Liberals are economic hit Russia
Liberals deliberately overstate the growth forecast of the economy, artificially lower the expected size of the non-oil revenues of the federal budget . In fact , when real growth rates were lower than expected , while oil prices exceed the government estimates , the Finance Ministry removes all oil windfall of the economy, pointing it at the completion of both in the U.S. " wealth funds ." Simultaneously trimming already planned spending and getting into debt to cover cash shortages arise .The budget for 2014. frank is fiction - it crumbles at the stage of underlying macroeconomic assumptions and forecasts which it is based . Presented at the court of the State Duma and the public budget is the result of a sick imagination of government officials - a feeling that all inherent in it macroeconomic benchmarks taken from the ceiling . Have no relation to reality or forecasts the growth rate of the economy , nor the extent of inflation or exchange rate or , most importantly , the average oil price
All these indicators are initially completely unattainable. For at least for this reason, we can safely say that the budget for 2014. ( not to mention the planning period 2015-2016 . ) is an abstract fiction and will be torn down in the early months of 2014 . He poured out soon - it's ugly house built on a rotten foundation of sand.Incurable optimism about the economy pipeFirst, completely detached from reality seen all the basic premises of the dynamics of GDP - about any increase in domestic disintegrated , and de-industrialized offshorizovannoy " tube economy " by 3% next year is not out of the question . This is sheer stupidity : only the last calendar year GDP growth collapsed three times - from 3.9% in January-September 2012. to 1.3 % in the same period of 2013. Worse, in the second and third quarter of this year 's annual economic growth rate was less than 1.2 % - this is the worst performance since the crisis of 2009 . In 2014. in the best case we can talk about barely noticeable growth within the statistical error - 1-1.5%. More likely to stagnate at zero even with the manipulation of the price index and the GDP deflator understatement . Moreover , we should not rule out a scenario of falling GDP 1-1.5 %. Russian economy went into a depression even at record high average energy prices - about 107.7 dollars per barrel of Urals in January- September this year.Raw materials parasitic model of " growth without development " implies predatory decumulation petrodollars , foreign loans , as well as infrastructural, industrial and scientific and technical potential of the Soviet era, turned default - the Russian economy does not help even more steadily rising prices for hydrocarbons. And in 2014 . even when the average oil price of $ 110 per barrel ( and budgeted forecast altogether at $ 97) , the Russian economy will slip into a state of crisis recession .Recall that in Russia decline in GDP growth observed over seven consecutive quarters , which is an excellent criterion , demonstrating recession in three sectors of the domestic economy, low added value , where, along with the outperformance export-oriented sectors (oil, gas , metals , fertilizers, forestry , etc. etc.) and almost non-oil which reduces high technology manufacturing industry ( machine tools, instrumentation , mashinosroenie , agriculture , etc.) that is driven by less capacious and more competitive domestic market, there is also a specific sector plundering public funds.GDP growth damped with the end of 2011 : in the 4th quarter of 2011. the economy grew by 5.1% in Q1 . 2012. - 4.8% in the 2nd quarter . 2012 - 4.3% in the 3rd quarter . 2012. - 3% in Q4 . 2012. - 2.1% in the 1st quarter . 2013. - 1.6% in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the current year growth of the Russian economy shrunk to barely distinguishable from the statistical error of 1.2%. Moreover, taking into account the cleaning of the calendar and seasonal factors of Russia's GDP in the third quarter of 2013. not only increased , but even decreased by 0.2 % compared with the second quarter of the same year .In such a situation becomes , in principle, it is not clear , why the Russian economy must sprang from the ashes and begin to grow 2.5 more rapidly than it is today ? This frank fiction students Gaidar and Chubais , who headed today commanding heights of the financial and economic bloc of the Government of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev ( faithful friend and colleague Gaidar still at work in the journal "Communist" and the Government in 1990 to 1993 . ) In MED, Elvira Elvira ( graduate student " reformer" Yevgeny Yasin and student lobbyist retracting Russia German Gref WTO ) at the Central Bank , Anton Siluanov ( student Alexei Kudrin , who has worked with him