Ruble for oil or oil for rubles?

 Rouble is losing ground because of the sharp decline in oil prices: from the beginning of the week - at $ 10, to $ 107.5 per barrel of Brent."The fall in oil prices to $ 10 a week - a decent stress for Western investors. While quotes contracts will not return to the marks above $ 110, fall rally will be delayed, "- says Angelika Henkel, chief analyst of" Alfa-Bank ".Source
 Difficult to find a media outlet that would not use such an established stamp (the fall of the ruble is due to the fall in the value of oil) in explaining the fall in the value of the ruble against foreign currencies. And so, if we consider the ratio of the ruble to the currencies and oil prices in the Forex market in the short term. But it is absolutely the opposite picture is seen over a longer period of time offset short-term fluctuations.
 Take the post-1998 crisis, not to count the scale of changes in the value of the ruble against the currency reform.

 By late 1998, the dollar was worth 20 rubles and 65 kopecks, and the price of oil during the year ranged from 10 to 14 dollars per barrel.

 On 22/10/2012 at 17:20 Moscow time, oil was 110.38 dollars per barrel, and the ruble was quoted at -31.0385 rubles per $ 1.
  ... And we see that the ruble during the period (1998 to 2012) fell by more than a third, while the price of oil rose to almost exactly ten times in dollar terms.If we evaluate the depreciation of the ruble price of oil, we will get 17 times cheaper rate.It can be concluded that the ruble depreciation increases the cost of oil, not desheveyuschaya oil reduces the cost of the ruble. And, accordingly, to an increase in profits of raw tycoons of the financial oligarchy and the top layer of the bureaucracy, as well as - to the impoverishment of the vast majority of Russian citizens.