Elvira : annual inflation in Russia could reach 5,8-6,1 % by mid-year
14.02.2014, 16:03 | « BBC »
Annual inflation in Russia could reach 5,8-6,1 % by the middle of this year , but it will happen after slowing to 5% by the end of the year from the current level of 6.1 % , RIA "Novosti" with reference to the statement of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina .
"We proceed from the fact that inflation in the first half of the year will be between 5,8-6,1 % by the end of the year to reach the level of 5% ," - said Elvira .
According to the Central Bank, on February 10 this year, the annual inflation rate was 6.1 %. In 2013, prices rose by 6.5%. Economic Development Ministry official forecast for inflation in 2014 is 4.5-5.5 % with 4.8% reference point , but due to the weakening of the ruble possible adjustment to 5.2-5.3 %.
Central Bank also believes that the ruble is undervalued given the state of the current operations of the course .
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The Bank of Russia is not involved in the rise in prices, since it is not the ruble falls , and the price of food is increasing .
Invincible and uncontrollable inflation
Inflation in Russia since the beginning of the year exceeded two percentPrices in Russia since the beginning of the year increased by 2.1 percent . This is stated in the official press release of Rosstat.According to Rosstat , a week from 9 to 15 February 2010, inflation in the country was 0.2 per cent , and since the beginning of this month - 0.4 percent. A year earlier, in general, in February prices rose 1.7 percent.In the second decade of February 2010 in Russia grew stronger all vegetables - by 1.3 percent . Buckwheat, cheese, dairy products rose in price by 1,1-2,6 percent. Pork , pasta , chicken and wheat flour , by contrast, fell by 0.1-0.3 percent.According to government forecasts , inflation in Russia in 2010 will be 6.5-7.5 percent. In 2009, the rise in prices in the country was 8.8 percent, significantly decreased in comparison with 2008 (13.3 per cent ) . The reason was the crisis seriously reduce demand for many commodities .February 16 , Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised that in the next few years, Russia will be able to enter the European inflation figures - 3-5 percent. In 2009, in the EU , prices rose by an average of 1.4 percent.
When you read the statements of members of the Government and Ministry of Finance officials on combating inflation, can not escape the feeling of running in place. They are all fighting , doing " incredible " effort , and inflation all upsets and overturns their forecasts.
Judge for yourself .
In early 2006, we read in the newspaper "Vedomosti":
"The government can not keep inflation within the planned range . During the first half of February , prices rose by 0 , 8 % , and by the end of the month , inflation could reach 1 , 2%, economists predict . According ambitious forecast of Economic Development, the rise in prices in 2006 should not be over 7 5-8 %. But the January statistics put this task into question ... In the first two weeks of February, inflation stood at 0 , 8 % , said yesterday Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov . In February last year, prices rose by 1, 2 %.
According to the published data of Economic Development, in February inflation may reach 1.3-1.5 % , and by the end of the first two months of the year - is 3.9%. It seems that 9 per cent annual growth plank prices established in the budget as much as we can be overcome much earlier period.
Seeing that the situation goes out of control, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has accused the government of carrying out a weak financial policy. In response, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov accuses the Minister of Finance in the global savings glut of money that " desperately needed in the energy sector ." " And there is no smell inflation ," - said the head of government .
" When the government approves the budget for the current year (2006) we were promised to keep a tight rein on inflation . And not let go for 8, 5 % for all of 2006 . Moreover, puffing out his cheeks , officials said that they are quite capable 2008 to drive it into the framework of 3 - 4%. Alas, it took only two months , and stubborn inflation wiped nose our financial authorities : defeated half of their annual plan "- writes the correspondent of the newspaper " Komsomolskaya Pravda " Valery Bhutan.
It took a half years , and we once again hear the government struggles with inflation, which also successfully overcomes these hapless wrestlers.
Inflation, which so vain , "fights" the Finance Ministry is not reduced. Second consecutive month, prices are rising faster than in 2006, the Finance Ministry and members of the government hastily looking for excuses higher prices and the depreciation of the ruble , not wanting to look in the mirror .
Ministry of Finance believes that the summer will help rectify the situation deflation, which depends on the harvest .
"The Central Bank could not tear inflation on oil prices ," writes "Gazeta" .
" ... Responsible for the project of monetary policy yesterday had the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev . To soften hawkish deputies first thing he told me how hard it is to work to the Central Bank ." Central Bank forecasts inflation of 5.2 % , and up to year - at around 8 %. Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank takes credit for the influx failed to sterilize.
One of the reasons for its rapid growth , according to the Central Bank deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev - a record inflow of capital. Money supply for the year , including in April , rose by 57.3 %. For such money growth May inflation figures are quite low , says Oksana Osipova of the Center for Development , much more influenced by inflation in May rise in prices for fruit and vegetables - 7.8% ( 2.6 % last year ) . "Nobody thought it would be such a drastic leap " - the economist said the bank "Trust" Yevgeny Nadorshin . Non-food goods and services became more expensive in May moderate , but rising prices for construction materials : cement - by 5.4% , on a brick - by 4.6%. Officials still expect that inflation in 2007 will keep within 8 % (in 2006 it was 9%). Ministry of Finance believes that the summer will help rectify the situation deflation .
"Kommersant "
"The pace of price growth accelerated " ( Alexey Shapovalov ) : " The government hopes that they will stop deflation . Yesterday, Rosstat reported on the acceleration of inflation in May 2007 , when the average price growth rate increased by 0.02 % against 0.015% in May 2006 . Central Bank predicts convergence of price growth from last year . Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin still hopes that inflationary government plan in 2007 will be executed if his expectations are met in the autumn of deflation . "
Our officials are constantly explaining the causes of inflation and rising prices , and if it does not rise in oil prices , the inflow of capital , unless the inflow of capital, the growth of wages , etc. , etc.
But who seek to achieve the desired result , he is looking for ways and who only means one finds an explanation.
And the acute power crisis , the more evident discrepancy between reality and reflection of this reality in the media. This discrepancy has become so obvious that even loyal to the government newspaper "Izvestia" spoke about this and published an article by Anna Kaledins " Food prices are rising faster than inflation ."
