Is our economy can stand on the raid on the ruble? 09.06.2012 05:03Central Bank offered the market a new level of the course of the Russian currency./ / Elena Popova, Bankir.Rusobitie090612_155x116_1.jpg
financial market is not a new crisis, the euro is moving to a new
supranational financial institutions, the Central Bank demonstrates its
ability to support and protect a new level of appreciation of the ruble,
Russia is ready to repel external shocks - such optimism expressed by
experts at the "round table" "Ruble, euro, the dollar: the situation in the global currency market. "In
the "round table" was attended by Deputy Chairman of State Duma
Committee on Financial Markets, president of the Association of Regional
Banks, Anatoly Aksakov, a senior economist at the company "Troika
Dialog" Anton Struchenevsky, director of the Institute of Economics
Ruslan Grinberg, director of foreign exchange markets FG BCS Pavel
Andreev, assistant professor of "Capital
markets and financial engineering of the Russian Academy of National
Economy and the Public Service under the President of the Russian
Federation (RANHiGS) Basil Yakimkin.
Experts have argued about the exit of Greece from the eurozone, explained the effect of a weak ruble on the economy, given forecasts for inflation, have endorsed the actions of the Central Bank's devaluation of the smooth and showed confidence in Russia's readiness to withstand external shocks.Photo: Al Tahawi, Bankir.Ru nervous Amateurs, professionals earnIt is unlikely that the current crisis can be called a crisis, but rather a kind of a new phase in which investors panicked and again to realize that not all is smooth in the global economy, says Anton Struchenevsky. In his view, this kind of panic will occur twice a year, because the problem is major imbalances in the EU and the U.S. has not been solved.He recalled that in August-September last year had a similar situation - as discussed in the output of the euro area of Greece, the collapse of the euro, the ruble was also quite volatile on a background of serious outflow of capital from the country.In the current situation should not be afraid of increased volatility in the foreign exchange market. Today, the Central Bank allows the ruble fluctuate more than before the crisis in 2008, but it can I target the liquidity in the economy. Weak ruble is a mechanism that adds flexibility, the Russian economy, as domestic producers are beginning to win. Statistics have shown a slowdown in import growth in Q1 due to the relatively weak ruble.With him agreed Yakimkin Basil, who is also the current situation does not see a new crisis. "In fact, the crisis continues in 2008, but he is on the legs. Professionals in the current environment to actively make money. There kvazipanika of dilettantes who do not understand what's going on, fall into a state of uncertainty and buying foreign currency ", - he explained. In particular, last week held a fairly large redemptions of foreign currency in exchange for the ruble. According to experts, they are not justified, since the Central Bank's reserves are large enough to hold the ruble at a given passage to infinity.He noted that the retention of the ruble at the lower boundary of the currency corridor of the Central Bank spent more reserves than it is today. In the spring of the Central Bank redeemed $ 200 million a day to prevent the strengthening of our currency, the ruble is now the controller keeps the volume of the order of $ 60-70 million, this suggests that the financial market, there is no panic, the market is just waiting for developments in the U.S. and Europe.The experts noted that the decline in oil prices below $ 100 a barrel can be a challenge for the Russian economy, as the budget is calculated on the basis of $ 115 per barrel. The majority of those present were optimistic, and expressed that the $ 90-100 per barrel - a comfortable rate for the Russian economy. The decrease of budget revenues from export duties and taxes on the extraction of mineral resources, offset by the weakness of the ruble. In this case, we must not forget that the budgets of OPEC countries are balanced in the range of $ 90-100 per barrel, and the governments of these countries are not interested in lowering oil prices below this level.Do not share the optimism of his colleagues in the medium term, Pavel Andreev. To compare the current crisis on the euro zone crisis in 2008 is not entirely correct, since the 2008 crisis was only in the U.S. and Russia reserve the shock, he said. Now the crisis is a major trading partner of Russia, the consumer of petroleum and its derivatives. "If oil prices fall to $ 90, we do not feel, if up to $ 75 and it will last about six months, the blow to Russia's budget will be serious and it is revenge on the ruble. Our reserves of 500 billion is enough for half a year. Next would have to patch budget holes and hold on the market "- diluted optimistic colleagues Pavel Andreev.Giving projections of the ruble at the end of the year, experts have noted the unpredictability of the market and states that rely on their feelings. Pavel Andreev said that the dollar will cost 33 rubles, Ruslan Grinberg did not rule out that the ruble can go to level 34-35, the rest of the experts tended to 31-32 rubles.The current exchange rate objective, it corresponds to its intrinsic value, which determines not only the price of oil, but also the state of our economy, said Anatoly Aksakov. In his view, for the execution of the budget necessary to support the ruble on the parameters, which are now developed.The range of forecasts of inflation was more: Anton Struchenevsky believes that there is every reason to believe that inflation for the year will be at 5% level. One reason for hope - a slowdown in monetary growth. "It is difficult to predict the behavior of the economy with a combination of smooth devaluation