Prices continue to rise
Inflation in Russia in 2014 will amount to about 11.5 percent. Hardest Expensive food. Leader in the growth of prices was the buckwheat. The new year is expected to surge in the cost of fruits and vegetables, experts warn.
Official inflation in Russia at the end of the year is almost double the projections of federal officials. Ministry of Economic Development expects that 2014 will end with a price growth of 6 per cent. Real growth, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanova, 11.5 percent. At the same time, if you look at the statistics from Rosstat, for each product group price increase was tens of percent. According to experts, the main reason for the sharp devaluation of the ruble inflation served and bilateral sanctions. Ensure that the rise in prices will stop in the coming year, no one can. It is obvious that inflation will remain double-digit.
Champions with a long shelf life
Over the past year, according to Rosstat, the strongest in Russia grew buckwheat (about 80 percent), cabbage (over 44 percent), sugar (more than 38 percent), chicken and pork (about 27 percent). Also, more than 20 percent of the increased cost of apples, tomatoes, onions, fish and rice. Dairy products, cheese and sausage products have increased in price by 15 to 20 percent. Smaller increase in prices eggs, sunflower oil and wheat bread (less than 5 percent).
The price behavior of each of the product groups individually. For example, the rise in price of buckwheat is partly due to the fact that the fall in the Altai region, where buckwheat is grown mainly in Russia, suddenly the snow fell. This led to the emergence of panic, panic buying and - as a consequence - the rise in prices. At the same time, there are several common factors leading price increase. "Buckwheat and sugar - traditional Russian" anti-crisis "goods that are bought in the hard days in the first place, as long stored," - says the deputy director of the Center for Economic Policy Research Economics Faculty of Moscow State University. MV University Yuri Danilov.
As for the cabbage, here the main reason is the length of storage, although in this case it is used not buyers and sellers. "Cabbage - a commodity that can be stored for a long time, which means that manufacturers could they say" go into stocks. "This is typical for all non-perishable goods. As soon as the devaluation, manufacturers stopped selling because they understand that then it will be possible to make it more expensive ", - explained DW Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko.
Thus, adds Yuri Danilov, the main driving force was the food inflation is the devaluation of the population and uncertainty about the future: "For the vast majority of the only effective option for saving savings from depreciation steel bulk purchases of food and industrial goods. Property not available to all, and all other savings instruments were given clearly negative real rate of return. "
The next step - vegetables
A major role in the growth of prices of certain products and food played sanctions imposed by the Russian authorities. Because of them, rose fish, dairy products and meat. At the same time beef rose in price the least (just over 10 per cent), as is imported mainly from countries that do not fall under Russian sanctions. "Most of the affected antisanktsy pork, followed by the chicken and, despite the fact that the last Russian imports almost no", - says Dmitry Rylko. The secret, he says, is that when prices are rising pork, processors and people are switching to poultry.
Experts predict that in the coming year grain prices, as well as meat and milk should stabilize. However, the joy of the population is not increased, as expected significant growth in other categories of food - in the segment of fresh fruits and vegetables. "In the first half of the season is always sharply increased the share of imports of these goods, namely, he is now severely restricted," - said the head of the ICAR.
Forecast 2015
First Vice Prime Minister of Russia Arkady Dvorkovich said on December 26 that inflation in the coming year may be higher than 10 percent, while for certain types of goods, he did not rule out a more than 20-percent increase in prices. Yuri Danilov of Moscow State University notes that "Russia has never been such that inflation rose less than two years - when it began to grow, it is a minimum period required to fracture trends." According to him, the rate will depend on the actions of the Central Bank and the government. The optimistic forecast of economists - 10 percent, pessimistic - 30 percent.
Much will depend on how agriculture adapts to the new conditions, adds Dmitry Rylko. Today, according to his observations, there are two groups of factors that affect farmers. First - positive - includes opportunities for import substitution, rising food prices, and hence the margin, as well as additional subsidies from the state (about 20 billion rubles). The second group - the negative. "This is the high price of the means of production for agriculture, appreciation or even unavailability of loans - says CEO of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. - As a result, we see that $ 20 billion is not enough even to cover inflation in the investment sector for agriculture. "
Eulalia Samedova
Source: inosmi.ru
Inflation in Russia in 2014 will amount to about 11.5 percent. Hardest Expensive food. Leader in the growth of prices was the buckwheat. The new year is expected to surge in the cost of fruits and vegetables, experts warn.