When announce the official inflation data , it is nothing but bewilderment they did not cause . - Outraged Kaledina - All we go shopping and see how prices are rising . Wallet emptied all swiftly , and the " paper " inflation each year falls . Very revealing in this sense has become the past week. We were informed that in June , prices rose by 1%. For summer rate is high, but not fatal . But at the same time the cost of the minimum set of products for June increased by 4.8% since the beginning of the year - by 13.1% . That explanation our bewilderment . "
"For example, in June the cost of the minimum food basket grew by almost 5 times more than inflation . Just to keep from starving Russians in June had to spend on food at least 1666.3 rubles (in Moscow - 2020.3 rubles) . "
Indignant falsity of official statistics , and telling readers how to find it difficult to live , even though they know so much about this , Kaledina told that " index " Big Mac " the dollar should cost 15 rubles."
So what? Should and should not . Here it would be worth Kaledins and try to understand the cause of this phenomenon. Who is interested in such a discrepancy value of the ruble , and who spins inflation , giving false figures ? But she chose to act in the spirit of his newspaper - what I see , I sing , afraid to call a spade a spade .
So what, then indignant , since truth and remains in tuna ? And just because silent about it , it is no longer tolerable.
From 1 to 22 October , inflation in Russia amounted to 1.3 %, from the beginning of the year prices rose by 8.9% , now their growth for the year may exceed 10% , according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin .
To fight inflation, Kudrin recalled , used export and import duties . By region , a wave of price fixing , the leading retail chains and manufacturers froze prices on six key items until 31 January . FAS filed in 17 regions of 40 cases . Measures have helped , says Kudrin : the second half of October rise in food prices slowed by half.
But core inflation continues to accelerate . In September, she was a record 1.6% in October, according to Kudrin estimated to grow by 1.5-2% .
Gazette
05.05.2010 11:35:15
Will not be cheaper
Central Bank promises surge of inflation
Eugene Arsyukhin
Prices will go up in the summer , said Thursday the Russian Central Bank. And while inflation is still low, the Central Bank want to take the last chance to help Russian companies . On April 30, the refinancing rate again reduced , so that the plants will be cheaper loans . When inflation will accelerate , will have to forget about these bounties .
If the crisis was any good , just in low inflation. What happened, what the government and the Central Bank have dreamed for many years. In 2008, prices rose by 13.3 %, in 2009 - just 8.8% . Some grumble - it could be less , as in Europe or the United States . But everything is relative . In the " fat zero " of such parameters could only dream . Then monopolists at times inflated prices that gasoline , then bread , then square meters living - and nothing but verbal condemnation, for them it was not. People will still buy , they reasoned . And people were buying , because their incomes have grown . Fueled inflation and housing prices , and " speculative" capital that exploded in the country , and ultimately - irresistibly rising prices for oil and other raw materials .
But regular crisis happened : incomes have declined, merchants began to beware of cranking the numbers on the price tags for no reason . Now the recession is over , loomed on the horizon and a new " era of fat ," but to get to it , we have to pay you.
On Thursday, the board of directors of the Central Bank lowered the refinancing rate , but promised that the second half of the inflation in Russia will begin to grow . Why "but" what 's the connection ? The fact that the low rate of refinancing helps take cheap loans .
Banks borrow from the Central Bank refinancing rate and resell these businesses money with some wrap . The lower the base rate , and the lower end . But the thing is that the rate reduction is possible only in conditions of low inflation . While she was abnormally low, so the Central Bank decided to use the latter, probably could help the domestic industry.
Rate has been reduced from today to 8%. And this is the thirteenth decline over the last year . The report of the Central Bank said that in April remained favorable dynamics of the consumer price index , " which creates the conditions for a reduction in interest rates of the Bank of Russia." It is really so . From 1 to 26 April , according to Rosstat , inflation was only 0.3%. This is nothing . In March, for the entire month accumulated 0.6% in April , therefore, would be even less.
If we calculate the annual inflation rate , then the January rate she would have received 8.1% , and now - around 6.5% or even less. Against this background, it is safe to do borrowed money cheaper and realized that the Central Bank.
But in the second half could start rising inflation, the central bank warns . In the future, the Central Bank will have to closely monitor the macroeconomic situation , and most importantly , to analyze how credit money affected the economy . The central bank did not go into the reasons for the possible growth of inflation in the future , although they are obvious. The crisis ended . In the pockets of money appeared . Demand revives .
More precisely, begin to revive . Rising incomes are already evident . Hotheads say they have almost caught up with the pre-crisis level (although many would disagree ) . Another thing that people spend money not yet ready - prefer to dig . According to the first quarter , the cost of buying grow twice slower than revenues . But it is up to the pores. The State encourages consumption. For example, put forward the scrapping program . Summer holidays will complete the picture. People relax , withdraw their money from deposits and will carry them into megamalls .
Here at this time shopping online and will increase the " cheat " . All this is covered more than once . Once people have money , traders begin to shoot superprofits . Most immoral in this situation - that the state struggled increases incomes , pension increases and the like, but because of the greed merchants lion's share of this increase is in the pockets of businessmen .
The rise in prices is beginning to assert itself . During the first quarter rose 12% utility services, which are much higher than the rate of inflation. Column headed , of course , gasoline - this versatile harbinger of change. Although in the first quarter and he fell from the first days of April began to go up. Here you have the first confirmation of dire predictions of the Central Bank .
Alexander Orlov , managing director of investment company " Arbat Capital " :
- I think inflation will rise . Partly because of the next refinance rate . But the main reason - to finally reach Russia increased earnings from rising prices for oil and gas . This will increase liquidity in the country. Which, of course , is not the best sign, but not the worst . The only thing that can prevent the growth of inflation - the collapse of the Greek economy . If Greece will default , it will be comparable with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Banks no longer lend money to each other , the money supply collapses . Plus, this will lower oil prices . All this will lead to a reduction in the economy and the strong devaluation.
Igor Nikolayev , director of the FBK Strategic Analysis Department :
- I think the central bank is right: inflation will accelerate . In fact, if there will be a change in the exchange rate (dollar would start to weaken and the dollar strengthened ), the Central Bank would be powerless. Increased rates of refinancing will not save , they will have to be reduced, and this situation is very likely. All markets are overheated speculative . When there are bubbles , they will sooner or later burst. My prediction is that by the end of the year the situation will be like at the end of 2008.
