January 27, 2014 , " Gazeta.ru, "
Ruble went to White Castle
The euro exchange rate set by the Central Bank increased to 47.49 rubles. So expensive it did not cost more than ever. The dollar jumped to 34.7 rubles. Analysts describe the situation as " panic " in the banks in some regions marked currency shortage . Experts note that the weakening of the ruble opportunities to improve revenue performance commodity exporters and replenish the Russian budget , but is not able to spur economic growth.
Devaluation of the ruble on Monday continued. On the Moscow stock exchange rate of the euro to 11.30 tomorrow calculations ( which focuses on the central bank , exposing the official rate for tomorrow ) climbed to 47.49 rubles . / €.
This is 60 kopecks . above the official rate of the Central Bank on Saturday and maximum for the whole history of trade - so much for euros at the official exchange rate in Russia is not allowed ever.
Previous record 47.25 rubles . / € was established in February 2009 . On Friday , January 24 , in the course of trading the euro rose to 47.35 rubles . / €.
Dollar average rate calculations tomorrow was 34.7 rubles. / $ . It is 44 kopecks . more than the rate of the CB on Saturday.
External cause of the fall - a lot of pressure on the currencies of most developing countries, ahead of a meeting of the Federal Reserve System ( FRS) the USA , from which market participants expect continued reduction incentive program . " With the decline in quantitative support from key central banks of developing countries of the world have nothing to give investors as a trading ideas because of minimal economic growth " , - states currency analysts Bank "Zenit" in his review .
" In the international financial markets , the trend of investors from risky assets . This is reflected in the fall of commodity currencies and emerging market currencies , falling stock markets and stagnation in the market raw materials and energy - and says a senior trader at the bank " Globex " Igor Zelencov . - The focus of market participants drawn to the Fed meeting , held on Wednesday , January 29. Most analysts expect continued reduction of quantitative easing program by $ 10 billion a month . Possible break from the Federal Reserve can dramatically change the balance of forces in the markets and cause massive correction . "
Internal factors have increased weakening of the ruble . " These factors may include statements by officials admitting the weakening of the national currency and to consider this process as favorable for the development of the economy , which is experiencing hard times - said Zelencov . - Events in Ukraine and unfavorable background information around the Olympics in Sochi added tension in the current situation . "
"The current situation on the currency market similar to panic , which is not yet fully joined the strong devaluation expectations on the part of the population" - note the "Zenith" .
However, some places are already experiencing panic . In some regions, there is a shortage of currency in banks according to RIA "Novosti" , this seaside branches Mosoblbank , Primterkombanka and Sberbank. In some branches of other banks reported a limited number of cash - up to thousands of dollars . Also, in some branches noted that funds can arrive within a week .
Nearest taxes (MET , excise and income tax would require about 460 billion rubles. From the banking system ) can have a very short-term support to the ruble , and the medium-term pressure on the Russian currency will remain palpable.
" Returns MET usually supporting the ruble, but today it is clear that in this case there is no special support - says analyst " Veles Capital " Yuri Kravchenko. - Now the way is open to bidders to 35 rub. / $ . " Significant role in achieving this mark will play psychological factors , he said. The euro exchange rate will also increase . "We have traditionally euro bought together with the dollar . Therefore, we can expect continued growth for the euro , "- says the analyst.
According to Kravchenko , falling ruble is temporary and will soon return to the course of 33 - 33.5 rubles. / $ . He calls several reasons for this.
First , bidders will want to take profits and will sell dollars . Secondly, the situation will change on Thursday , after the Fed meeting . "Reducing QE3 also does not bode well ruble. However, emotions have to calm down, " - he explained. Third, revealing dynamics at the beginning of 2009, when prices fell to 36 rub. / $ . Even then it leveled off , and there are much fewer negative factors. And last, but probably the most powerful argument .
" The Central Bank ambitious targets for inflation (5 % in 2014 . - " Herald " ) , which can not be reconciled weakening of the ruble . And precisely because of the reduction of CB interventions to start this fall of the ruble, we can hope that everything is under control and the Central Bank have leverage over the situation, " - explains Kravchenko.
Traditionally, the depreciation of the national currency is seen as a positive signal for producers because it allows to reduce the prices of exported goods , increasing their competitiveness and export earnings . All this would be so , experts say , if Russia had developed manufacturing industry.
Main exports are oil and gas , and thus benefit from the collapse of the ruble in the main oil companies receiving income from exports in foreign currency. Budget in this case can expect an increase in tax revenues from them.
Even the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev not sure that the weakening of the ruble a positive impact on economic growth. " Definitely useful attenuation for those who have a stable production base , and for whom it's just cost reduction. But for someone who conducts investment policy , upgrades , minus here rather than a plus , " - he said in an interview with " Prime " .
Author: Catherine Mereminskaya
-------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------Actual Archive08.08.2009 - Devaluation
August 6th State Duma deputy and member of the National Banking Council Anatoly Aksakov unexpectedly offered to devalue the ruble immediately by 30-40 percent . " This will benefit all - products will be competitive, win people - factories earn appear jobs benefit banks - will come from the debt companies " - said the deputy .