and tariffs of natural monopolies jump from 1 July, so do not be surprised if inflation for the year will be 10%" - expressed the opinion Ruslan Grinberg. The other experts shied away from specific numbers, confining such comments as "not go beyond a two-digit value", "will be higher than last year."Is Russia ready to balance on a barrel of oil?Changing the policy of the Central Bank in the exchange rate, the experts rated positively. The proposed regulator of smooth devaluation of our currency creates a protective mechanism for the economy, enabling it to keep a good external shocks, says Anton Struchenevsky.In his view, a more flexible approach to currency management helps the budget. Now balance the budget, based on the price of oil at $ 110 per barrel, which corresponds to 29 rubles per dollar. If the average oil price will be $ 80 per barrel and the ruble exchange rate will be 36 rubles, or less. In this case, the budget deficit will be about 3% of GDP. This is a new reality with which it is possible to handle, add flexibility to our economy, I'm sure Anton Struchenevsky.In terms of tools and experience of the Central Bank and the government are ready to shocks better than in 2008, believes Anatoly Aksakov.Russia is ready for the crisis, but it is not ready for a recession. Slow recovery after the fall would lead to serious consequences. The dollar is higher than 40 rubles will lead to the fact that the population, who scored credits in foreign currency will start to pick them honestly earned credit cars, apartments, painted a scenario, shakes the political stability Pavel Andreev.We are now in a different situation than in 2008. Companies have been cautious in external borrowing, so I'm optimistic about the margin of the Russian economy and Basil Yakimkin.What will end game of poker between Greeks and GermansProblems in the euro clearer all designated Ruslan Grinberg, "The last outbreak of nervousness in the euro area is associated with the uncertainty on the game of poker between Greeks and Germans. There are mutual deterrence, but not five minutes to twelve the problem will be solved. This will happen after the election. Winners sworn allegiance to the agreement with the EU, and will continue the policy of austerity, but they do it will be very difficult. "In his view, the crisis in Europe could only be overcome by increasing the role of national authorities, but the EU is not ready for a single Ministry of Finance and to make adjustments in Brussels intervened in the budgets of member countries in the eurozone.According to Ruslan Grinberg, the EU now prevents the contradiction - on the one hand the level of integration requires a common monetary and fiscal policy, on the other side - none of the countries did not want to cede their sovereignty.He believes that the German government in the first place sorry for not taxpayers, and themselves, as in the upcoming elections, Angela Merkel will have to explain why it is necessary to save the southern countries in the eurozone and especially Greece.Office of Greece from the EU is good for Greece, I'm sure Anatoly Aksakov. Working on the basis of its national currency, the country's economy will recover quickly due to cheap labor and goods.Anatoly Aksakov harder looks at the situation. He believes that Europe as a single organism is sick and its recovery should be cut off to Greece, which struck with cancer. Without surgery, Europe is doomed to a painful recovery.There was no cancer there, the example of Greece, we observe the law of uneven development, did not agree with my colleague Ruslan Grinberg. In his opinion, better than cure painful collapse of the euro area. "Who would want the wonderful German goods, if it were not for the single currency? Greece does not produce BMW and Mercedes, their economy is held for 3-4 products. They have fish, freight and tourism and they are family members, they can not drive, saying that they are tan and do not work. It's like Sicily, where warm and sleep after dinner, cut off from Italy. And what, then Italy will have a better life? "If Greece will withdraw from the EU once the question arises - who's next. And it will have crazy pressure on the markets. In order to stop the cataclysm of southern Europe, it is necessary to move towards the United States of Europe, the other is not given, said Vasily Yakimkin.-------------------------------------------------- -----------Watch these round tables and listen to the experts notebooks impossible without tears.It remains to investigate whether it is tears of laughter, or the impenetrable stupidity of the round table?In the beginning we read: "Central Bank demonstrates its ability to support and protect a new level of appreciation of the ruble!"! A new course as it has arisen?Central Bank is obliged under the Constitution of Article 75 of n2. "To protect and ensure the stability of the ruble - the basic function of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation ...".What we are seeing? And we see how the Central Bank lowered the ruble for some 10 days more than 12% of these insolent scribblers write that "the Central Bank demonstrates its ability to support and protect a new level of appreciation of the ruble!" How does this all mean?Incidentally, the requirement that the Central Bank is obliged to keep a strong currency is in the law of the CBR, but the leadership of the Central Bank does not consider it necessary to perform. But the round table, instead of asking the CBR, the CBR is why leadership ignores the Constitution and the Federal Law on the Central Bank of Russia, begin to be smart. They say, "Amateurs are nervous, professionals earn," ie, Financial speculators are enriched and impoverished people, and at the same time nervous. And it is necessary, apparently unconcerned about the fact that you were robbed in broad daylight, and even with the CBR.
