The dominance of the oligarchy in the market value of the ruble

  Where roll ruble?
  On Friday, 28 November, oil prices are updated at least four, and very close to the level of $ 70 per barrel. As a result, at the opening of trading the dollar pulled up and almost reached the slats 50 rubles, and the euro exchange rate has exceeded 62 rubles.

And, apparently, this is not the final ratio. Oil on Friday continued to fall in price. According to Bloomberg, the quotes of North Sea oil Brent (it pegged the price of Russian oil Urals) first fell to 70.03 dollars per barrel, which is 2.3% lower than Thursday's closing, and then stabilized near 70.3 dollars. However, in the afternoon, prices began to rise yet.


There is no doubt that in this way the oil market reacted to the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which took place on Thursday. It was decided to keep production quotas at the same level - 30 million barrels per day, despite calls from Venezuela to support the falling oil prices.

According to the deputy chairman of the bank, a former Deputy Minister of Economic Development Andrei Klepach, the oil price could fall below and 70 per barrel. "Failure to reduce quotas will continue to lower the price of oil, and behind her, and the ruble. Price may fall and to $ 60-70 per barrel, "- said in an interview Klepach agency" Interfax ".

What will happen now with the ruble, and what will turn the depreciation of the national currency for the Russian economy?


- The fall of the ruble was expected - said the head of the "Finance and Economics" Institute of Contemporary Development Nikita Maslennikov. - On the general trend influenced by fundamental factors and fundamental factors supporting the ruble today is not visible.

Now we have a bad expectations economic growth of the Russian economy at the end of the year. Some analysts, for example, Standard & Poor's, we predict a technical recession in the fourth quarter. Others believe that the guys from Standard & Poor's gone too far - in the Russian economy technical braking, but year-end GDP of 0.3-0.5%. However, all point out that in the second and third quarters of Russia's GDP showed zero growth.

In any case, the fundamental factor - factor of economic dynamics - the ruble does not support.

Following is another fundamental factor support - oil prices. Here the price dynamics was also predictable. It defines the excess supply in the world oil market. According to the International Energy Agency (International Energy Agency), the excess supply of 1.8 million barrels per day. That's a lot, so everyone understood the OPEC decision - even if they reduced the quota - fundamentally on price dynamics would not affect.

Although affair with OPEC remains. On Thursday, November 27 cartel Secretary General Abdalla Salem El-Badri said that OPEC countries will rigidly observe the quotas established in December 2011. Let me remind you, then all the OPEC quota amounted to 30 million barrels per day, but in the last five months of the cartel members consistently exceeded the quota, and in some weeks it is the excess of income up to 950 thousand barrels per day.

Analysts expect that in the first weeks after the meeting of the OPEC cartel members will still follow a strict regime of enforcement of quotas and therefore realistic to forecast The Wall Street Journal, according to which OPEC can reduce supply by about 300,000 barrels.

It's a bit stabilizes oil prices. But in general, forecast to raise oil prices by the end of the year to $ 90 a barrel now seems overly optimistic, and to the level of 80 dollars - is moderately optimistic.

Under these conditions, the oil situation also does not support rubl.Horosho else that plays against the ruble is not a factor in demand for currency. If you look at the volume of currency auctions - they are insignificant. Therefore, we can assume that banks ahead of time to recruit the necessary amount of foreign currency liquidity to pass the December peak repayment of external corporate debt - about $ 34 billion. Dollars.

"SP": - How did the ruble will be next?

- Then begins the payment options. The dominant point of view - and among international experts, and among domestic - in 2015 the Russian economy will show zero growth.

November 25 was demoted "to zero" outlook on Russia in 2015 by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Bank of Russia also predicts a near-zero growth. Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev maneuver: its forecast - 1.2% of GDP in 2015 - obviously will be reviewed in December. Ulyukayev has cautiously said that "rates will be low, but positive." Translated into normal Russian language, this means growth in 2015, a maximum of 0.2-0.3% of GDP.

Therefore, this factor supporting the ruble in the future can be excluded. It remains only to oil. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the loss of revenue receipts in the budget for 2015 on lower oil prices will be at least a trillion rubles, and the total losses for the Russian economy - at least $ 100 billion.

In my opinion, this is the minimum score. However, the Finance Ministry on Thursday (November 27) expressed that it is necessary to focus on the price of $ 80 per barrel. This means inevitable tightening approaches to public spending and the need to optimize them.

