Russian offer to run with a noose around his neck and with fetters on

December 25, 2013Economic results of the year : not a disaster , and longing
RIA Novosti, Alexei KudenkoThe government is afraid of Activism , fearing the crisis of 1998 . ( The 1998 crisis is the result of government ) Central Bank behaves like a Prussian sergeant major , spinning all the nuts immediately . The banking system of ozhirela margin. ( Symptom domination of the financial oligarchy ) Moving economy nobody. Economists , summing up the year , convinced that by 2016 Russia no good waiting ( ruling elite is not recognized in his capacity ) .Moscow . December 25. FINMARKET.RU - among economists of different views and schools gathered at a round table to sum up the year . Agreed on one thing : the government is paralyzed by fear and unable to pull the economy out of the mire . To learn how to do it , failed to agree .

Some urged not afraid of the word "plan" and require state capitalism . Others continue to demand reform and climate change in the country. Ruslan Grinberg , Director of the Institute of Economics " To stop our economic dynamics led internal reasons . Fact that this president admitted , a great event . Still sounded that we are good , and a very slow recovery from the crisis is due to the environment . Told Now true. There are three reasons stopping development :Slowdown due to the end of megaprojects : Olympics , the Russian island , the Universiade ;The second reason - purely psychological. Our government was waiting for a jerk on the private sector . But in real life is of great importance bureaucratic oppression of the total business. ( This is the manifestation of state intervention in the economy , but the intervention from the perspective of big capital , which saddled the state , but Greenberg just fantasizing about the state) The first generation of Russian entrepreneurs earned money they want law and order, they are tired . This factor is very powerful, people do not want to think long-term because the state greatly interferes with their assets . When they come and say, " Your business has become so successful that begins to match our interests." Such doing business or otnimating ;The third is related to the fact that no one knows where the contribution of the private business funds . 20 years ago, was elected as the path to meet the needs of consumers first and foremost . Hence, a very large imports. As a result, the domestic business sees that all occupied. When it is known that his stools will be sold , it will deal with taxes , and firefighters and other controllers.

