Elvira : annual inflation in Russia could reach 5,8-6,1 % by mid-year
14.02.2014, 16:03 | « BBC »
Annual inflation in Russia could reach 5,8-6,1 % by the middle of this year , but it will happen after slowing to 5% by the end of the year from the current level of 6.1 % , RIA "Novosti" with reference to the statement of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina .
"We proceed from the fact that inflation in the first half of the year will be between 5,8-6,1 % by the end of the year to reach the level of 5% ," - said Elvira .
According to the Central Bank, on February 10 this year, the annual inflation rate was 6.1 %. In 2013, prices rose by 6.5%. Economic Development Ministry official forecast for inflation in 2014 is 4.5-5.5 % with 4.8% reference point , but due to the weakening of the ruble possible adjustment to 5.2-5.3 %.
Central Bank also believes that the ruble is undervalued given the state of the current operations of the course .
The Bank of Russia is not involved in the rise in prices, since it is not the ruble falls , and the price of food is increasing .
Invincible and uncontrollable inflation
Inflation in Russia since the beginning of the year exceeded two percentPrices in Russia since the beginning of the year increased by 2.1 percent . This is stated in the official press release of Rosstat.According to Rosstat , a week from 9 to 15 February 2010, inflation in the country was 0.2 per cent , and since the beginning of this month - 0.4 percent. A year earlier, in general, in February prices rose 1.7 percent.In the second decade of February 2010 in Russia grew stronger all vegetables - by 1.3 percent . Buckwheat, cheese, dairy products rose in price by 1,1-2,6 percent. Pork , pasta , chicken and wheat flour , by contrast, fell by 0.1-0.3 percent.According to government forecasts , inflation in Russia in 2010 will be 6.5-7.5 percent. In 2009, the rise in prices in the country was 8.8 percent, significantly decreased in comparison with 2008 (13.3 per cent ) . The reason was the crisis seriously reduce demand for many commodities .February 16 , Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised that in the next few years, Russia will be able to enter the European inflation figures - 3-5 percent. In 2009, in the EU , prices rose by an average of 1.4 percent.
When you read the statements of members of the Government and Ministry of Finance officials on combating inflation, can not escape the feeling of running in place. They are all fighting , doing " incredible " effort , and inflation all upsets and overturns their forecasts.
Judge for yourself .
In early 2006, we read in the newspaper "Vedomosti":
"The government can not keep inflation within the planned range . During the first half of February , prices rose by 0 , 8 % , and by the end of the month , inflation could reach 1 , 2%, economists predict . According ambitious forecast of Economic Development, the rise in prices in 2006 should not be over 7 5-8 %. But the January statistics put this task into question ... In the first two weeks of February, inflation stood at 0 , 8 % , said yesterday Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov . In February last year, prices rose by 1, 2 %.
According to the published data of Economic Development, in February inflation may reach 1.3-1.5 % , and by the end of the first two months of the year - is 3.9%. It seems that 9 per cent annual growth plank prices established in the budget as much as we can be overcome much earlier period.
Seeing that the situation goes out of control, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has accused the government of carrying out a weak financial policy. In response, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov accuses the Minister of Finance in the global savings glut of money that " desperately needed in the energy sector ." " And there is no smell inflation ," - said the head of government .
" When the government approves the budget for the current year (2006) we were promised to keep a tight rein on inflation . And not let go for 8, 5 % for all of 2006 . Moreover, puffing out his cheeks , officials said that they are quite capable 2008 to drive it into the framework of 3 - 4%. Alas, it took only two months , and stubborn inflation wiped nose our financial authorities : defeated half of their annual plan "- writes the correspondent of the newspaper " Komsomolskaya Pravda " Valery Bhutan.
It took a half years , and we once again hear the government struggles with inflation, which also successfully overcomes these hapless wrestlers.
Inflation, which so vain , "fights" the Finance Ministry is not reduced. Second consecutive month, prices are rising faster than in 2006, the Finance Ministry and members of the government hastily looking for excuses higher prices and the depreciation of the ruble , not wanting to look in the mirror .
Ministry of Finance believes that the summer will help rectify the situation deflation, which depends on the harvest .
"The Central Bank could not tear inflation on oil prices ," writes "Gazeta" .
