Liberal
media misinformation constantly impose their servile understanding of
the processes by explaining and demonstrating to citizens that the other
can not be. Here's how to interpret rising prices expert Sberbank Yulia Tsepelyaeva.The rise in prices - a headache Russians
Analyst Julia Tseplyaeva - about why we talk so much about price increases
According to the survey, "Levada-center", in February 2016 77% of respondents considered the price increases the most acute problem of society. Although in recent months a slowdown in inflation to alleviate the problem, it continues to be the focus, steadily entering the top ten risks. While the majority of European countries are on the brink of deflation and try to achieve the acceleration of inflation, which would help to alleviate the debt problem, the Bank of Russia is struggling with inflation, trying to reduce it to 4% by 2017.
Omit empty rhetoric and get to the point. And most importantly in this paragraph to impose the idea that the Bank of Russia is struggling with inflation! Here are just Tsepelyaevoy did not come up with the idea: who then spins inflation if the Bank of Russia is struggling with it in Russia? And he fights, we need to understand more than 20 years, all without success. Just the same eternal struggle! The second false posyl- is that European countries are "teetering on the brink of deflation and try to achieve the acceleration of inflation." Tsepelyaeva apparently believes that if the speculators and the financial oligarchy in Russia has an opportunity to rob people through inflation, the same want anything and everything in this endeavor. In European countries, it is possible there are some groups in the banking sector, which is not averse to profit in the robbery, so now they roam there do not give. There is active industrial capital, lively political parties, trade unions and the high activity of citizens.
At the same time few people believe in the reality of this problem. Too brief for 2012 was a period of low inflation when price increases ranged between 3-4% per annum, and too long and difficult - experience high rates of price growth. Why in the price crisis in Russia began to decline following the falling demand, as happened in Europe? There are several reasons.Firstly, a significant cause of accelerating inflation became apparent devaluation of the ruble in 2014-2015. This impairment resulted in a direct increase in the price of imported goods. And their share in the consumer basket is not small! In 2014, the share of imported goods in retail trade turnover was 42% in 2015, a new wave of devaluation of the ruble has reduced the proportion of only 38%.In the segment of food products the share of imports decreased to 27-29%, whereas previous years kept steadily in the area of 34-36%. And do not expect a radical decline in the share of imported goods in the future. Not all products, even in theory, can be produced in our country. No coffee or cocoa in our climate do not grow, many drugs have to buy, how much they cost.Even if there is a replacement of more expensive imports more expensive, as the cost of goods, and by increasing the share of imports from lower-cost countries, the devaluation has added to inflation, at least 11-13 percentage points in 2014-2015 This contribution would be great, but global food prices significantly, by an average of 19%, decreased in 2015. In addition to the direct impact on prices, the devaluation fueled inflationary expectations. The relationship between the fall of the ruble and the subsequent acceleration of price growth is obvious for many, in fact, the effect is often exaggerated.If the ruble exchange rate fluctuations should not expect in the future (though the main effect of devaluation already played), the impact on prices of the introduction of the food embargo promises, fortunately, be disposable. The food embargo, though launched import substitution in agriculture and supported the domestic food industry, but it has led to price increases by 3 percentage points in 2014-2015.