This year, the fast growing foreign direct investment. Looks like we're back in the Soviet era , when foreign investors agreed with the Politburo in clover skated here . And, with its possible to do what you want . No magic solution to accelerate economic growth in the coming year will be the same prozyabatelnaya band . ( There is a means to remove from the neck of the Russian industry usurer but Greenberg keeps silent about it ) Some say that in a bad mood , poor investment climate , the state intervenes where is not necessary. And I say that not intervene where necessary. No alternative to public-private partnerships . (All times reforms we only observe public-private partnership , where the costs are expanded to all citizens , and profit enters into private pockets ) During sluggish demand no alternative state capitalism . Around the world are buying up assets makes banks printing money . We can not wait for good climate , good administration , a fair trial. The State itself must go investor wherever goes private owner to private traders could buy these assets when it becomes profitable. ( State must make business profitable and pass into private hands. Greenberg and his liberal supporters all the time to convince people that is about to begin a miracle , after another privatization of the company, but as we see neither a miracle nor economic development is not.) is a cowardly government , as now, the wound injury in 1998 , afraid to spend 500 billion rubles, or more than anybody in the world is not interested in our development . During the crisis, the country won a major industrial economies - China and Germany . Innovation can only give a competitive advantage. "One essential causes strangulation of the economy and Greenberg did not name, having covered megaprojects , psychology and their lack of understanding of the principles of economic life. In fact , private capital will always find where to invest if you can extract a decent rate of return. Afraid to hurt the interests of their reference group .
 Natalia Akindinova , director of the HSE " The main reason for delay in the features of the economic model that has developed and successfully operated in the 2000s . As a result, developed rules of conduct of business, certain attitudes that now limit the opportunities for the development of other activities. Investments in we are focused on major state projects . Business is looking for money from the state, rather than the market expects . what happened slowdown was expected after the post-crisis recovery , when oil prices recovered to pre-crisis levels , and it became clear that the further they will not grow . at the current rate export growth and limited competitiveness of domestic producers can not provide a growth rate of 1.5-2 % over a year and a half or two years, we went to these rates ."The state has long struggled to him was not trust. Now, to regain the confidence , you have to pass the same path in the opposite direction ."In the last year or two manifested a new active state policy of the government and the Central Bank, aimed at macroeconomic stabilization : the introduction of a fiscal rule , the fight against inflation , institutional changes to restore order , for example, to get rid of inefficient banks , reform of APF ( will start next year a large reorganization of the sector ) . Power structures back the right to prosecute tax crimes , illegal migration is limited , the fight against offshore companies . These actions can have positive effects, as aimed at establishing more transparent rules of the game , can help relieve bottlenecks . But do not stimulate economic growth , rapidly withdraw from stagnation they can not, they are aimed at creating conditions for long-term economic growth. Confidence of economic agents to the policy of the state is not enough , and in these conditions, is taking steps that inhibit economic growth , at least in the short term . If things continue as they are now , the possibility of recovery occur no earlier than 2016-2017 years . The state has long struggled to it has not been confidence . Now, to regain the confidence , you have to pass the same path in the opposite direction every day to show that this pressure will not, law enforcement agencies will be in the law . Steps to follow with the same activity as before. I doubt relate to the ability to achieve long-term growth acceleration using active policy of public spending and soft budgetary policy. These measures are good, when the fall is opportunistic and short-term nature . We all agreed that the slowdown is fundamental , deep character . NWF - it's less than 3 trillion rubles . - And the ability to influence the additional costs of growth will be small. The increase in government spending by 1% of GDP will peak 0.7 pp real growth , the rest will go to inflation, and the money will go forever . "
 The state was privatized plutocracy to clip coupons for myself and today hosts the state there is not any desire to share power , and even more to restore confidence!
 Leonid Grigoriev , Chief Advisor to the Head of the Analytical Centre of the Government of the Russian Federation " The world is not in a very good position . We grow the level of developed countries. But the U.S. out of the crisis. We are the only country in the world where there are still wild sect ozhidateley end of U.S. imperialism which foretells the death on Monday of the dollar , and on Fridays - the euro. on Wednesday they bury America because of its huge debt . and he was the cheapest in their entire history : debt service , which is 110 % of GDP, they now spend 2 5 % of GDP and debt under Reagan for 50-60 % of GDP to pay 4.5% of GDP . our state does not want to increase spending , fears mistakes 90s . Trifle can not invest , they pressed . Old business can not invest . Foreigners say that you have got worse and worse , and worse than China . everything fell . Disasters not until the oil is at $ 100 per barrel. This is not a disaster , and longing . Russia begins to finally turn into oil-exporting countries of the Latin American wing . active industrial policy is needed , there is no dispute . Macroeconomics can provide stability , but will not give growth. but spending such huge amounts of money uncontrollably, projects arise out of nowhere , a serious public examination is not carried out , the Duma is working as a printer ..." Foreigners say that you have got worse and worse , and worse than China . Everything fell ."We must immediately put public control for large projects , to incite them to the press, immediately take control of law enforcement. " Controller shall have the power to control , and therefore any arguments about some abstract public to come along and supervise all at this concentration of power just funny.
Dmitry Belousov , Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting , " this year 's troubles began in the past when we braked with 5 % growth to 4% , 3 %, 2% and was quite natural 1%. We exhausted interpretation of what is happening . we were inside the traditional economic cycle : growing investment, including private traders began to increase wages, consumption. This crippled investment, and as a result we come to their growth at minus 0.6 % in the first three quarters. But we positive export reason almost stopped growing imports. When stagnation energy exports have continued to increase the export of machinery , metals and other non-commodity .

The main driver of growth - consumption. There are two troubles . High contribution of consumption to economic growth at 3-2 % achieved against a backdrop lending population relative debt to income ratio , the share of the loan portfolio of individuals in the loan portfolio of banks and many other indicators, we took to the pre-crisis level in 2007 .Despite the fact that the Central Bank is trying to restrain credit growth , nothing intelligent he can not . In the end we went for more than 50% probability that we will get a very big crisis on its rarity , coming from the consumer market, it usually comes with the corporate lending market .And secondly, on the back of higher wages in the public sector began to increase resentment workers in other sectors , for example, have already been unrest in the Kuzbass miners angered by the fact that they grow more slowly than wages . We 've taken up investment resources because of rising wages. ( Brad about high salaries have all tired . Salaries in Russia is low and a deterrent to the development of innovation. )There are two uncertainties that are shaping the future : either run investment growth , for example, as a result of softening of interest rate policy , the pressure reduction of tariffs of natural monopolies ( even though these monopolies cut investment) , while maintaining consumer model year - by two. Then there's the chance to get about 3 % GDP growth . Or with the investment will all still really do not understand why the private sector to invest ." We started fiscal consolidation began to hold tight monetary , interest rate policy in a situation where not only the economy is overheating , and even bask not start."The current crisis in 2012 it was launched as a result of closure of large investment projects "Gazprom". Gosstroyki ran simultaneously . Private investment is still growing. But in the middle of this year, we have cut and private investment .