Indeed, why be nervous, because people are being robbed for the development of domestic economy, says Anton Struchenevsky "weak ruble is a mechanism that adds the flexibility of the Russian economy, as domestic producers are beginning to win." What are the domestic producers benefit and why Struchenevsky once modestly silent, except as suppliers of raw materials on world markets is not winning none. The world market is not much in the Russian manufacturer of any significant size, but the parts for Russian companies immediately increase in value as the cost of credit. As regards the flexibility of the economy is simply a gem, and probably understood that the Russian economy with a weak ruble can be more tightly bend in the interests of the financial oligarchy.And how they talk!!! One said that the dollar will cost 32 rubles, while the other does not exclude that goes into a zone of 34-35 rubles, the third to tie it all with the price of oil and managed to screw up a smart question The fourth accused in the whole of the Greeks! In both!And what about in reality? In fact, we observe how the ruling plutocracy in Russia seeks to maintain the stability of its revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons to world markets, and when falling oil prices, the Central Bank lowered the ruble against the dollar, ignoring the Constitution. and the Federal Law on the Central Bank, thereby maintaining a stable ruble revenues oligarchy.
----------------------------
Of course, all this "expert" imitation, supposedly analyzes the global and domestic economy, there is a very specific angle. Namely, from the perspective of the euro-dollar forex.Who can argue - for God's sake!Arguably, however, that this, speculative traders' point of view imposed on us with you as a "scientific view" on the national economy, the unfortunate modern Russia.Q: What is the difference raped by the Soviet people as a national-resolved International credit intrigue Greece and Germany (which, incidentally, received their current national state from the hands of G. Zhukov and Stalin!), If they were holy once safeguarding its national interests , shake, in one direction or another, the current exchange rate?Yes, no! For now the situation is as if the dollar was sitting at the Adam's apple on his back in the overturned Russia, "struggling" with the Euro, which is perched in the same place, but ... (a great difference!) On the bridge of her? And the more they aktivnichayut, the more painful to live and breathe unhappy heirs Marshal and Generalissimo.A Central Bank, which simply serves the global status of aforesaid main currency pair, simply "edited" by the mouth of the expert appointees, dying death rattle fragment of the Soviet economy, giving them praise for the "hymns" of its own alleged "financial wisdom ..."
Kazarin Michael, an accountant from Perm.
Experts have argued about the exit of Greece from the eurozone, explained the effect of a weak ruble on the economy, given forecasts for inflation, have endorsed the actions of the Central Bank's devaluation of the smooth and showed confidence in Russia's readiness to withstand external shocks.Photo: Al Tahawi, Bankir.Ru nervous Amateurs, professionals earnIt is unlikely that the current crisis can be called a crisis, but rather a kind of a new phase in which investors panicked and again to realize that not all is smooth in the global economy, says Anton Struchenevsky. In his view, this kind of panic will occur twice a year, because the problem is major imbalances in the EU and the U.S. has not been solved.He recalled that in August-September last year had a similar situation - as discussed in the output of the euro area of Greece, the collapse of the euro, the ruble was also quite volatile on a background of serious outflow of capital from the country.In the current situation should not be afraid of increased volatility in the foreign exchange market. Today, the Central Bank allows the ruble fluctuate more than before the crisis in 2008, but it can I target the liquidity in the economy. Weak ruble is a mechanism that adds flexibility, the Russian economy, as domestic producers are beginning to win. Statistics have shown a slowdown in import growth in Q1 due to the relatively weak ruble.With him agreed Yakimkin Basil, who is also the current situation does not see a new crisis. "In fact, the crisis continues in 2008, but he is on the legs. Professionals in the current environment to actively make money. There kvazipanika of dilettantes who do not understand what's going on, fall into a state of uncertainty and buying foreign currency ", - he explained. In particular, last week held a fairly large redemptions of foreign currency in exchange for the ruble. According to experts, they are not justified, since the Central Bank's reserves are large enough to hold the ruble at a given passage to infinity.He noted that the retention of the ruble at the lower boundary of the currency corridor of the Central Bank spent more reserves than it is today. In the spring of the Central Bank redeemed $ 200 million a day to prevent the strengthening of our currency, the ruble is now the controller keeps the volume of the order of $ 60-70 million, this suggests that the financial market, there is no panic, the market is just waiting for developments in the U.S. and Europe.The experts noted that the decline in oil prices below $ 100 a barrel can be a challenge for the Russian economy, as the budget