all the "fat zero" and to plant Russia " kudrinomiku ") - the Ministry of Finance , etc. etc. Budgeted for 2014. growth domestic economy did not grow as much from the third quarter of 2012 ? And no reason to return to these heights ( in any case, by today's standards exactly) simply do not have .By the way, in the forecast for 2013. also laid inadequate parameters dew economy - about 3.5%. As warned by independent experts and free from dogma "Washington consensus" scientists , the actual growth rate was 2.5-3 times lower than estimates taken from the ceiling of the Government. As a result, literally at the seams began to crack and already scarce regional budgets - tax collection fell by 15-20% in most subjects of the Federation . And the Federal Tax Service rips plan to collect taxes - in January- September, she was able to manage and transfer to the budget only 70.8% of taxes and fees from the planned level for the year . Whereas the Federal Customs Service , serving receipts from foreign trade , reported on the implementation of the annual plan by 75%. As you can see , the greatest impact from this kind of forecasting and statistical tricks Finance applied by region - most of them tax revenues and income depend on the general level of economic , industrial, investment and consumer activity ( which is now slipping into a coma - depression ) , and not dynamics of oil prices.In other words, artificially inflated forecast economic growth rate is aimed at to artificially inflate the size of the expected non-oil revenues of the federal budget that are not associated with the pricing environment in the global energy market. In fact , when it turns out that real economic growth rates were lower than budgeted projections and oil prices , on the contrary , will exceed the government estimates , the Ministry of Finance will be able to remove all the oil windfall of the economy and send it to replenish the "oil and gas Potbelly " reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund . And yet with a sense of accomplishment Ministry of Finance will publicly declare that as GDP growth rates were below projections, and income was lower and therefore money on budget performance is no need to cut back on already planned expenditures , tighten the transfer of funds and incur into debt to cover cash shortages arise .Statistical distortions inflationSecondly, have nothing to do with reality , and government officials on forecasts of inflation - the government planned growth of consumer prices by 5 % in 2014 . and by 4.5 % in 2015 - 2016 . is banal attempt to wishful thinking and reduce budget costs by understating the extent of indexation of social benefits . Is a pure attempt to simplify and facilitate the implementation of the policy on privatization of public sector , commercialization of social services , the monetization of benefits , etc. The government attacks on the rake of the 1990s - officials do not tire of reminding that the main purpose of their activities in the field of fiscal policy is to minimize the social costs of the state, which according to the " market fundamentalists " are unnecessary burden on the state and " misuse of funds " designed to send the U.S..Giving priority sequestration budget , the Government is trying to dump responsibility to its citizens to improve wages for public sector employees , funding of science , education, health , culture, sport , housing and other areas of social policy . And because scale indexing government payments linked to price growth in the economy, artificially low inflation can significantly save on indexing all of these costs . This once again confirms the triumph of the principles of social Darwinism and the fetishism of the budget in the best tradition of "shock therapy" of the 1990s . Russian citizens under the Constitution are the source of power, the occupation administration perceived as headache and parasites . They do not see the funding of science , education and medicine source of scientific and technological potential and human capital , without which neither structural and technological modernization , no innovation , no industry diversification of industry or target structural neoindustrial maneuver .Recall that in 2011. consumer price inflation amounted to about 6.1% in 2012. - 6.6%, and for the first nine months of 2013. CPI rose by 6.9%. And despite the fact that the budget for 2013. the Government somehow laid forecast price increases by 5.5%. In fact today is the rise in prices by 6.9%. However, the Government of such "trifles" , apparently , does not bother anyone - there continue to purposefully cut back government funding not only in real terms (ie adjusted for inflation) , but also in nominal terms , which was not in Russia since binge " gaydarovschiny ", " eltsinschiny " and the default 