Inflation in Russia in 2012 to seven percentMinistry of Economic Development will update its annual growth forecast consumer prices to this levelDeputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia Andrei Klepach said Wednesday that inflation in the country 2012 to seven percent.Thus, the Ministry will soon adjust its annual forecast for consumer price inflation to that level from five to six per cent, which was predicted earlier.In addition, according to Klepach, the trade surplus of Russia in June was 11.9 billion dollars. But last year, the figure was 18.3 billion dollars, up 35%, according to RIA Novosti.
----------------------------------------Invincible and uncontrolled inflation
"I think everyone in the CB understands that keeping inflation low is absolutely essential to a successful economy, and we will do everything to ensure this," - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
After the rise in prices in January and February overcame the bar of 4.1%, Kudrin admitted that keeping inflation within the budgetary framework will not succeed."Today, - says Elena Lashkina in" Rossiyskaya Gazeta "- Cabinet to hold an urgent attempt to find an answer to the questions almost every Russian, why prices are rising in the country? Irrepressible inflation for several months of the year has already not only spoil the positive picture economic development, but also, according to the determined mood of Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, a career to some officials of his office. "That's up to any serious steps (prime minister threatened with dismissal individual officials) can bring this uncontrollable inflation and invincible. And at a recent meeting of the government it was only about fighting inflation and how on this front can distinguish each member of the cabinet. The need for a more serious struggle with rising prices for consumer goods in the last week, said Vladimir Putin - he pointed out that the Government is unable to cope with the performance measures developed by the same constraints on inflation. Each year, we learn about the grand plans of the government to reduce inflation, which it set itself. But at the end of the year we again learn that in-bounds and did not manage to squeeze in, in spite of a compliant statistics. Appears to be no exception and the current year.You can certainly do so, as advised by satirist Victor Koklyushkin: "In our calculations we have always (since 1917) are wrong ... Personally Fradkov I would advise not to get nervous, because he and so the kind of person who forgets the keys and standing in front of a closed door. He would be useful to do sports. And if the president have alpine skiing, the prime minister would come up stokletochnye checkers. In conclusion, would take the word "inflation" indecent and in his speech no longer use. "Only, unfortunately, withdrawal from the vocabulary word "inflation" will not eliminate the inflation itself. Which is why I try to draw the attention of visitors to the discussion that took place around the inflation rate, and perhaps someone sick, but what is written about inflation Elena Shishkunova in the newspaper "Izvestia", should be noted. "Inflation, - tells us Shishkunova - this year will exceed the target level. Prices in Russia are growing because people do not believe in the stability and big spenders."Here is why the prices are rising and the ruble devalued. We naively thought that this is the result of government policies and the Finance Ministry, they are doing in the interest of certain business community and the bureaucracy. As you can see, today, in the absence of scientific concepts of political economy, dominated concepts such as: a lot, trust, etc.Even more incredible understanding of economic laws shows readers "Newspapers" Nicholas Vardul: "The government is going to manifest a miracle to raise economic growth, lower inflation and execute national projects. Miracle that solve these problems simultaneously is even theoretically possible." As you can see, Nicholas Vardul is also an expert knowledge of economic theories.He was echoed by Maxim Sokolov in the newspaper "Izvestia": "Justice, however, requires recognition that the last visit Mikhail Fradkov was not the best. Hand after the President require Alexei Kudrin and Gref inflation target figures - and no more ppm, Prime contradicted their own previous wishes about to pick up the pace of economic growth, reduce the tax burden. And also realize large national projects. If charging Kudrin only thing he knows, that is, fighting inflation through the full pumping money out of the economy, then what does the national projects, growth and tax cuts? "Nicholas Vardul and Maxim Sokolov "firmly" learned, probably due to "good" teachers that economic growth is possible only in conditions of inflation and confidently flaunt it. But if they are a bit to reflect on how the inflation of the immediate producer, it could very well see that inflation does not only contribute to economic growth in Russia, but also inhibits it.Inflationary pressures develop under the pressure of two factors - it is not related to going to the non-production sector, cash infusion from the government, and higher prices for the goods so-called natural monopolies. In this and in the other case involved official. In the first case it is the government, the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank officials, and in the second, the officials of different levels of government involved in the Tariff Commission, and taking the decision to raise certain tariffs. From this it follows that the development of inflation benefits the state and the owners of the monopolies. After all, who urges on these processes, and that they are profitable.This phenomenon does not belong to the actions that increase the competitiveness of our economy, as all manufacturers grow production costs, and the lion's share of the profits into the pockets of monopolists. On this occasion, not even worth spreading.We now turn to the state and see what the state gets from the depreciation? First, we must not forget that the state involved in the current monopoly