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вторник, 17 февраля 2015 г.

The policy of "junk" government

 Resignation of the government Medvedev
Recent events in the world and in Russia, directly or indirectly depend on the work of the Government under the leadership of Russia Dmitry Medvedev.
Russia on all counts is losing its way. In the world of Russia considered the aggressor and the main breeding ground for terror. Internal policy of the government Medvedev brought the country to default. Ruble collapsed, the economy is in a stupor, social policy is negative - a blow to the main one brick solid foundation of the country - health care. Health care reform is carried out in Russia, after which thousands of doctors will be unemployed and thousands of villages - no clinics and health care.

It is understandable, when the policy of the government depended on oil prices, the fall in oil prices also need somewhere to take funds for patching the budget? These funds can be taken to reduce social programs and increasing taxes and fees - that is, to put a financial blow, powerful and well-planned - for the common people of Russia.
In connection with this - the action of the Government of the Russian Federation under the leadership of D. Medvedev can be regarded as a diversion and sabotage.
Thus, Dmitry Medvedev should be removed from the leadership of the Government of the Russian Federation. His work over the last 10 years should be considered by a special commission of the State Duma. Proceedings of the investigation should be transferred to the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation.
expected result
The work of the Russian government should be directly controlled State Duma, which in turn elected by the people in a general election. That does not contradict the Constitution.

   Vladimir Filatov. This command will fill not only the "Putin regime", but the country.

Anti-crisis measure of the Central Bank of 16 December - a sharp increase in refinancing - said that sluggish currency crisis that began with us since late August, moved to the acute phase. Such a worsening were objective and subjective reasons. Objective reasons - is waiting reduction of foreign exchange earnings (ie currency supply in the market), due to the fall in oil prices and sanctions against our banks and corporations that were supposed to pay in 2014 on foreign loans another $ 33 billion by year's end . They are forced to look for currency in the domestic market, as they can not refinance abroad. It naturally stimulates additional demand for currency. Exporters in the context of weakening of the ruble also began to hold currency. All this plays against the ruble.

Still need to be taken into account that the first stages of the crisis last autumn, the Central Bank and the economic bloc of the government were interested in reducing the rate of the ruble, because it allows them to balance the budget (budget fulfill obligations) at the rate of 55 rubles. the dollar and the price of oil is not below $ 60 per barrel.

The subjective reasons should include vague policy of the Central Bank, as its leadership hoped that the floating exchange rate all very calm and expectations have changed in favor of the stabilization of the national currency. As it turned out, some exhortations recent weeks was not enough. Even after the sale of the Central Bank on Friday in the market $ 2.3 billion ruble continued to fall, indicating a loss of confidence in the previously announced measures of the Central Bank.

Anyway, the Central Bank of the situation failed. Anti-crisis measures of the Central Bank late. It was necessary in November to "break the trend," raising the discount rate, and enter the administrative tools that restrict access to foreign currency.

What will happen?

Thus, the rate for commercial banks is 17% + 1.75%. Thus, the ultimate recipients of bank loans will be able to get loans only at 20% or more. It threatens to freeze all economic activity. This rate can not be maintained for a long time - a maximum of 2-3 weeks. That is, we found ourselves in a situation where within the monetary model, which adhere to the Central Bank and the economic bloc of the government, the solution is not visible.

Let me remind you that the currency crisis we're not the first one. In fact, we are now paying the price for the "errors of childhood," when in 1992 began to reform the introduction of convertibility of the national currency in a non-competitive economy, tied with monetary emission receipt of currency in the country rather than the development of its own production, ie, of the country's commodity mass. Since then, the main macroeconomic indicators for the government remain the ruble, the oil price and foreign exchange earnings. The pace of development of the national economy are considered as derivatives of these indicators, and not as the main priority of the whole economic policy. And it is well known that in those countries that have made a real breakthrough and modernization produced impressive economic results (Japan, South Korea, China), currency liberalization was based on restructuring and improving the competitiveness of the economy, ie, at the final stage of structural reforms. We have the opposite. As a result, no upgrades, no competitiveness. Turned out as in the famous joke - there have cheap, but it is impossible to go. Government's economic policy is reduced to divination oil prices and the inability to provide justifications acceptable rates of economic development.

The situation once again showed that in the current economic policy of the normal dynamic development of the national economy can not, in principle, no matter how much more right calls for innovation and modernization nor proclaimed government. We were at the point of bifurcation: a reversal takes place on the actual development of the economy and is likely to change in the economic bloc of the government, or the command as many political scientists have long predicted, will fill not only the "Putin regime", but the country, to the delight of our 'sparring partners "in the world.

Vladimir Filatov - PhD, Senior Fellow, Institute of Economics, RAS, especially for a REGNUM


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