Devaluation of the ruble helpful
Yevsei Gurvich , head of the Economic Expert Group , a member of the Advisory Council on monetary policy , banking regulation and supervision at the chairman of the Bank of Russia . Ruble devaluation is necessary because it is a natural adaptation of the economy to the crisis conditions . First, devaluation helps to reduce imports, which is necessary to maintain the balance of payment in the fall in oil prices , metals and other Russian exports . Second, devaluation reduces production costs in dollar terms , and thus supports external competitiveness of Russian goods . Third, attempts to keep the exchange rate unchanged at a time when oil prices dropped several times , waiting for the inevitable form fast weakening of the national currency. The natural reaction of people and businesses in this situation - the transfer of all ruble-denominated assets into foreign currency . As a result of the outflow of capital increases the pressure on the ruble , the Central Bank is spending more reserves , the money is not in the economy and the currency market , the banks grow dollar denominated liabilities and removed . http://bo.bdc.ru/2009/5/pro_contra.htm
Central Bank of Russia has accelerated devaluationOfficial Euro rate set by the Central Bank on December 19 , was 39.7798 rubles. Thus , the day the European currency has risen by more than a ruble, but could not overcome the mark of 40 rubles. In trading on the MICEX this psychologically important milestone was reached during the trading session on 18 December . Some Russian exchangers euro also exceeded 40 rubles.
Official exchange rate on December 19 will be 27.6095 rubles. It's almost nine cents more than the previous day .
Simultaneous increase in the Central Bank of the dollar and the euro means that the corridor of fluctuations currency basket ( € 0.45 and $ 0.55 ) , in which the Central Bank held back drop in the value of the ruble was significantly extended . What is its upper limit , it is still unclear .
The sharp appreciation of the euro partly due to the fact that the global market , the European currency continues to rise against the dollar. Only in the last few days she has strengthened by a few cents and is trading at $ 1.45 .
Source : Lenta.ru
The purpose of this policy the Central Bank :1. Hold gold reserves decline . But as you know , these measures did not stop the decline in central bank reserves pollutants . If on November 7 , they were 475.4 billion dollars, on December 5 - 437 billion dollars. 2 . Saving income exporters of hydrocarbons and metals, in an environment of falling prices for oil and metals , due to lower labor costs in the country. The three largest oil producer in Russia - " Rosneft ", " Lukoil " and " Gazprom Neft " - reported record profits obtained in the first nine months of 2008. Last did a subsidiary of " Gazprom " - according to the company, the first three quarters , net income was $ 5.2 billion , which is 84.5 percent more than in the same period last year. Proceeds of " Gazprom Neft " has risen by 86 percent to 27.32 billion dollars.
Despite a significant increase in net profit , " Gazprom oil " is still not able to overtake on this indicator of its competitors. In early December, "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" reported that their net profit was 10.76 and $ 10.3 billion .
3 . Decrease in real government spending on social programs already designated by depreciation of the ruble .
How to save the state social programs , due to depreciation of the ruble , bude clear early next year .
The fact that such a trivial puzzle solves today CBR confirmed information about high profits of oil companies.
In the interests of the citizens !
Central Bank once again weakened the ruble.
In the course of trading on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange ruble fell by almost 40 kopecks . (from 33.46 rubles. to 33.81 rubles.) , ie more than 1% . Today's weakening of the ruble to the basket was the seventh since the beginning of the month. Last time the Bank of Russia resorted to such a step as recently as the day before. In general, over the last four months , the exchange rate fell against a basket consisting of $ 0.55 and € 0,45, more than 13 %.
Another psychological level reached and the U.S. dollar . As of 12:30 MSK greenback rose tomorrow calculations with respect to yesterday's index by more than 25 kopecks . and amounted to 28.6125 rubles. $ 1. At the opening of trading U.S. currency worth more expensive - 28.66 rubles. Thus , the dollar again highs against the ruble over the past three years. Together with the dollar has risen and the single European currency . Euro exchange rate calculations tomorrow rose nearly 39 kopecks . - Up to 40.09 rubles.
Russian monetary authorities are consistent in his promise to " smooth " the weakening of the ruble. According to the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev , the Bank of Russia such a deliberate policy in the interests of citizens and businesses, giving them time to select the currency strategy and preventing panic .
24.12 . 2008.
Source : Morning. ru
The central bank eased further ruble 45 kopecks , and he immediately fell to 29 rubles per $ 1 and close to 41 rubles per 1 euro. Soon ruble can and does go into free-swimming . This can happen when the trade balance reaches negative values, and it is on the right track there.
On Friday's trading, the dollar broke above 29 rubles , average U.S. dollar exchange rate "tomorrow" in a single trading session, the MICEX grew by 33 cent and amounted to 29.01 rubles per $ 1. Weighted average euro rate "today" rose 59 cents to $ 40.79 rubles.
With respect to the basket the ruble fell by 45 kopecks.
Today , the basket was 34.30 rubles , though two days before the central bank to support the ruble near the level of 33.85 rubles. But in the first minutes of trading today, the Bank of Russia has shifted its level of support . Thus , the central bank has weakened the ruble for the eighth time in December and the eleventh time since Nov. 11 , when the currency basket cost 30.4 rubles.