10:24 30.04.10
19.12.2010 What products in 2011 will become a delicacy
Rising food prices in Russia ahead of the official inflation rate . Research and Information Department of the Central Bank presented a report , according to which in 2008 the official inflation rate in Russia was 13.3 %. At the same time food , fruits and vegetables , taking into account , for the year rose by 16.5%. In 2009, good year , with an overall rate of inflation of 8.8% , food prices in Russia rose 6.1 %.
In 2010, the situation is reversed . Prices for fruits and vegetables on the background of a summer drought and destruction of the crop , to the end of November, immediately jumped by 34%. While inflation was 7.6 %, while food prices rose by a total of 10.6%.
Director of the Department of Financial Markets Operations Bank of Russia Sergei Shvetsov said that due to high world food prices spike central bank fears inflation. The banker noted that food prices will remain high throughout 2011 .
In November this year the indicator FAO Food Price Index Data, which shows the development of average prices of 55 food items of different groups approached the peak levels of 2008.
In 2002-2004, the index was at levels of 90 - 110 points (level set at 100 ) . In the midst of the global financial crisis in 2008 exceeded 210. In the second half of 2010 after a decline that is associated with the release of the crisis economies , food prices rose sharply again . At this sugar rose by 18 % , oils and fats 50 % , 30% corn , 16% meat . Total index FAO Food Price Index Data rose 21 % to 205.4 .
The death of the crop in 2010 broke up food prices . According to forecasts of the Economic Development Ministry , in December , consumer prices in Russia could grow by 0.8%. Thus the real surge in prices may be higher , experts say.
"I do not see the prerequisites to ensure that prices remain in place or falling . All shows that they grew up , grow and will grow . We , unfortunately, when it improved the situation , prices are not falling . Reduce prices if there is a sudden decline in demand , there are strong competitors . And so - nothing good I can not predict , "- said the expert of Retail Training Group Elena Komkova .
The main problem , according to her - is the growth in input prices . " Retail is the only link in the chain . " Large companies , including X5, " Auchan" and others - tried by reducing the margins to keep prices down . Especially at the moment because of the mad rush cereals . But if there are input prices rise , it is clear that retail will regain it . And so it becomes more difficult to make shopping - because of restrictions on the sale of alcohol , if you introduce a ban on the entry of transport will also have to make some changes , "- says Elena Komkova .
Interviewed experts shared the view that food prices in Russia and in the world have the potential for growth. Presumably growth will meet the world , and when negative conjuncture even outstrip them .
" We conducted a study on food staples and found regularity - a composite food index is in opposition with the index of industrial production of goods . And if two years have passed under the slogan of restoring it to the prices of manufactured goods , in the long term we are waiting for rise in food prices ," - says the head of the analytical department of FC " infinitesimal " Alexander Ivanischev . The expert also emphasizes that world prices are measured in dollars and paper money obetsenivayutsya .
U.S. authorities have already announced that the price of skimmed milk powder may grow by 39%. Analysts JPMorgan Chase & Co. predict a surge in sugar prices by 25% and rice 60%.
IA " Alliance Media" based on "Business Petersburg"
Date: 16/05/2011 15:28:51
Stepashin: rise in prices this year will break for forward frame by 7.5 %
Authorities promised slowdown in inflation this year may not take place - head of the Audit Chamber Sergei Stepashin warned about exceeding the planned target of 7.5 %. He noted that on May 3 inflation since the beginning of the year was 4.3 % , and by the end of the month , it "may be higher than in April."
Exceeding the planned price growth , according to him , can contribute non-competitive pricing on many types of goods and services to the largest Russian companies , as well as monetary factors .
Chapter SP noted that the money supply in Russia in April of this year increased by more than 26 % compared to April last year . Retained a high level of consolidated debt : in the first quarter , it exceeded 504 billion dollars, almost equal to the volume of international reserves.
Excluding the National Welfare Fund and the Reserve Fund international reserves , according to Stepashin , 118 billion ( almost a quarter ) below consolidated foreign debt of the Russian Federation , cites " Nezavisimaya Gazeta " .
Meanwhile, in the Budget Act 2011 laid the inflation rate of 6%. Deputy Finance Minister Anton Siluanov in the State Duma on May 13 said that this figure will be revised upwards - to 6.5-7 %. However, Stepashin casts doubt this forecast , assuming that the acceleration of inflation in the first months of 2011 will not let her keep . Since the beginning of the rise in prices in Russia amounted to 4.3%.
Pessimistic and EC experts - they predict inflation in Russia this year at 9.4 % and 8.2 % - in 2012 . Recall that in 2010 inflation in the country reached 8.8% in 2009 - 8.8% , 2008 - 13.3%.
Inflation will come forward for the framework , confident and Director of Strategic Analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev : " After the jump in gasoline prices after the information about the next global rising food prices that was evident - he explains . - Rising prices in Russia will be much higher assumptions who built power. during the year, the figure will be higher than 10 %. But this level may not be definitive, given the pre-election period and the temptation to distribute the money . "
24.08.2012 18:38:26
It turns out that the inflation rate of 7% for Russian citizens is a trifle!
Rising inflation Russians probably not yet affected , but it can be a turning point for the Russian economy
Weather expert 23.08.12 15:20
Yekaterinburg, August 23 (New Region Alexei Belyanin ) - Ministry of Economic Development has issued a negative outlook for inflation in Russia for the year . Rise in inflation to 7% nonessential Russians likely to afford it will not feel . However , according to experts , a further acceleration in the rate of inflation may be a turning point and show the unsustainability of the current economic model in Russia . In addition, the wake-up call for the Russian economy is slowing of GDP growth .
Russian Ministry of Economic Development today released the adjusted forecast for inflation in 2012 . The figures were worse than expected in April - 7 % for the year against the 5-6% predicted previously . The main causes of inflation , according to the Ministry , two : the food factor and the weakening of the ruble, observed in recent months. In this case , the food factor is the substantial increase in world prices for grain and other crops due to drought in the United States and Russia .
