Europe drags RussiaRussia's economic growth is slowing, indicating prediction of Economic Development and Cooperation27.11.2012, 19:55 | Rustem Falyakhov
Russia's economy is slowing, and much indicates forecast of economic development and cooperation. Russia's GDP growth estimate for this year is reduced to 3.4%. Previous forecast OECD was almost 1% higher. In 2013, the economy will grow by 3.8%, but only under the condition that it will not worsen the situation in Europe and cheaper oil.OECD lowered its estimate of economic growth in Russia in 2012 to 3.4%. The previous forecast, issued in May this year, was much more optimistic. It noted that the high oil prices and a stabilization of the debt crisis in the eurozone will boost the Russian economy: while the OECD raised its forecast for 2012 from 4.1% to 4.5%.
A new report by the organization under revision hit and the forecast for 2013: Russia's GDP next year will grow by 3.8% instead of the previously expected 4.1%.Contributed to the deterioration of weather slowing global economy and the ongoing crisis in the eurozone. The OECD estimates that in 2012, world GDP will grow by 2.9%, in 2013 - by 3.4%. Previously, the OECD expects growth of 3.4% and 4.2%, respectively. In the eurozone, the case will be even worse: this year's economy will shrink by 0.4% next year - by 0.1%. It was only in 2014, GDP growth will again be positive - an increase of 1.3%. World economic growth may cause drop in oil prices and the acceleration of capital flight from Russia, said the OECD.Of internal negative factors experts organization called the political tension in the country, developed in the course of the elections, and poor grain harvest.After the revision of the OECD forecasts are almost identical to the revised estimate of a Russian Economic Development Ministry. Agency expects GDP growth in 2012 at 3.5%. This is 0.8% less than in 2011.Despite the apparent slowdown in growth of the Russian GDP in 2012, the authorities are optimistic. In the scenario Russia's macroeconomic conditions in the long term, published in mid-November, the Economic Development Ministry, as the base is projected GDP growth in the years 2013-2030 by 4,1-5,4% per year.Global economy with ministry officials predict slowdown: the next 10 years it will grow by 3.5-4% per year, and by 2030, the growth rate will slow to 3%. In the October forecast of the World Bank forecast of Russia's GDP has also been reduced - by 0.4% (to 3.5%) in 2012 and by 0.5% (to 3.6%) for the next, the coordinator for the World Bank Country Sector Economic Policy in Russia and forecast by Kaspar Richter. The reasons for the forecast adjustments are the same - the situation in the euro zone, and the low yield and increase in regulated prices for housing services.International rating agency Fitch expects the Russian economy to 3.5% in 2012 and 2013, follows from the agency's report Global Economic Outlook, released in October.The trend this year - convergence predictions of most experts. "In its assessment of the Russian economy OECD followed by other international and Russian institutions, in general, is already pointing to the obvious factors contributing to the deterioration of the forecast," - said the director of "Treasury" Rosgosstrakh bank Dmitry Emelin. But Russian experts do not agree on everything with the OECD estimates the causes of what is happening.Unsettled European issues is reflected in the Russian economy, mainly through the price of oil, and it is in this year was high, which does not constitute a formal reason for the slowdown in GDP, the expert Raiffeisenbank Mary Pomelnikova. "Although, of course, instability abroad reduces external demand and capital outflows, but these factors cause minor damage while the Russian economy," - said the expert.Political instability, as indicated by the OECD, it is more risk than a factor slowing the current growth, adds the director on financial markets and macroeconomics MC "Alfa Capital" Vladimir Bragin.If the economy of the euro area will improve and oil prices rise, the Russian government can solve political problems by increasing budget expenditures, he said. If the negative scenario will be realized, the decline in the standard of living will increase the protests, which will increase pressure on the economy. At present, the political situation in the country is more or less stable and not put additional pressure on the forecasted values of the GDP, said Svetlana Korzeneva, Senior Analyst Group "Alor."Inflation is projected OECD to rise from 4.6% (May forecast) up to 5% this year and to 6.4% in 2013. Forecast of Economic Development in 2012 - 7%, on 2013th target range for inflation is 5-6%. The summer drought has impact on prices this year and in early 2013, said Pomelnikova. "But in general, due to the continuation of the Central Bank inflation targeting surplus transfer to the Reserve Fund and the Ministry of Finance to limit the growth of regulated tariffs, inflation in 2013 is likely to be around 6.8%," - says Pomelnikova. According to Bragin, inflation in 2013 will be 6%.Source-------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------