Fluctuations become even sharper when the trade balance will go to minus Russia . Government sources have hinted that the central bank during the devaluation is focused on the trade balance . Once it becomes negative , the Central Bank will release the ruble , as further retention rate would be meaningless .
" The central bank will devalue the ruble , to prevent the trade deficit " - agrees chief of analytical department of the Criminal Code "Capital" Sergei Karykhalin . Yet this figure to maintain a positive , but significantly reduced. According to the Bank of Russia, while in August trade surplus was $ 18.5 billion, in September the figure was $ 16.4 billion in October, he declined to $ 11.9 billion According to preliminary estimates , in November 's trade surplus fell to $ 7.1 billion, a substantial narrowing of the foreign trade turnover is falling global demand and lower prices for the main subject of Russian exports - oil, caused by the economic downturn. The government does not rule out the possibility that the balance can go into negative in the first quarter of 2009. Experts' forecasts even more gloomy .
"I am afraid that in December the balance may become negative ," - says Karykhalin .
From external currency market depends only those regarding the ruble will fall faster. While analysts find it difficult to identify any clear trend here . " The euro / dollar on the pre- week is at a crossroads . Technically, there was a correction after rising euro from $ 1.2380 to $ 1.4715 , after which growth can continue . On the other hand , while the euro is still in a downtrend , "- says financial analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich . According to him, the more likely scenario is a sharp and deep decline of the dollar. Most likely, this is the last ruble depreciation this year , as some sharp fluctuations until the end of the year is not expected. " Before the holidays , business activity is minimal. And the Forex market , the euro / dollar traded in a narrow range at 1.4019 . Think about the level of 1.40 and the auction will take place before the end of the year - says the expert group on trade in the foreign exchange markets IR " Brokercreditservice " Faith Morgatskaya . - What will happen after the holidays - hard to say , everything will depend on the balance of forces in the international markets , as well as the position of the new American government in its national currency . "
Lenta.ru
Glimpse of the past
To prevent strong ruble ?
Look through the press about the meeting with Putin A. Kudrin and puzzle : what are they talking about ? Just can not understand it . It seems that many journalists , describing the meeting , did not understand .
"Too strong ruble , according to the president , could undermine the competitiveness of the national economy", - the newspaper "Kommersant" .
How could undermine the national economy strong ruble ? Strong, I take them used the expression , might cut income commodity monopolies supplying hydrocarbon feedstock to the world market , but does not undermine , but rather to strengthen the position of producers in other industries. Americans lately do everything to strengthen the dollar , knowing that is the basis of stable existence of American manufacturers. And here, it turns out, the opposite is true .
Putin's statement on the unintelligible , even Bole intricately Kudrin says: " The main measures to prevent the strengthening - meets Alexei Kudrin - is the government's measures , but as soon as the government increases its spending by oil and gas revenues , it threatens the additional reinforcement. As part of the forecast , which we have prepared , we can keep in strengthening the planned parameters . "
Kudrin would stick with any one of the coordinate system , and is not to assert conflicting statements . Deputies and the people he says that the additional costs will cause inflation, and therefore need to be reduced and , in this case , from the cost increases due to oil and gas revenues , according to the minister , will strengthen the ruble. How will strengthen ? After all expenses will be made in rubles , not dollars , and therefore will increase ruble supply in relation to goods , the same dollar, which respectively reduce the real value of the ruble, and not strengthen .
Journalists "Vedomosti" Petrachkova Alexander , Alexander Bekker , and assessed the situation : "Strengthening of the ruble could threaten the economy , especially the real sector , said Vladimir Putin . Therefore the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will have to simultaneously fight inflation and the appreciation ."
It seems that the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank officials , who had taken too eager to fight inflation , at the request of the president, came on raw corn giants , but so painful that Vladimir Putin himself , undertook to maintain inflation.
"The president asked urgently to slow down the strengthening of the national currency ," - gives "Time of news ", " Putin instructed to slow down the ruble ," - says Larisa Kaftan in "Komsomolskaya Pravda" .
The fact that the strengthening of the ruble , unprofitable commodity monopolies , and this president is concerned , Putin did not hide . The President said that he met with representatives of large companies , " they still have a margin of safety ," but rapid strengthening of the ruble could create problems for them . Their products have become more expensive in comparison with import and lose global competition . How the government is going to save the day ? "
And in production, what goods we compete , if 70% of our exports are raw materials?
" We must prevent the strengthening of the ruble by all available means ! " - With dedication and joy minister said. And he was not pleased! After all this time, Kudrin only did it to please the big monopolies , supplying the world market oil, gas, metals , wood, and so on. Well, now , he is also the president got support. So now expect a new rise in prices , as Kudrin will start fighting with ruble with renewed vigor .
There is no doubt that Putin leaned to the side raw material monopolies . This is the only way to describe the president's statements he made at a meeting with Finance Minister Kudrin. Six months ago, the president set the goal to strengthen the ruble, reduce inflation , convertibility of the ruble , and now , under pressure from the hosts raw moguls , turns the entire policy in the opposite direction .