1998.Moreover, in the expert community is well known that the official data of Rosstat inflation are the result of statistical manipulation and additions that have no relationship to life the vast majority of the Russian population. The real "social inflation" for 70% of Russians with incomes below the national average wage (less than 29 thousand rubles ) is 12-15 % per year. That pace Expensive goods and essential services : food , utilities, gas, water, electricity, heating , passenger transport, etc. Thus, in January -September this year, meat and meat products rose by 7.3% , sugar - by 9.9 % , fruits and vegetables - by 12.3 % , tobacco products - by 26.6 % , gasoline - 8 1%, medicines - by 7.5 %, and housing services rose by 10.2 % : utilities - 11.6% , cold water supply and sanitation - by 11.2 % , heating - 12 % , gas - by 14.1 % , hot water supply - by 13.2 % and electricity - by 8.1 %. Not better things to actively privatized and kommertsializiruemoy budget and the social sphere : medical servants rose by 8% , passenger transportation services - by 9.5 %, services of cultural organizations - by 9.1 % , education services - 10% , and household services in January-September 2013. jumped in price by 7.8%. And this is only the official and highly " validolnuyu " Rosstat estimates inflation - in fact the growth rate of prices in the Russian economy at least 1.5 or even 2 times the " combed " evaluation of statistics.It is quite obvious that there is no increase in prices by 5% in 2014 . will not - at the official price increase will be at least 6-6.5 %, while real growth in prices for the majority of Russia's population will exceed 10%. Yeah, maybe not Rosstat to spoil the mood of the country's leadership , " draw " inflation of 5%. However, from anyone except the government officials will not be easier to live with - the Russians continue to empty his pockets , and their already modest incomes continue to migrate to the accounts of natural monopolies, dealers and traders . However, the Ministry of Finance retains ultimate cynicism - even substantial underreporting inflation outlook , students lobbied Kudrin freeze salaries for state employees and military personnel. The truth did it with small exceptions - autumn 2013. The government has decided not to deprive the ruling bureaucracy and increased salaries and remuneration of staff of the Presidential Administration , the Government Office , and federal departments and agencies ( primarily in the power block : MVD, FSB , FSO , Prosecutor's Office Investigative Committee , etc.) 2 3 ,5 - fold.Recall that even without the politically correct assessment of inflation in the next 3 years the Ministry of Finance plans to cut spending on the national economy , agriculture, science, education, culture , housing and infrastructure by 10-25% , and with the rise in prices cuts exceed 30-40% . It is frankly anti-modernization and anti-social budget in the best traditions of Gaidar shock therapy and macroeconomic stabilization - reducing all costs except the so-called " protected" items . If in 90 years to be treated exclusively maintenance costs of internal and external debt (ie, the government acts as a guarantor of international speculators and windfall homegrown oligarchs ) , today they are supplemented notorious " May's decrees " president. It turns out that the Ministry of Finance as part of the politically correct term " fiscal maneuver" financed campaign promises President price of spending cuts in the areas about which Putin forgot to mention .Lowering the price of oil - a symbol of " fiscal fetishism "Third, the budget forecast laid artificially low energy prices - about $ 93 per barrel of Urals in 2014g.i $ 95 in 2015 2016 . And despite the fact that for the first nine months of 2013. the average price of Russian export oil mixture exceeded $ 107.7 to $ A year earlier, exceeding level of $ 110 This is a direct consequence of consolidation at the legislative level of the notorious " fiscal rule ", which allows the Ministry of Finance to underestimate expenditure budget sheet and continue the policy of artificial budgetary underfunding economy industry, agriculture, engineering , utilities, infrastructure , innovation , research and development and the social sphere. And all the extra oil and gas revenue , amounting to hundreds of billions of rubles ( in some years it was a trillion rubles), resulting from the fact that the actual energy prices exceeded understated forecasts of the Government to withdraw from the budget sent to the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund and for export abroad to support the economies of strategic rivals .Understatement of oil prices at $ 1 automatically means a reduction in the magnitude of budget revenues by 75-80 billion rubles, of which 65 billion fall on oil