Further experts' forecasts as unfavorable . According to federal publications total inflation at 7 % - this is the minimum that is waiting for the Russian economy. Moreover, in the first quarter of 2013 , annual inflation could reach about 8% compared to 3.6 % in May this year .
According to the Russian economist Mikhail Delyagin , the difference between 5-6 and 7% of Russians do not feel much . But it is said to reverse the trend and further accelerate growth. "This year , among other things , changes in inflation rates is due to the so-called semi-annual vacation , the looming presidential elections in Russia were shifted schedules of tariff increases on utilities. In addition, affected by drought. But if the rate of inflation will continue to accelerate, it will show all the unsustainability of the current economic model in Russia ", - said economist.
The expert also believes that we should not focus on only one rising inflation . "I would be more focused on reducing GDP by 0.2% over the month . Yes, now it is difficult to judge objectively , as the dynamics of change of GDP is counted not by the results of one month , and at least the quarter. But 0.2 % - that's a lot , it's quite alarming bell . This is the first sign of a renewed economic downturn, similar to what was in 2008 "- summed Delyagin .
21.10.2012 12:07:06
Visible, not destiny !
Do not wait for you , my mother , a beautiful son .
Do not wait , it will never return ,
" Wait, locomotive " Nikolai Ivanovo
CB : keep inflation in Russia this year will not be able
Inflation in Russia will not return to the target corridor of 5-6% set for this year, said deputy chairman of the Central Bank Sergei Shvetsov
Inflation in Russia will not return to the target corridor of 5-6% set for this year, said deputy chairman of the Central Bank Sergei Shvetsov , speaking at a meeting of the working group in the Duma.
"Inflation came out of the target corridor and , most likely, in this corridor will not " - he said.
According to him , reports BBC, October 15, the annual inflation rate was 6.8 %.
According to Rosstat, as at October 15 , accumulated since the beginning of the year, inflation was 5.5 %.
According to the forecast as the Ministry, inflation in Russia in 2012 will be 7 %.
Experts have previously said that the authorities keep inflation will fail. At year-end consumer price growth will almost certainly exceed the threshold of 7% and may reach 7.5 %.
Assessing the situation , chairman of the investment policy CCI Anton Danilov- Danil'yan believes that inflation momentum has been launched by the Government in connection with the transfer of indexation on 1 July . Contributed to the rise in prices made a poor harvest and the so-called low-base effect . At the same time inflation of 7-7.5 % is not the limit .
If political speech will be allowed , for example, about the increase of salaries to state employees, it will be all 8 %. " And understanding for 2013 yet," - admitted Danilov- Danil'yan . He believes that in the future , inflation will be determined by including external factors. In particular , will continue to reduce the rate of growth of China's economy , as the crisis develops in the EU, what would happen in the U.S.? Government forecast figures - growth rates in the range of 5 to 6% - the economist found " implausible " .
Hardest of high inflation traditionally suffer poor. Rich rising prices almost do not feel middle class - partially , but gets poor . Indeed, in such circumstances, Expensive food and consumer goods . Among the victims - the processing industry in Russia , as soon as the election cycle is completed , the containment of administrative prices and tariffs for services of natural monopolies is not expected. Will increase the price of electricity and gas. As a result, the manufacturing industry " will get a kick from monopoly sectors," Danilov- Danil'yan sure .
As a benchmark inflation rate in 2012 , Public Chamber member Iosif Diskin calls 7.2%. He has his own expense to the Central Bank, which sharply reduced the volume of money supply and raised the refinancing rate . "The Russian Federation today is the only country in the" Big Twenty "where refinancing rate above inflation ," - noted economist. This is reflected in the cost of credit for businesses. Last lay high interest rates for borrowed funds in costs - in the price of the final product . Authorities thereby disperse inflation.
08.02.2013 17:46:20
Inflation in Russia in January exceeded the forecast of Ministry of Economic Development and was 1%
Inflation in Russia in January was 1% versus 0.5 % in January last year , exceeding the forecast of 0.7-0.8 % in the Ministry of Economic Development , said on February 5 Statistics. Annual inflation in January ( January 2013 to January 2012 ) was 7.1 %. For comparison, the annual inflation rate in January 2012 stood at 4.2%.
29/12/2013 20:26:27
The monetary base in Russia is growing third consecutive week
News Newsland: The monetary base in Russia is growing third consecutive week
Monetary base in narrow definition RF increased by 93.4 billion rubles - to 8 trillion 124 billion rubles as of December 16 to 8 trillion 217.4 billion rubles on December 23, 2013 . This is stated in the press service of the Bank of Russia .
Recall that a week earlier , the monetary base grew by 142.9 billion rubles before - 96.5 billion rubles , even earlier - declined by 32.9 billion rubles. On January 1, 2013 , its volume reached $ 9 trillion 899.6 billion rubles.
The monetary base in narrow definition includes issued by the Bank of Russia cash (including balances in vaults of credit institutions ) and balances required reserves on credit institutions in the national currency deposited in the Bank of Russia.
Recall that the monetary base in Russia in a broad definition for November increased by 2.08 %.
Source : rosbalt.ru
01.01.2014 17:49:48
Inflation in 2013 , according to preliminary estimates from Rosstat , up 6.5 percent. On this December 31 reported on the site office . In December, prices rose 0.5 percent.
Data obtained from the analysis of prices for 64 kinds of basic goods and services in 271 cities of Russia. The final results of a rise in prices will be announced January 9, 2014 .
Ministry of Economic Development in its latest official forecasts made in early December , has raised expectations of inflation from 6 to 6.2 percent .
Then agency reported the worsening forecasts and other key economic indicators . Thus, the growth of GDP in 2013 was reduced from 1.8 percent to 1.4 percent. In the next two years as the economy is expected to stagnate . In 2014 GDP growth forecast was reduced from 3 to 2.5 percent in 2015 - from 3.1 to 2.8 percent.
Source: lenta.ru
Fought ... fought ... fought , not forgetting to properly receive a salary and all other benefits , but nothing has changed . But they do not lose hope and will continue to fight adtsat years ... until blown merited retirement and their grandchildren will tell their " selfless " struggle.
