In Russia there comes povertyThe
crisis in Russia has led to a sharp increase in poverty, in the spring
of almost 23 million people had incomes below the subsistence minimum. While the population believes the government argues that the crisis will not last long. But the fall of the situation in the social sphere may worsen, warns
the director of the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting
RANHiGS Tatiana Malev.- Recently, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets reported a sharp increase in the number of poor in the country. It was predictable?By
reducing real disposable income by 5% in real wages and a 10% increase
in poverty was inevitable, and it should not cause problems and wonder. People are forced to restructure their consumption and to abandon many of the former cost.
But this is the situation at mid-year, and that's not all.I think that in September, after the end of the rainbow summer, when people return from vacation and will need to have money to send their children to school (which is a large one-time costs for all households), reduced income will be felt even more strongly.I fear the social consequences of the approaching autumn.- But so far no negative reaction society does not show.- The situation is really contradictory. Objectively, there is deterioration in the socio-economic situation of the population. Subjectively, the population is showing patience and optimism. Let's see how long this mood will last. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the political rhetoric of the authorities until the last day was the fact that the crisis is temporary and will last one to two years. But growth points yet, so it is unclear why it suddenly the country will emerge from the crisis? Due to the fact that long endured? It does not happen. By the way, such sentiments prevailed in the early and mid-90s: waiting time, too, that the crisis is about to end and start economic growth as a natural reward for patience. But he did not start because the relevant economic conditions were.- If there is no new external shocks - new sanctions or further fall in oil prices - would further deteriorate the situation in the social sphere?- Likely to be. Firstly, yet we do not have coped with inflation. Second, enterprises are pending layoffs, which were not carried out based on the fact that the crisis will end by autumn. But since this is unlikely to happen, I think that the fall will be a surge problem. Social processes in principle inertia. They respond to economic changes with a delay (for example, the exchange rate fell in November and December of last year, while revenues began to decline only in January 2015).Stop them at one time is impossible. Even if oil prices suddenly returned to pre-crisis levels, and would cancel the authorization, the social indicators are still a few months have worsened.- 22 million poor - quite a frightening figure. How correct is used by the Government Poverty Assessment for cost of living?- Poverty can not be measured by one indicator. There are half a dozen methods for measuring poverty and inequality. Poverty - a state is not only monetary. For example, a family in which the salary is over, but that remains a significant savings, the poor will not. And our statistics show it as poor. If we talk about the middle class, then they tend to have savings, car, apartment, villa. They are the poor? No. Until then poverty far.- Is it possible to make a more accurate estimate of the number of the poor?- It is possible, but not online. According to our research, the middle class for fifteen years depends not only on current income. The representatives of the middle class have alternative material assets - movable and immovable property.
The middle class, according to our estimates, in Russia about 20%. This group, which is stable on his feet, and she survived the 1998 crisis, and the crisis of 2009. The poor have about 9-11%.If the crisis drags on, this proportion could rise to 15%. This is a significant figure, it means that every sixth family is poor - a lot.- Will reduce the problem of poverty the government's attempt to introduce the principle of targeted social assistance?- On targeting say, as I can remember. However, real steps in this direction is made a little sad. The crisis, of course, can push for changes that are not possible on the evolutionary stage. But I'm not too much hope. In early 2015, some regions have begun to declare the transition to targeting. What is the address? This social assistance in accordance with the criteria of need. But, as our analysis shows, in fact, no one applied this principle.In reality, there was a simple reduction in payment or refusal of indexation or incomplete indexation, or mechanical narrowing of the list of recipients, for example, continue to pay war veterans and labor veterans there. But it does not targeted.Targeted - this is when you check your household (not individual) on the subject of whether the household itself to cope with a particular social or economic problem. If not, then he should be assisted by the state. Ministry of Labour is trying to implement the criteria of need in the provision of certain types of social assistance, but I do not very high reason to believe that an attempt will be successful.- On what is your skepticism?- The problem we had to start to engage in much earlier.The fire mode does not work. We need methodologies need trained specialists, need social inspectors who own these techniques.This does not only require operation with reference (in this country may be any reference in any quantity, any quality and any printing). It is necessary to obtain reliable information about the true situation in the household. In the early stages of targeting it may be costly to the State, as it is, on the contrary, is now seeking to save. But in the end the lack of targeting state will cost more than a momentary savings.Do not forget that in general none of the systems (education, health and so on.) By itself does not like to be reformed. Always need external stimulus and external criteria.