The body of the enemy, and the specter of the Gulag: strange results of the Investment Forum
Russian Central Bank is fighting inflation, but only "prescribes aspirin to a cancer patient," on Thursday quipped former economy minister, the head of Sberbank German Gref said at an investment forum "Russia Calling". "The main body of our anti-inflationary economy - is FAS [Federal Antimonopoly Service] and Mr. Artemiev [her head]" - he dared to offend sitting next chapter of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. The reasons for the complex relations among them are many: in 2007, she changed into a chair Gref Minister of Economic Development and Trade, and now it is essential for the conditions under which the central bank provides financing to Sberbank (question significantly sharper because of Western sanctions).
On the whole, Gref was clearly set critical: called to deal with the disastrous inefficiency of government, including state-owned companies (perhaps forgetting for a moment that he runs one of them), berated federal programs, indignant import restrictions and dropped a couple of hot phrases caused laughter mixed with applause. "When I think that the import stops, I shudder. Okay, I'm ready to not have ... [the right word and was not].
But! I already can not live without the benefits of civilization, I can not stand the old Savings Bank in line to me there to serve Girl "and" You can not motivate people, as in the Soviet Union, the gulag. "
All this criticism for lack of novelty and the consequences can be safely put aside. However, by tuning into an argument with people from government, Gref enlightened X-rays of their usual official speeches, suddenly began to play fresh colors provocatively absurd.
The corpse of the enemy
Buddies Gref - Elvira Elvira, her successor (through one) in the Ministry of Economy, Alexei Ulyukayev, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov - came to explain to several hundred potential investors of the current economic policy of Russia. This task they coped fairly quickly, with rare unanimity voicing the general consensus: no decisive action, the anti-crisis measures and the introduction of new incentives the government has no plans. Only saving budget, but high interest rates and infrastructure mega-projects - that's our strategy for the difficult times.
Anton Siluanov called a great achievement of the government spending cuts budget by 1 trillion rubles. For this had to postpone part of defense spending and freeze public sector wages. The Minister did not say that, even with the adjustment of national defense is the only item in the budget, whose funding from year to year is not decreasing but increasing. A rejection of the indexation of salaries of state, in fact, is their decline due to inflation. But, according to Siluanova, it's even good, "No way is impossible to increase domestic demand." Less money in people - below inflation.
As proponents of this passive approach suddenly enrolled and Alexei Ulyukayev that six months ago claimed to mitigate fiscal rule and throw more money into the economy, and recently asked the President powers to influence the decisions of the Central Bank is too conservative. Now the Minister of Economic Development limited doubtful proverb: "If you long to sit on the bank of the river, you will see how your sails past the corpse of your enemy. If you long to pursue a consistent policy, inflation will fall and economic growth will accelerate. "And so no one was surprised such a sharp change of position, he disavowed any of your thesis statement that is still time to act has already been lost: "The title of the session, said: time key decisions. But in a sense, while key decisions is long gone. They should have been taken much earlier. "And if they are not accepted or accepted, but not the (fiscal rule saved, savings in 2015 decided to freeze interest rates on loans have increased three times), the Minister of Economy of the responsibility for what is happening already and can not be held.
CBA Nabiullina clearly sort through all the arguments in favor of the economy and tight monetary policy. No stimulation, relaxation, increasing spending is not able to help the Russian economy, because the recession is not cyclical and structural nature. This low productivity, poor roads and all that in a generic formulation of officials requires so-called "relieve bottlenecks" and "structural reforms." These words are repeated today and Uljukaev, and Silvanus. It turns out that the "structural reforms" as the government would not be responsible, because it requires a political decision at the highest level. And while they do not, and can not do anything.
At the highest level to this thesis are with undisguised irony. "There are speakers of our ministers, the chairman of the Central Bank - they will tell for sure about the cyclical nature of the economy, about the structural limitations, right? Well, I listen to it every week. But in fact, since a hundred percent, no one can say anything, "- said President Vladimir Putin, who came to the forum later.
Too complex issues
German Gref hardly planned to speak today with a revelatory speech. He had harvested presentation with excerpts from the Economic Forum in Sochi, with which he began. But could not resist and poked his colleague Elvira Nibiullinu pair unpleasant inconsistencies. It reinforced its policy of fixed rates that are exactly the same in other countries with high inflation and seek to reduce it. Gref from such countries recalled only impoverished African Uganda. While central banks in developed countries in the approximation of the crisis include the printing press and pull markets.
Elvira asked for protection from Anton Siluanova, referring to his words: "Inflation is always a monetary nature" and, therefore, it can be contained with the help of high interest rates. Gref again could not resist: "Of course, if you cancel the money, there will be no inflation." He recalled that the main causes of high inflation - it's not too much money in the economy and rising wages (what fighting Elvira and Silvanus), and high tariffs of natural monopolies and the price of food. Gref said that the government must not sit idly by and solve these two problems, "Do not hide behind someone and say the government has no place here. Space is more than enough! "
"As long as I can remember, Ignatiev [CBA head in the years 2002-2013, Sergei Ignatyev] always put the inflation target of 4.5%, always promahivayas 1.5 points - went into a rage head of Sberbank. - But, colleagues, and no one trusts these predictions. - And then he moved on to the memories threats: - Can the central bank to achieve its goals? Can. The price of this issue - in the first place to put all the banks at once, do not give anyone any liquidity. And we put all of our borrowers. "
It is self-interest Gref is understandable, but is notable for the finale of this tirade. Calling on the government to act, it gradually cooled down and waved. "You ask too difficult questions for this audience," - he turned to the listener who asked to explain non-monetary nature of inflation. And although in the hall of random people just did not have to argue with the arrogant sneer no one - if the audience is ready to swallow empty bureaucratic reports an excuse for inaction, it hardly would be offended if someone will say it out loud.
Ekaterina Aljab'eva
Source: slon.r
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comment
Results of their activities - "Low productivity, poor roads and inefficient state-owned companies" as they lead the arguments against the stimulation of development and more. Apparently, labor productivity is expected to grow by itself, as well as a good road.
Dispute Nabyullina and Gref about inflation shows elementary illiteracy dispute. They confuse inflation, resulting in rising prices and, with the rise in prices due to rising costs, in particular interest tariffs. Negros people, but not all people negros. Is the division of the Russian pie between two clans: the financial oligarchy (inflation) and raw magnates (rates), and no one thinks about the country and its people. The higher the country inflation, the larger the dead and actual premature and not only virtual.
Nabyullina worth to clarify the audience why at high interest rates, high inflation in the country, is the root of the problem.
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