Salaries will sacrificeFound growth reserves are translated into a reduction of social programs29.04.2015, | Peter OrehinThe
Russian leadership believes that the growth of wages in the country in
recent years consistently exceeded productivity growth, which has led to
an imbalance in the economy. The problem is that the diagnosis is wrong, and hence the treatment will not help. Most likely, all will be reduced to limit the growth of salaries in the public sector.Putin
admitted that the implementation of "the May decrees" may be postponed,
although he insists on their final implementation. "All the same, these goals should be achieved - a little earlier, a
little later, but still needs to be done," - said the head of state.It should be noted that this assumption is in line with recent "salary" statements by the President. He has repeatedly spoken out in the spirit that the growth of salaries
(ie their rise for state employees is a key point of decrees) growth of
labor productivity, which is a negative factor for the economy.
On the last Monday in St. Petersburg meeting of the lawmakers Vladimir Putin said earlier that the government considered it a priority to increase the salaries. "Still, it eventually led to a certain imbalance in the economy, which is that labor productivity have lagged behind the growth of salaries, which always leads to distortions," - he said.In a similar vein, he expressed and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. "A problem that is common to all sectors of the economy - is unreasonably high, we can say the critical level of costs, including due to the growth of wages, which have not been matched by an increase in productivity," - he said, speaking at a recent board of Ministry of Economic Development .Such statements can be regarded as a signal to business: "the government will close your eyes if you do not raise salaries, but under the condition that the investment will grow." But at the same time because of the demographic factor (reduction of the population of working age), competition for labor will only increase, even though the recession or stagnation. It will encourage companies to raise wages, regardless of the will of the government."The state has very limited palette of measures of influence on wages", - says in the Ministry of Labour.The only sector for which the state has a direct impact, - a budget. Actually, it and touch "May decrees" of the president. The first step is to limit the rate of increase of salaries has already been made here. Ministry of Finance of pushing through the government decision on a "temporary" indexation of wages and social payments pertaining to the federal budget, not on the level of inflation (according to the results in 2014, it was 11.4%), and 5.5%. There is no doubt that the regions, which is full of financial problems will not index their payments higher than the federal center.Recently, it also became known that the Finance Ministry proposes to streamline the public sector. He believes that there is over-employment and the very low productivity. This proposal was sharply negative reaction of the social block government. Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets sotsialke advised the Ministry of Finance to look for reserves replenish the state treasury in the financial sector."I think that today our problems lie more than it is in the financial and economic sphere. Today, there is a question about the outflow of capital, which is forecast for this year of $ 110 billion - more than all spending on health care in the Russian Federation. Next year it is planned reduction (outflow), but insignificant. Today, therefore, we expect financial and economic bloc of effective measures to generate additional revenue in our state, "- she said.According to Olga Golodets, "those targets that we have set for ourselves in all aspects of social policy (health care, education, pensions), we do not intend to update. This is a good guide, and we intend to achieve them. "
If we return to the problem of correlation of growth rates of wages and labor productivity, the "engine" of this thesis are the still the same Ministry of Finance and the former head of Alexei Kudrin. At a recent "straight line" with the president of the former finance minister, referring to the current crisis, he said he warned, "will outstrip the increase in wages of labor."Finance Minister Anton Siluanov to held in mid-April, the board of the department noted that the share of wages has increased from 47.4% of GDP in 2008 to 52% of GDP in 2014. Wage growth was faster productivity growth that ate profit enterprises.But these statements, to put it mildly, not quite correct. No catastrophic imbalance in the Russian economy does not exist. Back in 2009, deputy director of the Center for Labor Studies Rostislav Kapelyushnikov proved that the widespread idea of the outperformance of labor costs in relation to the dynamics of labor productivity is a "statistical illusion." The source of this illusion is the misuse of official data on real wages.For short periods of time one or the other indicator (wage growth, labor productivity growth) could go to White Castle, but the overall pattern of their movement in 1997 was quite similar.Last year, he released a second job (apparently, for those who do not understand the first time). "The present analysis confirms the findings of our previous study. The conventional idea of the faster growth of wages relative to productivity growth has little to do with the realities of modern Russian economy. There is no fixed ratio is not seen, the cycles of relative cheaper labor alternated with cycles of its relative appreciation "- he said.The "prevailing one must recognize the downward trend of unit labor costs" and "in the industry, it has been expressed much more than in the whole economy."It is likely that these variations are related to external market conditions for commodities, when they are getting more expensive, the cost of labor goes down when growing - up. This year (despite the decline in oil prices) because of the recession, devaluation, inflation, and salary costs of sanctions prosyadut very important (the forecast Economic Development, the decline in real wages of 9.6%, nominal wages will grow by only 4.5 %), and the balance will be displaced again toward performance.In 2011-2012, expenditures of enterprises in the formal labor were (in relative terms) at the lowest level since 1997. Thus, according to estimates by Rostislav Kapelyushnikov from each ruble of value added in the industry, for the payment of official salary in these years it took a little more than 20 kopecks., And for the payment of official salaries with social taxes - a little more than 25 kopecks."Never before have Russian industrial enterprises were not in this respect in such a favorable position for yourself" - sums up Rostislav Kapelyushnikov.The increase in labor costs in the past year is considered nothing more than local variations, which said the expert. Make far-reaching conclusions based on these data, it is impossible.But most likely, the president was able to verify the validity of "catastrophic" ratings. The meaning of this smart lobbying may be to achieve the Ministry of Finance a local problem - reducing the federal budget expenditures on health, education and social programs.Considering that the social unit has lost almost all of the key financial battle (just the other day the Prime Minister decided to maintain the storage element in the pension system, which is opposed by sotsblok), as well as the president's words about "a little earlier, a little later," it is likely that in this case the Ministry of Finance will win. So far, however, according to a source "Gazety.Ru" in the government, the finance ministry proposal on the optimization of the public sector were discussed.