" ... Responsible for the project of monetary policy yesterday had the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev . To soften hawkish deputies first thing he told me how hard it is to work to the Central Bank ." Central Bank forecasts inflation of 5.2 % , and up to year - at around 8 %. Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank takes credit for the influx failed to sterilize.
One of the reasons for its rapid growth , according to the Central Bank deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev - a record inflow of capital. Money supply for the year , including in April , rose by 57.3 %. For such money growth May inflation figures are quite low , says Oksana Osipova of the Center for Development , much more influenced by inflation in May rise in prices for fruit and vegetables - 7.8% ( 2.6 % last year ) . "Nobody thought it would be such a drastic leap " - the economist said the bank "Trust" Yevgeny Nadorshin . Non-food goods and services became more expensive in May moderate , but rising prices for construction materials : cement - by 5.4% , on a brick - by 4.6%. Officials still expect that inflation in 2007 will keep within 8 % (in 2006 it was 9%). Ministry of Finance believes that the summer will help rectify the situation deflation .
"Kommersant "
"The pace of price growth accelerated " ( Alexey Shapovalov ) : " The government hopes that they will stop deflation . Yesterday, Rosstat reported on the acceleration of inflation in May 2007 , when the average price growth rate increased by 0.02 % against 0.015% in May 2006 . Central Bank predicts convergence of price growth from last year . Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin still hopes that inflationary government plan in 2007 will be executed if his expectations are met in the autumn of deflation . "
Our officials are constantly explaining the causes of inflation and rising prices , and if it does not rise in oil prices , the inflow of capital , unless the inflow of capital, the growth of wages , etc. , etc.
But who seek to achieve the desired result , he is looking for ways and who only means one finds an explanation.
And the acute power crisis , the more evident discrepancy between reality and reflection of this reality in the media. This discrepancy has become so obvious that even loyal to the government newspaper "Izvestia" spoke about this and published an article by Anna Kaledins " Food prices are rising faster than inflation ."
When announce the official inflation data , it is nothing but bewilderment they did not cause . - Outraged Kaledina - All we go shopping and see how prices are rising . Wallet emptied all swiftly , and the " paper " inflation each year falls . Very revealing in this sense has become the past week. We were informed that in June , prices rose by 1%. For summer rate is high, but not fatal . But at the same time the cost of the minimum set of products for June increased by 4.8% since the beginning of the year - by 13.1% . That explanation our bewilderment . "
"For example, in June the cost of the minimum food basket grew by almost 5 times more than inflation . Just to keep from starving Russians in June had to spend on food at least 1666.3 rubles (in Moscow - 2020.3 rubles) . "
Indignant falsity of official statistics , and telling readers how to find it difficult to live , even though they know so much about this , Kaledina told that " index " Big Mac " the dollar should cost 15 rubles."
So what? Should and should not . Here it would be worth Kaledins and try to understand the cause of this phenomenon. Who is interested in such a discrepancy value of the ruble , and who spins inflation , giving false figures ? But she chose to act in the spirit of his newspaper - what I see , I sing , afraid to call a spade a spade .
So what, then indignant , since truth and remains in tuna ? And just because silent about it , it is no longer tolerable.
From 1 to 22 October , inflation in Russia amounted to 1.3 %, from the beginning of the year prices rose by 8.9% , now their growth for the year may exceed 10% , according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin .
To fight inflation, Kudrin recalled , used export and import duties . By region , a wave of price fixing , the leading retail chains and manufacturers froze prices on six key items until 31 January . FAS filed in 17 regions of 40 cases . Measures have helped , says Kudrin : the second half of October rise in food prices slowed by half.
But core inflation continues to accelerate . In September, she was a record 1.6% in October, according to Kudrin estimated to grow by 1.5-2% .
Gazette
05.05.2010 11:35:15
Will not be cheaper
Central Bank promises surge of inflation
Eugene Arsyukhin
Prices will go up in the summer , said Thursday the Russian Central Bank. And while inflation is still low, the Central Bank want to take the last chance to help Russian companies . On April 30, the refinancing rate again reduced , so that the plants will be cheaper loans . When inflation will accelerate , will have to forget about these bounties .