That at such prices for oil can be a ruble? In principle, one can speak of a "frontal" correlation of oil prices with the ruble. Then get the following picture:

If the oil price of about $ 90 per barrel, and a little higher - likely range of fluctuations of 41-43 rubles per dollar.

If the oil price of $ 80 - an interval of 45-47 rubles per dollar. This is about the current level of the course. I think that if the oil price will be closer to $ 80, will play in the ruble exchange ratios 1-1.5 rubles.

If the price of oil will be $ 70 (as it was on Thursday, 27 November, when Brent fell to 71.3 dollars), the real target - 50 rubles per dollar.

If the oil falls below $ 70 per barrel, for example, up to 60 dollars - the dollar will cost about 58-60 rubles.

That's what prospects.

"SP": - And what will happen in this situation with inflation?

- As of November 24 - is the latest information from Rosstat - inflation was 8.9% in annual terms. According to the expectations of the Ministry of Finance, at the end of the year it will be 9.2%.

Then inflation will affect the effect of the depreciation of the ruble, which will be in February-March 2015 - it will drive up to double digits. Then perhaps easing of inflationary pressures, align if oil prices and exchange rate.

It is quite likely scenario. Still, much of the sober analysts said that the price of oil at that time will be set at around $ 80 per barrel. This means the stabilization of the ruble approximately at current levels.

And then a new wave of weakening oil prices is not visible: slowly begins to recover from the global economy. Its growth rate in 2015, the OECD estimates at 3.7%. This is consistent with the assessment of the IMF, and almost coincides with the estimate of OPEC (3.6%). At that pace, even the OPEC countries say that "fair price" for oil - about $ 80 per barrel.

Therefore, we are very heavy and nervous the first quarter of 2015. And then, apparently, inflation will subside - will go to a level below 8% for the year - and the ruble exchange rate will stabilize at current values ...


- From June to date, the ruble depreciated against the dollar by 32.7%; for comparison - Norwegian krone over the same period has lost 16%, ie half - said the economist, teacher of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANHiGS) under the President Vladislav Ginko. - Why do I compare with Norway? Because it is called the northern Saudi Arabia - Norway, like Russia, is heavily dependent on the price of "black gold". This suggests that the ruble sank too much and should be stronger against the dollar and the euro. If so, the ruble in the future, may be playing a part of the fall.

"SP": - How then to explain such a strong subsidence?

- In 2008-2009, the Central Bank has spent more than $ 200 billion from its reserves to maintain the ruble chicken. And this time it was decided to minimize foreign exchange interventions to keep currency reserves on the blackest day.

Now things are not so bad. It is not necessary, for example, argue that the growth of the ruble and rising costs of producers necessarily increase prices. In reality, wages are not growing now, because there is no additional money into the economy. Roughly speaking, if a citizen had $ 100 in his pocket, so $ 100 and left. He is almost impossible to sell, for example, more expensive products a certain level - otherwise it simply will not buy, and the products will be lost.

Do not worry and expense of the prospects of the Russian economy. We have, for example, the extremely low official unemployment rate - 4.5%, and in major cities such as Moscow, - generally 0.35%. Someone may object that we have hidden unemployment, but certainly there are hidden employment. According to Ministry of Economic Development, about 23 million Russians do not pay personal income tax and do not make contributions to social funds. However, these people do not starve - so somewhere operate informally. In view of the "gray" employment, unemployment in Russia is actually not. There is an indirect factor that confirms this: officially, at the end of the summer, work in Russia has driven 4.8 million people - it is a very serious figure.

From my point of view, it shows that the Russian economy, despite the drop in oil prices, developing, and therefore - no need to panic from the current subsidence rate of the ruble ...
Andrey Polunin
Source: svpressa.r
-------------------------------------------------- -----------------------
comment:
Dependence of oil prices and the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar shows that the real interests of the oligarchy and raw magnates are crucial in economic and political life of the country. The national currency is linked to the oil through the "purses" oligarchy, who identified himself to the level of profitability from the sale of oil. If oligarchs determined that a barrel of oil should give them 3,500 rubles, with the price of oil on the world market of $ 100, the ruble will be evaluated in 35 rubles, and at $ 70 dollar will be sold at 50 rubles. That tie the financial institutions of the state to the interests of the oligarchy and generates a paradox that the fall in oil prices in the country is increasing the cost of gasoline.