Of the 40 million Russian only 8 million borrowers unable to service their debtsSince the effect of the devaluation of the already played and the effect of the embargo is already included in the prices, slowing price growth, which we are seeing now is likely to continue. And the "new normal" for the country will be the levels of about 5-6%, which is already published in 2012-2013. And why not 4%, which aims to Bank of Russia? The reason for this high concentration and monopolization of the Russian economy, which determines the nature of the response to reduced demand.Not reduce prices and output.For example, accounts for 60% of GDP or more, and there is competition is forcing businesses to cut prices at falling demand in Europe and the United States the share of small and medium-sized businesses. In Russia, the share of the largest companies account for about 60% of GDP and small businesses produce about 20% of GDP. The relatively low competition helps to reduce output in response to a reduction in demand and prices continue to rise. In principle, the increase in costs that monopolies are better able to pass on to consumers - it is a serious problem that prevents a slowdown in inflation and achieve the objectives of the monetary authorities on inflation.The state sets the "ceiling" of increasing the tariffs of natural monopolies (gas prices, freight rail transportation, wholesale electricity prices, and the growth of utility bills and housing and communal services, tariffs). At the same time it tries to limit the appetite of the monopolies and the growth rates, which should not exceed the inflation rate, to encourage major companies to reduce costs. But in fact, consistently fails to adhere to this policy as monopolies able to convince the government of the need for additional funds, for example, to finance the investment program.For example, in 2014, and in 2015 the government was going to limit the growth rates in the field of housing and communal services 4% per year, and actual growth, according to Rosstat data, it was 5.3% and 9.1% respectively, which is added to paragraph 1. P. in prices. And the announced increase in utility tariffs should not exceed 2016 4%, but it's not hard to believe, just look in the monthly bills sent by. As in the rest of the modest increase in tariffs of natural monopolies by 2-4% in 2016. And as long as there are no preconditions to expect that the situation will drastically change for the better in the coming years.But it will mean a slowdown in inflation this year and in subsequent years, that satisfied the actions of the monetary authorities will be more or price increases will cease to excite people? It is very doubtful. In the fat years prices have risen even faster, and double-digit inflation was completely familiar. But even faster growing average wages and people's incomes. In real terms (ie adjusted for inflation), average wage growth in 2000-2007 was 15%, which mitigated the inflation tax for the majority.And now even more moderate price growth against the backdrop of anemic growth in nominal income, ie, their purchasing power is reduced. This makes the burden of the inflation tax is very difficult, despite the slowdown in inflation. Apparently, it is not necessary to wait for the next few years a radical improvement of the situation with the income, and hence the sensitivity to inflation, albeit considerably slow down, will remain high.There is another consideration that is difficult to avoid when it comes to inflation. Few believe the figures submitted by the statistical authorities. Indeed, these figures suggest that the increase in prices amounted to 12.9% in 2015. One can argue, as I feel the majority suggest that it is not. The fact that the inflation figure is some "average temperature in the hospital."In fact, the consumer basket each family arranged in different ways, is very dependent on the level of income. The lower the income, the greater the basket of foodstuffs. The number of people below the poverty line increased in 2015 by 3 million, reaching 19.2 million people. And in this category of the population share of food is more than 50% in the basket of expenses.In principle, the consumption structure has changed in many families, which is directly connected with falling revenues. The share of food began to grow and reached 38% in 2015 (it was 36.5% in 2014). Therefore, food price dynamics acquires increased importance for the calculation of inflation in 2016 and subsequent years.On the other hand, the higher the income, the greater the basket of imported goods and services (eg, travel), and hence the greater the impact of the devaluation on the increase in the cost of consumer basket family. Therefore, the official figures are worth watching, making some adjustments to their own situation and habits.The site can be found Rosstat "personal" inflation calculator and evaluate it. Especially if you use a financial calculator costs, which provides the Savings Bank, to properly identify your particular structure of consumer spending. Therefore, forecasts of future inflation should be adjusted to the characteristics of specific expenditures.Author - Director of the Center of Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank
A source
Briefly summarized Tsepelyaevoy all the above text it is possible to identify three reasons why prices have not fallen in Russia during the crisis and grew: first, inflation, which, according to Tsepelyaevoy has no direct relation to the devaluation; Secondly, the growth rates, and, thirdly, the lack of competition.It is not possible to expect from liberal economists, that they based their evidence on definitions, rather than their own personal reasoning or on the opinion of the authorities, but they have opened. After all, for them, my personal opinion is more important than truth, determination of the inflation quite clearly shows that the CBR is the cause of inflation, as well as the fact that inflation is a monetary character. Inflation (from the Latin inflatio -vzdutie.) - The depreciation of money, which manifests itself in the form of price increases for goods and services that are not due to an increase in their quality or the inevitable cost increases. Inflation is caused, first of all, the overflow channels of monetary circulation of excess money supply in the absence of an adequate increase in the mass of commodities.
The Bank of Russia is through devaluation of the ruble and spur inflation in the country, and not otherwise. Tsepelyaevoy As it turns out, that the deflation itself, and inflation itself.The second reason for rising prices, it is of course growth in producer costs, as a result of tariff increases that the government, contrary to the Constitution of the Russian Federation (Article 34. N2.) Prohibits any monopoly, and therefore contribute to this monopoly. But monopoly in Russia can be traced not only to the so-called natural monopolies, but in all sectors of the economy, especially in the financial. Price growth in Russia is a manifestation of the domination of the financial oligarchy and plutocracy in crisis before the crisis, the people involved in robbery in any situation and under any weather conditions.With respect to competition, which is so like to speculate liberal economists, it is worth noting that the capital has never sought and does not aim to compete as a bureaucrat, and is always looking for the possibility of establishing a monopoly, which he, in the absence of an active civil resistance, and sets .