In Europe as a result of sneezing and Russia began sea from TB - can be summed up like this this note, in which he strenuously trying to persuade readers that the problems of the Russian economy is not immanent, and brought. True reason inflation in Europe is 1.5% (core inflation in the euro zone, which excludes volatile energy prices, alcohol and tobacco products, was 1.5% in annual terms. Meanwhile inflation in Italy during the same period amounted to 0, 2%, in Spain - 0.3%, in England and France - 0.7%, Germany - 0.9%. prices in Sweden during this period did not change. And in some cases even deflation. prices declined in Belgium by 0.3%, Greece - 1.1%. Rosstat also said that inflation in the Republic of Korea from January to July of this year was 0.7% in the U.S. - 1.5%, Brazil - 2.8 %, Kazakhstan - 3%, in Ukraine, prices fell slightly - by 0.1%. More: http://www.ng.ru/economics/2012-08-27/4_inflyacia.html) and we fit to 7 %. But Russian citizens are in rubles and inflation in Europe is not automatically transformed into Russia. But the author is not important. He was the main thing to convince readers that in Russia everything is stable and good, because the president said so, and so the experts say. In fact, experts say that instability in Europe leads to a reduction in external demand and capital outflows. Modern capital it wonderful. If not stated otherwise, as runs where instability. And the supply of something is not specifically mentioned. Perhaps, indeed, Europe consumed less gas? But no.Particularly pleased to see that, "Despite the obvious slowdown of Russia's GDP in 2012, the authorities do not lose." optimism. What are the optimists!!! There is nobody else to pull the skin! Already invented and soon will introduce a fee for repair separately collected. There, you see, the real estate tax to the market price set by the government officials, will collect. In general there is not contingent finally robbed citizens.But the fact that: "The unresolved European issues is reflected in the Russian economy ..." - Are concerned. Enough sneezing fellow Europeans, and that the whole of Russia will become extinct. Solve your problems so quickly! And we are here until we overcome ignorance of journalists and experts in economics.
Russia's economy is slowing, and much indicates forecast of economic development and cooperation. Russia's GDP growth estimate for this year is reduced to 3.4%. Previous forecast OECD was almost 1% higher. In 2013, the economy will grow by 3.8%, but only under the condition that it will not worsen the situation in Europe and cheaper oil.OECD lowered its estimate of economic growth in Russia in 2012 to 3.4%. The previous forecast, issued in May this year, was much more optimistic. It noted that the high oil prices and a stabilization of the debt crisis in the eurozone will boost the Russian economy: while the OECD raised its forecast for 2012 from 4.1% to 4.5%.
A new report by the organization under revision hit and the forecast for 2013: Russia's GDP next year will grow by 3.8% instead of the previously expected 4.1%.Contributed to the deterioration of weather slowing global economy and the ongoing crisis in the eurozone. The OECD estimates that in 2012, world GDP will grow by 2.9%, in 2013 - by 3.4%. Previously, the OECD expects growth of 3.4% and 4.2%, respectively. In the eurozone, the case will be even worse: this year's economy will shrink by 0.4% next year - by 0.1%. It was only in 2014, GDP growth will again be positive - an increase of 1.3%. World economic growth may cause drop in oil prices and the acceleration of capital flight from Russia, said the OECD.Of internal negative factors experts organization called the political tension in the country, developed in the course of the elections, and poor grain harvest.After the revision of the OECD forecasts are almost identical to the revised estimate of a Russian Economic Development Ministry. Agency expects GDP growth in 2012 at 3.5%. This is 0.8% less than in 2011.Despite the apparent slowdown in growth of the Russian GDP in 2012, the authorities are optimistic. In the scenario Russia's macroeconomic conditions in the long term, published in mid-November, the Economic Development Ministry, as the base is projected GDP growth in the years 2013-2030 by 4,1-5,4% per year.Global economy with ministry officials predict slowdown: the next 10 years it will grow by 3.5-4% per year, and by 2030, the growth rate will slow to 3%. In the October forecast of the World Bank forecast of Russia's GDP has also been reduced - by 0.4% (to 3.5%) in 2012 and by 0.5% (to 3.6%) for the next, the coordinator for the World Bank Country Sector