The speech of the Chairman of the accounts chamber Tatyana Golikova plenary session of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on the question about the main directions of unified state monetary policy for 2017-2019
Dear Vyacheslav Viktorovich, esteemed deputies, good afternoon.
Consideration of the draft document, I would like traditionally to start with macroeconomic indicators. It should be noted the validity of the estimates by the Bank of Russia dynamics of main macroeconomic indicators in 2016.
Largely by the efforts of the Bank of Russia in the current year were achieved reducing inflation. As at 28 November 2016 compared to 2015 year, the inflation rate was 5 %. Let me remind you that in November of 2015 compared to December 2014, the inflation was 12.1 %. In December of this year, consumer price growth may accelerate somewhat seasonal, however, according to our estimates, annual inflation will not exceed 5.5 to 5.8 percent.
The Bank of Russia pursues a consistent policy of inflation targeting, declaring in the Main directions, the inflation level is 4% for a three-year period. The inflation target is consistent with the Government's forecast. Agreed it seems and the range in which projected GDP growth, a moderate resumption of which is expected in 2017.
However, I want to note that the assumptions on which is based the calculation of macroeconomic indicators of the Government and the Bank of Russia, differ.
In the guidelines provided by the preservation of relatively high real interest rates, including "to maintain stable the propensity of households to save," and also predicted a more moderate growth rate of loans to non-financial organizations and the population at three years compared to the rate that the Government expects.
The increase in the volume of loans to non-financial organizations and the population at the forecast of the Bank of Russia is from 4% to 6 %. According to the official estimates the volume of credits to the population will increase by 7.4 %, nonfinancial corporations 11.7 %.
In our opinion, this difference in approaches to the assessment of the level of savings and consumption points to the presence of risks in relation to projected Government growth in consumer demand and its contribution to economic growth.
The decline in consumer demand we are seeing for the second consecutive year. This year consumer spending the Government will be 4.6 % (10 months – 5.3 per cent), which is directly linked to a reduction in real cash incomes of the population, which by the end of 2016, the Government is projected at 5.6 percent, the fact 10 months to 5.3%. In the past year amid high inflation figures the fall in consumer demand looked quite critical. Indirectly this is evidenced by the increase in the number of low-income categories by 3 million in 2015 and for the first half of 2016 - 2.3 million Therefore, the control of inflation is a measure to maintain social stability.
We share the position of the Bank of Russia to keep the key interest rate above the rate of inflation as a tool to combat rising prices. However, we note a gradual decrease in the level of inflation expectations, observed in 2016, the economy should serve as a signal to a balanced reduction of the key rate.
The Bank of Russia in your document rightly notes that during the forecast period will remain structural constraints on economic growth.
In this regard, it is necessary to consider that the sources of inflationary pressures there may be: low efficiency of the economy, import dependency, underdevelopment of financial market, as well as disparities in regional development. Therefore, to reduce the inflation costs system required the efforts of economic regulators. In the absence of proper coherence moderately tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia conducted with the aim of reducing inflation may be sub-optimal from the point of view of neutralizing the inflationary risks.
Another subject to which I wish to draw Your attention to is the development and strengthening of the banking system.
To this end, in 2015, as you may remember, was carried out additional capitalization of systemically important banks.
As of October 1, 2016, the amount of funds received by banks in the form of Federal bonds, amounted to nearly 827 billion.
The measures definitely acted as an element of stabilization of the banking sector, but, unfortunately, capitalization does not reverse the negative trends in the development of banks that received support. In the 3rd quarter of 2016 from 32 decapitalization of banks the number of banks increased the volume of own funds decreased from 23 to 17.
In addition, despite the fact that all banks are capitalized by the adequacy of own funds, nearly 40% of the banks noted emerging in the 1st quarter of 2016, the downward trend of the specified standard.
At the reporting banks for the first 9 months of 2016 12 decapitalization of the banks generated a net loss in the cumulative amount of almost 70 billion rubles, and 8 decapitalization of banks have shown consistently unprofitable activities.
It was planned that the recapitalization of banks will provide support to the lending organizations the priority sectors of the economy. For banks approved a list of priority sectors and establishes the obligation to increase the credit portfolio of not less than 1% per month. However, as of October 1, 2016, the obligation was not performed on 4 banks.
Moreover, according to the reports, those banks that comply, do it formally. Our examination showed clear criteria for the use of funds is not established, and delivered to the banks terms are very General.
The main volume of allocated funds continue to be directed on replenishment of working capital (84.2 per cent), the volume of crediting of investment projects is 4.3 %. For comparison, on January 1, 2016 in the whole banking system loans and other placements with nonfinancial organisations for the term of more than 3 years, 51.3%.
In a branch cut on 1 October 2016 the main volume of loan funds (47,5%) was provided to capitalize the banks, manufacturing industries, 14 % is lending to construction companies.
Would like to see the Bank of Russia drew on this problem special attention.
I hope that we have expressed today, including in writing, comments from the Bank of Russia will take into account in its future work. Thank you.
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State support of the Russian banks which have been granted 827 billion rubles, was unable to reverse the negative trends in the banking sector - almost every other Bank-member of the program lost all the subsidies.
Of the 32 banks that received state capital infusion in the form of OFZ, at the end of the third quarter of 2016, only 17 were recorded, the actual increase of capital.
