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вторник, 22 декабря 2015 г.

CB playing against the ruble

 Central Bank has allocated 200 billion rubles for the game against
The Bank of Russia on Tuesday decided to provide additional loans to banks, despite the influx of money from the federal budget and the collapse of oil prices, threatening the ruble. Within the main refinancing operations - week repo - Central Bank will allocate 200 billion rubles of new means of increasing the limit to 750 billion rubles, from the data on the website of the regulator.The decision of the Central Bank can be considered unexpected, the analyst "Uralsib Capital" Irina Lebedeva: the last time the Bank of Russia gradually reduced lending to banks, withdrawing the excess money supply, which comes to market as a result of emission of funds to the budget.

Recall, in order to buy the currency at the Ministry of Finance, the Reserve Fund and to close the shortfall in the treasury, the Central Bank since the beginning of the year "printed" 1.4 trillion rubles. At the same time, to deal with the risk of inflation from such a policy, the Central Bank has reduced the issuance of weekly loans to banks - from 2.45 trillion rubles at the beginning of the year to 4-year low of 550 billion rubles last week.Now, however, the Central Bank, apparently, decided to partially abandon the policy of creating a deficit of rubles on the market that supports the policy.Height limit for the ruble repo creates new risks for the ruble, which already was under the blow of falling oil prices, warns Lebedev. "An increase in the debt on ruble repos can cause overflow of liquidity in the foreign exchange market and cause an increase in demand for foreign currency", - the expert explains.According to her, now you can see indirect signs that banks are waiting for a new wave of reduction of the ruble - they refuse to take new loans in foreign currency (after giving will have a more expensive dollar), as well as actively involve denominated loans secured by the existing currency ("currency swap" ) - so they fund denominated expenses, without parting with dollars and euros."Currency Swap" - a rather expensive refinancing instruments, and demand for it is often observed during periods of sharp weakening of the ruble, "- says Lebedev.The reluctance of the ruble korrektirvatsya with oil promises further problems for the Russian budget problems, said the chief economist at ING Bank in Russia and the CIS Dmitry Polevoy. According to him, this situation can be corrected rate cut by the central bank at a meeting on 11 December.The ruble is currently overvalued relative to oil prices by almost 10% - the dollar exchange rate should be in the range of 70-75 rubles, analysts warn Sberbank CIB.Source: finobzor.ru 

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