Consumer prices spurred psychosis
Consumer psychosis spurred tsenyInflyatsiya in Russia stepped double-digit threshold. This is evidenced by recent data of Rosstat, according to which prices in December rose by 10.4%. However, this acceleration in inflation will not stop at the end of 2014 it will reach 11.5%. Such predictions voiced by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, not excluding that prices may be higher than anticipated and indicators.
Speaking at a meeting of the Federation Council, Anton Siluanov confirmed that inflation has already stepped psychological mark of 10%, will continue to move upward. "Unfortunately, this year we have rising inflation - quoted Minister TASS. - On the last day of the year, inflation was 10.4%. By year, most likely, it will be somewhere 11.5% can be slightly more ".
A similar position was expressed by the Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich country. In an interview on "Rossiya24" He noted that the increase in food prices next year will exceed 10%, and for certain categories of goods rise in price and may reach more than 20%. Arkady Dvorkovich admitted that this price increase is very unpleasant, and the government will closely monitor the situation in the food market, preventing unjustified rise in prices of goods.
Return to single-digit inflation next year is now unlikely. For 2015 and the Finance Ministry, and analysts are not the most positive forecasts. And the fault is not only the foreign exchange market and the difficult economic situation in the country. "For this year, inflation of 1.5-2% over the expected added consumer psychosis in December, thanks to which many stores even have canceled Christmas discounts and promotions. Goods and because so boldly from the shelves - explains economist Igor Berezin. - Consumers need to calm down and stop buying in stores everything, regardless of the price and the fundamental need for these products. "
According to Rosstat, in the last week of December, sugar went up by 7.5%, eggs - by 3.5%, beef - by 1.5%, pasta and tea - 2%, and buckwheat - by 3.4%. In addition, added costs cabbage (11%), tomatoes (7.8%) and orugtsy (7.4%). According to a senior analyst at Alpari Anna Bodrova, in fact, inflation has already reached 15%, and food - about 20%. Expert opinion on the condition of anonymity, confirmed by representatives of trading networks, according to which, the prices in their stores rose by more than 16.5%. In particular, it was stated in the report of one of the largest Russian retailers.
Igor Berezin suggests that at the end of 2014 the total consumer price inflation will be at the level of 11-11.5%. "Of the products price leader of the race, is likely to be buckwheat, which for the year rose by more than twice - he says. - Very strong prices for poultry - about 50% per year. Cheese rose by 30-40%. But the increase in gasoline prices in view of the fact that its price in December fell by 1-1.5%, most likely, will not exceed 10% for the year. "
It is noteworthy that this week in the Ministry of Industry announced the possibility to freeze food prices in an emergency. Go for such a serious measure the government can, if the cost of socially significant products will grow by more than 30%. In the list of controlled fall bread, eggs, milk, sour cream, sunflower oil and other essential goods.
Meanwhile, according to economists, to apply extreme measures in practice, the government will be difficult. "For the retail market and it will be a signal to the fact that the situation gets out of control," - said Anna Bodrov. According to analyst Mikhail Kuzmin Investkafe, freeze prices almost impossible. "Such a mechanism is difficult to implement, - he said. - In addition, it will hit the business itself, which may simply reduce the volume of purchases, which will lead to shortages of individual commodity groups. "
If now, for example, to freeze prices for buckwheat at the level of 60-80 rubles per kilogram, it would be a serious obstacle to further reduce the price of cereals. Igor Berezin, similar to the situation with a threefold increase in the price of buckwheat in 2010. "Then their prices, no one is frozen and just have growth in supply from producers of the product, - he said. - Already in 2011 the price of buckwheat fell again and remained consistently low until the autumn of 2014 ".
In the coming year, with inflation at 10-15%, and the growth of nominal income by 7-9% per year, real incomes fall by at least 3-5%. This will reduce the demand and sales, as well as production, which will only worsen the economic situation in the country totaled market analysts.
Margarita Rebrovo
Source: dengi.76.ru
topical Archive
Traditions and syndromes.
November gave Russian citizens regular price increases and headlines blossomed messages: "The rise in prices - Christmas tradition" - writes "Moskovskaya Pravda". "At the beginning of next year is expected another traditional increase in tariffs for housing and communal services and transport, which will lead to a significant increase in prices."
As you can see, our rulers, and their serving printing, do not even want to explain to citizens causes a rise in prices and the rising cost of living. They came up with a universal formula - tradition.
How is it that we so quickly formed such harmful for the people of tradition? They also prefer not to talk.
Essentially, during the reign of Stalin tradition periodically reduce prices for consumer goods, for some reason, did not survive, but the increase in prices, devaluation of the ruble, the decline in real wages - "awesome" way to fix. Although the decline in prices during the reign of Stalin and can, in accordance with the concept of tradition, it would be called a tradition. After all, tradition - that's what passed from one generation to another, which is inherited from previous generations. And in this case, we can only talk about the frequency and persistence of price increases and an increase in tariffs, as newly minted Democrats and marketers have not yet how to sit in power, there was no change of generations to talk about tradition.
But we have a strange way to fix not only harmful traditions as journalists write, but there were painful syndromes. According to Dmitry Butrin in the newspaper "Kommersant": "Plans for the Ministry of Finance has corrected" December syndrome. "
"Inflation in Russia in December 2006 will be higher than expected. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that yesterday, it was already planned 9%. The remaining three days of the New Year sales may violate the government's plans to keep inflation in the corridor 8.5-9%.
On New Year's surge in inflation, said yesterday at the last meeting in 2006, the Government Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin. According to him, the inflation rate in December 2006 will be significantly higher than in recent months. The minister described the situation "syndrome of December."
Alexei Kudrin, as is clear from his statement, said that the nation is in a morbid state, as a syndrome - a combination of symptoms characteristic of a disease, and so he and all sorts of peculiar syndrome, which lead, in his opinion, to inflation. It turns out, not the Ministry of Finance and the Cabinet of Ministers, its policies, pushing inflation, and various syndromes society.
Alexei Kudrin is trying to convince us that we are to blame in all that happens, and inflation and rising prices, and he and the government, white and fluffy.
But in the eyes of the people, and it puts more accurate diagnoses than individual policies, various diseases struck by the government itself. It is manifested in her various syndromes, such as embezzlement, high inflation, an excessive amount of bureaucracy, illegally acquired property, the desire to strangle the freedom and rights of the people.
It seems that you must not treat the people and the authorities. And the bad habits of power, and its individual representatives need not present, as tradition, and remove. And do not put the blame on the mirror ...
Ivan Tevrizsky
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