Analyst Julia Tseplyaeva - about why we talk so much about price increases
According to the survey, "Levada-center", in February 2016 77% of respondents considered the price increases the most acute problem of society. Although in recent months a slowdown in inflation to alleviate the problem, it continues to be the focus, steadily entering the top ten risks. While the majority of European countries are on the brink of deflation and try to achieve the acceleration of inflation, which would help to alleviate the debt problem, the Bank of Russia is struggling with inflation, trying to reduce it to 4% by 2017.
Omit empty rhetoric and get to the point. And most importantly in this paragraph to impose the idea that the Bank of Russia is struggling with inflation! Here are just Tsepelyaevoy did not come up with the idea: who then spins inflation if the Bank of Russia is struggling with it in Russia? And he fights, we need to understand more than 20 years, all without success. Just the same eternal struggle! The second false posyl- is that European countries are "teetering on the brink of deflation and try to achieve the acceleration of inflation." Tsepelyaeva apparently believes that if the speculators and the financial oligarchy in Russia has an opportunity to rob people through inflation, the same want anything and everything in this endeavor. In European countries, it is possible there are some groups in the banking sector, which is not averse to profit in the robbery, so now they roam there do not give. There is active industrial capital, lively political parties, trade unions and the high activity of citizens.
At the same time few people believe in the reality of this problem. Too brief for 2012 was a period of low inflation when price increases ranged between 3-4% per annum, and too long and difficult - experience high rates of price growth. Why in the price crisis in Russia began to decline following the falling demand, as happened in Europe? There are several reasons.Firstly, a significant cause of accelerating inflation became apparent devaluation of the ruble in 2014-2015. This impairment resulted in a direct increase in the price of imported goods. And their share in the consumer basket is not small! In 2014, the share of imported goods in retail trade turnover was 42% in 2015, a new wave of devaluation of the ruble has reduced the proportion of only 38%.In the segment of food products the share of imports decreased to 27-29%, whereas previous years kept steadily in the area of 34-36%. And do not expect a radical decline in the share of imported goods in the future. Not all products, even in theory, can be produced in our country. No coffee or cocoa in our climate do not grow, many drugs have to buy, how much they cost.Even if there is a replacement of more expensive imports more expensive, as the cost of goods, and by increasing the share of imports from lower-cost countries, the devaluation has added to inflation, at least 11-13 percentage points in 2014-2015 This contribution would be great, but global food prices significantly, by an average of 19%, decreased in 2015. In addition to the direct impact on prices, the devaluation fueled inflationary expectations. The relationship between the fall of the ruble and the subsequent acceleration of price growth is obvious for many, in fact, the effect is often exaggerated.If the ruble exchange rate fluctuations should not expect in the future (though the main effect of devaluation already played), the impact on prices of the introduction of the food embargo promises, fortunately, be disposable. The food embargo, though launched import substitution in agriculture and supported the domestic food industry, but it has led to price increases by 3 percentage points in 2014-2015.
Of the 40 million Russian only 8 million borrowers unable to service their debtsSince the effect of the devaluation of the already played and the effect of the embargo is already included in the prices, slowing price growth, which we are seeing now is likely to continue. And the "new normal" for the country will be the levels of about 5-6%, which is already published in 2012-2013. And why not 4%, which aims to Bank of Russia? The reason for this high concentration and monopolization of the Russian economy, which determines the nature of the response to reduced demand.Not reduce prices and output.For example, accounts for 60% of GDP or more, and there is competition is forcing businesses to cut prices at falling demand in Europe and the United States the share of small and medium-sized businesses. In Russia, the share of the largest companies account for about 60% of GDP and small businesses produce about 20% of GDP. The relatively low competition helps to reduce output in response to a reduction in demand and prices continue to rise. In principle, the increase in costs that monopolies are better able to pass on to consumers - it is a serious problem that prevents a slowdown in inflation and achieve the objectives of the monetary authorities on inflation.The state sets the "ceiling" of increasing the tariffs of natural monopolies (gas prices, freight rail transportation, wholesale electricity prices, and the growth of utility bills and housing and communal services, tariffs). At the same time it tries to limit the appetite of the monopolies and the growth rates, which should not exceed the inflation rate, to encourage major companies to reduce costs. But in fact, consistently fails to adhere to this policy as monopolies able to convince the government of the need for additional funds, for example, to finance the investment program.For example, in 2014, and in 2015 the government