"How he found out after " contacts with business, " course on the ruble may damage the Russian economy. - The newspaper " Vedomosti " . - And here's to the Central Government and , in fact, put triple task : to prevent inflation , to keep the ruble and still increase state spending . Under these introductory expect interesting political season . If you do not resign, then serious failures GUARANTEED: task set by the President , is not feasible.
The situation will remain a stalemate , if not eliminate one of the three objectives - subject only two introductory equation can be solved . "
"To strengthen the ruble to the Russian authorities was convenient to suppress inflation . But now, when the president ordered not to do so , before the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank raises extremely difficult task - and not to strengthen the ruble , and fight rising prices . - Asks blankly "Izvestia". - So, forward inflation . "
Under pressure from raw material monopolies caved interests not only the president , but also the government , which has developed a three year plan to reduce budget revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons . For three years the share of extraction tax (MET) and export duties in the budget revenues will be reduced from 50% to 30 %. " This, according to Kudrin, and there is a way of reducing reliance budget on oil prices . 's Only oil tycoons and their lobbyists government , as apparently did not put off its dependence on oil revenues , rather pump oil and thank their benefactors.
Ivan Tevrizsky
23.08.2006 devaluation brought Russian oil 800 billion rubles weakening of the ruble against the dollar and euro has brought Russian oil since August 2008, about 800 billion rubles. About this newspaper "Vedomosti". According to " Rosneft " , which results in the publication , for oil exporters growth of the dollar is one ruble increase fuel prices by five dollars.
According to the vice - president of "Rosneft" Peter O'Braena , given the devaluation and export duties alignment company is now working " at a price of about $ 70 per barrel ." Recall , the devaluation of the Russian currency held by the Central Bank in November 2008 . At that time, the cost of the currency basket ( € 0.45 and $ 0.55 ) was a little more than 30 rubles. However, in early 2009, its price exceeded 40 rubles. February 12 , Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a government meeting devoted to the development of the oil industry , said that the tax burden on domestic oil has decreased by 500 billion rubles.
This is partly due to the reduction of export duties on oil , which from 1 January 2009 fell to 100.9 dollars. Last summer duty rate reached 495 dollars per ton. Source : Lenta.ru Journalists beguiled pretext for the devaluation of the ruble, with a true interest, and now wonder why the devaluation did not bring the promised results .
Devaluation is not in store 09/04/09 11:26
Forecasts authorities that the fall of the national currency will increase the competitiveness of Russian goods , do not come true . Working mainly on imported raw materials from the devaluation of the domestic industry only lost cash and just government claimed that this devaluation and they spend all of it will be good after . It turns out that they are not carried out , and there is nothing good from the devaluation of the ruble , and even in front of ... Prosherstila all posts last time - is not any evidence that the devaluation helped a particular industry , a particular production. Spell " fall of the national currency enhances competitiveness of national products " - does not work . But there are other examples of the impact of the devaluation perfect than promised us government charmers . The first major victim of the famous - " IzhAvto ". Purchasing mashinokomplektyi to build Korean KIA became unprofitable.
Five thousand workers laid off. Analysts expect that there will be a TagAZ and plants of " Sollers " who also work in a similar pattern . Favorite of all the Russian authorities since the time of the Politburo - "AvtoVAZ" , suffers from falling ruble. He planned to purchase and for the " Kalina " automatic transmission up to 20 % of the parts - imported , so that the plant can not raise prices on cars. Now he also receives state aid and increases prices . Okay , automotive . But of all sectors moans are heard as all depend on whether the import of equipment and raw materials there . That seems to be where possible breakthrough domestic producer after the fall of the ruble, not in the production of cosmetics and perfumes ? Incomes fell , surely people will turn their attention to the domestic oil and creams ... But no . As was the share of domestic companies in this market of more than $ 9 billion third and remains. And well, that has not yet fallen. Yet. About 80% of the raw materials used by our factories - also imports. This means that they are forced to raise prices for their products. Despite the fact that foreign corporations have much greater opportunities to regulate their prices than ours. Because of about 150 Russian manufacturers is dominated by small production , which to higher raw material prices are staggering profits . And now , when the loan for the purchase of raw materials can not be obtained , are on the verge of bankruptcy ...
http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2009/04/09_a_2971869.shtml
Devaluation helped Russian banks earn 900 billion rubles
Russian banks due to the devaluation of the ruble could earn from November 2008 through January 2009 for about 800-900 billion rubles. This statement was made deputy director of the State Corporation Deposit Insurance Agency ( DIA), Andrei Melnikov, reports "Interfax " . "I think that this margin of safety we can safely yet another quarter - live " - added Melnikov . Gradual devaluation of the Russian currency held by the Central Bank in mid-November last year and was completed in January this year. During this time the rate of the ruble against the currency basket ( $ 0.55 and 0.45 euros) decreased by 40 percent.
Due to the devaluation of the 30 largest Russian banks , which account for 80 percent of total assets , were able to increase their income the January almost doubled in relation to the same month of 2008. In addition, in late February it was reported that the devaluation brought Russian oil since August 2008, about 800 billion rubles. In early February, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin admitted for devaluation of the ruble. According to him , the domestic banks and companies were able to reserve $ 85 billion to service its foreign currency debt , and now they have enough money to meet its obligations on foreign loans over the next year .
