Russian economy falls , and nobody knows what to do
News Newsland: Russian Economy falls , and nobody knows what to do
On Friday, January 17 A three-day marathon of the Gaidar Forum , which was called "Russia and the world : sustainable development ." However , as it turned out , neither of which is not only " stable" , but even in an unstable economy development in Russia and not talking . Economy slips into a deep pit .However, as stated by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev , Russia's problems today are not the result of mistakes of the past , which , they say, was not so much. "On the contrary , it is rather a consequence of the success of the economic policies of the last 10-12 years, which allowed the country to make a dramatic leap forward ", - said the prime minister . That's it ripens !In general , it was about the same as for all other Gaidar forums. MoF glad success of fiscal policy , Economic Development promised a record low population growth rates in the next year , the central bank announced the new name of the situation in Russia : we have now is not a crisis and stagflation . The head of the Ministry of Economic Alexei Ulyukayev a surprise for business: after cleaning in the banking sector and private pension funds , will begin cleaning the third element of the financial system - the insurance sector . According to the minister , "it will generate confidence in the economy ."
Meanwhile, many economists believe that Russia is now facing a serious challenge , they're waiting for this year, at best, zero GDP growth , not excluding even the possibility of economic decline by 1-2% . " The chances of a further slowdown of growth still look higher than the chances of reaching 2.5-3% growth, which seems real to the Russian government . Dynamics of composite leading index Development Center indicates continued stagnation in the coming months , "- writes in his report to the director of the Center for Development HSE Natalia Akindinova .In general , the main conclusion emerging from the Gaidar Forum is that Russia's economy is falling and no one knows what to do . As stated by Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach : "This is starting to look like a situation which , according to the recollections of his grandfather, was in late 1941 - early 1942 ," not to give ammo - take the height . " We have, in fact, there is a serious imbalance between monetary policy , fiscal policy and the policy of growth, development and transformation of various sectors. They can come together on the stage of low growth . In this sense , the most stable being - it's all dead. He is not going anywhere , and can not fall anywhere " - quoted Deputy Prime agency .But most of all on the forum surprised Sberbank President German Gref , who " wholeheartedly " , said: " I opened the website of the Government of Russia and tried to understand what will be the program of the government in 2014 , and could not find it ." Here's a gloomy picture is ...Where did the crisis have Yassin ?Meanwhile, on the eve of the Gaidar Forum , a large " software " interview with the government to "Rossiyskaya Gazeta ", supervisor HSE Yevgeny Yasin , one of the authors of the economic program "Russia - 2020" , tried to give his view of the situation in the country. According to Yasin , Russia has just damping economic growth, but there is no crisis and economic collapse is not, they say, nothing catastrophic happens. How would you evaluate this statement venerable economist and former Minister of the Russian economy ? How can he not see the obvious , that from which not even the government itself denies ? This "joint venture" said senior economist Financial Group " Rick " Vladislav Zhukovsky.- It's kind of an attempt to legitimize and to withdraw from the impact that liberal Gaidar team, which now leads the financial and economic bloc of the government Medvedev . Yasin indirectly trying to say that nothing terrible this team did not have nothing to fear , nothing terrible happens . And no need to change anything. This is not a crisis , but just a little misunderstanding , almost cyclical downturn . Traditional local crisis of overproduction , characteristic of the capitalist economy . He either did not understand or hard pretends not to understand the main thing - it's a massive dive Russian " oil and gas Titanic" on the bottom. It is a systemic crisis of the resource-based "economy of pipe ." We ran aground . And very quickly drowning , even in the absence of the storm and complete calm - oil prices are very high and exceed the bar to 107.7 dollars per barrel."SP": - Economic growth Yasin offers improved attitude to business from the state that it is no longer his " nightmare" high taxes and levies . It's right?- It's true , no one argues that the system of public administration is mired in corruption and gratuities , and civil service officials regarded as sverhrentabelny investment project to fatten their own pockets in offshore jurisdictions . Yes , you need to give more freedom to small and medium businesses . But we are well aware that Yasin says not just about small business, he is concerned about a major raw oligarchic capital , which is due to his actions was created in the 90s . And all the major capitals in the 90s created either on the looting of state property in the credit and mortgage auctions and voucher privatization , or by plundering the state budget through the pyramid OFZ or the construction of various kinds of private corporate pyramids , like MMM funds " Chara " , "Tibet" and others. He says that it is impossible to increase the pressure on the rich and introduce a progressive scale of income taxation of individuals . Ostensibly, the poor and the impoverished majority of social labor only dreaming , as if to squeeze Abramovich to sell his boat and get drunk as a skunk ."SP": - The rate of growth of the Russian economy falling raw material is not the first year, but liberal economist expects improvement in the new year . I wonder what can be inferred such expectations ?