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Retirement age will fall into a demographic pit
Demographic problems of Russia can soon cause significant damage to the country. The so-called "demographic hole", which is a consequence of the low birth rate in 1990-ies, may cause raising the retirement age. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has repeatedly said that the "bar" need to be lifted to 63 years (men and women). The same idea was expressed by the head of Rosstat. It is sure that you need to follow the example of Kazakhstan, which has already gone to such measures.
Anna Kokoreva, Director of the analytical Department of Alpari explained Noteru.com that such a process is inevitable: "to Argue with Mr. Surinova difficult, it really is. The fact that the number of pensioners is constantly growing. Their number is increasing by an annual average of 400 thousand people.
According to the Ministry of labour, one in eight Russians over the age of 65, representing 13% of the total population. According to the international criteria, population is considered old if the proportion of people aged 65 and over exceeds 7%. Thus, the number of retirees increases, the burden on the budget. Despite the fact that the government promised economic growth and progress toward a 2025-th year, to feed their old country will not be able. From an economic point of view raising the retirement age will increase labor productivity and to restrain the growth of expenditure on pension payments".
The probability that the government can do all of this with time to approve. It is easy to guess that, for example, Kudrin, Siluanov will fully support the head of Rosstat. Of course, such initiatives there are opponents – the head of audit chamber Tatyana Golikova believes that the retirement age should not be considered from a purely fiscal point of view, and to consider indicators of quality of life. But, such as it is, will remain unheard.
An alternative to the proposal of the head of Rosstat is only here to make it more complicated, and the mechanisms in today's economy will not allow it. For example, you can increase the growth of payments to the Pension Fund. But given that Russia today is fighting monetary methods of inflation has a monetary nature, free money for similar tasks in the Finance Ministry, of course, will not. You can, however, involve such payments of employers and population, but is, in fact, the emergence of a new tax, which the government will hit, but a perfect result may not give.
Financial analyst Timur Nigmatullin from the group of companies "FINAM" said Noteru.com that the demographic situation that we have today in Russia, the government had little room to maneuver: "the Demographic situation in Russia continues to deteriorate economically active population, according to the forecasts of the MAYOR, will continue to decline to 2019 -th year will reach 71.5 million, which is almost 2% below the level of the 2015th. The transfers from the Federal budget to the pension Fund (the Pension Fund) will have an increasingly negative impact on state finances, even with the "freezing" of transfers in NPF (pension Fund). In the long term to solve the current problem it is possible only by gradually raising the retirement age to 65 years and in men and women. For most ordinary citizens with age of 40 years it will be quite good news, since the alternative process will be an inevitable increase in social security contributions, which they never see in the form of higher pensions from-for a difficult situation with a demography. Typically, the "window of opportunity" to increase taxes, contributions, retirement age and reforms, in General, appears immediately after the presidential election."
To understand when all this happens, you need to compare two things: first, the presidential election will be in 2018-the year, and second, analysts believe that the critical point is the acceptable ratio of the number of "working-age population – pensioners" will be exceeded in 2-3 years. The conclusion is that raising the retirement age will begin to occur in late 2018-th - the beginning of the 2019-th. But for most Russians this news will be hard to call it good. The average mortality rate among women – 76.5 years, while that for men was 65.6 years (data from 2013). Given that the initiative of the same Siluanov includes raising the retirement age to 63 years, and in the future and more, enjoy a well-deserved rest, the Russians will not last long.
Department of information
Retirement age will fall into a demographic pit
Demographic problems of Russia can soon cause significant damage to the country. The so-called "demographic hole", which is a consequence of the low birth rate in 1990-ies, may cause raising the retirement age. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has repeatedly said that the "bar" need to be lifted to 63 years (men and women). The same idea was expressed by the head of Rosstat. It is sure that you need to follow the example of Kazakhstan, which has already gone to such measures.
Anna Kokoreva, Director of the analytical Department of Alpari explained Noteru.com that such a process is inevitable: "to Argue with Mr. Surinova difficult, it really is. The fact that the number of pensioners is constantly growing. Their number is increasing by an annual average of 400 thousand people.
According to the Ministry of labour, one in eight Russians over the age of 65, representing 13% of the total population. According to the international criteria, population is considered old if the proportion of people aged 65 and over exceeds 7%. Thus, the number of retirees increases, the burden on the budget. Despite the fact that the government promised economic growth and progress toward a 2025-th year, to feed their old country will not be able. From an economic point of view raising the retirement age will increase labor productivity and to restrain the growth of expenditure on pension payments".
The probability that the government can do all of this with time to approve. It is easy to guess that, for example, Kudrin, Siluanov will fully support the head of Rosstat. Of course, such initiatives there are opponents – the head of audit chamber Tatyana Golikova believes that the retirement age should not be considered from a purely fiscal point of view, and to consider indicators of quality of life. But, such as it is, will remain unheard.
An alternative to the proposal of the head of Rosstat is only here to make it more complicated, and the mechanisms in today's economy will not allow it. For example, you can increase the growth of payments to the Pension Fund. But given that Russia today is fighting monetary methods of inflation has a monetary nature, free money for similar tasks in the Finance Ministry, of course, will not. You can, however, involve such payments of employers and population, but is, in fact, the emergence of a new tax, which the government will hit, but a perfect result may not give.
Financial analyst Timur Nigmatullin from the group of companies "FINAM" said Noteru.com that the demographic situation that we have today in Russia, the government had little room to maneuver: "the Demographic situation in Russia continues to deteriorate economically active population, according to the forecasts of the MAYOR, will continue to decline to 2019 -th year will reach 71.5 million, which is almost 2% below the level of the 2015th. The transfers from the Federal budget to the pension Fund (the Pension Fund) will have an increasingly negative impact on state finances, even with the "freezing" of transfers in NPF (pension Fund). In the long term to solve the current problem it is possible only by gradually raising the retirement age to 65 years and in men and women. For most ordinary citizens with age of 40 years it will be quite good news, since the alternative process will be an inevitable increase in social security contributions, which they never see in the form of higher pensions from-for a difficult situation with a demography. Typically, the "window of opportunity" to increase taxes, contributions, retirement age and reforms, in General, appears immediately after the presidential election."
To understand when all this happens, you need to compare two things: first, the presidential election will be in 2018-the year, and second, analysts believe that the critical point is the acceptable ratio of the number of "working-age population – pensioners" will be exceeded in 2-3 years. The conclusion is that raising the retirement age will begin to occur in late 2018-th - the beginning of the 2019-th. But for most Russians this news will be hard to call it good. The average mortality rate among women – 76.5 years, while that for men was 65.6 years (data from 2013). Given that the initiative of the same Siluanov includes raising the retirement age to 63 years, and in the future and more, enjoy a well-deserved rest, the Russians will not last long.
Department of information
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