"When I hear the word" derivative ", that wants to grab the gun" - to paraphrase a bad person
The impasse of modern global financial system is sufficiently obvious. What does not draw its terrible end, we are already at the bifurcation point - to build on the site of "madhouse" of his clone called "madhouse-2", using the corrupting system of lending money, or go to the cash nexus, did not give rise to pernicious usury, destroying human morality and the economy.
Negative trap.
Whatever actions are not undertaken in the current global financial system will only get worse. Yesterday was to be held an extraordinary meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Why are we talking about the U.S.? - Because here is the quintessence of the problem - the consumer more than 40% of global GDP and emissioner world's reserve currency - is an artificial stimulant of the world economy is now beating in breaking. Numerous "leaks" have assumed that it will be about the Fed raising rates, which could greatly affect the financial markets. But the decision has not been accepted as a positive outcome does not exist.
Deflation in 2008 put out an enormous monetary pumping. Cash money in the U.S. rose at times, banks have received huge money on the security is worthless derivatives, programs to support the economy (mainly financial sector) worked in full.
Propaganda has driven consumers to the idea that "the crisis is over," they moved and began to spend. Since revenues are not growing, then began to decrease savings (which grew from the beginning of the crisis). The real sector of the company began to increase capacity utilization. At this time, the financial sector began to actively speculate with excess funds in the financial markets.
Naturally prices crept to the resources (only for oil increased by two times). Started to increase the costs of producers, but the demand, as the exhaustion of stocks (and growing incomes) will inevitably fall, so the increase in selling prices is impossible. The prices for the resources controlled by the Fed inflated the banks, it would seem, can be dropped "by fiat."
But then comes the fun part (M. Khazin).
U.S. in April alone to repay the treasury bonds of 600 billion and the amount to cover the budget deficit (still about 120 billion). For the U.S., the ideal situation - the sale of new bond issues with a low yield (the yield is determined by the discount bond coupon payments and a discount from face value, for which they are sold, if the price is high - a small discount, the yield is low, and if prices are low - the yield is high, since repaid they are at par).
But in the hands of holders of U.S. securities today is about 10 trillion with a higher yield, and, and so lately shed all the time to invest in higher-yielding financial projections, or close the "hole" in their own budgets.
The following picture is obtained. The financial situation of the real sector was getting worse because of the high yields on speculative markets. The Fed has to continue to issue in order to maintain high prices and low yields on U.S. Treasury bonds market, and reduce the profitability of this is impossible, since then have nowhere to do with the excess emission dollars ...
In such a situation it is necessary to raise the discount rate to sterilize the excess money supply. But if you do, the situation in the real sector will get their own banks, in addition, no one will buy bonds, but to the same Federal Reserve. In this case, the money to get straight to the real sector, and increase consumer inflation, which further devalue the demand ... The circle is complete ...
"When the tops can not control, and the lower classes do not want to live in the old" - a revolutionary situation to another unpleasant person
Recall that the revolution - it's not just people with red, green or tricolor banners, and systemic transformation of political, economic, and social institutions. Such transformations occur in the states when they are in a state of collapse. This endeavor of the entire global system - coming world revolution.
What will happen transformation? How to change the mentality? You can make some suggestions, but first it's worth remembering, as a global mindset has changed since the last century, when a revolution is potentially ready to become the World, has already occurred.
The mentality of statism, as the mentality of production.
Addition of capitalism, which has been described by "classical political economy" does not exist anymore. "The West has created a material of the colonies" - wrote K.Levi-Strauss.
The mentality of capitalism, "free competition» XIX century, based on the free capture of the colonies and their resources, ceased to exist when unoccupied colonial resources anymore. This led to a clash of interests, vylivsheesya in the First World War. The rigidity and collision mobilization needed in the early twentieth century gave rise to the mentality of "the century of statism" - the century of huge machines (W. Mau).