- Why and for what reason should revive the "oil pump" ? Market fundamentalists and expected growth in the past year the Russian economy by 3-4% . It says only that they do not understand what structural imbalances accumulated in the economy, what enormous distortions in it exist. The best economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and even some of the economic advisers around Putin warned that Russia's economy is sinking into recession. As we roll down the slope under the strict guidance of the government of Medvedev, who successfully fails already poorly implemented " May decrees ." That there was a default resource-based "economy of pipe ." That continue to grow , drive petrodollars and the Soviet legacy , will not work - the basic infrastructure is in disrepair , depreciation of fixed assets in the economy is growing all the last quarter century ( officially over 50% , actually more than 75 %). What do we stand on the brink of social and economic abyss and man-made disasters era , against which the accident at the Sayano -Shushenskaya HPP , made possible as a result of the destructive power sector reform " in Chubais ' seem explosion of firecrackers in stock in New Year's Eve ."SP": - Now on ways out of the crisis . Yasin said that out of the crisis will help Russian foreign investment, about the same and constantly repeat in power. What is your opinion on this?- This is absolute nonsense . Must , on the contrary , focus on the Russian capital , as foreign investment - is mainly ( 92-95 %) loans that 2/3 spent on repayment of earlier loans and financial speculation , and only 5-6% - investment in fixed assets. Despite the fact that today would be one and a half times increase the volume of capital investments , if the money is not withdrawn from the economy of the state itself in reserve funds under the notorious " fiscal rule ", and were revived currency regulation and control , which would have blocked the channel 's annual illegal export of capital in the amount of 3.2 trillion rubles in the offshore. Not surprisingly, the rate of savings in capital ( income ) in the amount of 33 % of GDP, Russia has the rate of capital accumulation ( investment ) only in the amount of 23 % of GDP. That is, 10% of GDP is artificially frozen Treasury or exported oligarchs and businessmen tired of extortion abroad to finance the modernization of production in the U.S. and Europe."SP": - Yasin says that the young people who graduated from schools and universities , it is necessary to study not of management and marketing , and to teach fundamental , science : mathematics, physics , chemistry, biology , as it is for them the future of Russia. With this thesis , it is possible to agree ?- The trouble is that it is people like Yevgeny Yasin and his followers have done everything possible to destroy a Russian fundamental science to destroy the education system. After all, he Yasin, a minister of the economy in the Chernomyrdin government , and his team in the 90s had a terrible disintegration of the Russian economy , and created a situation where it became profitable to not get an education and to engage in research and trading Chinese consumer goods , cowards , tape recorders and socks. And now he says , let's all go to study in universities in the exact sciences .But now at the helm of government reformers are doing everything possible to close the system of " social elevator" to protect their children from competition from the "bottom" . Quality higher education is becoming a luxury that can afford very limited category of citizens - at least 25-30 % of Russians. Every year it becomes more expensive by 10-15% , and even 20% - that's Go, learn ...."SP": - According to Yassin , in the coming five years, nothing good citizens of Russia will not wait , so we need to " tighten their belts " and live " on the dry rations ." What is in store for us this economy ?- The first proposed to reduce spending on science , on housing, the economy , sports , culture , on the public sector . What is in store for all of us - is clear. But apparently , no one is going to limit the appetites of the oligarchs who again today , as in 2008 , with an outstretched hand to run " inefficient " state, and ask them to save the expense of taxpayers . Apparently , for this purpose , citizens must tighten their belts and save on their costs - to the ruling oligarchy to live well and hearty . And they will continue to " saw " state funds for Olympic construction , FIFA World Cup and in the construction of gas pipelines at inflated prices. Live on resource rents . I hope that President Putin will have the wisdom and the instinct of self-preservation policy to prevent this . And if people like Yevgeny Yasin , who once led the country to default , again begin to " advise " the government and impose their point of view , it would be the way into the abyss , in national economic and social catastrophe. In this case, Russia will face a major crisis first repetition of the sample of 2008, and then 1998. Only here and get rid of half-measures to maintain the status quo is no longer possible - a social contract with the Kremlin oligarchs have to terminate .Oleg GladunSource : svpressa.ru-------------------------------------------------- -------
Treatment of citizens of EkaterinburgPresident of the Russian Federation Dmitry MedvedevChairman of the State DumaRussian Federation SE NaryshkinChairman of the Federation CouncilLegislative Assembly of the Russian Federation VI MatvienkoRussian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
treatmentCitizens of the city of Yekaterinburg
We, the residents of Yekaterinburg , representatives of various political parties, social organizations , workers and employees , pensioners and young people can not agree with the course of political and economic reforms , which continues to hold the President and Government of the Russian Federation , as this course is aimed at liberalizing the economy and usurpation of power by a small circle of people leads to poverty, the decline of the economy and the country to collapse.All the years of liberal reforms , we observed a violation of constitutional rights of citizens, increase in crime against the state and the person infringing the interests of workers , falling living standards and growth of oligarchic capital. Today, we again hear about the growth of tariffs for gas and electricity , increasing the retirement age , limiting social guarantees and seeing an increase in consumer prices .Further it can not continue as we are not indifferent to our fate , the fate of our children and we will not remain indifferent to the destruction of our country for the sake of the predatory interests of capital .Relying on rights enshrined current Constitution of the Russian Federation (Article 3.7 , 15, 19 , 31, 32 , 42, 45 , 75), demand and call every sensible citizen to join these requirements to :
President of the Russian Federation has fully and throughout the country that the rights and freedoms guaranteed by the Constitution P F.
