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среда, 25 апреля 2012 г.

Disintegrate can not be upgraded

  The only way for the development of the country - full nationalization of natural resources. "The ideas of economists and political philosophers, they are right or not, is much more powerful than is commonly realized. In fact, hardly anything else the world is governed, "John Maynard Keynes
Recently, a very interesting trend can be traced. In a recent interview V.Surkova "Vedomosti", can clearly be seen that the biggest problem of modernization - the existing system of relations in the economy. But this system is the result of the privatization of the whole people of the Soviet inheritance, where the idea of ​​justice, as such, has replaced the idea of ​​a wild market, which includes two conditions: first - there is no justice and there can be no second - the market will put everything in place. Forms of production management, which were laid in the foundation of the Russian economy in the 90s, are incompatible with the idea of ​​national innovation-oriented development, which was confirmed by the Chairman of the Duma Committee on Economic Policy E.Fedorov. 1991-2010. The economic results of the "adoption of the American model of economic policy ... certainly entail a far more serious cultural loss is very small, purely theoretical or illusory absolute economic success," John Gray (John Grey), English philosopher, is completely filled in the early 90's upper floor of the Federal Property Agency - they are "appointed, who should be an oligarch." The reforms carried out in Russia under the leadership of 10,000 American notorious commodity dependence, which today is so much talk as a sign of weakness and passivity of the Russian political establishment was originally spelled out in terms of development of the country, Yeltsin's young reformers inscribed under the dictation of American curators - "Chicago boys" of advisers who sat in all ministries and departments.The very doctrine of the transformation of the Soviet economy to a market economy, Western-style utopia was a bluff, and some others. If you leave an assumption about the vile conspiracy (let's not overestimate the works of such "Russophiles" as Brzezinski - Empire collapse for internal reasons, not the outside), all the fundamental errors "liberal-capitalist reforms" due to the very philosophy of capitalism in Europe. If this review and the flow of resources, it becomes obvious that "capitalism is by no means could develop without obliging with the labor of others" (F.Brodel). And the West is actually created itself from the material of the colonies.
But the colony had been unable to pass through the formation of Western capitalism, because of their "stuff" went to the construction of the West, and in the very same colonies created a special formation of 'complementary economy' (S.Kara-Murza). Those who believe in the potential of following the Western path, you must specify where Russia podcherpnut "helpfully aid the labor of others" or refute the findings Braudel.
Economists 'liberal school' come from the mechanistic world view and the long eradicated in the enlightened mind of primitive Eurocentric myth according to which the West is a "universal law of development."
These concepts have become a kind of fundamentalism, and the Russian "neo-liberal social science." At the same time introduced by an uncritical attitude toward knowledge, no logic, cut off from real life, the radical idealism of spontaneous talks about the narrowness of thinking "young reformers" 90. There is another rationale for this "phenomenon of blocking of intelligence" - awareness of fall greedily coveted opportunity to the common ownership of it and grab a hefty pieces, was released in the minds of Russian neoliberals extremely dark and archaic force. Therefore, all but the money was "superfluous", including the population itself. All this gave rise to the comprador "semibankirschinu" directly control the country and its resources, "Yeltsin decade."
Thus, the transformation of a socialist to a capitalist system, passed by the very worst-case scenario, embodied in an ugly picture of all the shortcomings of the "collective unconscious" of capitalism. All that left critics and denied okarikaturivalos became conscious pseudo-norm, which still continue to invest. "Liberal individualism" with its Protestant roots and worship the "golden calf", a focus on "effective management" and the maximization of profit, considering the social structure as a boarder, is not "the only possible way of development" (which proves that even the Japanese model of management and the realities " Beijing Consensus ").
Application of this theory in Russia brought the country to the brink of destruction, and began to destroy the population itself. The Russian economy is initially prepared and written as monoekonomika.
The starting idea of ​​post-Soviet state policy was the idea of ​​a purely negative, where there was no place for the development of the original household and economic thought. There was no equipment in terms of strategic, national understanding of the processes.
For example, the Soviet system gave rise to the type of businesses that have been inextricably intertwined with the maintenance of essential living conditions of workers, their families and the general "city." These companies are not focused solely on profits, but bore and social functions, it became the center of living arrangement - a kindergarten, clinic, rest home, housing, sports center, etc. (Including heating "waste heat" from a number of industries).
It is this structure and are immediately eradicated at the request of Western experts. Characteristically, the Social Services businesses in Russia, OECD published a book by experts, where the authors acknowledge that they are aware of - the separation of production and social services will lead to severe suffering, but this required separation, based on the dogma of economic theory. Separately, it should be noted that, during the cruel experiment on the population of Russia, which became the neoliberal reform, received a large stock of new and largely unexpected knowledge in the field of economic theory, but this knowledge paid by the suffering of millions of people in Russia, virtually no research was put into circulation.
Differences between the Soviet way of management of today's so articulate carefully avoid. But the Soviet economic system, not having access to "the material of the colonies", in fact, showed a higher than capitalism, the possibility of development of productive forces, which is now a liberal economic science can not talk [1].
They are silent about the fact that Russia has no sources "by obliging the labor of others" and forced to go a different way than Western capitalism, and its path can not jump. Trying to uncritically copy the path of Western development has been a strategic mistake.

