During the crisis generated by the power of the population paysGains companies almost doubled, but even the Russians are forced to save on food.This year Russian companies will be most profitable in the history of
the new Russia, but the main burden of the crisis will be borne by
ordinary Russians, said the chief economist of the Russian office of
BofA Merrill Lynch Vladimir Osakovsky report "Russia: the consumer pays
for everything."According
to Rosstat estimates, the profits of the corporate sector of Russia for
the first four months of 2015 soared at an annual rate of more than
90%, far above the level of inflation of 16.4%. And this happened in spite of the sharp fall in oil prices, double-digit rates on loans and European sanctions!
"In our opinion, such a good profit growth is dictated mainly by the sharp devaluation of the ruble, which compensated for the drop in oil prices by 47%. In addition, the corporate sector is profiting from rising inflation and, consequently, a deep fall in real wages, "- writes Osakovski.In other words, almost two-fold excess profits of domestic entrepreneurs have paid out of pocket Russian consumers. That is - we are with you. The result is that the current crisis of ordinary Russians was much more severe than in 2008. Household consumption in the first quarter average collapsed by 9%. Worse it was only in the time of default and the collapse of the ruble in 1998.Now, however, the Russian authorities are in no hurry to support the population. On the contrary, the government reduces the salaries of civil servants and state employees and freezes their indexing. In addition, next year the officials are going to index the pensions and social benefits than the value of real inflation, but only by 5.5%. All this further blow to the population, most of which already had dramatically impoverished.- Last year, the number of Russians with incomes below the poverty level rose from 15.5 to 16.1 million people - govoritekonomist Vladislav Zhukovsky. - This rapid assessments Rosstat did not have time to take into account a sharp drop in the standard of living of Russians in connection with the two-time depreciation of the ruble and transfer of devaluation on inflation. In addition, please note that the official cost of living in Russia in 2014 amounted to 8234 rubles. While real minimum should exceed 16.5 thousand. Rubles. In this case, it turns out that in a state of poverty more than 40% of Russian citizens. And given the shock of devaluation and inflation, the cost of living exceed 20 thousand. Rubles. Therefore, in fact below the poverty line in a state of poverty is about 53% of Russia's population - at least 77 million people!And if you focus not on the Federal State Statistics Service and the Institute of Sociology at the Russian Academy of Sciences, the structure of consumer spending in the past year, he refers to the poor, the poor and impoverished sectors of the population not less than 65% of Russians, and after the collapse of the ruble and falling living standards of Russians in Russia was such at least 70-73%, - says the expert.But it has allowed domestic companies to safely restrain their labor costs, which further increases their profitability. But what about the fact that the record profits corporations make "main driver" of recovery of economic growth in Russia, hopes Osakovski - so it's unlikely! Because, as practice shows, earnings, Russian companies do not invest in the development of production and output abroad.The outflow of capital from the country last year jumped by 2.5 times. Before absolute record - 151 500 000 000 dollars. Thus in 2013 the figure was only 61 billion. As analysts predict BSG despite Anti- offshore campaign, the volume of Russian capital into offshore by 2019 will grow by about 10.2% annually.For example, this year, the Economic Development Ministry has raised its forecast for net capital outflow from Russia in 2015, from 90 to 115 billion dollars. And what will happen in the end - no one knows.Why Russians began to eat lessThe Russians in the crisis have switched from oil to margarine. Margarine production in Russia in 2014 increased by 13%, in 2015 it will exceed 1 million tons. The reason for the prosperity of margarine industry - reducing purchasing power of the population. Part of the production in Russia eaten instead of butter. But the producers earn on exports, which grew by 15% per year.Margarine is a substitute in Russia sunflower oil, and demand is always growing in the crisis years. "Therefore, when the sunflower oil price increases, consumers switch to margarine. We see a movement in the periods sharp rise in prices for sunflower oil, as happened in 2008-2009. Late last year, the price of sunflower oil rose sharply - accordingly, the people began to consume more margarine ", - said director of RBC B2C business line NMGK Alexei Orlov.The reason for increase in the price of sunflower oil embargo was the food, which resulted in limited imports of animal fats and dairy products, according to analysts. For this reason, the import of butter to Russia from January to April 2015 decreased by 71%. Its price on the Russian shelves has grown significantly.In June, the European Union has extended economic sanctions against Russia for another seven months. To this vigorously in the State Duma said that the way the EU, they say, work for the development of import substitution in Russia and helps to raise our food industry. So why is it then falls as food prices domestically "import substitution" grow almost every week?Meanwhile, the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs is preparing "our answer Curzon" - discusses a report on Russia's response to Western sanctions. That is - new kontrsanktsii. But somehow it is not even discussed the question how effective they are and whether Russian general?Recall that Russia in August 2014 to restrict imports of food products from countries that have imposed sanctions against it. Under the ban were meat, sausages, fish, vegetables, fruit, dairy products. In June, the government extended the embargo until August 5, 2016, in addition ban the import of all