14.02.2014, 16:03 | « BBC »
Annual inflation in Russia could reach 5,8-6,1 % by the middle of this year , but it will happen after slowing to 5% by the end of the year from the current level of 6.1 % , RIA "Novosti" with reference to the statement of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina .
"We proceed from the fact that inflation in the first half of the year will be between 5,8-6,1 % by the end of the year to reach the level of 5% ," - said Elvira .
According to the Central Bank, on February 10 this year, the annual inflation rate was 6.1 %. In 2013, prices rose by 6.5%. Economic Development Ministry official forecast for inflation in 2014 is 4.5-5.5 % with 4.8% reference point , but due to the weakening of the ruble possible adjustment to 5.2-5.3 %.
Central Bank also believes that the ruble is undervalued given the state of the current operations of the course .
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The Bank of Russia is not involved in the rise in prices, since it is not the ruble falls , and the price of food is increasing .
Invincible and uncontrollable inflation
Inflation in Russia since the beginning of the year exceeded two percentPrices in Russia since the beginning of the year increased by 2.1 percent . This is stated in the official press release of Rosstat.According to Rosstat , a week from 9 to 15 February 2010, inflation in the country was 0.2 per cent , and since the beginning of this month - 0.4 percent. A year earlier, in general, in February prices rose 1.7 percent.In the second decade of February 2010 in Russia grew stronger all vegetables - by 1.3 percent . Buckwheat, cheese, dairy products rose in price by 1,1-2,6 percent. Pork , pasta , chicken and wheat flour , by contrast, fell by 0.1-0.3 percent.According to government forecasts , inflation in Russia in 2010 will be 6.5-7.5 percent. In 2009, the rise in prices in the country was 8.8 percent, significantly decreased in comparison with 2008 (13.3 per cent ) . The reason was the crisis seriously reduce demand for many commodities .February 16 , Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised that in the next few years, Russia will be able to enter the European inflation figures - 3-5 percent. In 2009, in the EU , prices rose by an average of 1.4 percent.
When you read the statements of members of the Government and Ministry of Finance officials on combating inflation, can not escape the feeling of running in place. They are all fighting , doing " incredible " effort , and inflation all upsets and overturns their forecasts.
Judge for yourself .
In early 2006, we read in the newspaper "Vedomosti":
"The government can not keep inflation within the planned range . During the first half of February , prices rose by 0 , 8 % , and by the end of the month , inflation could reach 1 , 2%, economists predict . According ambitious forecast of Economic Development, the rise in prices in 2006 should not be over 7 5-8 %. But the January statistics put this task into question ... In the first two weeks of February, inflation stood at 0 , 8 % , said yesterday Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov . In February last year, prices rose by 1, 2 %.
According to the published data of Economic Development, in February inflation may reach 1.3-1.5 % , and by the end of the first two months of the year - is 3.9%. It seems that 9 per cent annual growth plank prices established in the budget as much as we can be overcome much earlier period.
Seeing that the situation goes out of control, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has accused the government of carrying out a weak financial policy. In response, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov accuses the Minister of Finance in the global savings glut of money that " desperately needed in the energy sector ." " And there is no smell inflation ," - said the head of government .
" When the government approves the budget for the current year (2006) we were promised to keep a tight rein on inflation . And not let go for 8, 5 % for all of 2006 . Moreover, puffing out his cheeks , officials said that they are quite capable 2008 to drive it into the framework of 3 - 4%. Alas, it took only two months , and stubborn inflation wiped nose our financial authorities : defeated half of their annual plan "- writes the correspondent of the newspaper " Komsomolskaya Pravda " Valery Bhutan.
It took a half years , and we once again hear the government struggles with inflation, which also successfully overcomes these hapless wrestlers.
Inflation, which so vain , "fights" the Finance Ministry is not reduced. Second consecutive month, prices are rising faster than in 2006, the Finance Ministry and members of the government hastily looking for excuses higher prices and the depreciation of the ruble , not wanting to look in the mirror .
Ministry of Finance believes that the summer will help rectify the situation deflation, which depends on the harvest .
"The Central Bank could not tear inflation on oil prices ," writes "Gazeta" .
" ... Responsible for the project of monetary policy yesterday had the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev . To soften hawkish deputies first thing he told me how hard it is to work to the Central Bank ." Central Bank forecasts inflation of 5.2 % , and up to year - at around 8 %. Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank takes credit for the influx failed to sterilize.
One of the reasons for its rapid growth , according to the Central Bank deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev - a record inflow of capital. Money supply for the year , including in April , rose by 57.3 %. For such money growth May inflation figures are quite low , says Oksana Osipova of the Center for Development , much more influenced by inflation in May rise in prices for fruit and vegetables - 7.8% ( 2.6 % last year ) . "Nobody thought it would be such a drastic leap " - the economist said the bank "Trust" Yevgeny Nadorshin . Non-food goods and services became more expensive in May moderate , but rising prices for construction materials : cement - by 5.4% , on a brick - by 4.6%. Officials still expect that inflation in 2007 will keep within 8 % (in 2006 it was 9%). Ministry of Finance believes that the summer will help rectify the situation deflation .
"Kommersant "
"The pace of price growth accelerated " ( Alexey Shapovalov ) : " The government hopes that they will stop deflation . Yesterday, Rosstat reported on the acceleration of inflation in May 2007 , when the average price growth rate increased by 0.02 % against 0.015% in May 2006 . Central Bank predicts convergence of price growth from last year . Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin still hopes that inflationary government plan in 2007 will be executed if his expectations are met in the autumn of deflation . "
Our officials are constantly explaining the causes of inflation and rising prices , and if it does not rise in oil prices , the inflow of capital , unless the inflow of capital, the growth of wages , etc. , etc.
But who seek to achieve the desired result , he is looking for ways and who only means one finds an explanation.
And the acute power crisis , the more evident discrepancy between reality and reflection of this reality in the media. This discrepancy has become so obvious that even loyal to the government newspaper "Izvestia" spoke about this and published an article by Anna Kaledins " Food prices are rising faster than inflation ."
