March 19, 2014Capital flight must be sought in state-owned and state-owned banks
RIA Novosti, Yekaterina Shtukina
Outflow of capital abroad in the I quarter of 2014 to reach $ 73-75 billion, which is more than in all of last year , these huge flows are not able to form simple speculators and traders . Outflow - the handiwork of the largest state-owned corporations , economists believe
Moscow . March 19. FINMARKET.RU - State may terminate the outflow of capital , agreeing with the state corporations , sure Alex Vedev of Gaidar Institute . Without their participation , including the participation of the largest state-owned banks , to provide a sufficient quantity of flow is impossible. If you do not take these flows under control , the ruble may drop to 50 and to 70 rubles per dollar. No financial reserves of the country is not enough to keep him , warned Tuesday participants FBK Economic Club .
Alexei Vedev , director of the Institute of Structural Research Gaidar " We believe almost every day outflows : our estimate as of March 17 , for I quarter of 2014 it will be $ 73-75 billion, which is considered to be very simple: we have a balance of trade , the first assessment on imports , which fell slightly , to export . current account balance for the I quarter of $ 33 billion, plus the volume of intervention in the foreign exchange market, the Central Bank - is the amount of outflow . And it provided that today nothing serious happens. Throughout last year's outflow of $ 62 billion , of course, now there is an external shock. during the year, we can see any numbers outflow. $ 150 billion - is not a disaster . But with stable oil prices, we will have to reduce imports. However, there is a chance that outflow has already taken place , and all those who wanted to withdraw funds , have already done so . Then there is a chance for long trend of strengthening of the ruble , as the oil price at around $ 100 per barrel source of steady inflow of foreign currency in Russia there . Situation will determine the continued outflow of capital or not, whether the monetary authorities do something with it . If the outflow continues, we may see , and 50 and 70 rubles. per dollar. Can begin a never ending story , when the economy is hawking . Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance should take maximum participation , to prevent this , up to administrative law - conversations with major investors on personal contacts . Role of the state in the economy increases multiply , major corporations have - state-owned , and thus increasing the outflow . Inflow in recent history was only two years - in 2006-2007. We need to understand who defines capital outflows . Not "KAMAZ" same cash taken abroad . We have five major state-owned banks , the outflow occurs through their transaction. At least strange that the Central Bank and five banks control almost the entire market can not cope with panic on the currency market . In manual mode, you can at least put out the fire , and then make laws . If disturbed the global balance of supply and demand for the national currency , no international reserves will not be enough . All of our international reserves significantly less than the total external debt. Formally, it is considered private, and in fact - quasi : the overwhelming part of it belongs to the companies with state participation . Therefore, we can assume that we have reserves . All enterprises in Russia have deposits of 12 trillion rubles . , And credits - 21 trillion rubles . This means that in Russia there is no strategic investors . We have the whole market , the whole privatization rests on foreign money. Any movement of foreign investors from our market upsets the balance of supply and demand , leading to the collapse of the stock market. Can not say that from a weak ruble all sectors uniquely benefit . For Russian manufacturing industry it is uniquely bad. Since 2008, intensively developed assembly plants . Now $ 200-220 billion a year - the amount of intermediate consumption , semis, we buy for industrial assembly . Localization rate of automotive components , consumer electronics, is 3-5 %. Most likely , this year we will grow best at statpogreshnosti - 0.0-0.2 %. Do not want to say that we are moving into the red zone of negative growth . More specifically , one can say a couple of months . Oligarchs syreviki and budget repulsed their profits from falling ruble by population and manufacturing. Foreign investors with nothing lost $ 75 billion flowed out of the country . Even in terms of conspiracy theories that can be explained only if specifically agreed oligarchic elite worldwide to withdraw from the country. All emerging markets are faced with the fact that the announcement of the phasing out of quantitative easing policy has led to a redistribution of capital - outflow from emerging to developed markets . Now it is difficult to say which of the central banks was right : those who admit a significant weakening of currencies, or those who have weakened course not much, but sharply increased the rate. The fact is that in the worst position turned Argentine Peso and the Russian ruble . About Argentina as saying about the country - a chronic loser for the past 50 years. For Russia - a tactical defeat : the outflow of capital was accompanied by a speculative attack on the ruble and panic among the population, buying the currency . Add to this the Ukraine . "
Igor Nikolayev , director of the Institute of Strategic Analysis FBK " Capital outflow in January was $ 17 billion We share the assessment that it is for the first quarter will be about $ 50 billion , a net outflow for the year will be $ 150-200 billion outflow With this count on the stability of the ruble is not necessary. ruble will weaken. Our autumn forecast was 37 rubles. per dollar , but no one expected that we happen is with Ukraine. Therefore, by the end of the year we can see 40 rubles per dollar and 55 rubles per euro. 's international reserves means , as far as we have the strength to ensure stability . Now they make up just under $ 500 billion According to our estimates , in 2008, a few months reserves fell by a third - to $ 200 billion is necessary to consider that part of the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund to quickly extract of instruments in which they are stored , and can not spend . Plus need some emergency reserve , which can not be spent under any circumstances . it is possible that consideration of filling the budget played a role in the weakening of the ruble. No wonder the president said that the freer course , the better. But this does not mean that specifically lowered the ruble, and just not much interfere with his weakening , which is caused by objective reasons weakness of the Russian economy . Investment declines by state-owned sector is not in vain : they froze rates. Means for increasing investment need borrowed funds . A zakreditovannost these companies is very high. Not the fact that there will occupy the market . Especially because the funding comes mainly from the international financial institutions, and here we must be realistic. So the main investor can become only the budget and NWF . Especially because there is another competitor in the government investment - Crimea . But then it may be necessary to abandon those projects that have been announced : Transsiberian , CRR . "
Dmitry Miroshnichenko Development Center HSE " Naturally, such a large amount of the outflow can provide only the largest corporations . All of them - with state participation . But the judge of that , we can only circumstantial evidence . Could give the result of a direct agreement CBA, the Ministry of Finance and Management of state corporations as an economist I say difficult. this is a political decision. Theoretically , it could do something to help . as a single action , it could affect the performance of capital flight , about to reverse the trend , I 'm not sure. difficult to say whether the representatives of state corporations will agree with such a hypothetical proposal states : yes , tell us a little heated . Rather than roll out the numbers and will not prove that it is a normal business activities that we conduct international business, and you want to completely stop our business. Maximum what you can actually agree that they will reduce their balances in foreign currency accounts so much percent . Such an agreement would imply terms , theoretically , it will work this time . But political factors such initiatives , I estimate I can not . "
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