Source : Lenta.ru
Ruble went to White Castle
The euro exchange rate set by the Central Bank increased to 47.49 rubles. So expensive it did not cost more than ever. The dollar jumped to 34.7 rubles. Analysts describe the situation as " panic " in the banks in some regions marked currency shortage . Experts note that the weakening of the ruble opportunities to improve revenue performance commodity exporters and replenish the Russian budget , but is not able to spur economic growth.
Devaluation of the ruble on Monday continued. On the Moscow stock exchange rate of the euro to 11.30 tomorrow calculations ( which focuses on the central bank , exposing the official rate for tomorrow ) climbed to 47.49 rubles . / €.
This is 60 kopecks . above the official rate of the Central Bank on Saturday and maximum for the whole history of trade - so much for euros at the official exchange rate in Russia is not allowed ever.
Previous record 47.25 rubles . / € was established in February 2009 . On Friday , January 24 , in the course of trading the euro rose to 47.35 rubles . / €.
Dollar average rate calculations tomorrow was 34.7 rubles. / $ . It is 44 kopecks . more than the rate of the CB on Saturday.
External cause of the fall - a lot of pressure on the currencies of most developing countries, ahead of a meeting of the Federal Reserve System ( FRS) the USA , from which market participants expect continued reduction incentive program . " With the decline in quantitative support from key central banks of developing countries of the world have nothing to give investors as a trading ideas because of minimal economic growth " , - states currency analysts Bank "Zenit" in his review .
" In the international financial markets , the trend of investors from risky assets . This is reflected in the fall of commodity currencies and emerging market currencies , falling stock markets and stagnation in the market raw materials and energy - and says a senior trader at the bank " Globex " Igor Zelencov . - The focus of market participants drawn to the Fed meeting , held on Wednesday , January 29. Most analysts expect continued reduction of quantitative easing program by $ 10 billion a month . Possible break from the Federal Reserve can dramatically change the balance of forces in the markets and cause massive correction . "
Internal factors have increased weakening of the ruble . " These factors may include statements by officials admitting the weakening of the national currency and to consider this process as favorable for the development of the economy , which is experiencing hard times - said Zelencov . - Events in Ukraine and unfavorable background information around the Olympics in Sochi added tension in the current situation . "
"The current situation on the currency market similar to panic , which is not yet fully joined the strong devaluation expectations on the part of the population" - note the "Zenith" .
However, some places are already experiencing panic . In some regions, there is a shortage of currency in banks according to RIA "Novosti" , this seaside branches Mosoblbank , Primterkombanka and Sberbank. In some branches of other banks reported a limited number of cash - up to thousands of dollars . Also, in some branches noted that funds can arrive within a week .
Nearest taxes (MET , excise and income tax would require about 460 billion rubles. From the banking system ) can have a very short-term support to the ruble , and the medium-term pressure on the Russian currency will remain palpable.
" Returns MET usually supporting the ruble, but today it is clear that in this case there is no special support - says analyst " Veles Capital " Yuri Kravchenko. - Now the way is open to bidders to 35 rub. / $ . " Significant role in achieving this mark will play psychological factors , he said. The euro exchange rate will also increase . "We have traditionally euro bought together with the dollar . Therefore, we can expect continued growth for the euro , "- says the analyst.
According to Kravchenko , falling ruble is temporary and will soon return to the course of 33 - 33.5 rubles. / $ . He calls several reasons for this.
First , bidders will want to take profits and will sell dollars . Secondly, the situation will change on Thursday , after the Fed meeting . "Reducing QE3 also does not bode well ruble. However, emotions have to calm down, " - he explained. Third, revealing dynamics at the beginning of 2009, when prices fell to 36 rub. / $ . Even then it leveled off , and there are much fewer negative factors. And last, but probably the most powerful argument .
" The Central Bank ambitious targets for inflation (5 % in 2014 . - " Herald " ) , which can not be reconciled weakening of the ruble . And precisely because of the reduction of CB interventions to start this fall of the ruble, we can hope that everything is under control and the Central Bank have leverage over the situation, " - explains Kravchenko.
Traditionally, the depreciation of the national currency is seen as a positive signal for producers because it allows to reduce the prices of exported goods , increasing their competitiveness and export earnings . All this would be so , experts say , if Russia had developed manufacturing industry.
Main exports are oil and gas , and thus benefit from the collapse of the ruble in the main oil companies receiving income from exports in foreign currency. Budget in this case can expect an increase in tax revenues from them.
Even the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev not sure that the weakening of the ruble a positive impact on economic growth. " Definitely useful attenuation for those who have a stable production base , and for whom it's just cost reduction. But for someone who conducts investment policy , upgrades , minus here rather than a plus , " - he said in an interview with " Prime " .
Author: Catherine Mereminskaya
-------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------Actual Archive08.08.2009 - Devaluation
August 6th State Duma deputy and member of the National Banking Council Anatoly Aksakov unexpectedly offered to devalue the ruble immediately by 30-40 percent . " This will benefit all - products will be competitive, win people - factories earn appear jobs benefit banks - will come from the debt companies " - said the deputy .