When announce the official inflation data , it is nothing but bewilderment they did not cause . - Outraged Kaledina - All we go shopping and see how prices are rising . Wallet emptied all swiftly , and the " paper " inflation each year falls . Very revealing in this sense has become the past week. We were informed that in June , prices rose by 1%. For summer rate is high, but not fatal . But at the same time the cost of the minimum set of products for June increased by 4.8% since the beginning of the year - by 13.1% . That explanation our bewilderment . "
"For example, in June the cost of the minimum food basket grew by almost 5 times more than inflation . Just to keep from starving Russians in June had to spend on food at least 1666.3 rubles (in Moscow - 2020.3 rubles) . "
Indignant falsity of official statistics , and telling readers how to find it difficult to live , even though they know so much about this , Kaledina told that " index " Big Mac " the dollar should cost 15 rubles."
So what? Should and should not . Here it would be worth Kaledins and try to understand the cause of this phenomenon. Who is interested in such a discrepancy value of the ruble , and who spins inflation , giving false figures ? But she chose to act in the spirit of his newspaper - what I see , I sing , afraid to call a spade a spade .
So what, then indignant , since truth and remains in tuna ? And just because silent about it , it is no longer tolerable.
From 1 to 22 October , inflation in Russia amounted to 1.3 %, from the beginning of the year prices rose by 8.9% , now their growth for the year may exceed 10% , according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin .
To fight inflation, Kudrin recalled , used export and import duties . By region , a wave of price fixing , the leading retail chains and manufacturers froze prices on six key items until 31 January . FAS filed in 17 regions of 40 cases . Measures have helped , says Kudrin : the second half of October rise in food prices slowed by half.
But core inflation continues to accelerate . In September, she was a record 1.6% in October, according to Kudrin estimated to grow by 1.5-2% .
Gazette
05.05.2010 11:35:15
Will not be cheaper
Central Bank promises surge of inflation
Eugene Arsyukhin
Prices will go up in the summer , said Thursday the Russian Central Bank. And while inflation is still low, the Central Bank want to take the last chance to help Russian companies . On April 30, the refinancing rate again reduced , so that the plants will be cheaper loans . When inflation will accelerate , will have to forget about these bounties .
If the crisis was any good , just in low inflation. What happened, what the government and the Central Bank have dreamed for many years. In 2008, prices rose by 13.3 %, in 2009 - just 8.8% . Some grumble - it could be less , as in Europe or the United States . But everything is relative . In the " fat zero " of such parameters could only dream . Then monopolists at times inflated prices that gasoline , then bread , then square meters living - and nothing but verbal condemnation, for them it was not. People will still buy , they reasoned . And people were buying , because their incomes have grown . Fueled inflation and housing prices , and " speculative" capital that exploded in the country , and ultimately - irresistibly rising prices for oil and other raw materials .
But regular crisis happened : incomes have declined, merchants began to beware of cranking the numbers on the price tags for no reason . Now the recession is over , loomed on the horizon and a new " era of fat ," but to get to it , we have to pay you.
On Thursday, the board of directors of the Central Bank lowered the refinancing rate , but promised that the second half of the inflation in Russia will begin to grow . Why "but" what 's the connection ? The fact that the low rate of refinancing helps take cheap loans .
Banks borrow from the Central Bank refinancing rate and resell these businesses money with some wrap . The lower the base rate , and the lower end . But the thing is that the rate reduction is possible only in conditions of low inflation . While she was abnormally low, so the Central Bank decided to use the latter, probably could help the domestic industry.
Rate has been reduced from today to 8%. And this is the thirteenth decline over the last year . The report of the Central Bank said that in April remained favorable dynamics of the consumer price index , " which creates the conditions for a reduction in interest rates of the Bank of Russia." It is really so . From 1 to 26 April , according to Rosstat , inflation was only 0.3%. This is nothing . In March, for the entire month accumulated 0.6% in April , therefore, would be even less.
If we calculate the annual inflation rate , then the January rate she would have received 8.1% , and now - around 6.5% or even less. Against this background, it is safe to do borrowed money cheaper and realized that the Central Bank.
But in the second half could start rising inflation, the central bank warns . In the future, the Central Bank will have to closely monitor the macroeconomic situation , and most importantly , to analyze how credit money affected the economy . The central bank did not go into the reasons for the possible growth of inflation in the future , although they are obvious. The crisis ended . In the pockets of money appeared . Demand revives .
More precisely, begin to revive . Rising incomes are already evident . Hotheads say they have almost caught up with the pre-crisis level (although many would disagree ) . Another thing that people spend money not yet ready - prefer to dig . According to the first quarter , the cost of buying grow twice slower than revenues . But it is up to the pores. The State encourages consumption. For example, put forward the scrapping program . Summer holidays will complete the picture. People relax , withdraw their money from deposits and will carry them into megamalls .
Here at this time shopping online and will increase the " cheat " . All this is covered more than once . Once people have money , traders begin to shoot superprofits . Most immoral in this situation - that the state struggled increases incomes , pension increases and the like, but because of the greed merchants lion's share of this increase is in the pockets of businessmen .
The rise in prices is beginning to assert itself . During the first quarter rose 12% utility services, which are much higher than the rate of inflation. Column headed , of course , gasoline - this versatile harbinger of change. Although in the first quarter and he fell from the first days of April began to go up. Here you have the first confirmation of dire predictions of the Central Bank .
Alexander Orlov , managing director of investment company " Arbat Capital " :
- I think inflation will rise . Partly because of the next refinance rate . But the main reason - to finally reach Russia increased earnings from rising prices for oil and gas . This will increase liquidity in the country. Which, of course , is not the best sign, but not the worst . The only thing that can prevent the growth of inflation - the collapse of the Greek economy . If Greece will default , it will be comparable with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Banks no longer lend money to each other , the money supply collapses . Plus, this will lower oil prices . All this will lead to a reduction in the economy and the strong devaluation.
Igor Nikolayev , director of the FBK Strategic Analysis Department :
- I think the central bank is right: inflation will accelerate . In fact, if there will be a change in the exchange rate (dollar would start to weaken and the dollar strengthened ), the Central Bank would be powerless. Increased rates of refinancing will not save , they will have to be reduced, and this situation is very likely. All markets are overheated speculative . When there are bubbles , they will sooner or later burst. My prediction is that by the end of the year the situation will be like at the end of 2008.