If the crisis was any good , just in low inflation. What happened, what the government and the Central Bank have dreamed for many years. In 2008, prices rose by 13.3 %, in 2009 - just 8.8% . Some grumble - it could be less , as in Europe or the United States . But everything is relative . In the " fat zero " of such parameters could only dream . Then monopolists at times inflated prices that gasoline , then bread , then square meters living - and nothing but verbal condemnation, for them it was not. People will still buy , they reasoned . And people were buying , because their incomes have grown . Fueled inflation and housing prices , and " speculative" capital that exploded in the country , and ultimately - irresistibly rising prices for oil and other raw materials .
But regular crisis happened : incomes have declined, merchants began to beware of cranking the numbers on the price tags for no reason . Now the recession is over , loomed on the horizon and a new " era of fat ," but to get to it , we have to pay you.
On Thursday, the board of directors of the Central Bank lowered the refinancing rate , but promised that the second half of the inflation in Russia will begin to grow . Why "but" what 's the connection ? The fact that the low rate of refinancing helps take cheap loans .
Banks borrow from the Central Bank refinancing rate and resell these businesses money with some wrap . The lower the base rate , and the lower end . But the thing is that the rate reduction is possible only in conditions of low inflation . While she was abnormally low, so the Central Bank decided to use the latter, probably could help the domestic industry.
Rate has been reduced from today to 8%. And this is the thirteenth decline over the last year . The report of the Central Bank said that in April remained favorable dynamics of the consumer price index , " which creates the conditions for a reduction in interest rates of the Bank of Russia." It is really so . From 1 to 26 April , according to Rosstat , inflation was only 0.3%. This is nothing . In March, for the entire month accumulated 0.6% in April , therefore, would be even less.
If we calculate the annual inflation rate , then the January rate she would have received 8.1% , and now - around 6.5% or even less. Against this background, it is safe to do borrowed money cheaper and realized that the Central Bank.
But in the second half could start rising inflation, the central bank warns . In the future, the Central Bank will have to closely monitor the macroeconomic situation , and most importantly , to analyze how credit money affected the economy . The central bank did not go into the reasons for the possible growth of inflation in the future , although they are obvious. The crisis ended . In the pockets of money appeared . Demand revives .
More precisely, begin to revive . Rising incomes are already evident . Hotheads say they have almost caught up with the pre-crisis level (although many would disagree ) . Another thing that people spend money not yet ready - prefer to dig . According to the first quarter , the cost of buying grow twice slower than revenues . But it is up to the pores. The State encourages consumption. For example, put forward the scrapping program . Summer holidays will complete the picture. People relax , withdraw their money from deposits and will carry them into megamalls .
Here at this time shopping online and will increase the " cheat " . All this is covered more than once . Once people have money , traders begin to shoot superprofits . Most immoral in this situation - that the state struggled increases incomes , pension increases and the like, but because of the greed merchants lion's share of this increase is in the pockets of businessmen .
The rise in prices is beginning to assert itself . During the first quarter rose 12% utility services, which are much higher than the rate of inflation. Column headed , of course , gasoline - this versatile harbinger of change. Although in the first quarter and he fell from the first days of April began to go up. Here you have the first confirmation of dire predictions of the Central Bank .
Alexander Orlov , managing director of investment company " Arbat Capital " :
- I think inflation will rise . Partly because of the next refinance rate . But the main reason - to finally reach Russia increased earnings from rising prices for oil and gas . This will increase liquidity in the country. Which, of course , is not the best sign, but not the worst . The only thing that can prevent the growth of inflation - the collapse of the Greek economy . If Greece will default , it will be comparable with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Banks no longer lend money to each other , the money supply collapses . Plus, this will lower oil prices . All this will lead to a reduction in the economy and the strong devaluation.
Igor Nikolayev , director of the FBK Strategic Analysis Department :
- I think the central bank is right: inflation will accelerate . In fact, if there will be a change in the exchange rate (dollar would start to weaken and the dollar strengthened ), the Central Bank would be powerless. Increased rates of refinancing will not save , they will have to be reduced, and this situation is very likely. All markets are overheated speculative . When there are bubbles , they will sooner or later burst. My prediction is that by the end of the year the situation will be like at the end of 2008.
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