The reason is that we have a full recovery has not happened : we have reached the pre-crisis level of output , slightly improved the situation with labor productivity , the level of investment is physically restored .But we are far below pre-crisis in terms of profitability in the manufacturing sector and significantly lower pay. Investment no equity or debt . ( Profitability in the manufacturing industry fell as profits grew monopolies and banks )The current crisis also contributed 20 percent of the external , and by 40 % - an objective insolvency and homespun stabilization policies . It is premature , we need development.The program does not perform an important element, and we have included brake instead of gas . Started fiscal consolidation began to hold tight monetary , interest rate policy in a situation where not only the economy is overheating , and even bask not start.As a result, businesses can not borrow . It makes no sense to give them . Banks pushed in household lending . There's a bubble. The Bank of Russia reacts to it with ease Prussian sergeant , while spinning all nuts immediately . We next year a very large fork in the forecasts from 0.8 % to 3 % GDP growth . This situation of uncertainty is very rare , and in itself marks a crisis . What is the difference - 3% or 1 % growth ? While fat bunny dry , thin dies . In regional budgets have a real crisis : with the redistribution , sequestration , with a shifting of obligations for the following years . State capitalism - a good thing , when goals and objectives are formed together. And not just - to build a road from point A to point B. An example of such construction - BAM . Or modern - GLONASS services on the market as there was or not. A GPS will soon be in every iron . The project should be done by the state, but to be business-oriented from the beginning. Capitalism does not need a state , and public- private " .State capitalism is good, when the state in the hands of the people and not crooks .Yevgeny Yasin , scientific director of the HSE " All are experiencing due to falling economic growth , but do not perceive in this catastrophe. Two years ago, I started from the fact that the growth we will be around 1.5-2 % who were predestined suppression of business activity. Take the high growth due to rising prices for oil and gas is meaningless : jerk , modernization, they do not provide . in 2014 will be approximately the same as that in this , do not expect any disasters . necessary to look at the more distant perspective.
The global crisis is just beginning to get to the developing countries , with growth falling in China. We are moving from an industrial economy that relied on cheap natural resources to innovation , which relies on expensive resources and breakthrough technologies . It can only do developed countries . We have to think in 5-10 years to lift the mood . When all the dead spirits , live boring, we will not go any . You should receive a feeling that you can invest , take risks, and develop it will not be unfruitful. Need competition , the incentive to improve efficiency. Now the banking system in a relaxed state , with such huge margin, that I wonder how it all moves from laziness. A banking system should start the real economy. Still in the market economy , we use no more than a third. We can not move unless there is serious reform - not economic, but political, in the field of law. The first example of mood enhancement served our president - freed Khodorkovsky . "Architect of the current crisis , which foresaw today's low growth , and you can not listen. Mr. platitudes itself never changes .
Finmarket

   Summarizing it can be stated that only Dmitry Belousov said something sensible and then muddled form.Reasons for the oppressed of the Russian economy as follows:1. Usurpation of power in the state and a narrow circle of plutocracy oligarchy that , in violation of the Russian Constitution barred people from government through elections and referendum.Hence :a. Falsification of elections ; ( Caught in the power of the state is considered as a private shop for personal enrichment. Legislative base is completely ignored. Therefore, a public-private partnership leads only to plunder the state) .b . Expensive loans and high inflation ( monopoly in the banking sector );in . Low wages do not create the necessary level of demand; ( Low wages are the result of accretion of capital and the state , when the state stands completely on the side of the capitalist. Salaries mitigated by migrants , providing high profit employers in their areas , but destroy the entire economy ) .in . Monopoly in the energy and Railways , permanent increase in tariffs , enriches and enhances plutocracy production costs and , as a consequence, leads to the impoverishment of the population .