Conquering inflation

Ministry of Economic Development: inflation in 2015 will be more than 5.5%

Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev believes that inflation is a high probability may exceed the official forecast for 2015, which now stands at 5.5%.

At the same time, he believes that inflation next year will be lower than the increase in prices in the current year.

"I believe that inflation in 2015 will be lower than this year. Because this year - a combination of a very large number of factors: the powerful influence of the transfer effect of weakening of the ruble, the sanctions regime, a movement in food prices. I think that next year the total value factors will not be so hard, "- said the Minister.

"The risk that we shall arrive in 5.5%, quite high, but I think that the speaker is still down-" - said Ulyukayev.


As reported, the official inflation forecast for 2014 is 7.5% and for 2015 - 5.5%.

Source: omoskva.ru

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Actual Archive

  Invincible and uncontrollable inflation

  "I think that every employee of the Central Bank understands that the maintenance of low inflation is absolutely essential to a successful economy, and we will do our best to provide it," - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

After the price increase in January-February crossed the bar at 4.1%, Alexei Kudrin admitted that to keep inflation within the budgetary framework will not succeed.

"Today, - says Elena Lashkina in" Rossiyskaya Gazeta "- the cabinet to hold an urgent attempt to find an answer to the questions almost every Russian: why prices are rising in the country? Runaway inflation in a few months of this year has managed to spoil not only positive picture economic development of the country, but, judging by the strong commitment of Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, a career to some officials of his office. "

Here are some important steps to (Prime Minister threatened with dismissal individual officials) can bring this uncontrollable inflation and invincible. And at a recent meeting of the government it was only about fighting inflation and how on this front scored every member of the cabinet. On the need for a more serious fight against rising prices of consumer goods in the last week, said Vladimir Putin - he pointed out that the Government is unable to cope with the performance by the same developed measures to contain inflation. Each year, we learn about the grandiose plans of the government to reduce inflation, which it has set itself. But at the end of the year, we again find that the established framework and failed to squeeze despite obedient Statistics. Apparently, is no exception and the current year.

You can certainly do so, as advised by satirist Victor Koklyushkin: "In their calculations, we always (since 1917) are wrong ... And personally Fradkov I would advise not to get nervous because he and so the kind of person forgotten keys and standing in front of a closed door. He would be useful to do some exercise. And if the president we skier, then came to the premiere international drafts. In conclusion, I suggest take the word "inflation" indecent and in his speech no longer use. "

That's just, unfortunately, withdrawal from the vocabulary word "inflation" does not eliminate the inflation itself. Therefore, even many times I try to draw the attention of visitors to the site on the discussion that took place around the inflation rate, and maybe someone tired, but what is written about inflation Elena Shishkunova in the newspaper "Izvestia", should be noted. "Inflation, - tells us Shishkunova - this year will exceed the planned level. Prices in Russia are growing because people do not believe in stability and big spenders."

That is why our prices are rising and the ruble depreciates. And we naively thought that this is the result of government policy and the Ministry of Finance, they are doing on behalf of certain of the business community and the bureaucracy. As you can see, today, due to the lack of scientific political economy concepts dominate such concepts as much confidence and so on. D.

Even more incredible understanding of economic laws shows readers "Newspapers" Nicholas Vardul: "The government is going to manifest a miracle to raise economic growth, lower inflation and execute national projects. Miracle that solve these problems at the same time, even theoretically impossible." As you can see, Nicholas Vardul is also an expert knowledge of economic theories.

He was echoed by Maxim Sokolov in the newspaper "Izvestia": "Justice, however, requires the recognition that the last set Mikhail Fradkov was not the best. Grasp after the President to demand from Alexei Kudrin and Gref check digit inflation - and no more ppm, Prime came into conflict with their own wishes about the same in order to pick up the pace of economic growth, reduce the tax burden. And also realize extensive national projects. If charging AL Kudrin only thing he knows, ie the fight against inflation by the full pumping money out of the economy, then what does the national projects, growth and tax cuts? "

Nicholas Vardul and Maxim Sokolov "firmly" learned, probably due to the "good" teachers that economic growth is possible only in conditions of inflation and confidently flaunt it. But if they are a bit to reflect on how the inflation of the direct producer, then it could be seen that inflation does not only contribute to economic growth in Russia, but also inhibits it.

