News Newsland: Valentin Katasonov: economic results of Russia in 2014 godaOpisyvat economic results of the past year can be different words: currency crisis, the fall of the ruble, economic sanctions, to strengthen the capital flight from the country, coming over the line 10% inflation, lower revenues from oil exports, an unprecedented "mortality "of Russian banks, the threat of the federal budget deficit, a reversal of economic cooperation between Russia and the East, etc. This has already been said and written a lot.
From my point of view, it is unfair enough said and written about the fact that in 2014 the government made a financial unit is one of the biggest robberies of our people over the past two decades. Maybe larger robberies compared with the last were only actual confiscation of deposits in the Savings Bank of tens of millions of citizens Gaidar government more than twenty years ago (as a result of the mad acceleration of inflation). Or so-called "default" in 1998, triggered by the government Kiriyenko (three-fold drop in the ruble exchange rate).
Our central bank, according to the Constitution of the Russian Federation is obliged to ensure the stability of the national currency - the ruble. This is not just a beautiful phrase, an abstraction from the category of macroeconomics. This is the economic security of our country and the welfare of our citizens. Because of the special importance of the political, economic and social objectives, it is fixed in the Constitution of the Russian Federation. At the Bank of Russia are many tasks and functions (they are registered in the Federal Law on the Central Bank of the Russian Federation), but the above-mentioned problem - the main thing. The Bank of Russia in the past year not only coped with this task. There was a strong sense that he did everything he could to "shake" the ruble.
In 2014, as a result of a sharp drop in the ruble exchange rate and in a high dependence of the Russian market of consumer goods imports actually occurred partial confiscation of ruble deposits of citizens. Try to assess its extent. If we assume that the average value of the ruble deposits of individuals in the past in 2014 was equal to 13 trillion. rubles, and the ruble per year lost nearly 50% against the dollar, then we arrive at the following conclusion. Do people keep their savings on ruble deposits of Russian banks, was stolen 6.5 trillion. rubles. Devaluation of the ruble, made by our authorities, someone from currency speculators enriched billions (maybe not even rubles and dollars). But ordinary citizens were stolen 6.5 trillion. rubles. If you translate that amount in US dollars at the exchange rate of the end of the year (about 60 rubles to the dollar), we obtain a loss of more than $ 100 billion. Dollars. If recalculate this amount at the exchange rate of the last year (33 rubles per dollar), we get about 200 billion. Dollars.
Of course, for "thin" assessments should take into account the terms of ruble deposits and motion graphics money on deposit accounts. In order not to waste time on evaluation of these "subtleties" propose to take the average value. Obtain 150 billion. Dollars.
This, of course, not all. After all, the population there are always cash rubles in your pocket, purse or under the mattress. According to the Bank of Russia, cash money outside the banking sector on 1 January 2014 was equal to 6.985,6 billion. Rub., And December 1, 2014 - 6.920,0 billion. Rubles. Nominally, the ruble supply in less than a year remained almost unchanged, but in dollar terms was left only half. Holders rubles, which used them for current purchases and payments, impairment did not feel, but those who held rubles under the mattress, the loss actually suffered. If only ¼ of all available ruble mass was kept under mattresses. In this case, we have a real losses approaching 1 trillion rubles. Again, if you translate into dollar equivalent at the average rate of the last year, we get about 24 billion. Dollars.
By our very rough estimate, the population losses as a result of "experiments" Central Bank "floating ruble" cost to our citizens in an amount equal to 7.5 trillion. rub. The amount of the sum of the losses of those who held rubles in banks (6.5 trillion. Rub.), And the loss of those who held under the mattress rubles (about $ 1 trillion. Rub.). Loss denominated in rubles beginning 2014. In dollar terms the loss can be estimated at $ 150 bln. Dollars. + 24 billion. Dollars. = 174 bln. Dollars.
It would seem that the authorities had to show a sense of responsibility to their citizens. What happened, happened. The perpetrators brought to justice and to compensate the loss of the citizens. There are different options. For example, to index the banks' liabilities to its holders of deposit accounts with the ruble depreciation. This version has a serious drawback: once most banks will collapse, from our banking system will remain "horns and legs."