and gas revenues (MET , export duties, excise taxes , etc.) , and 10-15 billion - on the non-oil revenues into force multiplier effect ( personal income tax, corporate income tax , etc.). It turns out that , if the budget for 2014. laid down the price of Urals blend oil in the amount of $ 93 , but in fact it will remain at the level of the current year and will be at least $ 108 , it would appear that the government artificially understate the income statement on almost $ 1 trillion. rubles. And by the same amount to understate the actual level of public funding priorities of socio- economic policy.Yes, of course the higher price of oil will lead to strengthening of the ruble and , consequently, to a reduction in budget revenues - ruble 50 kopecks . becomes pure deduction from the budget of $ 120-140 billion rubles. Therefore actually increase revenue will be about 800-850 billion rubles. However, we must understand that nothing prevents the Central Bank to keep strengthening of the ruble by increasing emissions of the national currency and the purchase of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. First, it will increase the size of international reserves , which fights for the Ministry of Finance . Second, it will increase the size of oil and gas revenues to the budget system from hydrocarbon exports . Third, it will increase the competitiveness of domestic products will make imported goods less affordable , and will let the weak, but still boost import substitution and revitalize depressed industry . Fourthly , it will overcome the negative trends in foreign trade - in January-September 2013. imports growing by 3.1 and exports declining by 1.9%. Fifth, it will stabilize the balance of payments , which causes more fear - the current account surplus fell from $ 25 billion in the first quarter of 2013. to 3.4 billion in the second and 1.1 billion in the third . Total for the first nine months of 2013. surplus shrank to $ 29.5 billion , which is two values never worse than last year ( $ 61.5 billion).Exchange price manipulation economic declineBy the way, this is the fourth flaw in government forecasts - artificially high rate of the Russian ruble, which will almost certainly not be able to keep within a predetermined range . And , if successful, then the price of foreign exchange intervention by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation , a waste of international reserves , creating a shortage of money in the interbank market and the economy in general , rising interest rates and increased cost of credit resources and , as a consequence, the decline of the real economy and degradation of high-tech industries. Artificially high exchange rate and interest rates in the economy , the Government and the Central Bank stepping on rakes 1998. and 2008. - Trying to lure Russian international financial speculators and guarantee a fixed income international usurers , officials destroying the remnants of the domestic non-oil economy and assign the status of Russian raw colony financial tank market for products of transnational corporations and , at best, "screwdriver production" assembly imported components , allowing foreign industrial giants to evade import duties and earn profits.So , to the Government's draft budget for 2014. laid the ruble to the dollar at a rate of 33.4 rubles in 2014 . , 34.3 rubles - in 2015. and 34.9 rubles in 2016. These projections are seen excessively optimistic : only for the period from spring 2013. August the Russian ruble depreciated by 11% against the U.S. dollar - from 30 to 33.4 rubles per dollar. Yes, at the moment against the background of increasingly expensive oil and instability around the debt ceiling in the U.S. , the ruble strengthened to 31.8 rubles per dollar. However, it is already clear that by the end , he must return to the range 32,7-33 rubles. Otherwise, the destruction not only of the balance of payments ( current account surplus is already the lowest since the default to 1998 . ) , But the final decline of the domestic economy and a massive crisis in the industry. Then the government will be forced to devalue the ruble is not 1.5-2 rubles, and all 4-5 rubles, which cause a surge of popular discontent , social protest and the inability of many companies and banks to service their external debt. Note that corporate external debt of Russia grew from $ 492.5 billion in January 2012. to $ 639.5 billion in the beginning of October 2013. , and total external debt reached $ 719.6 billion, up 30% and the amount of international reserves ( $ 517 billion ) and the maximum mark of external loans crisis in the autumn of 2008. (about $ 530 billion).But back to the oil price . It is worth saying that the budget for 2013. were also laid artificially low projections for the price of oil - the budget of the