Inflationary processes developed under the pressure of two factors - it is not related to going to the non-production sphere, the cash infusion from the government, and the rise in commodity prices of so-called natural monopolies. In this and in the other case involved an official. In the first case, it is the government, the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank employees, and in the second, officials of various levels of government involved in the Tariff Commission, and taking the decision to raise those or other payment. From this it follows that the development of inflation is beneficial to the state and the owners of the monopolies. After all, who urges on these processes, and that they are beneficial.

This phenomenon does not belong to the action, which increases the competitiveness of our economy, as all manufacturers grow production costs, and the lion's share of the profits into the pockets of monopolists. On this occasion, not even worth spreading.

We now turn to the state and see what the state receives from the depreciation of the ruble? Firstly, we must not forget that the state is involved in the existing monopolies and why the officials involved in the division of the profits of the monopolies. Secondly, as a result of devaluation of the ruble in the state, a so-called inflationary boost that officials may order at its sole discretion, including spend it to consolidate its power. The budget surplus is presented by them as an achievement, as a result of strong economic performance, without understanding, and thereby there is currently an excess of money. Due to the development of production, due to the growth in labor productivity, or by bleeding of our economy. Inflationary boost formed due to the fact that the budget approved by the itemized payments in the form of a flat fee, and taxes collected as a percentage of turnover and profit, and because of the time lag, between the moment and throw the money until the price equalization.

To put this in a tangible product, population, resulting in the loss of purchasing power of pensions, allowances, stipends, salaries will be able to purchase only part of the goods that it consumes up to it, the other part was taken over by the state, and it can spend it as desired.

In addition to the official in the field of economic relations, we have representatives of big business, which specializes in trading of raw materials on international markets or products of primary processing business oriented to the domestic market, small and medium business and hired workers. Of these, the agents of production, benefit from inflation receive state and big business, selling on world markets. Commodity monopolies benefit from devaluation of the ruble, as obtained for the same amount of products sold on the world market, more rubles, which they are paid, in the country, with equipment suppliers and workers at the old prices. The main benefit of these companies comes from the constant gap between wages and inflation. And the state will receive an additional profit by cutting part of the super-profits of commodity tycoons. That's all, who benefits from inflation.

So where is the economy arising from inflation, about which so much has been written. Inflation, which would produce the oligarchs and bureaucrats excessive profits, does not contribute to the economic development of our country, which is so "baked" Kudrin, Gref, and their ilk.

Now focus on how inflation affects those who was not involved in power, to the higher bureaucracy and commodities trading - for workers and entrepreneurs. Is inflation developing the economy in this part?

Not to mention the fact that inflation reduces the standard of living of the majority of the population, it is also detrimental effect on the development of the economy as a whole. As a result of the fall in real purchasing power of the population shrinking market for items of mass consumption, there is an illusion of overproduction of goods and services, which forces manufacturers to curtail or suspend production. And although the cost of hired labor and falls, the entrepreneur loses more than wins, because he is important, not only the rate of profit, but also the weight. It is interesting to have a 5% from 1000, 10% of one hundred, for 50 rubles more than 10 second, no less pernicious consequence of inflation - a rise in the cost of money, credits, which naturally hinders the possibility of developing small and medium-sized businesses, as it is not in any case, you can make a profit, making it possible to pay the interest and inflation. Not develop not only business loans, but not consumer lending, mortgages, as the salary lags behind inflation. Thirdly, under the conditions of an unwinding of inflation entrepreneurs refuse to invest in the long payback periods, which hinders the development of re-production and productivity. Fourth, a steady decline in the cost of labor, that is, real wages in manufacturing, hinders technological development, which is the core competitiveness of any economy. Why should the owner of the plant will implement the mechanization of production or use of industrial robots, where he can always find in the labor market, and cheap enough skilled workers?

This policy of the government, which holds her in an alliance with the oligarchs, aimed at unwinding of inflation and increasing income of the oligarchs, leading the country to a standstill, to the degradation and economic backwardness, and not to economic prosperity, as it is trying to convince us different publicists.

Luckily there are journalists and those who honestly speaks about inflation, as Eugene Gontmaher who openly wrote that inflation - is primarily a tax on the poor, and thus the victory over it should not happen in the economic sphere, and political.