 
Strategic mistakes were made, and when you create a financial system
But ... economists in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, who objected to the approach taken, labeled as hidden Stalinists "A.Emsden," Reform the eyes of American and Russian scientists' first - the country's financial markets from the beginning has been unregulated, built as purely speculative. When the voucher privatization, it is the financial market became the mechanism of redistribution of property rights, and so remains. This is not a tool for raising capital for business development, and speculative (with rare exceptions).
The second - during the GKO pyramid market is fully opened to foreign speculators and money laundering. Then, in general, the export of capital has been allowed only under license from the Central Bank, but it made an exception for T-bills, and all who wish to take legal capital of the country, put it in T-bills, and then quietly evacuated. At the same time -
In a Ponzi scheme SCG foreign short-term infusion with 95 to 98 years, invested $ 1 earned about $ 20. Then the money went at the rate of six rubles to the dollar, warned last month by Chubais.
Then come back when the market crashed 10 times, and the ruble was devalued three times in two weeks. Capital, which they took two months "before" and then returned back to "after" defaults, in their purchasing power increased by 30 times - so cheaper Russian assets. This is the price of these speculative swings, a foreign financial capital begins to play against a particular country. So Soros could not afford to "charities" and is so fond of printing textbooks, teaching the "correct history". It is true, and everyone has their own story. This is speculative, and it was chaotic, and to this day.
Common shortcomings of liberal monetary approach lie in the postulates of the 'Washington consensus'. Our monetary system is built by the Central Bank so that the money in Russia do not appear under the weight of the extension of credit or a demand for them. The issue is solely rubles for the purchase of foreign currency (this is the third strategic error when creating a Russian finsistemy).

  
The outcome of today
95% of all major Russian property, and it is primarily industrial production and the banks are foreign owned. The situation has developed in such a way that any big businessman in Russia hides your property abroad, by spec
ki building of Russian statehood. The contribution of primary industries in Russia's GDP is 40%, and in some regions over and 90%. Minerals in the light of primary processing in Russia's exports is about 80%.

  
Raw-material economy. As the "Dutch disease" has become a "disservice"