was going to limit the growth rates in the field of housing and communal services 4% per year, and actual growth, according to Rosstat data, it was 5.3% and 9.1% respectively, which is added to paragraph 1. P. in prices. And the announced increase in utility tariffs should not exceed 2016 4%, but it's not hard to believe, just look in the monthly bills sent by. As in the rest of the modest increase in tariffs of natural monopolies by 2-4% in 2016. And as long as there are no preconditions to expect that the situation will drastically change for the better in the coming years.But it will mean a slowdown in inflation this year and in subsequent years, that satisfied the actions of the monetary authorities will be more or price increases will cease to excite people? It is very doubtful. In the fat years prices have risen even faster, and double-digit inflation was completely familiar. But even faster growing average wages and people's incomes. In real terms (ie adjusted for inflation), average wage growth in 2000-2007 was 15%, which mitigated the inflation tax for the majority.And now even more moderate price growth against the backdrop of anemic growth in nominal income, ie, their purchasing power is reduced. This makes the burden of the inflation tax is very difficult, despite the slowdown in inflation. Apparently, it is not necessary to wait for the next few years a radical improvement of the situation with the income, and hence the sensitivity to inflation, albeit considerably slow down, will remain high.There is another consideration that is difficult to avoid when it comes to inflation. Few believe the figures submitted by the statistical authorities. Indeed, these figures suggest that the increase in prices amounted to 12.9% in 2015. One can argue, as I feel the majority suggest that it is not. The fact that the inflation figure is some "average temperature in the hospital."In fact, the consumer basket each family arranged in different ways, is very dependent on the level of income. The lower the income, the greater the basket of foodstuffs. The number of people below the poverty line increased in 2015 by 3 million, reaching 19.2 million people. And in this category of the population share of food is more than 50% in the basket of expenses.In principle, the consumption structure has changed in many families, which is directly connected with falling revenues. The share of food began to grow and reached 38% in 2015 (it was 36.5% in 2014). Therefore, food price dynamics acquires increased importance for the calculation of inflation in 2016 and subsequent years.On the other hand, the higher the income, the greater the basket of imported goods and services (eg, travel), and hence the greater the impact of the devaluation on the increase in the cost of consumer basket family. Therefore, the official figures are worth watching, making some adjustments to their own situation and habits.The site can be found Rosstat "personal" inflation calculator and evaluate it. Especially if you use a financial calculator costs, which provides the Savings Bank, to properly identify your particular structure of consumer spending. Therefore, forecasts of future inflation should be adjusted to the characteristics of specific expenditures.Author - Director of the Center of Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank
A source
Briefly summarized Tsepelyaevoy all the above text it is possible to identify three reasons why prices have not fallen in Russia during the crisis and grew: first, inflation, which, according to Tsepelyaevoy has no direct relation to the devaluation; Secondly, the growth rates, and, thirdly, the lack of competition.It is not possible to expect from liberal economists, that they based their evidence on definitions, rather than their own personal reasoning or on the opinion of the authorities, but they have opened. After all, for them, my personal opinion is more important than truth, determination of the inflation quite clearly shows that the CBR is the cause of inflation, as well as the fact that inflation is a monetary character. Inflation (from the Latin inflatio -vzdutie.) - The depreciation of money, which manifests itself in the form of price increases for goods and services that are not due to an increase in their quality or the inevitable cost increases. Inflation is caused, first of all, the overflow channels of monetary circulation of excess money supply in the absence of an adequate increase in the mass of commodities.
The Bank of Russia is through devaluation of the ruble and spur inflation in the country, and not otherwise. Tsepelyaevoy As it turns out, that the deflation itself, and inflation itself.The second reason for rising prices, it is of course growth in producer costs, as a result of tariff increases that the government, contrary to the Constitution of the Russian Federation (Article 34. N2.) Prohibits any monopoly, and therefore contribute to this monopoly. But monopoly in Russia can be traced not only to the so-called natural monopolies, but in all sectors of the economy, especially in the financial. Price growth in Russia is a manifestation of the domination of the financial oligarchy and plutocracy in crisis before the crisis, the people involved in robbery in any situation and under any weather conditions.With respect to competition, which is so like to speculate liberal economists, it is worth noting that the capital has never sought and does not aim to compete as a bureaucrat, and is always looking for the possibility of establishing a monopoly, which he, in the absence of an active civil resistance, and sets .
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