10:24 30.04.10
19.12.2010 What products in 2011 will become a delicacy
Rising food prices in Russia ahead of the official inflation rate . Research and Information Department of the Central Bank presented a report , according to which in 2008 the official inflation rate in Russia was 13.3 %. At the same time food , fruits and vegetables , taking into account , for the year rose by 16.5%. In 2009, good year , with an overall rate of inflation of 8.8% , food prices in Russia rose 6.1 %.
In 2010, the situation is reversed . Prices for fruits and vegetables on the background of a summer drought and destruction of the crop , to the end of November, immediately jumped by 34%. While inflation was 7.6 %, while food prices rose by a total of 10.6%.
Director of the Department of Financial Markets Operations Bank of Russia Sergei Shvetsov said that due to high world food prices spike central bank fears inflation. The banker noted that food prices will remain high throughout 2011 .
In November this year the indicator FAO Food Price Index Data, which shows the development of average prices of 55 food items of different groups approached the peak levels of 2008.
In 2002-2004, the index was at levels of 90 - 110 points (level set at 100 ) . In the midst of the global financial crisis in 2008 exceeded 210. In the second half of 2010 after a decline that is associated with the release of the crisis economies , food prices rose sharply again . At this sugar rose by 18 % , oils and fats 50 % , 30% corn , 16% meat . Total index FAO Food Price Index Data rose 21 % to 205.4 .
The death of the crop in 2010 broke up food prices . According to forecasts of the Economic Development Ministry , in December , consumer prices in Russia could grow by 0.8%. Thus the real surge in prices may be higher , experts say.
"I do not see the prerequisites to ensure that prices remain in place or falling . All shows that they grew up , grow and will grow . We , unfortunately, when it improved the situation , prices are not falling . Reduce prices if there is a sudden decline in demand , there are strong competitors . And so - nothing good I can not predict , "- said the expert of Retail Training Group Elena Komkova .
The main problem , according to her - is the growth in input prices . " Retail is the only link in the chain . " Large companies , including X5, " Auchan" and others - tried by reducing the margins to keep prices down . Especially at the moment because of the mad rush cereals . But if there are input prices rise , it is clear that retail will regain it . And so it becomes more difficult to make shopping - because of restrictions on the sale of alcohol , if you introduce a ban on the entry of transport will also have to make some changes , "- says Elena Komkova .
Interviewed experts shared the view that food prices in Russia and in the world have the potential for growth. Presumably growth will meet the world , and when negative conjuncture even outstrip them .
" We conducted a study on food staples and found regularity - a composite food index is in opposition with the index of industrial production of goods . And if two years have passed under the slogan of restoring it to the prices of manufactured goods , in the long term we are waiting for rise in food prices ," - says the head of the analytical department of FC " infinitesimal " Alexander Ivanischev . The expert also emphasizes that world prices are measured in dollars and paper money obetsenivayutsya .
U.S. authorities have already announced that the price of skimmed milk powder may grow by 39%. Analysts JPMorgan Chase & Co. predict a surge in sugar prices by 25% and rice 60%.
IA " Alliance Media" based on "Business Petersburg"
Date: 16/05/2011 15:28:51
Stepashin: rise in prices this year will break for forward frame by 7.5 %
Authorities promised slowdown in inflation this year may not take place - head of the Audit Chamber Sergei Stepashin warned about exceeding the planned target of 7.5 %. He noted that on May 3 inflation since the beginning of the year was 4.3 % , and by the end of the month , it "may be higher than in April."
Exceeding the planned price growth , according to him , can contribute non-competitive pricing on many types of goods and services to the largest Russian companies , as well as monetary factors .
Chapter SP noted that the money supply in Russia in April of this year increased by more than 26 % compared to April last year . Retained a high level of consolidated debt : in the first quarter , it exceeded 504 billion dollars, almost equal to the volume of international reserves.
Excluding the National Welfare Fund and the Reserve Fund international reserves , according to Stepashin , 118 billion ( almost a quarter ) below consolidated foreign debt of the Russian Federation , cites " Nezavisimaya Gazeta " .
Meanwhile, in the Budget Act 2011 laid the inflation rate of 6%. Deputy Finance Minister Anton Siluanov in the State Duma on May 13 said that this figure will be revised upwards - to 6.5-7 %. However, Stepashin casts doubt this forecast , assuming that the acceleration of inflation in the first months of 2011 will not let her keep . Since the beginning of the rise in prices in Russia amounted to 4.3%.
Pessimistic and EC experts - they predict inflation in Russia this year at 9.4 % and 8.2 % - in 2012 . Recall that in 2010 inflation in the country reached 8.8% in 2009 - 8.8% , 2008 - 13.3%.
Inflation will come forward for the framework , confident and Director of Strategic Analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev : " After the jump in gasoline prices after the information about the next global rising food prices that was evident - he explains . - Rising prices in Russia will be much higher assumptions who built power. during the year, the figure will be higher than 10 %. But this level may not be definitive, given the pre-election period and the temptation to distribute the money . "
24.08.2012 18:38:26
It turns out that the inflation rate of 7% for Russian citizens is a trifle!
Rising inflation Russians probably not yet affected , but it can be a turning point for the Russian economy
Weather expert 23.08.12 15:20
Yekaterinburg, August 23 (New Region Alexei Belyanin ) - Ministry of Economic Development has issued a negative outlook for inflation in Russia for the year . Rise in inflation to 7% nonessential Russians likely to afford it will not feel . However , according to experts , a further acceleration in the rate of inflation may be a turning point and show the unsustainability of the current economic model in Russia . In addition, the wake-up call for the Russian economy is slowing of GDP growth .
Russian Ministry of Economic Development today released the adjusted forecast for inflation in 2012 . The figures were worse than expected in April - 7 % for the year against the 5-6% predicted previously . The main causes of inflation , according to the Ministry , two : the food factor and the weakening of the ruble, observed in recent months. In this case , the food factor is the substantial increase in world prices for grain and other crops due to drought in the United States and Russia .
