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среда, 30 декабря 2015 г.

Depletion Stabfoonda the end of 2018

The Central Bank has called Russian term depletion of reservesIn coming years, budgetary revenues, expressed as a percentage of GDP, will be reduced. The need to reduce the deficit, the Reserve Fund and the majority of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) runs out at the end of 2018. This information is contained vbyulletene Research and Forecasting Department (FID) of the Central Bank, "What do the trends."The regulator expects that the budget revenues will fall from 36.4 percent of GDP in 2015 to 34.2 percent in 2018. "This is primarily due to the decrease in oil revenues due to the relatively stable exchange rate and low oil prices," - says the Central Bank.

DIP notes that in 2015 the budget deficit will amount to 4.1 percent of GDP. To reduce it, it is necessary to reduce costs from the current 40.5 percent of GDP to 35.7 percent of GDP by 2018.Lack of funds will be financed from the Reserve Fund (the money it will end in mid-2017) and the National Welfare Fund (the end of 2018 its size will fall to 2.5 percent of GDP, of which one percent is liquid, and the rest - are invested in infrastructure projects through Vnesheconombank)."The significant increase in taxes and fees, as well as raising the retirement age seems unlikely until 2019," - said in a bulletin.The conclusions and recommendations are published by the Department, may not coincide with the official position of the Bank of Russia.December 2 State Duma adopted in the second reading the draft budget for 2016. The following year, the treasury should get 13.74 trillion rubles, and the government plans to spend 16.10 trillion rubles. The deficit is at the level of 2.36 trillion (three percent of GDP).According to the Ministry of Finance, on November 1 in the Russian Reserve Fund was 4.23 trillion rubles (65.71 billion dollars, or 5.8 percent of GDP), the FNB - 4.73 trillion rubles (73.45 billion dollars, or 6.5 percent GDP). Finance Minister Anton Siluanov believes that the Reserve Fund will run out in 2016. He noted that in 2015 the deficit will leave more than half of the financial airbags.Reserve Fund and National Welfare Fund are part of the international reserves of the Russian Federation. Their total volume of 369.64 billion US dollars (the information of the Central Bank on November 1).
Source: lenta.ruFrom firewood?Current ArchiveAt the moment, it is impossible to find a newspaper that would not have addressed the issue of using the Stabilization Fund, the amount of which, as of May 1, exceeded 800 billion rubles, foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank, in excess of income of the oligarchs, the number of which Russia took the second place in the world of industrial policy. As a result of an influx of money, the leadership of the Ministry of Finance and Cabinet members went round the head, and they are, so as not to ruin our economy, what will happen is inevitable if, believe they decided to destroy the American economy, and these funds are invested in US securities. "Stabilization Fund and gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank are invested in illiquid securities of foreign states. In other words, our "oil" money do not work on domestic and on foreign economies. " "Arguments and Facts", Yelena Panina, deputy of the State Duma, Deputy Economic Policy Committee of the State Duma.
But despite such a heated debate around the Stabilization Fund, no one raised the question: where, strictly speaking, firewood, that is, in excess profits, which are divided between the state and the oligarchs? Those explanations, which we hear is the result of increased oil prices on the world market, it is natural rent, can satisfy except the ignorant. Although at first glance it seems legitimate. But is it really? Is it a gift of nature or random luck, as a result of price fluctuations on the world market?To look into this problem you need to address the issue of cost of goods, which they are determined and what is natural rent.Without going into the depth of the political economy of the conventional formulation can be stated that the cost of the goods - has crystallized socially necessary labor. That is, goods worth as much as you want to average socially necessary labor to produce it. Reverse nobody has proved. It should be borne in mind that the value of a commodity is determined not only by the amount of labor used in the last stage of production, but also by the quantity of labor required for the production of machinery and equipment used in the production process. In concrete terms, the value of goods can be divided into constant capital, are machines, equipment, buildings, raw materials, which is in the process of production transfers its value to the final product, and the variable - the cost of employed labor force. In turn, the cost of constant capital used too decomposed into constant capital and labor. Expression of the value of goods for money is its price, which varies depending on supply and demand. In terms of competition and free movement of capital, the price always fluctuates around value. From the foregoing it follows naturally that the price of goods depends on the value of the constant capital employed, ie, machinery and equipment used in production and labor costs, that is, the magnitude of wage employees.