- In your opinion, social assistance must be material (money), or it must be some kind of social services?- To different groups of the population have used different approaches.For example, our research, which, incidentally, has repeatedly been represented in the government and the presidential administration say that today the problem of pensioners in cash (pension - one of the few types of income that are indexed).But the older a pensioner, the higher his pension, but the less he is happy because he has less and less need for money and more and more social services. Sometimes they just add up the money on the shelf because they do not need money, and needed services - medical, medicine, nursing. But for families with children, who, by the way, in Russia are the poorest social group, social policy offers - build schools, kindergartens and so on., But the problem is that in many families with children there is real money. Now come the fall, and they will once again be a problem to buy school uniforms, textbooks, and so on. For this group need to give priority to cash benefits.- If the government still go the way of savings on social benefits, and starts a full transition to targeted social support system, what it can turn in the future?- We now have the task of the state - to reduce the budget deficit, the Finance Ministry proposes to do this at the expense of the social sphere.But you can not save on the fight against poverty. People fall into the trap of poverty is a condition where a poor family and future generations, too, remain poor.If children grow up in a poor family, so they will be poorly educated, they get a bad place in the labor market, or worse, become unemployed, they will not have access to high quality medicine, and so on around the circle. Therefore, a wise policy not to cut spending on the problem. On the contrary, we must look for resources to help people break out of this trap, because it will repeatedly face the consequences more.Source: hornews.ru
FTS: in Russia increased the number of billionaires and millionairesRich people were more due to the devaluation of the ruble and deofshorizatsii, experts say.Despite the downturn in the economy, in the past year increased the number of wealthy Russians, records statistics of the Federal Tax Service. Thus, the number of taxpayers declare income for 2014 more than 1 billion rubles, increased by 5.8% - from 292 to 309 people. And increased the number of millionaires. Thus, the number of tax returns filed with the declared income of c 1 million rubles to 10 million rubles increased by 13% and amounted to 451 thousand. Increase in the number of multimillionaires: the number of Russians earned last year from 500 million rubles to 1 billion rubles was 6 , 6% and amounted to 453 people. The number of those who declare income from 10 million to 500 million rubles, almost unchanged: 23.5 thousand was filed. Declarations, which is 1% more than in 2013.Compared to last year increased the number of declarations submitted and the amount of tax payable on the income of individuals. If from 1 January to 30 April 2014 was made 4.9 million declarations, the declaration campaign during 2015 the number of returns increased by 8% to 5.4 million. The amount of income tax paid rose 12.1%, to 58 billion rubles.Along with the grown-income Russians have become increasingly claim a tax deduction. According to the Federal Tax Service (FTS), the total amount of tax to be refunded from the budget increased by 19.6% compared to the same period last year. The press service of the Federal Tax Service explains it by the fact that starting from the tax period of 2014, came into effect a number of changes in the legislation empowering taxpayers receive property tax deductions. For example, if the acquisition of a property taxpayer does not use the entire amount of the deduction of 2 million rubles, he is entitled to receive the balance in case of purchase (construction) of the other housing.Earlier consulting company New World Wealth in her study noted that in Russia there are more than 82 thousand. Dollar millionaires. Most of the so wealthy (over 52 thousand. People) lives in Moscow.According to experts, in such a formal impact revenue growth took place in the past year devaluation of the ruble, as well as pursued by the government company deofshorizatsii economy.- We see a lot of wealthy clients are converting a portion of their capital from offshore in Russia, - said the head of the tax and legal department of KPMG, Mikhail Orlov. - The money is declared in Russia, with which taxes are paid. Accordingly, they fall into the statistics.- Due to fluctuations in exchange rates sustained some citizens were able to adjust to the situation and to take advantage of it - notes, and partner "Business fairway" Roman Terekhin. - It was possible to make money on horse racing course, in the rise in prices for imported goods, etc. Also, increased income, and those who receive a salary or have savings in foreign currency, the ruble weakened and because their income thus increased.Reducing capital flight of individuals from the previously recorded the Central Bank. According to the regulator, in I quarter 2015 the citizens transferred from Russia to CIS countries $ 5.9 billion - is twice less than in the same period in 2014 ($ 13.1 billion). It fell sharply the amount of transfers to the countries traditionally considered "safe harbors" for investment (the country with a stable banking system is quite popular for emigration and relocation of families from wealthy Russians or large businesses). For example, in Switzerland, in the I quarter of this year physical persons transferred $ 962 million - 72% less than the same period last year. The volume of transfers from Russia to the UK fell by 61% - to $ 341 million (versus $ 867 in the I quarter of 2014; whereas the growth in comparison with I quarter of 2013 was 62%). In Austria, citizens transferred $ 79 million in the I quarter 2015 - 89% less than in I quarter of 2014. In Germany at the beginning of 2015 the Russians transferred $ 200 million - 70% less than at the beginning of last year.Alexander BayazitovaSource: izvestia.ru