Another option provides for payment of losses to depositors of the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA). Alas, this option seems to be the most optimal, also does not work. As of December 1, 2014 Mandatory Deposit Insurance Fund (financial base DIA) has an amount equal to 88.5 billion. Rubles. As the saying goes, "the kids on molochishko." We can only state with its budget and extrabudgetary different and "off-balance sheet" funds. But our government has gone a different way. The energy of our State Duma was at the end of the outgoing year is not channeled into the mainstream of protecting the rights and interests of the "throw" the monetary authorities of citizens and the protection of the track of the same banks. December 19, the State Duma voted in favor of the law authorizing the release of the Ministry of Finance of Russia in the period from 31 December 2014 to 31 December 2019 federal loan bonds in the amount of the nominal value of 2 trillion rubles. December 25 the law was approved by the Federation Council on December 26 and signed by the President of Russia. Placement of securities already begun.
Of the funds raised $ 1 trillion. rubles will go to replenish the capital of Russian banks, most of which are already breathing its last. People's deputies said there were nice words about what this "infusion" will allow Russian banks to direct loans to the real economy, to engage in import substitution. "Cool story, but it is hard to believe." Why strain banks, if the ruble will weaken? Yes, today offshore game in conditions of economic sanctions become risky for Russian banks. Instead of investing in new lending Magnitogorsk and DnieproGES they will "invest" in the foreign exchange and speculate on it. 1000000000000 leave the water in the sand. It would be better that money went to compensate robbed in 2014 to depositors. However, this law does not provide.
Another trillion plan to "pour" in the capital DIA. But maybe this billion will be used to compensate depositors robbed? No way. DIA money paid to depositors only those banks that went bankrupt. A robed in 2014 as a result of the collapse of the ruble depositors under this category are not covered. Of course, they have a chance to get into this category in the current year, 2015, when the banks in which our bearings investors continue to keep the money, still burst. But then his consolation prize they will get very very impaired papers. However, even completely depreciated paper money still not enough at all.
Our humane authorities to somehow poslastit bitter pill that our citizens had to swallow in mid-December 2014, decided to increase the limit of bank deposits to be insured, with 700 thousand. To 1,400 thousand. Rubles. Noble, of course, but it is not correct to call the insurance limit increase, and its indexing. Would be better if our government decided on indexation of bank deposits, extending this indexing not only on new deposits, but also to those who are "burned" in the past year.
Above we talked only about the losses of individuals. Loss of our companies and companies in general do not give account. According to the Bank of Russia on December 1, 2014 the funds of legal entities (the bulk of them - enterprises and companies) banks (deposits and other types of accounts) totaled 21.6 trillion. rub. Of these foreign currency amounted to 8.5 trillion. rub., and denominated assets - 13.1 trillion. rub. As you can see, ruble funds of individuals were approximately equal ruble corporate funds. It turns out that if we apply the same method of calculating the damage it does to deposits of individuals, we get losses from legal entities collapse of the ruble, equal to the same 150 billion. Dollars. If you add up the loss of natural and legal persons, caused by the depreciation of the ruble accounts in banks, we get 300 billion. Dollars.
According to World Bank estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia in 2013 amounted to 2.097 billion nominal terms. Dollars. And in the calculation of purchasing power parity (PPP) GDP ruble is equal to 3.461 bln. Dollars. Apparently, the GDP growth in Russia in 2014 will be purely symbolic. Therefore, we can say that an impairment loss of ruble funds deposited with the Bank of Russia, as a result of depreciation are as follows: 14% in relation to GDP in nominal terms; almost 9% in relation to GDP calculated at PPP.
All manipulation of our government in the financial and banking sector does not inspire any optimism. Monetary and financial system is not viable, it is going through the agony. The measures taken by the Government and the Central Bank in the past 2014, especially at the end of the year, can be described as follows. Firstly, it was the last attempt for something to "grab" for "a favorite" under the guise of "verbal intervention" with not very human-friendly magic spells such as "repo", "liquidity" or "base rate".
Secondly, some of the measures resembled injection "analgesic", as the "anesthetic" were the money from the treasury of our currency (primarily for the purpose of so-called "currency interventions"). But, on the one hand, the injection action is limited in time. On the other hand, the supply of "anesthetic" begins to melt before our eyes. These are not very happy reflections lead to the conclusion that our monetary system more to keep on "painkillers" injections impossible, and opportunities anymore. It urgently needs to be treated, and may require surgical intervention.
Valentin Katasonov - Doctor of Economics, Professor, Chairman of the Russian Economic Society im.S.F.Sharapova