is calculated on the basis of $ 115 per barrel. The majority of those present were optimistic, and expressed that the $ 90-100 per barrel - a comfortable rate for the Russian economy. The decrease of budget revenues from export duties and taxes on the extraction of mineral resources, offset by the weakness of the ruble. In this case, we must not forget that the budgets of OPEC countries are balanced in the range of $ 90-100 per barrel, and the governments of these countries are not interested in lowering oil prices below this level.Do not share the optimism of his colleagues in the medium term, Pavel Andreev. To compare the current crisis on the euro zone crisis in 2008 is not entirely correct, since the 2008 crisis was only in the U.S. and Russia reserve the shock, he said. Now the crisis is a major trading partner of Russia, the consumer of petroleum and its derivatives. "If oil prices fall to $ 90, we do not feel, if up to $ 75 and it will last about six months, the blow to Russia's budget will be serious and it is revenge on the ruble. Our reserves of 500 billion is enough for half a year. Next would have to patch budget holes and hold on the market "- diluted optimistic colleagues Pavel Andreev.Giving projections of the ruble at the end of the year, experts have noted the unpredictability of the market and states that rely on their feelings. Pavel Andreev said that the dollar will cost 33 rubles, Ruslan Grinberg did not rule out that the ruble can go to level 34-35, the rest of the experts tended to 31-32 rubles.The current exchange rate objective, it corresponds to its intrinsic value, which determines not only the price of oil, but also the state of our economy, said Anatoly Aksakov. In his view, for the execution of the budget necessary to support the ruble on the parameters, which are now developed.The range of forecasts of inflation was more: Anton Struchenevsky believes that there is every reason to believe that inflation for the year will be at 5% level. One reason for hope - a slowdown in monetary growth. "It is difficult to predict the behavior of the economy with a combination of smooth devaluation and tariffs of natural monopolies jump from 1 July, so do not be surprised if inflation for the year will be 10%" - expressed the opinion Ruslan Grinberg. The other experts shied away from specific numbers, confining such comments as "not go beyond a two-digit value", "will be higher than last year."Is Russia ready to balance on a barrel of oil?Changing the policy of the Central Bank in the exchange rate, the experts rated positively. The proposed regulator of smooth devaluation of our currency creates a protective mechanism for the economy, enabling it to keep a good external shocks, says Anton Struchenevsky.In his view, a more flexible approach to currency management helps the budget. Now balance the budget, based on the price of oil at $ 110 per barrel, which corresponds to 29 rubles per dollar. If the average oil price will be $ 80 per barrel and the ruble exchange rate will be 36 rubles, or less. In this case, the budget deficit will be about 3% of GDP. This is a new reality with which it is possible to handle, add flexibility to our economy, I'm sure Anton Struchenevsky.In terms of tools and experience of the Central Bank and the government are ready to shocks better than in 2008, believes Anatoly Aksakov.Russia is ready for the crisis, but it is not ready for a recession. Slow recovery after the fall would lead to serious consequences. The dollar is higher than 40 rubles will lead to the fact that the population, who scored credits in foreign currency will start to pick them honestly earned credit cars, apartments, painted a scenario, shakes the political stability Pavel Andreev.We are now in a different situation than in 2008. Companies have been cautious in external borrowing, so I'm optimistic about the margin of the Russian economy and Basil Yakimkin.What will end game of poker between Greeks and GermansProblems in the euro clearer all designated Ruslan Grinberg, "The last outbreak of nervousness in the euro area is associated with the uncertainty on the game of poker between Greeks and Germans. There are mutual deterrence, but not five minutes to twelve the problem will be solved. This will happen after the election. Winners sworn allegiance to the agreement with the EU, and will continue the policy of austerity, but they do it will be very difficult. "In his view, the crisis in Europe could only be overcome by increasing the role of national authorities, but the EU is not ready for a single Ministry of Finance and to make adjustments in Brussels intervened in the budgets of member countries in the eurozone.According to Ruslan Grinberg, the EU now prevents the contradiction - on the one hand the level of integration requires a common monetary and fiscal policy, on the other side - none of the countries did not want to cede their sovereignty.He believes that the German government in the first place sorry for not taxpayers, and themselves, as in the upcoming elections, Angela Merkel will have to explain why it is necessary to save the southern countries in the eurozone and especially Greece.Office of Greece from the EU is good for Greece, I'm sure Anatoly Aksakov. Working on the basis of its national currency, the country's economy will recover quickly due to cheap labor and goods.Anatoly Aksakov harder looks at the situation. He believes that Europe as a single organism