This understanding is reflected in literature and art - "Nemesis" Block, "The Iron Heel" by Jack London, the works of Zamyatin, Huxley and Orwell's "Bolero" by Ravel, etc.
In the situation of the "awakening of the masses", when, under the concept of poverty and wealth, "understood as presence or absence of a coat," the question arose as to ensure the satisfaction of the masses (including imposing their will). The answer could only be a big production. Therefore, there was an understanding of the following vector of the future - success will be the one who is actively centralizes - the absolute trend of the first half of the twentieth century. From this it appeared not only socialism, but fascism and the "New Deal" FDR associated with a sharp increase in the role of the state.
The main flow of resources exist in the workplace. Control over these streams, as well as for themselves the means of production, became a power component. In this case, all countries catch-up industrialization actively relied on public institutions.
In this situation, Stalin and his entourage expressed sverhkontsentrirovannuyu global trend of development of productive forces [1], and the speed of execution and the methods of approximation based on an understanding of the impending World War, has become a reflection of the collision "mentality of huge machines."
Soviet industry began to grow rapidly quantify the adoption of the plan the first five years (including those from agriculture) - there were new enterprises grew rapidly industrial output. The growth in the first five-year period amounted, according to various estimates, up to 23-25% per year in the second - in the region of 8-10%, which is also huge numbers, especially in comparison with the Great Depression, which affected not only the U.S. but the entire capitalist world . This was due, firstly, the autarky (isolation) of the internal market by the global crisis, and secondly, the presence of a huge deficit of the goods pledged devastation of civil war, and thirdly, the size of the domestic market economically feasible for existing at the time of production technologies, in- Fourth, the first all-time successes of the Soviet economy were associated with general enthusiasm, relaxed labor, pledged consciousness idealistic project that involves "an exciting dream of the future" [2]. Finansizma mentality - the mentality of mediation with the development of productive forces to the masses, "there was a question of not having a coat, and the choice of colors, patterns and quality" - has reinforced its economic ideology of liberalism. There was a question of overproduction and lower costs, profit margins did not meet the increased appetite and owners. Keynesian "social welfare state" emerged as "an extraordinary response to the depression" (especially under the pressure of the external and internal socialist movements) and the shape of post-colonial control over Third World countries involved in the global market - disappears by the beginning of the 70 [ 3], together with the Fordist employment relationship. Further socialization would totally deprive the capitalist elite of her base. Begins the process of "globalization" - the export of production to countries with cheap labor. Availability of production in developed kapstranah marginalized, industrialization became the lot of third countries, but the profit from the production transferred to the metropolis. Finances are a form of control. State takes control of the flow of resources. The age of private finance is replaced by the Machine Age. Western sociological farm "type of mediator" begins to fully substitute for the "type products." Financial capital parasite, first, to create a high trade margins on manufactured goods in third countries, and secondly, by subsidizing a clearly non-performing loans to external, third, due to uncontrolled emissions and secondary financial derivatives. So in the Post Keynesian period, the sum "mentality finansizma." The result is a skewed distribution of world income in favor finkapitala (current 60% vs. 10% in the 50s). The era was characterized by the construction of countless theories and instruments, and a boundless faith in the "financial centers". The pinnacle of the evolutionary growth of the economy was regarded as the transition status of the national currency in the category of "reserved" [4].
Russia, for various reasons, the fact (in a state of stagnation that entered into the state perestrojka) missed the "happiest moment" "fracture economic consciousness," but is now actively rushed to catch up with "leaders finansizma" in a short period is trying on the laurels of "financial haven ".
The peculiarity of our situation is that the liberal reforms of the 90s focused on the global capitalist division of labor, where competitors are not wanted, there is no "export production to third countries" (this never happened in history with Russia) have not taken place - the production of simply destroyed. Instead, place the transition to the raw material of parasitism.