It is worth noting that the state and the excess profits oligarchs got to the last rise in oil prices. The prices for oil increased as a result of global economic growth and a corresponding increase in demand for oil and reduce oil reserves in the world. In order to clarify the issue of our price fluctuations on the world market do not matter.
Suppose that produced in Russia, one ton of oil is worth $ 1,000. Of this $ 1,000 $ 300 goes to salaries oil companies, $ 400 for permanent capital and profits of $ 300, which breaks down into taxes, necessary fees, such as for the right to develop the field, and on the income of the entrepreneur. Now, for example, in Norway, a ton of oil costs $ 1,200 and is divided into the following proportions: $ 600 goes to pay for wage labor, 400dollarov constant capital and profit of $ 200, which also includes income taxes and employer. In the UK, a ton of oil costs $ 1,500, and its price is allocated as follows: $ 600 of wages, $ 700 costs for constant capital and $ 200 profit. If you imagine that in addition to the above mentioned countries on the world market, there is no one, since it does not change the facts, we arrive at the following conclusions.When the extraction of natural resources, which are unevenly spread across the globe and belong to different owners, which are the state, there are rental relationship. The rental price of the relations of production in the worst conditions for capital, and this tax and the cost of labor and natural conditions, and customs restrictions, is regulating the market price. And if the price of oil will rise further, then it will produce and at great depths of the seabed and then a ton of oil on the world market will be even higher.In this case, the market price is at around $ 1,500 per tonne. So, the Russian entrepreneurs will sell oil worth $ 1,000 at $ 1,500 per tonne. Where did they got an additional $ 500 per ton. And they arose not because of natural resources of Russia, although the basis it is, but because of the tax benefits from the government, because of the low labor costs, due to the high degree of exploitation of the working people of Russia, and not only in the oil industry, and in the entire field of production. That's all, as for oil pipes are required, drilling, machinery, tractors, and much more, for the production of which, in turn, requires coal, metals, wood, and the whole constant capital enters its value in the end product. And accordingly, the lower the cost of labor, ie wages, the cheaper the ton of oil for an entrepreneur, the more he will profit from selling it on the international market. Only the profit gotten with the help of the state, in his pocket oligarchs, is nothing but a surplus value created by the employees of different industries. The profits are not generated by the mines, fields, land or capital, as such, but it allows owners to receive a share of the surplus value. And the state, all sorts of techniques, moderating real wage growth creates favorable conditions for the formation of super-profits. And if you add to that tax breaks for the oligarchs, who pay only 9 percent from their income, while ordinary citizens pay 13 percent, it becomes obvious the rapid growth of big capital.Today we can state that the trade in raw materials in the international market there is not natural, and the state rent. State ownership of the territory, which produces oil and other natural resources, which the state has the right to impose taxes where it is actively involved in the regulation of wages, where the government in every way prevents the expression of the will of the people, and create opportunities for excess profits, so this excess profits should be considered not natural rent, and the state.So that if a miner receives not $ 300, and 3000, in the mechanical engineering salaries would be not less than $ 2,500, and in metallurgy not lower doctor and teacher - not less 1000dollarov and entrepreneurs capitalized profits, no excess profits would and did not arise, no overheating of the economy and did not happen, and the members of the government and the Ministry of Finance would not hurt a head, about how to use the additional revenue. How to sterilize excess money and keep them out of the country's economy.And then, according to this example, the cost of tons produced in Russian oil would not cost a thousand dollars, and assume $ 1,400 decaying in the following proportions: $ 600 salary, $ 600 cost of the constant capital, and $ 200 profit and $ 100 arisen over profits could be successful, by a decision of Parliament, invested in the future development of the country, in science, in the development of new technologies. In this situation, the problem of the use of funds to solve thousands of Russians, as employees and entrepreneurs in various industries. And believe me, they would have placed them for the benefit of themselves and the country, and they would not have the desire to put them into securities of foreign states.It's obvious that our country is going on about the oligarchs, so much began in sweating from his people, that is about to drown, and without the help of people he could not escape.Vitaly Glukhov10.10.2005

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