Devaluation of the ruble helpful
Yevsei Gurvich , head of the Economic Expert Group , a member of the Advisory Council on monetary policy , banking regulation and supervision at the chairman of the Bank of Russia . Ruble devaluation is necessary because it is a natural adaptation of the economy to the crisis conditions . First, devaluation helps to reduce imports, which is necessary to maintain the balance of payment in the fall in oil prices , metals and other Russian exports . Second, devaluation reduces production costs in dollar terms , and thus supports external competitiveness of Russian goods . Third, attempts to keep the exchange rate unchanged at a time when oil prices dropped several times , waiting for the inevitable form fast weakening of the national currency. The natural reaction of people and businesses in this situation - the transfer of all ruble-denominated assets into foreign currency . As a result of the outflow of capital increases the pressure on the ruble , the Central Bank is spending more reserves , the money is not in the economy and the currency market , the banks grow dollar denominated liabilities and removed . http://bo.bdc.ru/2009/5/pro_contra.htm
Central Bank of Russia has accelerated devaluationOfficial Euro rate set by the Central Bank on December 19 , was 39.7798 rubles. Thus , the day the European currency has risen by more than a ruble, but could not overcome the mark of 40 rubles. In trading on the MICEX this psychologically important milestone was reached during the trading session on 18 December . Some Russian exchangers euro also exceeded 40 rubles.
Official exchange rate on December 19 will be 27.6095 rubles. It's almost nine cents more than the previous day .
Simultaneous increase in the Central Bank of the dollar and the euro means that the corridor of fluctuations currency basket ( € 0.45 and $ 0.55 ) , in which the Central Bank held back drop in the value of the ruble was significantly extended . What is its upper limit , it is still unclear .
The sharp appreciation of the euro partly due to the fact that the global market , the European currency continues to rise against the dollar. Only in the last few days she has strengthened by a few cents and is trading at $ 1.45 .
Source : Lenta.ru
The purpose of this policy the Central Bank :1. Hold gold reserves decline . But as you know , these measures did not stop the decline in central bank reserves pollutants . If on November 7 , they were 475.4 billion dollars, on December 5 - 437 billion dollars. 2 . Saving income exporters of hydrocarbons and metals, in an environment of falling prices for oil and metals , due to lower labor costs in the country. The three largest oil producer in Russia - " Rosneft ", " Lukoil " and " Gazprom Neft " - reported record profits obtained in the first nine months of 2008. Last did a subsidiary of " Gazprom " - according to the company, the first three quarters , net income was $ 5.2 billion , which is 84.5 percent more than in the same period last year. Proceeds of " Gazprom Neft " has risen by 86 percent to 27.32 billion dollars.
Despite a significant increase in net profit , " Gazprom oil " is still not able to overtake on this indicator of its competitors. In early December, "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" reported that their net profit was 10.76 and $ 10.3 billion .
3 . Decrease in real government spending on social programs already designated by depreciation of the ruble .
How to save the state social programs , due to depreciation of the ruble , bude clear early next year .
The fact that such a trivial puzzle solves today CBR confirmed information about high profits of oil companies.
In the interests of the citizens !
Central Bank once again weakened the ruble.
In the course of trading on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange ruble fell by almost 40 kopecks . (from 33.46 rubles. to 33.81 rubles.) , ie more than 1% . Today's weakening of the ruble to the basket was the seventh since the beginning of the month. Last time the Bank of Russia resorted to such a step as recently as the day before. In general, over the last four months , the exchange rate fell against a basket consisting of $ 0.55 and € 0,45, more than 13 %.
Another psychological level reached and the U.S. dollar . As of 12:30 MSK greenback rose tomorrow calculations with respect to yesterday's index by more than 25 kopecks . and amounted to 28.6125 rubles. $ 1. At the opening of trading U.S. currency worth more expensive - 28.66 rubles. Thus , the dollar again highs against the ruble over the past three years. Together with the dollar has risen and the single European currency . Euro exchange rate calculations tomorrow rose nearly 39 kopecks . - Up to 40.09 rubles.
Russian monetary authorities are consistent in his promise to " smooth " the weakening of the ruble. According to the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexei Ulyukayev , the Bank of Russia such a deliberate policy in the interests of citizens and businesses, giving them time to select the currency strategy and preventing panic .
24.12 . 2008.
Source : Morning. ru
The central bank eased further ruble 45 kopecks , and he immediately fell to 29 rubles per $ 1 and close to 41 rubles per 1 euro. Soon ruble can and does go into free-swimming . This can happen when the trade balance reaches negative values, and it is on the right track there.
On Friday's trading, the dollar broke above 29 rubles , average U.S. dollar exchange rate "tomorrow" in a single trading session, the MICEX grew by 33 cent and amounted to 29.01 rubles per $ 1. Weighted average euro rate "today" rose 59 cents to $ 40.79 rubles.
With respect to the basket the ruble fell by 45 kopecks.
Today , the basket was 34.30 rubles , though two days before the central bank to support the ruble near the level of 33.85 rubles. But in the first minutes of trading today, the Bank of Russia has shifted its level of support . Thus , the central bank has weakened the ruble for the eighth time in December and the eleventh time since Nov. 11 , when the currency basket cost 30.4 rubles.