is sick and its recovery should be cut off to Greece, which struck with cancer. Without surgery, Europe is doomed to a painful recovery.There was no cancer there, the example of Greece, we observe the law of uneven development, did not agree with my colleague Ruslan Grinberg. In his opinion, better than cure painful collapse of the euro area. "Who would want the wonderful German goods, if it were not for the single currency? Greece does not produce BMW and Mercedes, their economy is held for 3-4 products. They have fish, freight and tourism and they are family members, they can not drive, saying that they are tan and do not work. It's like Sicily, where warm and sleep after dinner, cut off from Italy. And what, then Italy will have a better life? "If Greece will withdraw from the EU once the question arises - who's next. And it will have crazy pressure on the markets. In order to stop the cataclysm of southern Europe, it is necessary to move towards the United States of Europe, the other is not given, said Vasily Yakimkin.-------------------------------------------------- -----------Watch these round tables and listen to the experts notebooks impossible without tears.It remains to investigate whether it is tears of laughter, or the impenetrable stupidity of the round table?In the beginning we read: "Central Bank demonstrates its ability to support and protect a new level of appreciation of the ruble!"! A new course as it has arisen?Central Bank is obliged under the Constitution of Article 75 of n2. "To protect and ensure the stability of the ruble - the basic function of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation ...".What we are seeing? And we see how the Central Bank lowered the ruble for some 10 days more than 12% of these insolent scribblers write that "the Central Bank demonstrates its ability to support and protect a new level of appreciation of the ruble!" How does this all mean?Incidentally, the requirement that the Central Bank is obliged to keep a strong currency is in the law of the CBR, but the leadership of the Central Bank does not consider it necessary to perform. But the round table, instead of asking the CBR, the CBR is why leadership ignores the Constitution and the Federal Law on the Central Bank of Russia, begin to be smart. They say, "Amateurs are nervous, professionals earn," ie, Financial speculators are enriched and impoverished people, and at the same time nervous. And it is necessary, apparently unconcerned about the fact that you were robbed in broad daylight, and even with the CBR.
Indeed, why be nervous, because people are being robbed for the development of domestic economy, says Anton Struchenevsky "weak ruble is a mechanism that adds the flexibility of the Russian economy, as domestic producers are beginning to win." What are the domestic producers benefit and why Struchenevsky once modestly silent, except as suppliers of raw materials on world markets is not winning none. The world market is not much in the Russian manufacturer of any significant size, but the parts for Russian companies immediately increase in value as the cost of credit. As regards the flexibility of the economy is simply a gem, and probably understood that the Russian economy with a weak ruble can be more tightly bend in the interests of the financial oligarchy.And how they talk!!! One said that the dollar will cost 32 rubles, while the other does not exclude that goes into a zone of 34-35 rubles, the third to tie it all with the price of oil and managed to screw up a smart question The fourth accused in the whole of the Greeks! In both!And what about in reality? In fact, we observe how the ruling plutocracy in Russia seeks to maintain the stability of its revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons to world markets, and when falling oil prices, the Central Bank lowered the ruble against the dollar, ignoring the Constitution. and the Federal Law on the Central Bank, thereby maintaining a stable ruble revenues oligarchy.
----------------------------
Of course, all this "expert" imitation, supposedly analyzes the global and domestic economy, there is a very specific angle. Namely, from the perspective of the euro-dollar forex.Who can argue - for God's sake!Arguably, however, that this, speculative traders' point of view imposed on us with you as a "scientific view" on the national economy, the unfortunate modern Russia.Q: What is the difference raped by the Soviet people as a national-resolved International credit intrigue Greece and Germany (which, incidentally, received their current national state from the hands of G. Zhukov and Stalin!), If they were holy once safeguarding its national interests , shake, in one direction or another, the current exchange rate?Yes, no! For now the situation is as if the dollar was sitting at the Adam's apple on his back in the overturned Russia, "struggling" with the Euro, which is perched in the same place, but ... (a great difference!) On the bridge of her? And the more they aktivnichayut, the more painful to live and breathe unhappy heirs Marshal and Generalissimo.A Central Bank, which simply serves the global status of aforesaid main currency pair, simply "edited" by the mouth of the expert appointees, dying death rattle fragment of the Soviet economy, giving them praise for the "hymns" of its own alleged "financial wisdom ..."
Kazarin Michael, an accountant from Perm.
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