Heads of all state agencies and municipalities do not issue regulations that contradict the Constitution of the Russian Federation and federal laws .
Legislative support for Russian citizens exercise their constitutional rights to participate in government through elections and referendums.
Revise the legislation on elections to the State Duma , and other representative bodies, by moving from a proportional system to the majority , since the proportional system the rights of citizens in accordance with Art . 19 and 32 of the Constitution .
Restore the direct elections of governors , mayors and heads of regional and municipal governments , to stop any attempt to restrict the rights of citizens to elect leaders at all levels . Outlaw so-called city managers .
Ensure democracy and transparency of the electoral commissions at all levels with the mandatory inclusion they include representatives of public organizations.
Form the structure of the executive branch and the legislative bodies of continuous monitoring of its activities, go to the unicameral parliament , which should form the government .
Recognition as valid only those elections , which were attended by at least 51 % of voters.
Return the ballot count "against all" .
Presidential term leave under the current Constitution, adopted at a national discussion - four years.
Stop the persecution of citizens for political reasons and beliefs. Release all political prisoners .
Restore the constitutional rights of citizens to hold meetings, rallies , marches , to review those elected to public office with the loss of voter confidence .
The Russian government should bear the administrative, civil and criminal liability for the quality of life of the people , including - habitat , food, health care and education on the basis of Art . 19 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation .
Enter the election of judges at all levels of the people for a term of three years.
If the judges are not elected by the people , they are opting for the people.
Provide municipal government on the merits and strictly prevent any attempt to usurp power party and the administrative authorities.
Nationalize the financial and banking system with the provision of affordable credit for all subjects and all kinds of economic and business activities . Financial and banking system to control deputies.
Immediately stop sale of state property and balances to ensure that the revenues of state enterprises received the country's budget . Democratization of the country needs , not liberalization .
Immediately stop the practice of business support through the budget. Any business should be able to get a bank loan under general conditions. The country's budget should be used for the benefit of citizens, and not for the enrichment of individual businessmen.
Introduce a progressive tax scale , completely freeing citizens with incomes below 12,000 rubles. one person from income tax.
Review tax legislation towards protecting domestic production and living standards of citizens.
Immediately stop the practice of annual increase in gas tariffs , energy and unwind inflation in the interest of financial oligarchs , raw magnates and bureaucrats. Put tariff increases and inflation outlawed and considered a crime against the people and the state. Since it destroys a single economic environment and impoverishing the population.
Improve migration legislation in favor of the interests of the indigenous population . In Russia, enough of their labor to rebuild the country and its further development. Uncontrolled migration increases unemployment , creates the crime situation and costs Russia too expensive , as it pushes the technological and technological gap with developed countries and leads to social explosions .
Maternal and child welfare in order to improve the demographic situation in the country, providing a number of laws that provide favorable conditions for the birth and upbringing of children (housing, material support , childbirth and medical care , and social protection) . Set the size of the child allowance at the level of the minimum wage .
Ensure real freedom of citizens under the Constitution by providing airtime , newspaper strips and other media , financed by public funds.
Legislate and strictly apply confiscation of all property from convicted in corruption cases .
Introduce uniform for all (including officials and deputies of all levels ) pension system developed RA Varnavskaya and restore the pension level to the level of the Soviet pensioners. No genocide in the form of two pension systems !
Repay debts to Russian citizens for impaired investments, since 1991 .
Only forward movement in the direction of empowering people to directly participate in government can overcome the vices of the state, formed on the ruins of the Soviet Union , and to bring the country out of the protracted political and economic crisis . Only this direction and should recognize the true democratization.
Adopted unanimously at the enlarged meeting of the Committee for the Protection of the rights of owners of premises of apartment buildings in Yekaterinburg
27.04.2012 of Ekaterinburg
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