  
No one will deny that because of "specific reforms", the main problem of the structure of the Russian economy was its strongest bias in favor of commodity exports. Let's see what they say about the existing economic schools.
Starting from the 70s to actively discuss the problem of the influence of commodity economy in economic development in different countries. At one time it was noticed that the pace of growth in countries rich in oil and gas, is lower than in countries where supplies of such resources are limited. GDP growth in 1965 and 1998, Venezuela, Iraq, Libya, Kuwait, Qatar, OPEC (in general) -1% -1% -2% -3% -6% -1.3% per year in the early 90s there were also works of the notorious Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner (curators of reforms in Russia), in which the abundance of natural resources came to be regarded as a "curse for economic development."
The authors considered only the indirect negative impact of factors on the growth of primary sector of the economy. These factors include: "Dutch disease", aimed at the behavior of rent-seeking, the inequality of income distribution, social conflicts, wars, etc.
Beyond the research were the factors that have a direct impact on the primary sector GDP growth: the deterioration of mining conditions at the time, low rate of technological progress, typical for this region, the instability of prices for minerals, etc.
For a traditional liberal ekonomotsentrizma excess raw materials becomes a "curse" for economic growth, and the theory prescribes two approaches "to fight against this evil," - "prevention" and "compensation".
. Prevention -
decrease in the proportion of the commodity sector in GDP due to the development of processing industries. This aspect is considered small enough, since the principle of liberal capitalism, dominated by the "here and now."
According to experts, if we now begin to rapidly set up high-tech industry, a significant fraction of GDP, they will be in 15 - 20 years (remember, as it was in the Soviet Union?). Apparently, because of this inherited high-tech industries (mechanical engineering, aircraft, etc.) were destroyed, and new for those 20 years and have not been created ...
But the emphasis on the development of commodity exports, and (in full accordance with the requirements of the school of liberal monetary economy) arising out of this -B. Compensation of factors affecting the growth: I. Economic factors ..."Dutch disease" - was named (W.Corden, J.Neary) after realizing the negative effects in the economy of the Netherlands relating to the discovery in the late 50's natural gas fields in the North Sea [2].
As a result, growth in exports of natural gas trade balance was strongly positive, increased foreign exchange inflows, which resulted in a significant rise in the national currency, the increase in domestic prices and reduce the competitiveness of Dutch producers, the increase in aggregate demand and imports, deterioration vneshneplatezhnogo balance, as well as changes in the price structure economy.
The growth of the exchange rate due to the increase in exports has a negative impact on other industries and the economy as a whole. As the prices of resources "are subject to significant fluctuations" (look at this statement below), the exchange rate also varies widely and ranges greater than a large share of these resources are occupied in total exports (ibid.).
The situation was similar in the UK in the 80s after the start of large-scale mining in the North Sea. "Dutch disease", manifested in Nigeria in the 70s when, after a rise in world oil prices became the basis of the Nigerian economy. Then came the collapse of other sectors. Exports of crude oil has destroyed the export-oriented agricultural sector of the country.
This "disease" of "infected" and Columbia in the '70s - a bad harvest in Brazil and Guatemala have caused rise in coffee prices. The growth of coffee exports was accompanied by folding the export of all other species of Colombian goods. Not many could overcome the "terrible" "Dutch disease" ... Today is an effective means of liberal school as sterilization of excess money supply and the liberalization of imports of equipment.
To sterilize the money supply liberal school uses: the creation of a fully invested abroad, the stabilization fund, the production of government securities, the formation of a budget surplus by cutting government spending and revenue growth from increased tax burden on the primary sector, the creation of financial reserves in the form of account balances (budget sterilization ), increasing foreign exchange reserves. Much less the excess money goes to the early repayment of external borrowings.
As a measure limiting the possibility of increasing the money supply is also tightening rules on foreign borrowings (which was not held in the Russian economy). In order to combat the "Dutch disease" is used, and economic policies - liberalization of imports of equipment - to diversify the economy.
It is important to choose the right direction and promote diversification of import of equipment, but not consumer goods. In addition, it is advisable to redirect cash flows of the real estate industry in the processing industry, high technologies and infrastructure. But when you print the "oil capsule" in 2009, the anti-crisis spending as follows: In the financial sector - 85%, the real sector - 15% ...... and the "Bear's disease," the government financial sector "... Accountant, my dear accountant, Here it is - a simple ... "hit the 90s.
Significantly, the financial sector of the Russian government followed exclusively monetarist (accounting), but economic recipes. So tselepolozheniem chosen mythical "fighting inflation" - recently our Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced inflation for the year in the region of 3-5% - a clear relay of the "economic guru" Kudrin, who reveres the late mandates Gaidar, in turn podcherpnuvshego "sacred knowledge" all from the same "Chicago boys." Of course, the accounting approach speaks only of monetary inflation, the consumer is not given.
In addition, at least ½ of inflation gives the government itself, indulging higher prices "natural monopolies". But is the economic calculations in the cerebellum is able to accommodate the monetarists? But in the monetarist solutions were made gross errors - stabilization fund investing abroad (the "usefulness" of the events discussed below) have not been tightened rules on foreign borrowings.
Moreover, the real economy was also a so-called "credit scissors" - when placed under a $ 400 billion, an extremely low interest rates and borrowing obtained by 8-10%. Thus, foreign banks received as grants from the Russian economy about $ 32-36 billion a year ... So the "Dutch disease" was "a bear's disease," the Ministry of Finance ... The situation is much worse, if we assume that this was a deliberate action ...
  
But there is a "non-standard monetary approaches" Liberal monetarism does not imply that in a vast country the means to start up on transport infrastructure, social services - medicine, science, education, etc. (Which is not too much for the country, lowering the standards in two decades).





 
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