Despite the decline in living standards, the government is offered to raise utility tariffs higher than planned
The Government of the Russian Federation intends to increase the prices for utilities, electricity and gas in the period from 2017 to 2019 in accordance with the level of forecast inflation - by 4.9%, 4.4% and 4.1%. For most positions, this is significantly higher than previously laid down. At the same time for industry, tariff growth will be less rapid.
This follows from an analysis of the country's economic development scenario published by the Vedomosti newspaper for the remainder of the current year and the next three-year period presented by the Ministry of Economic Development to the government and the president.
Despite the worsening of living standards, the Ministry of Economy suggests speeding up the increase in tariffs for housing and communal services. In view of the negative financial and economic situation of most organizations in this sector, it is advisable to increase the tariffs for inflation, the agency explains.
Gas prices will increase in 2017 by 4.9%, in 2018 - by 4.4%, in 2019 - by 4.1%, whereas previously offered an increase of 3% each year. Heat in 2017 will rise in price by 4.9% instead of the previously expected 4.1%, in 2018 - 4.4% instead of 3.9%, in 2019 - 4.1% instead of 3.7%.
Almost all indicators of the forecast have worsened, the newspaper notes. So, the GDP decline this year, according to a new assessment of the Ministry of Economic Development, will be three times higher than expected initially: 0.6% versus 0.2%.
In the targeted version of the forecast, the Russian economy will reach a growth rate of at least the world average, labor productivity will grow by 5% by 2019, inflation will drop to 4% by 2018 and macroeconomic balance will be achieved.
To do this, it will be necessary to increase the investment costs of the state, including by temporarily limiting labor costs in both the budget and private sectors, curbing the growth of spending on consumption and reducing various types of costs for business.
The collapse of the standard of living will be twice as sharp as expected in April. The decline in real disposable income of the population will be 5.6%, repeating the last year's record. In spring, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade estimated the annual decline to be 2.8%, and at the end of last year promised slightly more than 1%.
Next year, according to the official version, impoverishment will stop - incomes will resume sluggish growth, by 0.5% (against 0.7% in the previous forecast), which will accelerate to 1% in 2018.
Salaries of state employees in the three-year period will not grow, only the maintenance of the reached level of salaries of teachers, doctors and scientists guaranteed by the 'May decrees' of the President of 2012 is planned. For other employees of the budgetary sphere, including civil servants, in 2017-2019, the forecast provides for a moratorium on the indexation of wages.
The assessments of the MED, as usual, are too optimistic, experts of the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) believe. According to their forecast, the decrease in real incomes of the population will continue for another 2.5 years - for a fall of 4.1% in 2016, in 2017 there will be a decline of 1.1%, in 2018 - 0.8%.
According to Rosstat, the fall in real incomes of the population is observed in Russia for 22 consecutive months, and the pace is accelerating.
According to the estimates of the HSE Development Center, during the crisis - since October 2014 - the real incomes of the population (which remain in their hands after compulsory payments) have declined by more than 20%.
By the end of 2016, GDP will exceed the level of 2008 by only 1.3% - a value comparable with the measurement error. Without reforms, the sources of growth are not visible, and 'just in time for the 2018 elections' the topic of the 'lost decade' may arise.
The Government of the Russian Federation intends to increase the prices for utilities, electricity and gas in the period from 2017 to 2019 in accordance with the level of forecast inflation - by 4.9%, 4.4% and 4.1%. For most positions, this is significantly higher than previously laid down. At the same time for industry, tariff growth will be less rapid.
This follows from an analysis of the country's economic development scenario published by the Vedomosti newspaper for the remainder of the current year and the next three-year period presented by the Ministry of Economic Development to the government and the president.
Despite the worsening of living standards, the Ministry of Economy suggests speeding up the increase in tariffs for housing and communal services. In view of the negative financial and economic situation of most organizations in this sector, it is advisable to increase the tariffs for inflation, the agency explains.
Gas prices will increase in 2017 by 4.9%, in 2018 - by 4.4%, in 2019 - by 4.1%, whereas previously offered an increase of 3% each year. Heat in 2017 will rise in price by 4.9% instead of the previously expected 4.1%, in 2018 - 4.4% instead of 3.9%, in 2019 - 4.1% instead of 3.7%.
Almost all indicators of the forecast have worsened, the newspaper notes. So, the GDP decline this year, according to a new assessment of the Ministry of Economic Development, will be three times higher than expected initially: 0.6% versus 0.2%.
In the targeted version of the forecast, the Russian economy will reach a growth rate of at least the world average, labor productivity will grow by 5% by 2019, inflation will drop to 4% by 2018 and macroeconomic balance will be achieved.
To do this, it will be necessary to increase the investment costs of the state, including by temporarily limiting labor costs in both the budget and private sectors, curbing the growth of spending on consumption and reducing various types of costs for business.
The collapse of the standard of living will be twice as sharp as expected in April. The decline in real disposable income of the population will be 5.6%, repeating the last year's record. In spring, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade estimated the annual decline to be 2.8%, and at the end of last year promised slightly more than 1%.
Next year, according to the official version, impoverishment will stop - incomes will resume sluggish growth, by 0.5% (against 0.7% in the previous forecast), which will accelerate to 1% in 2018.
Salaries of state employees in the three-year period will not grow, only the maintenance of the reached level of salaries of teachers, doctors and scientists guaranteed by the 'May decrees' of the President of 2012 is planned. For other employees of the budgetary sphere, including civil servants, in 2017-2019, the forecast provides for a moratorium on the indexation of wages.
The assessments of the MED, as usual, are too optimistic, experts of the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) believe. According to their forecast, the decrease in real incomes of the population will continue for another 2.5 years - for a fall of 4.1% in 2016, in 2017 there will be a decline of 1.1%, in 2018 - 0.8%.
According to Rosstat, the fall in real incomes of the population is observed in Russia for 22 consecutive months, and the pace is accelerating.
According to the estimates of the HSE Development Center, during the crisis - since October 2014 - the real incomes of the population (which remain in their hands after compulsory payments) have declined by more than 20%.
By the end of 2016, GDP will exceed the level of 2008 by only 1.3% - a value comparable with the measurement error. Without reforms, the sources of growth are not visible, and 'just in time for the 2018 elections' the topic of the 'lost decade' may arise.
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