and why the officials involved in the division of profits of the monopolies. Second, the depreciation of the state, a so-called inflationary boost, which officials may order at its discretion, including and spend it to strengthen his power. Budget surplus is presented by them as an achievement, as a result of strong economic activity, without understanding, and thereby there is currently an excess of money. Due to the development of production, due to the growth of labor productivity, or by bleeding of our economy. Inflationary boost formed because the budgetary payments are approved article by article, in the form of a lump sum, and the taxes collected as a percentage of the profits and traffic, and because of the time gap between the moment and throw the money until the price equalization.To put this on a physical product, population, by reducing the purchasing power of pensions, scholarships, salaries will be able to purchase only part of the goods that it consumes up to it, the other part was taken over by the state, and can spend it as so desired.In addition to the official, in the sphere of economic relations, we have representatives of big business, which specializes in trading of raw materials in the international markets and products of primary processing, business oriented to the domestic market, small and medium business and employees. Of these we have the agents of production, benefit from inflation are the government and big business, trading on world markets. Commodity monopolies benefit from depreciation as receive for the same number of products sold on the world market, more rubles, which they pay, in the country, with suppliers and workers at the old prices. The main benefit of these companies is due to a constant backlog of wage inflation. And the state will receive an additional profit by cutting off part of the profits of commodity magnates. That's it, who benefits from inflation.So where is the economy arising from inflation, which is so much written about. Inflation, which would produce the oligarchs and bureaucrats excessive profits, does not contribute to the economic development of our country, which is so "baked" Kudrin, Gref, and the like.Let us look at how inflation affects those who are not privy to power, the higher bureaucracy and commodities trading - for workers and entrepreneurs. Whether inflation is developing the economy in this part?Not to mention the fact that inflation reduces the standard of living of the majority of the population, it is also detrimental effect on the development of the economy as a whole. As a result of the fall in real purchasing power of the population shrinking market for items of mass consumption, the illusion of overproduction of goods and services, which forces manufacturers to curtail or suspend production. And although the cost of hired labor and falls, the entrepreneur loses more than wins because he is important, not only the rate of profit, but the mass. He is interested to have 5% from 1000, than 10% of one hundred, for 50 rubles more than 10. Second, no less pernicious effect of inflation - is more expensive money, credits, which naturally inhibits the possibility of the development of small and medium businesses, as it does not in any case you can make a profit, which gives the ability to pay interest and inflation. Not develop not only business loans, but not crediting, mortgage, as the salary does not have time for inflation. Third, in escalating inflation entrepreneurs refuse to invest for the long payback periods, which hinders the development of manufacturing equipment and productivity. Fourth, a steady decline in the cost of labor, that is, real wages in manufacturing, hinders technological development, which is the basis of competitiveness of any economy. Why should the owner of the plant will introduce mechanization of production or use of industrial robots, he can always find in the labor market, and cheap enough skilled workers?This policy of the government, which holds her in league with the oligarchs, aimed at unwinding of inflation and increasing income oligarchs, leading the country to a standstill, the degradation and economic backwardness, and not to economic prosperity, as they try to convince us to different writers.Fortunately there are journalists and those who honestly speaks about inflation, as Evgeny Gontmakher who openly wrote that inflation - is primarily a tax on the poor, and thus the victory over it should not happen in the economic plane, while in political."Inflation - the worst social disease - wrote Gontmakher. Because those 10.9 percent inflation rate, according to the official statistics, the last year for the poor of our citizens have grown up to much higher levels. According to our calculations, for them last year inflation was at least 15 percent. First of all, because the poor get those products, which in the first place and rising prices ... Inflation has further increased the gulf that exists in Russia between the rich and poor. But reducing this difference, reducing the number of people living below the poverty line, announced one of the priorities of the social policies of the government. So we can say that the fight against inflation - is not so much an economic problem as political. "You can add only that this political problem can be solved only by the citizens themselves, not relying on the government. Taking into account the fact that big business will not wait. Natural monopolists again demanded a raise. And traded natural monopolies, which began with the officials about the tariff increase, can be successful. Yesterday the head of the Federal Service for Tariffs Novikov said that by June of ceiling tariffs for "Gazprom", RAO "UES of Russia" and "Russian Railways" will be specified. This is not the first high-ranking official statement on the possible revision of the tariffs. One of these days it does not rule out the Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade Belousov.So all the talk about the fight against inflation is likely to remain so, and talk.
Vitaly Glukhov
16/03/2006, the
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