Prices are rising out of season. Inflation accelerates rates and vegetablesThe main contribution to the July inflation rates have made housing
The July inflation was the highest since the beginning of the year. The main reason for rising prices are tariffs indexation which this year was moved from January 1 to July 1, and higher prices of vegetables. Despite the season, the cost of fruit and vegetables has risen due to the weakening of the ruble.In July, inflation accelerated to 1.2% compared with June, the Federal State Statistics Service said Friday. This is the highest figure since the beginning of the year: in June, prices grew by 0.9% in May - 0.5% in April - 0.3%, in March - 0.6% in February - 0.4% in January - 0.5%.Since the beginning of the year, inflation was 4.5% in July last year - 5.6%.
The main contribution to the July inflation rates have, indexing which this year was moved from January 1 to July 1, and the rise in prices for fruit and vegetables. Tariffs for housing and communal services, on average rose by 5.7% compared with June. Most grew up fee gas supply - by 13.2% for electricity - by 5.9%, the cold and hot water - by 6.1% and 5.9% respectively.Prices for fruits and vegetables grown on average by 3.5%. Carrots increased by 14.6%, and garlic - 13.5%, onion - by 11.6%, potatoes - by 8.4%, white cabbage - by 8.1%, beet - by 6.7%. In this case, lemons fell by 10.2%, banana - by 8.4%, oranges and grapes - by 3.4% and 2.9% respectively. Sugar was higher by 2.7%, meat and poultry - by 1.2%, bread and bakery products - by 0.9%. Alcoholic beverages rose by 2.2%. Overall, food prices grew by 1.1%, of non-food items have increased the price of all tobacco products - by 1.5%.The cost of fruits and vegetables affected ruble weakening in May and June. "Until we have gathered our crops, vegetables and fruits are imported, which immediately affect the price" - the economist said, "Troika Dialog" Anton Struchenevsky. During May - June dollar rose to 32.94 from 29.37 rubles, euro - up 41.32 to 38.82 rubles.In addition, the base effect fades. "In 2010 there was a drought, the products were very expensive in the first half of 2011, but in July 2011, when the shelves of the new crop came, they began to fall in price. Thus, all the first half of 2012, we in the base of comparison had high food prices - by the end of July, the technical effect is largely exhausted "- explains the chief economist for Russia," VTB Capital "Maxim Oreshkin.According to the official forecast, the inflation for the year will be 5-6%, but most economists believe that prices will be higher."At the end of December inflation at 7.1%, due to the fact that the delayed effect on the growth rates will continue for another two months, the harvest will be worse than last year, world food prices will rise," - lists the chief economist of FK "Opening" Vladimir Tikhomirov. According to the expert, a positive role could be played by a serious strengthening of the ruble, but this probably will not happen. "Our forecast - 7.3% on problems with the world and the Russian harvest. In addition, the contribution to inflation will increase consumer demand by the rapid growth in wages (including due to increases in the public sector) and active credit expansion of the banking sector, and changing seasonality of government spending, which had been very active in the first half, "- says Oreshkin ."The goal of 6% is achievable" - objection Struchenevsky.According to experts, there is a serious slowdown in the rate of inflation(In the last week is a decrease in the price of fruit and vegetables), the effect of devaluation is gradually eroding. "Harvest will be lower than last year, but higher domestic demand. Effect of small monetary component, the money supply decreases. This creates the conditions for inflation to fit into the official forecast, "- says Struchenevsky.Source
The July inflation was the highest since the beginning of the year. The main reason for rising prices are tariffs indexation which this year was moved from January 1 to July 1, and higher prices of vegetables. Despite the season, the cost of fruit and vegetables has risen due to the weakening of the ruble.In July, inflation accelerated to 1.2% compared with June, the Federal State Statistics Service said Friday. This is the highest figure since the beginning of the year: in June, prices grew by 0.9% in May - 0.5% in April - 0.3%, in March - 0.6% in February - 0.4% in January - 0.5%.Since the beginning of the year, inflation was 4.5% in July last year - 5.6%.
The main contribution to the July inflation rates have, indexing which this year was moved from January 1 to July 1, and the rise in prices for fruit and vegetables. Tariffs for housing and communal services, on average rose by 5.7% compared with June. Most grew up fee gas supply - by 13.2% for electricity - by 5.9%, the cold and hot water - by 6.1% and 5.9% respectively.Prices for fruits and vegetables grown on average by 3.5%. Carrots increased by 14.6%, and garlic - 13.5%, onion - by 11.6%, potatoes - by 8.4%, white cabbage - by 8.1%, beet - by 6.7%. In this case, lemons fell by 10.2%, banana - by 8.4%, oranges and grapes - by 3.4% and 2.9% respectively. Sugar was higher by 2.7%, meat and poultry - by 1.2%, bread and bakery products - by 0.9%. Alcoholic beverages rose by 2.2%. Overall, food prices grew by 1.1%, of non-food items have increased the price of all tobacco products - by 1.5%.The cost of fruits and vegetables affected ruble weakening in May and June. "Until we have gathered our crops, vegetables and fruits are imported, which immediately affect the price" - the economist said, "Troika Dialog" Anton Struchenevsky. During May - June dollar rose to 32.94 from 29.37 rubles, euro - up 41.32 to 38.82 rubles.In addition, the base effect fades. "In 2010 there was a drought, the products were very expensive in the first half of 2011, but in July 2011, when the shelves of the new crop came, they began to fall in price. Thus, all the first half of 2012, we in the base of comparison had high food prices - by the end of July, the technical effect is largely exhausted "- explains the chief economist for Russia," VTB Capital "Maxim Oreshkin.According to the official forecast, the inflation for the year will be 5-6%, but most economists believe that prices will be higher."At the end of December inflation at 7.1%, due to the fact that the delayed effect on the growth rates will continue for another two months, the harvest will be worse than last year, world food prices will rise," - lists the chief economist of FK "Opening" Vladimir Tikhomirov. According to the expert, a positive role could be played by a serious strengthening of the ruble, but this probably will not happen. "Our forecast - 7.3% on problems with the world and the Russian harvest. In addition, the contribution to inflation will increase consumer demand by the rapid growth in wages (including due to increases in the public sector) and active credit expansion of the banking sector, and changing seasonality of government spending, which had been very active in the first half, "- says Oreshkin ."The goal of 6% is achievable" - objection Struchenevsky.According to experts, there is a serious slowdown in the rate of inflation(In the last week is a decrease in the price of fruit and vegetables), the effect of devaluation is gradually eroding. "Harvest will be lower than last year, but higher domestic demand. Effect of small monetary component, the money supply decreases. This creates the conditions for inflation to fit into the official forecast, "- says Struchenevsky.Source
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