Fluctuations become even sharper when the trade balance will go to minus Russia . Government sources have hinted that the central bank during the devaluation is focused on the trade balance . Once it becomes negative , the Central Bank will release the ruble , as further retention rate would be meaningless .
" The central bank will devalue the ruble , to prevent the trade deficit " - agrees chief of analytical department of the Criminal Code "Capital" Sergei Karykhalin . Yet this figure to maintain a positive , but significantly reduced. According to the Bank of Russia, while in August trade surplus was $ 18.5 billion, in September the figure was $ 16.4 billion in October, he declined to $ 11.9 billion According to preliminary estimates , in November 's trade surplus fell to $ 7.1 billion, a substantial narrowing of the foreign trade turnover is falling global demand and lower prices for the main subject of Russian exports - oil, caused by the economic downturn. The government does not rule out the possibility that the balance can go into negative in the first quarter of 2009. Experts' forecasts even more gloomy .
"I am afraid that in December the balance may become negative ," - says Karykhalin .
From external currency market depends only those regarding the ruble will fall faster. While analysts find it difficult to identify any clear trend here . " The euro / dollar on the pre- week is at a crossroads . Technically, there was a correction after rising euro from $ 1.2380 to $ 1.4715 , after which growth can continue . On the other hand , while the euro is still in a downtrend , "- says financial analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich . According to him, the more likely scenario is a sharp and deep decline of the dollar. Most likely, this is the last ruble depreciation this year , as some sharp fluctuations until the end of the year is not expected. " Before the holidays , business activity is minimal. And the Forex market , the euro / dollar traded in a narrow range at 1.4019 . Think about the level of 1.40 and the auction will take place before the end of the year - says the expert group on trade in the foreign exchange markets IR " Brokercreditservice " Faith Morgatskaya . - What will happen after the holidays - hard to say , everything will depend on the balance of forces in the international markets , as well as the position of the new American government in its national currency . "
Lenta.ru
Glimpse of the past
To prevent strong ruble ?
Look through the press about the meeting with Putin A. Kudrin and puzzle : what are they talking about ? Just can not understand it . It seems that many journalists , describing the meeting , did not understand .
"Too strong ruble , according to the president , could undermine the competitiveness of the national economy", - the newspaper "Kommersant" .
How could undermine the national economy strong ruble ? Strong, I take them used the expression , might cut income commodity monopolies supplying hydrocarbon feedstock to the world market , but does not undermine , but rather to strengthen the position of producers in other industries. Americans lately do everything to strengthen the dollar , knowing that is the basis of stable existence of American manufacturers. And here, it turns out, the opposite is true .
Putin's statement on the unintelligible , even Bole intricately Kudrin says: " The main measures to prevent the strengthening - meets Alexei Kudrin - is the government's measures , but as soon as the government increases its spending by oil and gas revenues , it threatens the additional reinforcement. As part of the forecast , which we have prepared , we can keep in strengthening the planned parameters . "
Kudrin would stick with any one of the coordinate system , and is not to assert conflicting statements . Deputies and the people he says that the additional costs will cause inflation, and therefore need to be reduced and , in this case , from the cost increases due to oil and gas revenues , according to the minister , will strengthen the ruble. How will strengthen ? After all expenses will be made in rubles , not dollars , and therefore will increase ruble supply in relation to goods , the same dollar, which respectively reduce the real value of the ruble, and not strengthen .
Journalists "Vedomosti" Petrachkova Alexander , Alexander Bekker , and assessed the situation : "Strengthening of the ruble could threaten the economy , especially the real sector , said Vladimir Putin . Therefore the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank will have to simultaneously fight inflation and the appreciation ."
It seems that the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank officials , who had taken too eager to fight inflation , at the request of the president, came on raw corn giants , but so painful that Vladimir Putin himself , undertook to maintain inflation.
"The president asked urgently to slow down the strengthening of the national currency ," - gives "Time of news ", " Putin instructed to slow down the ruble ," - says Larisa Kaftan in "Komsomolskaya Pravda" .
The fact that the strengthening of the ruble , unprofitable commodity monopolies , and this president is concerned , Putin did not hide . The President said that he met with representatives of large companies , " they still have a margin of safety ," but rapid strengthening of the ruble could create problems for them . Their products have become more expensive in comparison with import and lose global competition . How the government is going to save the day ? "
And in production, what goods we compete , if 70% of our exports are raw materials?
" We must prevent the strengthening of the ruble by all available means ! " - With dedication and joy minister said. And he was not pleased! After all this time, Kudrin only did it to please the big monopolies , supplying the world market oil, gas, metals , wood, and so on. Well, now , he is also the president got support. So now expect a new rise in prices , as Kudrin will start fighting with ruble with renewed vigor .
There is no doubt that Putin leaned to the side raw material monopolies . This is the only way to describe the president's statements he made at a meeting with Finance Minister Kudrin. Six months ago, the president set the goal to strengthen the ruble, reduce inflation , convertibility of the ruble , and now , under pressure from the hosts raw moguls , turns the entire policy in the opposite direction .
"How he found out after " contacts with business, " course on the ruble may damage the Russian economy. - The newspaper " Vedomosti " . - And here's to the Central Government and , in fact, put triple task : to prevent inflation , to keep the ruble and still increase state spending . Under these introductory expect interesting political season . If you do not resign, then serious failures GUARANTEED: task set by the President , is not feasible.