cheeses and tighten the rules for import of dairy products. However, at the same time it excluded from the list of oysters and mussels. Apparently, "a favorite"?Regarding food kontrsanktsy Russian officials say they allegedly began a severe blow to the economy of the European Union, which because of this loses 100 billion a year. And for our economy kontrsanktsii, though, turned a sudden blossoming of the domestic food industry. But is it?According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the volume of production in the food industry, which, incidentally, operates largely on imported raw materials, fell by 1.5%. And even if it is a little, but no "prosperity" is not exactly there. And to say that food kontrsanktsii gave the industry a powerful impetus to the growth, it is not worth it.Reduced production in the food industry due to the massive impoverishment of the population. Revenues of our citizens because of the crisis fell by 5-10%, and spur kontrsanktsiyami rise in food was more than 20%! The fact is that food demand has fallen, and domestic producers have used it wisely, capturing freed from the import market. But it does not increase sales, allowing them to raise prices on products. As a result, people simply began to eat less. Here you have all the import substitution!The number of Russians saving on food, has risen to 63%, according to a survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation. At the same time 40% percent said they switched to cheaper products. A third of the respondents became simply buy less. First of all, Russians are saving the expense of meat products, came under kontrsanktsii.So do we need such and such kontsanktsii import substitution? The market research otvetdirektor Center HSE George Ostapkovichprivodit an example China: "In due time, when there was an incident in Tiananmen Square, the world community on China imposed far greater sanctions than Russia. But the Chinese did not respond kontrsanktsiyami, that is, do not pay attention. They are the opposite - open economy began to rebuild ideology. And because of this we came to the stage of development, which is now seen in China. " So may we do so?Many experts believe that the new kontrsanktsii Russia does not need. It might even give up those introduced in August last year. But some State Duma deputies think differently. In their view, to the existing list of banned products need to add a ban on the import of Russian import of confectionery products, canned fish and wine.There are even more original ideas - the government proposes to impose sanctions against Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola. Appropriate obrascheniepremer Minister Dmitry Medvedev has sent a State Duma deputy Igor Zotov. If this proposal is accepted, then surely we can expect the deficit of soft drinks. Because Cola and Pepsi occupy about 40% of the Russian market. Plus, the application of these measures would lead to unemployment and a significant reduction in revenue. Because these companies deduct hundreds of millions of rubles for the tax on a monthly basis, and billions of rubles a year!In this regard, I want to ask, how long will we continue to impose on themselves an embargo on the import of products? After it hits, primarily for low-income citizens of Russia, which is already more than half of the population. How many of them will be added after the new listings kontrsanktsy?Source: svpressa.ru
"In our opinion, such a good profit growth is dictated mainly by the sharp devaluation of the ruble, which compensated for the drop in oil prices by 47%. In addition, the corporate sector is profiting from rising inflation and, consequently, a deep fall in real wages, "- writes Osakovski.In other words, almost two-fold excess profits of domestic entrepreneurs have paid out of pocket Russian consumers. That is - we are with you. The result is that the current crisis of ordinary Russians was much more severe than in 2008. Household consumption in the first quarter average collapsed by 9%. Worse it was only in the time of default and the collapse of the ruble in 1998.Now, however, the Russian authorities are in no hurry to support the population. On the contrary, the government reduces the salaries of civil servants and state employees and freezes their indexing. In addition, next year the officials are going to index the pensions and social benefits than the value of real inflation, but only by 5.5%. All this further blow to the population, most of which already had dramatically impoverished.- Last year, the number of Russians with incomes below the poverty level rose from 15.5 to 16.1 million people - govoritekonomist Vladislav Zhukovsky. - This rapid assessments Rosstat did not have time to take into account a sharp drop in the standard of living of Russians in connection with the two-time depreciation of the ruble and transfer of devaluation on inflation. In addition, please note that the official cost of living in Russia in 2014 amounted to 8234 rubles. While real minimum should exceed 16.5 thousand. Rubles. In this case, it turns out that in a state of poverty more than 40% of Russian citizens. And given the shock of devaluation and inflation, the cost of living exceed 20 thousand. Rubles. Therefore, in fact below the poverty line in a state of poverty is about 53% of Russia's population - at least 77 million people!And if you focus not on the Federal State Statistics Service and the Institute of Sociology at the Russian Academy of Sciences, the structure of consumer spending in the past year, he refers to the poor, the poor and impoverished sectors of the population not less than 65% of Russians, and after the collapse of the ruble and falling living standards of Russians in Russia was such at least 70-73%, - says the expert.But it has allowed domestic companies to safely restrain their labor costs, which further increases their profitability. But what about the fact that the record profits corporations make "main driver" of recovery of economic growth in Russia, hopes Osakovski - so it's unlikely! Because, as practice shows, earnings, Russian companies do not invest in the development