Dear Vyacheslav Viktorovich, esteemed deputies, good afternoon.
Consideration of the draft document, I would like traditionally to start with macroeconomic indicators. It should be noted the validity of the estimates by the Bank of Russia dynamics of main macroeconomic indicators in 2016.
Largely by the efforts of the Bank of Russia in the current year were achieved reducing inflation. As at 28 November 2016 compared to 2015 year, the inflation rate was 5 %. Let me remind you that in November of 2015 compared to December 2014, the inflation was 12.1 %. In December of this year, consumer price growth may accelerate somewhat seasonal, however, according to our estimates, annual inflation will not exceed 5.5 to 5.8 percent.
The Bank of Russia pursues a consistent policy of inflation targeting, declaring in the Main directions, the inflation level is 4% for a three-year period. The inflation target is consistent with the Government's forecast. Agreed it seems and the range in which projected GDP growth, a moderate resumption of which is expected in 2017.
However, I want to note that the assumptions on which is based the calculation of macroeconomic indicators of the Government and the Bank of Russia, differ.
In the guidelines provided by the preservation of relatively high real interest rates, including "to maintain stable the propensity of households to save," and also predicted a more moderate growth rate of loans to non-financial organizations and the population at three years compared to the rate that the Government expects.
The increase in the volume of loans to non-financial organizations and the population at the forecast of the Bank of Russia is from 4% to 6 %. According to the official estimates the volume of credits to the population will increase by 7.4 %, nonfinancial corporations 11.7 %.
In our opinion, this difference in approaches to the assessment of the level of savings and consumption points to the presence of risks in relation to projected Government growth in consumer demand and its contribution to economic growth.
The decline in consumer demand we are seeing for the second consecutive year. This year consumer spending the Government will be 4.6 % (10 months – 5.3 per cent), which is directly linked to a reduction in real cash incomes of the population, which by the end of 2016, the Government is projected at 5.6 percent, the fact 10 months to 5.3%. In the past year amid high inflation figures the fall in consumer demand looked quite critical. Indirectly this is evidenced by the increase in the number of low-income categories by 3 million in 2015 and for the first half of 2016 - 2.3 million Therefore, the control of inflation is a measure to maintain social stability.
We share the position of the Bank of Russia to keep the key interest rate above the rate of inflation as a tool to combat rising prices. However, we note a gradual decrease in the level of inflation expectations, observed in 2016, the economy should serve as a signal to a balanced reduction of the key rate.
The Bank of Russia in your document rightly notes that during the forecast period will remain structural constraints on economic growth.
In this regard, it is necessary to consider that the sources of inflationary pressures there may be: low efficiency of the economy, import dependency, underdevelopment of financial market, as well as disparities in regional development. Therefore, to reduce the inflation costs system required the efforts of economic regulators. In the absence of proper coherence moderately tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia conducted with the aim of reducing inflation may be sub-optimal from the point of view of neutralizing the inflationary risks.
Another subject to which I wish to draw Your attention to is the development and strengthening of the banking system.
To this end, in 2015, as you may remember, was carried out additional capitalization of systemically important banks.
As of October 1, 2016, the amount of funds received by banks in the form of Federal bonds, amounted to nearly 827 billion.
The measures definitely acted as an element of stabilization of the banking sector, but, unfortunately, capitalization does not reverse the negative trends in the development of banks that received support. In the 3rd quarter of 2016 from 32 decapitalization of banks the number of banks increased the volume of own funds decreased from 23 to 17.
In addition, despite the fact that all banks are capitalized by the adequacy of own funds, nearly 40% of the banks noted emerging in the 1st quarter of 2016, the downward trend of the specified standard.
At the reporting banks for the first 9 months of 2016 12 decapitalization of the banks generated a net loss in the cumulative amount of almost 70 billion rubles, and 8 decapitalization of banks have shown consistently unprofitable activities.
It was planned that the recapitalization of banks will provide support to the lending organizations the priority sectors of the economy. For banks approved a list of priority sectors and establishes the obligation to increase the credit portfolio of not less than 1% per month. However, as of October 1, 2016, the obligation was not performed on 4 banks.
Moreover, according to the reports, those banks that comply, do it formally. Our examination showed clear criteria for the use of funds is not established, and delivered to the banks terms are very General.
The main volume of allocated funds continue to be directed on replenishment of working capital (84.2 per cent), the volume of crediting of investment projects is 4.3 %. For comparison, on January 1, 2016 in the whole banking system loans and other placements with nonfinancial organisations for the term of more than 3 years, 51.3%.
In a branch cut on 1 October 2016 the main volume of loan funds (47,5%) was provided to capitalize the banks, manufacturing industries, 14 % is lending to construction companies.
Would like to see the Bank of Russia drew on this problem special attention.
I hope that we have expressed today, including in writing, comments from the Bank of Russia will take into account in its future work. Thank you.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
State support of the Russian banks which have been granted 827 billion rubles, was unable to reverse the negative trends in the banking sector - almost every other Bank-member of the program lost all the subsidies.
Of the 32 banks that received state capital infusion in the form of OFZ, at the end of the third quarter of 2016, only 17 were recorded, the actual increase of capital.
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