On the last Monday in St. Petersburg meeting of the lawmakers Vladimir Putin said earlier that the government considered it a priority to increase the salaries. "Still, it eventually led to a certain imbalance in the economy, which is that labor productivity have lagged behind the growth of salaries, which always leads to distortions," - he said.In a similar vein, he expressed and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. "A problem that is common to all sectors of the economy - is unreasonably high, we can say the critical level of costs, including due to the growth of wages, which have not been matched by an increase in productivity," - he said, speaking at a recent board of Ministry of Economic Development .Such statements can be regarded as a signal to business: "the government will close your eyes if you do not raise salaries, but under the condition that the investment will grow." But at the same time because of the demographic factor (reduction of the population of working age), competition for labor will only increase, even though the recession or stagnation. It will encourage companies to raise wages, regardless of the will of the government."The state has very limited palette of measures of influence on wages", - says in the Ministry of Labour.The only sector for which the state has a direct impact, - a budget. Actually, it and touch "May decrees" of the president. The first step is to limit the rate of increase of salaries has already been made here. Ministry of Finance of pushing through the government decision on a "temporary" indexation of wages and social payments pertaining to the federal budget, not on the level of inflation (according to the results in 2014, it was 11.4%), and 5.5%. There is no doubt that the regions, which is full of financial problems will not index their payments higher than the federal center.Recently, it also became known that the Finance Ministry proposes to streamline the public sector. He believes that there is over-employment and the very low productivity. This proposal was sharply negative reaction of the social block government. Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets sotsialke advised the Ministry of Finance to look for reserves replenish the state treasury in the financial sector."I think that today our problems lie more than it is in the financial and economic sphere. Today, there is a question about the outflow of capital, which is forecast for this year of $ 110 billion - more than all spending on health care in the Russian Federation. Next year it is planned reduction (outflow), but insignificant. Today, therefore, we expect financial and economic bloc of effective measures to generate additional revenue in our state, "- she said.According to Olga Golodets, "those targets that we have set for ourselves in all aspects of social policy (health care, education, pensions), we do not intend to update. This is a good guide, and we intend to achieve them. "
If we return to the problem of correlation of growth rates of wages and labor productivity, the "engine" of this thesis are the still the same Ministry of Finance and the former head of Alexei Kudrin. At a recent "straight line" with the president of the former finance minister, referring to the current crisis, he said he warned, "will outstrip the increase in wages of labor."Finance Minister Anton Siluanov to held in mid-April, the board of the department noted that the share of wages has increased from 47.4% of GDP in 2008 to 52% of GDP in 2014. Wage growth was faster productivity growth that ate profit enterprises.But these statements, to put it mildly, not quite correct. No catastrophic imbalance in the Russian economy does not exist. Back in 2009, deputy director of the Center for Labor Studies Rostislav Kapelyushnikov proved that the widespread idea of the outperformance of labor costs in relation to the dynamics of labor productivity is a "statistical illusion." The source of this illusion is the misuse of official data on real wages.For short periods of time one or the other indicator (wage growth, labor productivity growth) could go to White Castle, but the overall pattern of their movement in 1997 was quite similar.Last year, he released a second job (apparently, for those who do not understand the first time). "The present analysis confirms the findings of our previous study. The conventional idea of the faster growth of wages relative to productivity growth has little to do with the realities of modern Russian economy. There is no fixed ratio is not seen, the cycles of relative cheaper labor alternated with cycles of its relative appreciation "- he said.The "prevailing one must recognize the downward trend of unit labor costs" and "in the industry, it has been expressed much more than in the whole economy."It is likely that these variations are related to external market conditions for commodities, when they are getting more expensive, the cost of labor goes down when growing - up. This year (despite the decline in oil prices) because of the recession, devaluation, inflation, and salary costs of sanctions prosyadut very important (the forecast Economic Development, the decline in real wages of 9.6%, nominal wages will grow by only 4.5 %), and the balance will be displaced again toward performance.In 2011-2012, expenditures of enterprises in the formal labor were (in relative terms) at the lowest level since 1997. Thus, according to estimates by Rostislav Kapelyushnikov from each ruble of value added in the industry, for the payment of official salary in these years it took a little more than 20 kopecks., And for the payment of official salaries with social taxes - a little more than 25 kopecks."Never before have Russian industrial enterprises were not in this respect in such a favorable position for yourself" - sums up Rostislav Kapelyushnikov.The increase in labor costs in the past year is considered nothing more than local variations, which said the expert. Make far-reaching conclusions based on these data, it is impossible.But most likely, the president was able to verify the validity of "catastrophic" ratings. The meaning of this smart lobbying may be to achieve the Ministry of Finance a local problem - reducing the federal budget expenditures on health, education and social programs.Considering that the social unit has lost almost all of the key financial battle (just the other day the Prime Minister decided to maintain the storage element in the pension system, which is opposed by sotsblok), as well as the president's words about "a little earlier, a little later," it is likely that in this case the Ministry of Finance will win. So far, however, according to a source "Gazety.Ru" in the government, the finance ministry proposal on the optimization of the public sector were discussed.
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