Turkel price of $ 97 per barrel. In fact the prices were $ 10 higher. However, even this did not help to keep afloat domestic de-industrialized and non-competitive " oil and gas Titanic" - the industry is growing at barely noticeable 0.1% decline in the manufacturing sector by 0.3% in electricity , gas and water supply decreased by 0.5% , freight traffic is reduced by 2.6% , exports of goods falling by 1.9 % and imports growing by 3.1% , while the scale of net capital outflow in the first nine months came close to around $ 49 billion in March, the Ministry of Economy proposed a revision oil prices are forecast to $ 105 per barrel , that would lead to more than 600 billion rubles in additional revenue and the budget deficit instead of 1.5 % to account from a deficit of 0.1% of GDP .However, the Ministry of Finance stands firmly in its position " kudrinomiki " - Gaidar flatly refuse to unpack " money-box " and refuse to send them to finance infrastructure and high-tech industries , scaring the public the flywheel mythological threats of inflation and the fact that the money will still be stolen and taken offshore. A reasonable question - why do we need such a Ministry of Finance and law enforcement agencies , who can not ( or rather do not want ) to ensure control over the spending of taxpayers' money . In the United States , Germany, France , Japan, South Korea and many other countries manage to control budget spending , and high-ranking officials in Russia who do not want to perform his duties and mired in corruption , offering nothing at all to fund and allocate money to anyone , so as they were allegedly stolen anyway ?Save Wale Street - Loans in the U.S. their own money to replenish the " oil and gas Potbelly "This kind of " mistakes " in assessing energy prices observed over all "fat zero" - students Gaidar in the Finance (especially in the face three times better according to the British Bankers' Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin ) deliberately understate forecast oil that allows them to chronically underfunded industry , innovation, human capital and infrastructure and at the same store the oil and gas money in a jug . A artificially created by themselves cover the deficit by borrowing , both within Russia and abroad , involving, as its own funds previously withdrawn from the Russian economy in the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund and on correspondent accounts in U.S. and European banks.Annually from such financial innovations only Russian budget system loses about 300-400 billion rubles. Thus, in 2013. maintenance of internal and external public debt The government will spend about 380 billion rubles , while the placement of the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund will receive no more than 40-50 billion rubles. In 2012. servicing loans was spent 320-330 billion rubles, while revenues from investments reserve funds abroad have not exceeded 40 billion rubles. On the whole, Russia's economy annually loses about 1-1.2 trillion . rubles on scissors per cent, tenth of the total budget. And , if you believe the official balance of payments data CBR, total net investment losses of all businesses in the order of 52-53 billion dollars annually (ie 1.6-1.7 trillion . Rubles, or 2.8% of GDP ) . This is a net loss of interest payments on foreign loans , foreign investors dividends and other income financial speculators who are domestic companies and banks into force domestically shallowness investment banking system and lack of available long-term investment of resources.Read more - all with the Ministry of Finance surprises in Skolkovo innovative approach to fiscal policy. Over the past three years the Ministry of Finance manages not only to increase borrowing to finance their budget deficits had created , but also to replenish the reserve funds. The Ministry of Finance has increased in recent years, domestic and foreign debt to $ 3 trillion. Rubles, of which $ 2 trillion. returned to creditors in the U.S. and the EU, to the Reserve Fund . A $ 1 trillion. thrown to finance budget deficits. Not surprisingly, the cost of servicing the national debt jumped 3 times in the last 3 years - from 145 to 420 billion rubles.It should say that the accumulation of " coffin stash " price increase debt loans and retention soldering economy, infrastructure, science and social development will continue in the next three years. According to its budget for 2014. and the planning period 2015 to 2016 . the Reserve Fund Russia will grow from $ 2.8 trillion . rubles in 2014 . to 3.27 trillion . rubles in 2016. While the National Welfare Fund will swell from 2.85 to 2.93 trillion . rubles. At the same time in order to finance the budget deficit in intumescent " reserve funds " allowed significant borrowing. Domestic loans in 