble could earn from November 2008 to January 2009, around 800-900 billion rubles. This statement was made deputy director of the State Corporation Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA), Andrei Melnikov, reports "Interfax". "I think that this margin of safety, we can safely block or two still live," - said Melnikov.Gradual devaluation of the Russian currency held by the Central Bank in mid-November last year and was completed in January of this year. During this time, the ruble against the currency basket ($ 0.55 and € 0.45) decreased by 40 percent.Due to the devaluation of the 30 largest Russian banks, which account for 80 percent of total assets, were able to increase their income the January is almost two times compared to the same month of 2008. In addition, in late February, it was reported that the devaluation of the Russian oil brought in August 2008, about 800 billion rubles.In early February, the Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin admitted for devaluation of the ruble. According to him, the domestic banks and companies were able to book a $ 85 billion to service its foreign currency debt, and now they have enough money to meet its obligations on foreign loans in the coming year.
Source: Lenta.ruContemporary ArchiveWho prevents strong dollar?
Look through the press about the meeting with Putin A. Kudrin and headache: what is it they say? Just do not get it. It seems that many journalists, describing the meeting, did not understand."Too strong ruble, according to the president, could undermine the competitiveness of the national economy" - the newspaper "Kommersant".How could undermine the national economy strong dollar? Strong, I take them used expression, might cut income commodity monopolies supplying hydrocarbons to the world market, but does not undermine, but rather to strengthen the position of producers in other industries. Americans recently do everything to strengthen the dollar, realizing that this is the basis of stable existence of American manufacturers. And here, it turns out, the opposite is true.
Putin's statement on the inarticulate, Kudrin has Bole confusing answers: "Basic steps to prevent building - responsible Alexei Kudrin - is government measures, but as soon as the government increases its spending by oil and gas revenues, it threatens further strengthening. As part of the forecast, which we have prepared, we can keep the planned parameters of reinforcement. "Kudrin would stick to a single coordinate system, and no claim is contrary to the statement. MPs and the people, he said that the additional costs will cause inflation, and therefore need to be reduced and, in this case, the increase in costs due to oil revenues, according to the minister, there will be the strengthening of the ruble. How will strengthen? After all, the costs will be made in rubles, not dollars, and so will increase the mass of the ruble in relation to the goods, and the same dollar, which respectively reduce the real value of the ruble, and will not strengthen.
Journalists, "Vedomosti" Petrachkova Alexander, Alexander Bekker, and assessed the situation: "Strengthening of the ruble could threaten the economy, especially the real sector, said Vladimir Putin. Therefore Finance and the Central Bank will have to simultaneously fight inflation and the appreciation."
It seems that the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank officials, who had taken too eager to fight inflation, at the request of the president, came on corn commodity giants, but so painful that Vladimir Putin himself, undertook to maintain inflation.
"The president asked urgently to slow down the national currency" - gives "News Time", "Putin instructed to slow down the ruble," - says Larisa Kaftan in "Komsomolskaya Pravda".
That appreciation, unprofitable commodity monopolies, and the president is concerned about this, Putin made no secret. The President said that he had met with representatives of large companies, "they still have a margin of safety," but the rapid strengthening of the ruble could create a problem for them. Their goods are becoming more expensive as compared to the import and lose global competition. How the government is going to save the day? "
And in the production, which commodities we compete, if 70% of our exports of raw materials?
"We must prevent the strengthening of the ruble by all available means!" - Selflessly and with joy, said the minister. And he was not pleased! After all this time, Kudrin did just that and, in favor of large monopolies, supplying the world market oil, gas, metals, wood, and so on. Well, now, he is also the president got support. So now the wait for the new price increase, because Kudrin will fight to the strengthening of the ruble with renewed vigor.
There is no doubt that Putin is inclined to the direction of commodity monopolies. This is the only way to characterize the President's statement, made at a meeting with Minister of Finance Kudrin. Six months ago, the president set the goal to strengthen the ruble, reduce inflation, convertibility of the ruble, and now, under pressure from the owners of raw moguls, turns the entire policy in the opposite direction.
"As it turned out after" contacts with the business, "a policy of strengthening of the ruble could hurt the Russian economy. - The newspaper" Vedomosti ". - And now to the Central Bank and the government, in fact, set the triple objective: to prevent inflation, to keep the ruble and still increase state spending. With such input should expect interesting political season. If you do not resign, serious failures are guaranteed: the task set by the President, is not feasible.The situation will remain a stalemate, if not eliminate one of the three tasks - subject only two introductory equation can be solved. ""To strengthen the ruble to the Russian authorities was convenient to suppress inflation. But now that the president ordered not to do so, before the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank raises extremely difficult task - not to strengthen the ruble, and the price increases to fight. - Asks blankly, "Izvestia". - So, forward inflation. "
Under the pressure of interest raw material monopolies sag not only the president, but also the government, which has developed a three-year plan to reduce the revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons. For three years the share of extraction tax (MET) and export duties in the budget revenues will be reduced from 50% to 30%. "This, according to Kudrin, and there is a way to reduce the budget's dependence on oil prices.
Here, only the oil tycoons and their lobbyists in the government, as we see no way afraid of its dependence on oil revenues, and not to pump oil and generously thank their benefactors.
Ivan Tevrizsky23/08/2006
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