But this is the situation at mid-year, and that's not all.I think that in September, after the end of the rainbow summer, when people return from vacation and will need to have money to send their children to school (which is a large one-time costs for all households), reduced income will be felt even more strongly.I fear the social consequences of the approaching autumn.- But so far no negative reaction society does not show.- The situation is really contradictory. Objectively, there is deterioration in the socio-economic situation of the population. Subjectively, the population is showing patience and optimism. Let's see how long this mood will last. Perhaps this is due to the fact that the political rhetoric of the authorities until the last day was the fact that the crisis is temporary and will last one to two years. But growth points yet, so it is unclear why it suddenly the country will emerge from the crisis? Due to the fact that long endured? It does not happen. By the way, such sentiments prevailed in the early and mid-90s: waiting time, too, that the crisis is about to end and start economic growth as a natural reward for patience. But he did not start because the relevant economic conditions were.- If there is no new external shocks - new sanctions or further fall in oil prices - would further deteriorate the situation in the social sphere?- Likely to be. Firstly, yet we do not have coped with inflation. Second, enterprises are pending layoffs, which were not carried out based on the fact that the crisis will end by autumn. But since this is unlikely to happen, I think that the fall will be a surge problem. Social processes in principle inertia. They respond to economic changes with a delay (for example, the exchange rate fell in November and December of last year, while revenues began to decline only in January 2015).Stop them at one time is impossible. Even if oil prices suddenly returned to pre-crisis levels, and would cancel the authorization, the social indicators are still a few months have worsened.- 22 million poor - quite a frightening figure. How correct is used by the Government Poverty Assessment for cost of living?- Poverty can not be measured by one indicator. There are half a dozen methods for measuring poverty and inequality. Poverty - a state is not only monetary. For example, a family in which the salary is over, but that remains a significant savings, the poor will not. And our statistics show it as poor. If we talk about the middle class, then they tend to have savings, car, apartment, villa. They are the poor? No. Until then poverty far.- Is it possible to make a more accurate estimate of the number of the poor?- It is possible, but not online. According to our research, the middle class for fifteen years depends not only on current income. The representatives of the middle class have alternative material assets - movable and immovable property.
The middle class, according to our estimates, in Russia about 20%. This group, which is stable on his feet, and she survived the 1998 crisis, and the crisis of 2009. The poor have about 9-11%.If the crisis drags on, this proportion could rise to 15%. This is a significant figure, it means that every sixth family is poor - a lot.- Will reduce the problem of poverty the government's attempt to introduce the principle of targeted social assistance?- On targeting say, as I can remember. However, real steps in this direction is made a little sad. The crisis, of course, can push for changes that are not possible on the evolutionary stage. But I'm not too much hope. In early 2015, some regions have begun to declare the transition to targeting. What is the address? This social assistance in accordance with the criteria of need. But, as our analysis shows, in fact, no one applied this principle.In reality, there was a simple reduction in payment or refusal of indexation or incomplete indexation, or mechanical narrowing of the list of recipients, for example, continue to pay war veterans and labor veterans there. But it does not targeted.Targeted - this is when you check your household (not individual) on the subject of whether the household itself to cope with a particular social or economic problem. If not, then he should be assisted by the state. Ministry of Labour is trying to implement the criteria of need in the provision of certain types of social assistance, but I do not very high reason to believe that an attempt will be successful.- On what is your skepticism?- The problem we had to start to engage in much earlier.The fire mode does not work. We need methodologies need trained specialists, need social inspectors who own these techniques.This does not only require operation with reference (in this country may be any reference in any quantity, any quality and any printing). It is necessary to obtain reliable information about the true situation in the household. In the early stages of targeting it may be costly to the State, as it is, on the contrary, is now seeking to save. But in the end the lack of targeting state will cost more than a momentary savings.Do not forget that in general none of the systems (education, health and so on.) By itself does not like to be reformed. Always need external stimulus and external criteria.- In your opinion, social assistance must be material (money), or it must be some kind of social services?