Economic Policy in Russia and forecast by Kaspar Richter. The reasons for the forecast adjustments are the same - the situation in the euro zone, and the low yield and increase in regulated prices for housing services.International rating agency Fitch expects the Russian economy to 3.5% in 2012 and 2013, follows from the agency's report Global Economic Outlook, released in October.The trend this year - convergence predictions of most experts. "In its assessment of the Russian economy OECD followed by other international and Russian institutions, in general, is already pointing to the obvious factors contributing to the deterioration of the forecast," - said the director of "Treasury" Rosgosstrakh bank Dmitry Emelin. But Russian experts do not agree on everything with the OECD estimates the causes of what is happening.Unsettled European issues is reflected in the Russian economy, mainly through the price of oil, and it is in this year was high, which does not constitute a formal reason for the slowdown in GDP, the expert Raiffeisenbank Mary Pomelnikova. "Although, of course, instability abroad reduces external demand and capital outflows, but these factors cause minor damage while the Russian economy," - said the expert.Political instability, as indicated by the OECD, it is more risk than a factor slowing the current growth, adds the director on financial markets and macroeconomics MC "Alfa Capital" Vladimir Bragin.If the economy of the euro area will improve and oil prices rise, the Russian government can solve political problems by increasing budget expenditures, he said. If the negative scenario will be realized, the decline in the standard of living will increase the protests, which will increase pressure on the economy. At present, the political situation in the country is more or less stable and not put additional pressure on the forecasted values of the GDP, said Svetlana Korzeneva, Senior Analyst Group "Alor."Inflation is projected OECD to rise from 4.6% (May forecast) up to 5% this year and to 6.4% in 2013. Forecast of Economic Development in 2012 - 7%, on 2013th target range for inflation is 5-6%. The summer drought has impact on prices this year and in early 2013, said Pomelnikova. "But in general, due to the continuation of the Central Bank inflation targeting surplus transfer to the Reserve Fund and the Ministry of Finance to limit the growth of regulated tariffs, inflation in 2013 is likely to be around 6.8%," - says Pomelnikova. According to Bragin, inflation in 2013 will be 6%.Source-------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------
In Europe as a result of sneezing and Russia began sea from TB - can be summed up like this this note, in which he strenuously trying to persuade readers that the problems of the Russian economy is not immanent, and brought. True reason inflation in Europe is 1.5% (core inflation in the euro zone, which excludes volatile energy prices, alcohol and tobacco products, was 1.5% in annual terms. Meanwhile inflation in Italy during the same period amounted to 0, 2%, in Spain - 0.3%, in England and France - 0.7%, Germany - 0.9%. prices in Sweden during this period did not change. And in some cases even deflation. prices declined in Belgium by 0.3%, Greece - 1.1%. Rosstat also said that inflation in the Republic of Korea from January to July of this year was 0.7% in the U.S. - 1.5%, Brazil - 2.8 %, Kazakhstan - 3%, in Ukraine, prices fell slightly - by 0.1%. More: http://www.ng.ru/economics/2012-08-27/4_inflyacia.html) and we fit to 7 %. But Russian citizens are in rubles and inflation in Europe is not automatically transformed into Russia. But the author is not important. He was the main thing to convince readers that in Russia everything is stable and good, because the president said so, and so the experts say. In fact, experts say that instability in Europe leads to a reduction in external demand and capital outflows. Modern capital it wonderful. If not stated otherwise, as runs where instability. And the supply of something is not specifically mentioned. Perhaps, indeed, Europe consumed less gas? But no.Particularly pleased to see that, "Despite the obvious slowdown of Russia's GDP in 2012, the authorities do not lose." optimism. What are the optimists!!! There is nobody else to pull the skin! Already invented and soon will introduce a fee for repair separately collected. There, you see, the real estate tax to the market price set by the government officials, will collect. In general there is not contingent finally robbed citizens.But the fact that: "The unresolved European issues is reflected in the Russian economy ..." - Are concerned. Enough sneezing fellow Europeans, and that the whole of Russia will become extinct. Solve your problems so quickly! And we are here until we overcome ignorance of journalists and experts in economics.
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