Official inflation in Russia at the end of the year is almost double the projections of federal officials. Ministry of Economic Development expects that 2014 will end with a price growth of 6 per cent. Real growth, according to Finance Minister Anton Siluanova, 11.5 percent. At the same time, if you look at the statistics from Rosstat, for each product group price increase was tens of percent. According to experts, the main reason for the sharp devaluation of the ruble inflation served and bilateral sanctions. Ensure that the rise in prices will stop in the coming year, no one can. It is obvious that inflation will remain double-digit.
Champions with a long shelf life
Over the past year, according to Rosstat, the strongest in Russia grew buckwheat (about 80 percent), cabbage (over 44 percent), sugar (more than 38 percent), chicken and pork (about 27 percent). Also, more than 20 percent of the increased cost of apples, tomatoes, onions, fish and rice. Dairy products, cheese and sausage products have increased in price by 15 to 20 percent. Smaller increase in prices eggs, sunflower oil and wheat bread (less than 5 percent).
The price behavior of each of the product groups individually. For example, the rise in price of buckwheat is partly due to the fact that the fall in the Altai region, where buckwheat is grown mainly in Russia, suddenly the snow fell. This led to the emergence of panic, panic buying and - as a consequence - the rise in prices. At the same time, there are several common factors leading price increase. "Buckwheat and sugar - traditional Russian" anti-crisis "goods that are bought in the hard days in the first place, as long stored," - says the deputy director of the Center for Economic Policy Research Economics Faculty of Moscow State University. MV University Yuri Danilov.
As for the cabbage, here the main reason is the length of storage, although in this case it is used not buyers and sellers. "Cabbage - a commodity that can be stored for a long time, which means that manufacturers could they say" go into stocks. "This is typical for all non-perishable goods. As soon as the devaluation, manufacturers stopped selling because they understand that then it will be possible to make it more expensive ", - explained DW Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko.
Thus, adds Yuri Danilov, the main driving force was the food inflation is the devaluation of the population and uncertainty about the future: "For the vast majority of the only effective option for saving savings from depreciation steel bulk purchases of food and industrial goods. Property not available to all, and all other savings instruments were given clearly negative real rate of return. "
The next step - vegetables
A major role in the growth of prices of certain products and food played sanctions imposed by the Russian authorities. Because of them, rose fish, dairy products and meat. At the same time beef rose in price the least (just over 10 per cent), as is imported mainly from countries that do not fall under Russian sanctions. "Most of the affected antisanktsy pork, followed by the chicken and, despite the fact that the last Russian imports almost no", - says Dmitry Rylko. The secret, he says, is that when prices are rising pork, processors and people are switching to poultry.
Experts predict that in the coming year grain prices, as well as meat and milk should stabilize. However, the joy of the population is not increased, as expected significant growth in other categories of food - in the segment of fresh fruits and vegetables. "In the first half of the season is always sharply increased the share of imports of these goods, namely, he is now severely restricted," - said the head of the ICAR.
Forecast 2015
First Vice Prime Minister of Russia Arkady Dvorkovich said on December 26 that inflation in the coming year may be higher than 10 percent, while for certain types of goods, he did not rule out a more than 20-percent increase in prices. Yuri Danilov of Moscow State University notes that "Russia has never been such that inflation rose less than two years - when it began to grow, it is a minimum period required to fracture trends." According to him, the rate will depend on the actions of the Central Bank and the government. The optimistic forecast of economists - 10 percent, pessimistic - 30 percent.
Much will depend on how agriculture adapts to the new conditions, adds Dmitry Rylko. Today, according to his observations, there are two groups of factors that affect farmers. First - positive - includes opportunities for import substitution, rising food prices, and hence the margin, as well as additional subsidies from the state (about 20 billion rubles). The second group - the negative. "This is the high price of the means of production for agriculture, appreciation or even unavailability of loans - says CEO of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. - As a result, we see that $ 20 billion is not enough even to cover inflation in the investment sector for agriculture. "
Eulalia Samedova
Source: inosmi.ru
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