Meanwhile, in modern conditions, the concentration of financial resources needed - both for product development, high technology, as well as for large projects, you will need to remember and the specific climatic conditions of GDP [2]. So what should be the financial center?
The mentality of communitarianism - the mentality of the quality of life
Copy the "loony bin" and try to build a parallel system ("madhouse-2"), it is not logical, especially when it becomes apparent collapse of the existing finsistemy. Compete in a falling market is difficult, moreover, the construction of a real competitive system will inevitably cause a severe clash with the existing one.
What this may cause - we remember the history of the first half of the twentieth century. The way out of the situation can only be non-systemic. It should leave Manilovism the "reserve currency" and take care, above all, its own market by stopping the practice of commodity parasitism, not making the transition to parasitism, and financial.
But, realizing the economic necessity of a high concentration of capital, we must not forget that capital in its maximum concentration is converted into pure power.
Admit the possibility of concentration of power in the hands of private financiers criminally - those functions delegated to the society they are not and never has delegated to the conscious state. The concentration of capital is possible only in the hands of society, whose interests may be a legitimate state. So do not put a large concentration of capital in the private banks.
The base should be a single state (public) bank, carries its own emission policies (not tied up in foreign currency), the economy is in the ideal conditions for a normal development as a simplified system of taxation and accounting, and the society - the quality of life and social protection.
It should be noted that the basis of such non-systemic financial center perfect fit, "Common," "free money Gezzelya" with negative returns. Let's note the gains that would accrue from their implementation of society and the economy:
First, it will be liquidated enormous imbalance in the redistribution of world income - 60% of those who today receives undeserved financial capital, will be sent to the scientific, cultural and social sphere - thus almost twice as raising the quality of human life.
Secondly, the use of negative returns permanently solve the issue with a specific feature of the money - "monetary phenomenon", concluded that the possession of money as a means of wealth involves the holder in negligible costs of storage, while storage of supplies (food, raw materials for the production of food for the city) is not so cheap. That is, "Keeper of the money" - a banker, financier - was originally delivered in a more privileged than anyone working in the real sector.
Thirdly, besides restoring a level playing field for business, there are purely practical application - the "free money" (which at one time raised a number of economic areas in Austria, Germany, Canada and the United States during the Depression), subject to limited self-sufficiency, much accelerate the turnover of the local industry that would become one of the reasons for the accelerated recovery from the crisis, the more so in our case we have a particularly severe form of superposition of the phases of the system of global crisis (which we are held hostage to the "trap of negative selection" - see above) on a purely internal.
Fourth, a negative return (demurrage) is very easy to adjust (especially in electronic form) - providing, thus, the impact on various macroeconomic parameters. Obviously, the more negative percentage, the more accelerated cash and merchandise sales. Experience in application of the monetary system in Vergele showed accelerated turnover of up to 20 times. Experts estimate made in Japan, deflation is needed to curb the level of 4% per annum, Gezzel proposed the use of rate 1% per month (-11.4% per annum) (the method of establishing the value of a negative percentage still require further study.)
The issue should take place under the specific needs of the economy. The initial size of the issue of "free money" tied to "standard money" to replace, and then go on a policy of regulation and binding to the needs of the economy. If you want to compress the mass - the natural way a negative rate of return (options are possible), if there is a need to increase the money supply - increasing emissions, if at the same level - a constant issue in the amount of compensation for demurrage.
Fifth, the negative value of interest available and understandable to all (as opposed to an abstract of inflation for many), enable the society to consciously monitor the effectiveness of the government (instead of listening to stupid news releases from the price fluctuations in the stock market).
Sixth, the negative interest may be the only form of taxation (an ersatz form of sales tax), will significantly reduce the cost of accounting, will remove the complexity of multiple fiscal practices. The practice of tax evasion ever gone into oblivion without a "crackdown" and public executions on the lampposts.