The situation will remain a stalemate , if not eliminate one of the three objectives - subject only two introductory equation can be solved . "
"To strengthen the ruble to the Russian authorities was convenient to suppress inflation . But now, when the president ordered not to do so , before the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank raises extremely difficult task - and not to strengthen the ruble , and fight rising prices . - Asks blankly "Izvestia". - So, forward inflation . "
Under pressure from raw material monopolies caved interests not only the president , but also the government , which has developed a three year plan to reduce budget revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons . For three years the share of extraction tax (MET) and export duties in the budget revenues will be reduced from 50% to 30 %. " This, according to Kudrin, and there is a way of reducing reliance budget on oil prices . 's Only oil tycoons and their lobbyists government , as apparently did not put off its dependence on oil revenues , rather pump oil and thank their benefactors.
Ivan Tevrizsky
23.08.2006 devaluation brought Russian oil 800 billion rubles weakening of the ruble against the dollar and euro has brought Russian oil since August 2008, about 800 billion rubles. About this newspaper "Vedomosti". According to " Rosneft " , which results in the publication , for oil exporters growth of the dollar is one ruble increase fuel prices by five dollars.
According to the vice - president of "Rosneft" Peter O'Braena , given the devaluation and export duties alignment company is now working " at a price of about $ 70 per barrel ." Recall , the devaluation of the Russian currency held by the Central Bank in November 2008 . At that time, the cost of the currency basket ( € 0.45 and $ 0.55 ) was a little more than 30 rubles. However, in early 2009, its price exceeded 40 rubles. February 12 , Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a government meeting devoted to the development of the oil industry , said that the tax burden on domestic oil has decreased by 500 billion rubles.
This is partly due to the reduction of export duties on oil , which from 1 January 2009 fell to 100.9 dollars. Last summer duty rate reached 495 dollars per ton. Source : Lenta.ru Journalists beguiled pretext for the devaluation of the ruble, with a true interest, and now wonder why the devaluation did not bring the promised results .
Devaluation is not in store 09/04/09 11:26
Forecasts authorities that the fall of the national currency will increase the competitiveness of Russian goods , do not come true . Working mainly on imported raw materials from the devaluation of the domestic industry only lost cash and just government claimed that this devaluation and they spend all of it will be good after . It turns out that they are not carried out , and there is nothing good from the devaluation of the ruble , and even in front of ... Prosherstila all posts last time - is not any evidence that the devaluation helped a particular industry , a particular production. Spell " fall of the national currency enhances competitiveness of national products " - does not work . But there are other examples of the impact of the devaluation perfect than promised us government charmers . The first major victim of the famous - " IzhAvto ". Purchasing mashinokomplektyi to build Korean KIA became unprofitable.
Five thousand workers laid off. Analysts expect that there will be a TagAZ and plants of " Sollers " who also work in a similar pattern . Favorite of all the Russian authorities since the time of the Politburo - "AvtoVAZ" , suffers from falling ruble. He planned to purchase and for the " Kalina " automatic transmission up to 20 % of the parts - imported , so that the plant can not raise prices on cars. Now he also receives state aid and increases prices . Okay , automotive . But of all sectors moans are heard as all depend on whether the import of equipment and raw materials there . That seems to be where possible breakthrough domestic producer after the fall of the ruble, not in the production of cosmetics and perfumes ? Incomes fell , surely people will turn their attention to the domestic oil and creams ... But no . As was the share of domestic companies in this market of more than $ 9 billion third and remains. And well, that has not yet fallen. Yet. About 80% of the raw materials used by our factories - also imports. This means that they are forced to raise prices for their products. Despite the fact that foreign corporations have much greater opportunities to regulate their prices than ours. Because of about 150 Russian manufacturers is dominated by small production , which to higher raw material prices are staggering profits . And now , when the loan for the purchase of raw materials can not be obtained , are on the verge of bankruptcy ...
http://www.gazeta.ru/comments/2009/04/09_a_2971869.shtml
Devaluation helped Russian banks earn 900 billion rubles
Russian banks due to the devaluation of the ruble could earn from November 2008 through January 2009 for about 800-900 billion rubles. This statement was made deputy director of the State Corporation Deposit Insurance Agency ( DIA), Andrei Melnikov, reports "Interfax " . "I think that this margin of safety we can safely yet another quarter - live " - added Melnikov . Gradual devaluation of the Russian currency held by the Central Bank in mid-November last year and was completed in January this year. During this time the rate of the ruble against the currency basket ( $ 0.55 and 0.45 euros) decreased by 40 percent.
Due to the devaluation of the 30 largest Russian banks , which account for 80 percent of total assets , were able to increase their income the January almost doubled in relation to the same month of 2008. In addition, in late February it was reported that the devaluation brought Russian oil since August 2008, about 800 billion rubles. In early February, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin admitted for devaluation of the ruble. According to him , the domestic banks and companies were able to reserve $ 85 billion to service its foreign currency debt , and now they have enough money to meet its obligations on foreign loans over the next year .
Source : Lenta.ru
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий