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понедельник, 26 января 2015 г.

The house burned down, and the cockroaches were

Herbs cockroaches - burned house
  Faced with a serious challenge in the form of falling oil prices, the authorities themselves with their own hands to destroy the last pin of the Russian economy - the strong ruble.
There can be a strong economy with a weak domestic currency. According to article 75 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation Part 2: "Protecting and ensuring the stability of the ruble - the main function of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which he performs independently of the other organs of state power."
Extremely harmful decision - to devalue the ruble - was made to immediately patch a hole in the budget and offset the shortfall in revenue from it. But the devaluation of the ruble is not only not remove the problem from the decline in oil prices, on the contrary, deal a devastating blow to the economy of Russia.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that the peaks of the impact on the economy and the weakening of the ruble from falling oil prices and the match will fall at the beginning of next year, which will lead to the collapse of the economy as a whole, GDP decrease by 7-10% in 2015.
Central Bank of the Russian Federation, with huge foreign exchange reserves could easily save the strong ruble. Instead, at a time when it was necessary to ensure the stability of the ruble, the regulator suddenly removes currency corridor and throws in elements of the ruble market.
Everybody thought that it was accumulating foreign exchange reserves to maintain a strong ruble, or - why? But at a time when foreign exchange reserves is really needed, they suddenly decided not to use. This suggests that foreign exchange reserves are created made for a different purpose. Maybe it's "trunk on the road?" We all remember how to have disappeared at the time the money CPSU.
To preserve the solid ruble Bank could take effective measures: first, require exporters to sell 100% of foreign exchange earnings, and secondly, to monitor the use of the title acquired at auction major parties currency. The application must be applied for the currency supply contract for import to the payment schedule, or a loan agreement with the terms of repayment of the loan in a foreign bank, or other document confirming the purpose of the acquisition currency. Control was enough to keep only for large quantities of currency.
In addition to these non-market measures, the Central Bank could simply sell the currency at a higher rate and buy it back at a low rate, doing so as a "bear" in the foreign exchange market. With the huge foreign exchange reserves, this terrible "bear" could ruin all "bull", "cocked at the same time a couple of pieces for dinner." If you sell high and buy low, you can make good money. On the stock exchange always wins the one who has more money.
Weakening of the ruble to fight currency speculators - it's like to burn his own house to combat cockroaches.
Foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank are about 400 billion. Dollars, at the rate of 50 rubles to the dollar is equal to 20 trillion rubles. That is, the amount of foreign exchange reserves exceed by more than 2 times the ruble monetary base is 8-9 trillion. rubles. Thus, theoretically, the Central Bank could collect all the rubles in Russia to the last penny, and adjust the ruble.
Instead - raising the refinancing rate to 17%, which will lead to higher interest rates on loans up to 25-30% for the real economy, stop acting enterprises, higher unemployment, lower income taxes in the budget, rising loan defaults. About any investment can not be considered.
At the same time, the Central Bank includes a printing press and starts handing out money left and right, at times, increasing volumes in repo transactions, allocates $ 1 trillion. Deposit insurance, banks pumping money in every way that will lead to a further depreciation of the ruble and hyperinflation. The monetary base increased from 12 to 19 December, from 8.4 to 9.2 trillion., That is 10.9% for the week.
Inconsistent, conflicting, inadequate actions of the authorities recently show that "at the helm" have neither a plan out of the situation. It is hoped that the "invisible hand of the market" itself fix everything, but for the normal operation of the economy in market conditions in the country must be an independent judiciary, protection of property rights and human rights, freedom of private enterprise, development of democratic institutions - none of this today in Russia.
Victor Motovilov
Source: echo.msk.ru  

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