Further experts' forecasts as unfavorable . According to federal publications total inflation at 7 % - this is the minimum that is waiting for the Russian economy. Moreover, in the first quarter of 2013 , annual inflation could reach about 8% compared to 3.6 % in May this year .
According to the Russian economist Mikhail Delyagin , the difference between 5-6 and 7% of Russians do not feel much . But it is said to reverse the trend and further accelerate growth. "This year , among other things , changes in inflation rates is due to the so-called semi-annual vacation , the looming presidential elections in Russia were shifted schedules of tariff increases on utilities. In addition, affected by drought. But if the rate of inflation will continue to accelerate, it will show all the unsustainability of the current economic model in Russia ", - said economist.
The expert also believes that we should not focus on only one rising inflation . "I would be more focused on reducing GDP by 0.2% over the month . Yes, now it is difficult to judge objectively , as the dynamics of change of GDP is counted not by the results of one month , and at least the quarter. But 0.2 % - that's a lot , it's quite alarming bell . This is the first sign of a renewed economic downturn, similar to what was in 2008 "- summed Delyagin .
21.10.2012 12:07:06
Visible, not destiny !
Do not wait for you , my mother , a beautiful son .
Do not wait , it will never return ,
" Wait, locomotive " Nikolai Ivanovo
CB : keep inflation in Russia this year will not be able
Inflation in Russia will not return to the target corridor of 5-6% set for this year, said deputy chairman of the Central Bank Sergei Shvetsov
Inflation in Russia will not return to the target corridor of 5-6% set for this year, said deputy chairman of the Central Bank Sergei Shvetsov , speaking at a meeting of the working group in the Duma.
"Inflation came out of the target corridor and , most likely, in this corridor will not " - he said.
According to him , reports BBC, October 15, the annual inflation rate was 6.8 %.
According to Rosstat, as at October 15 , accumulated since the beginning of the year, inflation was 5.5 %.
According to the forecast as the Ministry, inflation in Russia in 2012 will be 7 %.
Experts have previously said that the authorities keep inflation will fail. At year-end consumer price growth will almost certainly exceed the threshold of 7% and may reach 7.5 %.
Assessing the situation , chairman of the investment policy CCI Anton Danilov- Danil'yan believes that inflation momentum has been launched by the Government in connection with the transfer of indexation on 1 July . Contributed to the rise in prices made a poor harvest and the so-called low-base effect . At the same time inflation of 7-7.5 % is not the limit .
If political speech will be allowed , for example, about the increase of salaries to state employees, it will be all 8 %. " And understanding for 2013 yet," - admitted Danilov- Danil'yan . He believes that in the future , inflation will be determined by including external factors. In particular , will continue to reduce the rate of growth of China's economy , as the crisis develops in the EU, what would happen in the U.S.? Government forecast figures - growth rates in the range of 5 to 6% - the economist found " implausible " .
Hardest of high inflation traditionally suffer poor. Rich rising prices almost do not feel middle class - partially , but gets poor . Indeed, in such circumstances, Expensive food and consumer goods . Among the victims - the processing industry in Russia , as soon as the election cycle is completed , the containment of administrative prices and tariffs for services of natural monopolies is not expected. Will increase the price of electricity and gas. As a result, the manufacturing industry " will get a kick from monopoly sectors," Danilov- Danil'yan sure .
As a benchmark inflation rate in 2012 , Public Chamber member Iosif Diskin calls 7.2%. He has his own expense to the Central Bank, which sharply reduced the volume of money supply and raised the refinancing rate . "The Russian Federation today is the only country in the" Big Twenty "where refinancing rate above inflation ," - noted economist. This is reflected in the cost of credit for businesses. Last lay high interest rates for borrowed funds in costs - in the price of the final product . Authorities thereby disperse inflation.
08.02.2013 17:46:20
Inflation in Russia in January exceeded the forecast of Ministry of Economic Development and was 1%
Inflation in Russia in January was 1% versus 0.5 % in January last year , exceeding the forecast of 0.7-0.8 % in the Ministry of Economic Development , said on February 5 Statistics. Annual inflation in January ( January 2013 to January 2012 ) was 7.1 %. For comparison, the annual inflation rate in January 2012 stood at 4.2%.
29/12/2013 20:26:27
The monetary base in Russia is growing third consecutive week
News Newsland: The monetary base in Russia is growing third consecutive week
Monetary base in narrow definition RF increased by 93.4 billion rubles - to 8 trillion 124 billion rubles as of December 16 to 8 trillion 217.4 billion rubles on December 23, 2013 . This is stated in the press service of the Bank of Russia .
Recall that a week earlier , the monetary base grew by 142.9 billion rubles before - 96.5 billion rubles , even earlier - declined by 32.9 billion rubles. On January 1, 2013 , its volume reached $ 9 trillion 899.6 billion rubles.
The monetary base in narrow definition includes issued by the Bank of Russia cash (including balances in vaults of credit institutions ) and balances required reserves on credit institutions in the national currency deposited in the Bank of Russia.
Recall that the monetary base in Russia in a broad definition for November increased by 2.08 %.
Source : rosbalt.ru
01.01.2014 17:49:48
Inflation in 2013 , according to preliminary estimates from Rosstat , up 6.5 percent. On this December 31 reported on the site office . In December, prices rose 0.5 percent.
Data obtained from the analysis of prices for 64 kinds of basic goods and services in 271 cities of Russia. The final results of a rise in prices will be announced January 9, 2014 .
Ministry of Economic Development in its latest official forecasts made in early December , has raised expectations of inflation from 6 to 6.2 percent .
Then agency reported the worsening forecasts and other key economic indicators . Thus, the growth of GDP in 2013 was reduced from 1.8 percent to 1.4 percent. In the next two years as the economy is expected to stagnate . In 2014 GDP growth forecast was reduced from 3 to 2.5 percent in 2015 - from 3.1 to 2.8 percent.
Source: lenta.ru
Fought ... fought ... fought , not forgetting to properly receive a salary and all other benefits , but nothing has changed . But they do not lose hope and will continue to fight adtsat years ... until blown merited retirement and their grandchildren will tell their " selfless " struggle.
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