- To different groups of the population have used different approaches.For example, our research, which, incidentally, has repeatedly been represented in the government and the presidential administration say that today the problem of pensioners in cash (pension - one of the few types of income that are indexed).But the older a pensioner, the higher his pension, but the less he is happy because he has less and less need for money and more and more social services. Sometimes they just add up the money on the shelf because they do not need money, and needed services - medical, medicine, nursing. But for families with children, who, by the way, in Russia are the poorest social group, social policy offers - build schools, kindergartens and so on., But the problem is that in many families with children there is real money. Now come the fall, and they will once again be a problem to buy school uniforms, textbooks, and so on. For this group need to give priority to cash benefits.- If the government still go the way of savings on social benefits, and starts a full transition to targeted social support system, what it can turn in the future?- We now have the task of the state - to reduce the budget deficit, the Finance Ministry proposes to do this at the expense of the social sphere.But you can not save on the fight against poverty. People fall into the trap of poverty is a condition where a poor family and future generations, too, remain poor.If children grow up in a poor family, so they will be poorly educated, they get a bad place in the labor market, or worse, become unemployed, they will not have access to high quality medicine, and so on around the circle. Therefore, a wise policy not to cut spending on the problem. On the contrary, we must look for resources to help people break out of this trap, because it will repeatedly face the consequences more.Source: hornews.ru
FTS: in Russia increased the number of billionaires and millionairesRich people were more due to the devaluation of the ruble and deofshorizatsii, experts say.Despite the downturn in the economy, in the past year increased the number of wealthy Russians, records statistics of the Federal Tax Service. Thus, the number of taxpayers declare income for 2014 more than 1 billion rubles, increased by 5.8% - from 292 to 309 people. And increased the number of millionaires. Thus, the number of tax returns filed with the declared income of c 1 million rubles to 10 million rubles increased by 13% and amounted to 451 thousand. Increase in the number of multimillionaires: the number of Russians earned last year from 500 million rubles to 1 billion rubles was 6 , 6% and amounted to 453 people. The number of those who declare income from 10 million to 500 million rubles, almost unchanged: 23.5 thousand was filed. Declarations, which is 1% more than in 2013.Compared to last year increased the number of declarations submitted and the amount of tax payable on the income of individuals. If from 1 January to 30 April 2014 was made 4.9 million declarations, the declaration campaign during 2015 the number of returns increased by 8% to 5.4 million. The amount of income tax paid rose 12.1%, to 58 billion rubles.Along with the grown-income Russians have become increasingly claim a tax deduction. According to the Federal Tax Service (FTS), the total amount of tax to be refunded from the budget increased by 19.6% compared to the same period last year. The press service of the Federal Tax Service explains it by the fact that starting from the tax period of 2014, came into effect a number of changes in the legislation empowering taxpayers receive property tax deductions. For example, if the acquisition of a property taxpayer does not use the entire amount of the deduction of 2 million rubles, he is entitled to receive the balance in case of purchase (construction) of the other housing.Earlier consulting company New World Wealth in her study noted that in Russia there are more than 82 thousand. Dollar millionaires. Most of the so wealthy (over 52 thousand. People) lives in Moscow.According to experts, in such a formal impact revenue growth took place in the past year devaluation of the ruble, as well as pursued by the government company deofshorizatsii economy.- We see a lot of wealthy clients are converting a portion of their capital from offshore in Russia, - said the head of the tax and legal department of KPMG, Mikhail Orlov. - The money is declared in Russia, with which taxes are paid. Accordingly, they fall into the statistics.- Due to fluctuations in exchange rates sustained some citizens were able to adjust to the situation and to take advantage of it - notes, and partner "Business fairway" Roman Terekhin. - It was possible to make money on horse racing course, in the rise in prices for imported goods, etc. Also, increased income, and those who receive a salary or have savings in foreign currency, the ruble weakened and because their income thus increased.Reducing capital flight of individuals from the previously recorded the Central Bank. According to the regulator, in I quarter 2015 the citizens transferred from Russia to CIS countries $ 5.9 billion - is twice less than in the same period in 2014 ($ 13.1 billion). It fell sharply the amount of transfers to the countries traditionally considered "safe harbors" for investment (the country with a stable banking system is quite popular for emigration and relocation of families from wealthy Russians or large businesses). For example, in Switzerland, in the I quarter of this year physical persons transferred $ 962 million - 72% less than the same period last year. The volume of transfers from Russia to the UK fell by 61% - to $ 341 million (versus $ 867 in the I quarter of 2014; whereas the growth in comparison with I quarter of 2013 was 62%). In Austria, citizens transferred $ 79 million in the I quarter 2015 - 89% less than in I quarter of 2014. In Germany at the beginning of 2015 the Russians transferred $ 200 million - 70% less than at the beginning of last year.Alexander BayazitovaSource: izvestia.ru
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий