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воскресенье, 6 сентября 2015 г.

Investment is not, and there is an outflow

 Money "Happy Feet"Capital outflow from Russia for a week accelerated by almost four times.The total net cash outflows from funds investing in shares of Russian, a week from 20 to 26 August amounted to 433.4 million dollars, said Western analysts. And reminded: for the week 13 to 19 August withdrawal was at 110.7 million dollars.Ministry of Economic Development is constantly changing its forecast for capital outflow. As stated today, the head of department Alexei Ulyukayev, in the year of our country can "escape" to 93 billion dollars.In August, investors, speculators stepped up withdrawal of Russian assets. What kind of money? What is their significance for the Russian economy, and why did they leave? There is another issue. Russians refer to the news of the flight of capital from the country? Should we worry about them?

Definitely worth it. And there are two reasons. Firstly, leaving a significant portion of Russian capital was invested in the real economy. This profit, and even working capital, stopped seeing prospects as rosy, that the ministers of our "economic unit". Businessmen fleeing the ruble zone treatment abroad. They are derived by offshore companies, and return only for the benefit.A benefit from the placement of capital in Russia is getting smaller. Because in August and ran even speculators, which the government previously failed to attract ruble bonds.They helped in the beginning of the year to strengthen the Russian currency, when they began to dump dollars and euros and then buy on the Russian ruble debt securities of private companies and the state. The yield on them was high. Oil prices rose, albeit hesitantly, but with the prospect of soon reaching 70 dollars per barrel. Level of "black gold" is not reached, and did not go up, too. But officials have been able to boast of a return to stability and at the same time announce the ruble has become the most reliable currency in the world.We all breathed a little bit because of lower prices for imported goods. In the beginning, they were at a maximum in the summer fell. However, the crisis in the country has not stopped. No matter how many deputy prime minister Igor Shuvalov nor encouraged the population to buy housing money from this same population there. Meanwhile, this capital-intensive industry and especially dynamic fades. Sales are going very badly, and the ruble prices "squares" falling more slowly than the demand falls. The chain, stretching from the thousands of construction sites, falling volumes of orders for materials, equipment and technology.Falling sales and orders - lost business sense to invest in these sectors new money, there is a desire to divert already invested. Optionally, they immediately put anywhere, but it is better to withdraw from the country in a "safe place" and wait for better times. And billions are flowing rivers of capital from Russia abroad.But that's not all. Alexei Kudrin sung a floating exchange rate has led to the development of highly profitable "industry." Speculators had an excellent opportunity to play against the ruble and ruble, swaying in the currency "swing" and getting fantastic profits. They can thus leave the country and return to use the wave of fall and the ruble. Huge temptation for capital employed in the real economy, "scroll money", and since primary focus of this capital - production, transport, trade - all less profitable, if not losing money, the interest in it disappears.It has long been more profitable to speculate currency or debt securities, the gradual withdrawal of "fat" outside "the country", than anything to create. And creation loses appeal more and more as domestic demand is shrinking, which is formally referred to as the word "crisis".However, not all can be profitable to speculate. Mass of investors buying up previously apartment entrances, was among the losers. Real Estate devalued and will depreciate, because only a very naive player can count on the fact that a lot of money, if you buy the game for the resale flats or houses.But business perfectly grasped the situation in the real economy and the trend in it recognizes. He did not deceive the official forecasts of the imminent start of the economic boom.Because the output of capital in 2015 is very large, and the situation in the economy as a result reminiscent of dehydration. And "liquid" goes into speculation and outside the country, which is a symptom of a serious illness in the economy, as well as factor in its aggravation. And the only way to stop the outflow of - not a ban on the withdrawal of funds from the country.In the XVI-XVII centuries rich Spain forbade businesses to withdraw money abroad. As a result, a whole industry is smuggle money to the border with France. Local villagers for 10 percent of the transported bags of gold and silver on the territory of a neighboring state, where there was no Spanish customs. It was, of course, not the only way to get money. But in our age to get around such a ban would be even easier, of course, if it appears. Now there is no prohibition, and the outflow of capital is calm.The only thing that can stop the outflow of capital - economic growth. He is not, and is not expected soon, because it does not significantly plans to revitalize the national economy. Because not only the holders of shares and bonds, aimed at specific income, but also all other businesses large and medium-flight feel the need for the withdrawal of capital from the economy. Some seek to immediately remove them from the country, and it is even more alarming.So A. Ulyukayev forecast may prove too optimistic, money, "run away" from Russia with sprint speed.Vasily KoltashovSource: stoletie.ru

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