2014 . can be up to 808.7 billion rubles in 2015. - Up to 1.147 trillion rubles, and in 2016. exceed 1.24 trillion rubles. Annual borrowing on the international market are set at about $ 7 billion is planned that the national debt will increase from 12% of GDP in 2013 to 14.3 % of GDP in 2016 - from 8.1 to 12.4 trillion . rubles.Ministry of Finance continues to build a pyramid of debt on level ground, reached into his pocket for ordinary citizens , industrialists and farmers . And if in 1995 and 1998 . budget did not have the money ( tax collection fell to 33% , the oligarchs took out assets abroad ( taken more than $ 500 billion ) , export revenue has been received in the country , tolling exsanguinated budget gratuitous privatization gave no income tax credits and incentives oligarchs emptied the treasury , and the economy was in a state of crisis , etc. ), then the state is now bogged down by the influx of petrodollars and does not know what other corruption- " Olympic construction " , World Championships and APEC summits to spend 7.2 trillion . rubles, without lying affairs at the Ministry of Finance or the American and European banks ( the Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund swelled to 5.7 trillion . rubles ) or deposits in Russian banks (about 870 billion) , or listed as unallocated balance .Along with the cost of the power unit and on rearmament is the only growing budget expenditure . This budget financial speculators and security officials - in their favor redistributed growing part of the national income . We are dealing with the return of the dashing 1990s - in 1997 . , A year before the default and the collapse of the pyramid of debt in August 1998. , The Finance Ministry led by Chubais's team also announced a 5% sequestration . Then it was over the destruction of the pyramid of debt and default ad .Apparently , the students again Gaidar want vevsetit country in socio- economic catastrophe . And , unfortunately , yet they do it . Adopted on first reading in the State Duma budget today is unrealizable fantasy - all the key macroeconomic indicators rigged and tampered with in order to minimize as government spending to support economic and social development and to preserve the possibility of seizures allegedly " unplanned " oil and gas revenues in the oil and gas and a jug to spending on upgrading the U.S. economy, the EU and other industrialized countries."Oil and gas curse economy" especially in the minds and actions of the liberal fifth columnUnder the bill, the budget revenues for 2014. planned in the amount of over 13.57 trillion . rubles - 18.5% of GDP for 2015 . - 14560000000000 . ( 18.3 % of GDP) , and in 2016. - 15.9 trillion . - Also 18.3 % of GDP. Budget expenditures in 2014 are planned in the amount of 13.96 trillion . rubles (about 19 % of GDP) in 2015. - 15360000000000 . (19.3% of GDP ) and in 2016. - 16390000000000 . rubles , equivalent to 18.9 % of GDP. It is highly significant that the country's budget deficit in 2014 . projected at 0.5 % of GDP in 2015. - 1% in 2016. - 0.6 %. As shown above , by virtue of the original fallacy underlying macroeconomic forecasts and prerequisites extremely high probability that all of the budgeted estimates prove elusive " Manilovism ", and the actual size of budget revenues and public spending will be much lower than estimates of the Ministry of Finance .Same overt manifestation of utopia and attempts mass hypnosis are assured officials that alleged in the proposed budget starts to get off Russian oil needle . Despite the fact that even the supporters of the doctrine of " market fundamentalism " and the "Washington Consensus" forced to admit that no modernization of the economy does not happen , the country sits raw needle ( as , indeed, on the tip of external loans , as well as on imports of the needle ) , and the dependence federal budget revenues from oil and gas remains high. The ministry promised share of oil revenues in the Russian budget will decrease from 8.9 % of GDP in 2014. to 7.9 % of GDP in 2016. While the share of other , ie non-oil revenues will increase from 9.6 % of GDP in 2014. to 10.4% in 2016. But it is clear that, first , the percentage of federal budget revenues in 2014 2016 . will continue to be income from customs duties , VAT and MET. And secondly , reducing the non-oil budget deficit will not be at the expense of industrial diversification of industry and high-tech production rise , and by reducing the scale of financing the economy, science , housing, infrastructure and social services from the federal government under the simultaneous transfer of the burden of social spending and funding " May decrees " President Putin on the already scarce regional budgets .Vladislav ZhukovskySource : red-sovet.su
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