of production and output abroad.The outflow of capital from the country last year jumped by 2.5 times. Before absolute record - 151 500 000 000 dollars. Thus in 2013 the figure was only 61 billion. As analysts predict BSG despite Anti- offshore campaign, the volume of Russian capital into offshore by 2019 will grow by about 10.2% annually.For example, this year, the Economic Development Ministry has raised its forecast for net capital outflow from Russia in 2015, from 90 to 115 billion dollars. And what will happen in the end - no one knows.Why Russians began to eat lessThe Russians in the crisis have switched from oil to margarine. Margarine production in Russia in 2014 increased by 13%, in 2015 it will exceed 1 million tons. The reason for the prosperity of margarine industry - reducing purchasing power of the population. Part of the production in Russia eaten instead of butter. But the producers earn on exports, which grew by 15% per year.Margarine is a substitute in Russia sunflower oil, and demand is always growing in the crisis years. "Therefore, when the sunflower oil price increases, consumers switch to margarine. We see a movement in the periods sharp rise in prices for sunflower oil, as happened in 2008-2009. Late last year, the price of sunflower oil rose sharply - accordingly, the people began to consume more margarine ", - said director of RBC B2C business line NMGK Alexei Orlov.The reason for increase in the price of sunflower oil embargo was the food, which resulted in limited imports of animal fats and dairy products, according to analysts. For this reason, the import of butter to Russia from January to April 2015 decreased by 71%. Its price on the Russian shelves has grown significantly.In June, the European Union has extended economic sanctions against Russia for another seven months. To this vigorously in the State Duma said that the way the EU, they say, work for the development of import substitution in Russia and helps to raise our food industry. So why is it then falls as food prices domestically "import substitution" grow almost every week?Meanwhile, the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs is preparing "our answer Curzon" - discusses a report on Russia's response to Western sanctions. That is - new kontrsanktsii. But somehow it is not even discussed the question how effective they are and whether Russian general?Recall that Russia in August 2014 to restrict imports of food products from countries that have imposed sanctions against it. Under the ban were meat, sausages, fish, vegetables, fruit, dairy products. In June, the government extended the embargo until August 5, 2016, in addition ban the import of all cheeses and tighten the rules for import of dairy products. However, at the same time it excluded from the list of oysters and mussels. Apparently, "a favorite"?Regarding food kontrsanktsy Russian officials say they allegedly began a severe blow to the economy of the European Union, which because of this loses 100 billion a year. And for our economy kontrsanktsii, though, turned a sudden blossoming of the domestic food industry. But is it?According to the Federal State Statistics Service, the volume of production in the food industry, which, incidentally, operates largely on imported raw materials, fell by 1.5%. And even if it is a little, but no "prosperity" is not exactly there. And to say that food kontrsanktsii gave the industry a powerful impetus to the growth, it is not worth it.Reduced production in the food industry due to the massive impoverishment of the population. Revenues of our citizens because of the crisis fell by 5-10%, and spur kontrsanktsiyami rise in food was more than 20%! The fact is that food demand has fallen, and domestic producers have used it wisely, capturing freed from the import market. But it does not increase sales, allowing them to raise prices on products. As a result, people simply began to eat less. Here you have all the import substitution!The number of Russians saving on food, has risen to 63%, according to a survey conducted by the Public Opinion Foundation. At the same time 40% percent said they switched to cheaper products. A third of the respondents became simply buy less. First of all, Russians are saving the expense of meat products, came under kontrsanktsii.So do we need such and such kontsanktsii import substitution? The market research otvetdirektor Center HSE George Ostapkovichprivodit an example China: "In due time, when there was an incident in Tiananmen Square, the world community on China imposed far greater sanctions than Russia. But the Chinese did not respond kontrsanktsiyami, that is, do not pay attention. They are the opposite - open economy began to rebuild ideology. And because of this we came to the stage of development, which is now seen in China. " So may we do so?Many experts believe that the new kontrsanktsii Russia does not need. It might even give up those introduced in August last year. But some State Duma deputies think differently. In their view, to the existing list of banned products need to add a ban on the import of Russian import of confectionery products, canned fish and wine.There are even more original ideas - the government proposes to impose sanctions against Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola. Appropriate obrascheniepremer Minister Dmitry Medvedev has sent a State Duma deputy Igor Zotov. If this proposal is accepted, then surely we can expect the deficit of soft drinks. Because Cola and Pepsi occupy about 40% of the Russian market. Plus, the application of these measures would lead to unemployment and a significant reduction in revenue. Because these companies deduct hundreds of millions of rubles for the tax on a monthly basis, and billions of rubles a year!In this regard, I want to ask, how long will we continue to impose on themselves an embargo on the import of products? After it hits, primarily for low-income citizens of Russia, which is already more than half of the population. How many of them will be added after the new listings kontrsanktsy?Source: svpressa.ru
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