"Inflation - the worst social disease - wrote Gontmaher. Because those 10.9 percent inflation, according to official statistics, last year for the poor of our fellow citizens have grown to much higher levels. According to our calculations, for their last year's inflation rate was at least 15 percent. first of all, because the poor acquire those products, which in the first place and rising prices ... Inflation further increased the gulf that exists in Russia between rich and poor. But reducing this difference, reducing the number of people living below the poverty line, announced one of the priorities of the government's social policy. Therefore, it can be argued that the fight against inflation - is not so much an economic problem as the political. "

You can add only that this political problem can be solved only by the citizens themselves, not relying on the government. Given also the fact that big business does not sleep. Natural monopolies again demanded myself gain. And bargaining natural monopolies, which began with the officials about the tariff increase, can succeed. Yesterday the head of the Federal Tariff Service Novikov said that by June, the ultimate level of tariffs in respect of "Gazprom", RAO "UES" and "Russian Railways" will be updated. This is not the first high-ranking official statement about the possibility of tariff revision. The other day, did not rule out the Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade Belousov.

So all the talk about the fight against inflation is likely to remain so, and talk.

Vitaly Gluhov

    16.03.2006, the

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03.03.2009

Annual inflation in the United States fell to zero

  Consumer prices in the United States in the last 12 months (from January 2008 to January 2009) have not changed, according to Bloomberg, citing data from the United States Department of Labor. Zero inflation rate for the year is the lowest since 1955.

  Dvorkovich again raised its forecast for inflation

    Inflation in Russia in 2009 could reach 13 to 14 percent. This was stated by Russian presidential aide Arkady Dvorkovich, RIA Novosti reported. "13-14 percent - it is a forecast of Economic Development. This is very likely figure, but there are risks that may be higher. 15 percent may also be," - said the presidential aide.

  According to Dvorkovich, in the coming weeks, inflation will be higher than the same period last year. This is due to the depreciation of the ruble against the major currencies. At the same time, according to the assistant to the president, in 2009, consumer price inflation is not likely to be higher than last year. In 2008, the inflation rate was 13.3 percent.

Since the beginning of the year to 16 February, consumer prices in Russia increased by 3.2 per cent. Since the beginning of February 2009, inflation was 0.8 percent, and for the week of 10 to 16 February consumer price inflation reached 0.3 percent. February inflation of 2007 was 1.2 percent, and in January and the first half of February - 3.1 percent.

Lenta.ru



16.05.2011 15:28:51

Stepashin: rise in prices this year will break for a forward-looking framework in 7.5%

Authorities promised slowdown in inflation this year could not have taken place - the head of the Audit Chamber Sergei Stepashin warned about exceeding the planned target of 7.5%. He noted that the May 3, inflation since the beginning of the year was 4.3%, and by the end of the month, it "may be higher than in April."

Exceed the planned growth in prices, he said, can help to uncompetitive pricing of many types of goods and services to the largest Russian companies, as well as monetary factors.

The head of the joint venture said that the money supply in Russia in April of this year increased by more than 26% compared to April last year. Retained a high level of consolidated debt: in the first quarter, it exceeded 504 billion dollars and almost equal to the volume of international reserves.

Excluding the National Welfare Fund and the Reserve Fund international reserves, according to Stepashin, 118 billion (almost a quarter) below the consolidated foreign debt of the Russian Federation, cites "Nezavisimaya Gazeta".

Meanwhile, in the Budget Act 2011 laid down the inflation rate of 6%. Deputy Finance Minister Anton Siluanov in the State Duma on May 13 said that this figure will be revised upwards - to 6.5-7%. However, Stepashin casts doubt on this forecast, assuming that the acceleration of inflation in the early months of 2011 did not allow her to keep. From the beginning, the growth of prices in Russia amounted to 4.3%.

Pessimistic and experts of the European Commission - they predict inflation in Russia this year at 9.4% and 8.2% - in 2012. Recall that in 2010 inflation in the country reached 8.8% in 2009 - 8.8%, in 2008 - 13.3%.

Inflation will come forward for the frame, I'm sure, and director of strategic analysis of the company Igor Nikolaev: "After the jump in gasoline prices, after the information about the next global growth in food prices that was evident - he explains. - Rising prices in Russia will be much higher than the assumptions who built power. during the year, the figure will be higher than 10%. But this level may not be definitive, given the pre-election period and the temptation to give away money. "