Seventh, in modern terms simply solved the main technical problem with "a monthly collection of vintage" (by Irving Fisher) (intractable in the form of fixation across the country a negative return) - a transfer of all payments to electronic form and the complete abandonment of paper money (as it is in Japan), especially as the technical basis has actually incorporated not only acquiring multiple systems, but also a national program of the settlement system. Full transition to electronic payments, by the way, and have a positive impact on the environment - recycling of worn-out banknotes is a rather serious problem.
Eighth, in a psychological component gezzelevskih money - one of the most important - to move from the liberal communitarian model of society to society (A.Makinter, K.Lash, G. Pirogov) with high social orientation (the fourth political theory). At the same time will be eliminated by a non-violent "type brokers" - lenders (banks become simple settlement centers) and eliminated the accumulation of pathology, "boxes" - when the money is not lost in the "abstract of inflation," and literally writing off the accounts.
Ninth, on contemporary issues funded pension system, we all move on to the PAYG pension system (not egalitarian, and takes into account the achievements of labor), based on the principle of solidarity between generations.
Tenth, the people who have significant incomes will no longer invest in the capsule, and after the purchase of necessary goods, including as a form of capital investment, will move from the "state of Gobseck" to the charity of Savva Morozov (ie, people will be more tend to create social and charity projects), another way of investing could be investing in art.
The negative manifestation of hoarding will be the appearance of some surrogates (or the use of foreign currency) - the question of neutralization of this phenomenon will require a study (in some detail the theory in this area outlined Margrit Kennedy).Eleventh, free money meet the standards of morality and the spirit of at least three major religious denominations - Orthodox Christianity, where "from the" blessed "of ownership and economic activity confiscated everything connected with the bank as a percentage of wealth creation" from nothing. " The Church believes in the canon is excommunication. Even though we are now forced to deal with banks and interest, we must clearly realize that this is a direct sin with all its consequences for both bankers and customers ", Islam, where the receipt and payment of interest is forbidden, and Buddhism.
The introduction of monetary relations will attract many supporters in neighboring countries, expanding and raising the spirituality among Catholics, where the economic scenario of life imposed on capitalism, forced the Catholic clergy to remove restrictions on bank interest for the Catholic banks. _______________________________________________ [1], by and large, the period from 1914 to 1945 is called the long neo-Thirty Years' War, because a series of two world wars and a "small conflicts" during this period in the long run is another reason - the redivision of the world market after the the collapse of the "classical capitalism".
[2] As far as the victim had been acquitted of the Stalinist period (when the object of political change after the formation of political economy and civil war had destroyed 650 thousand, and about 2.9 million worked in the industrialization of barbed wire? On the one hand, economic policy, which would have been justified loss of life, can not be effective.
"The normal economic science" does not consider the period of revolutions and civil wars, when the power is virtually non-existent - there are no borders, no army, no monetary system, but how to deal with periods of overcoming resistance and consciousness? These periods - the fight with the catastrophe.
There is another reason for tough economic mobilization of Stalin - as a result of the First World War of global markets, global capitalist system is undermined Russia as a competitor and, in a sense, passing it to the north. There are economic calculations in which the geographical and climatic zones produced GDP - respectively, the temperature of its production.
In all the countries in the XX century the average temperature of GDP has risen when the economy was translated into more favorable conditions, as the man of the XX century to the more demanding conditions of production than a medieval peasant or English working XVIII century. The Soviet Union was the only country where the temperature is decreased, since there was a shift to the north - where the economy is less efficient a priori. But such were the conditions of survival - to provide mining and metallurgical production in Norilsk was not possible on a rotational basis, primarily due to transportation problems for these distances and climatic conditions.
Difficult conditions ensured the survival of the country in global competition (vylivsheysya in the subsequent war) - it was one of economic reasons.
Therefore, before the Great Depression of the Soviet Union was the only country that went from a market economy to a rigidly totalitarian and centralized - Stalin had to go a lot further than a simple transition to a market economy from the NEP to the state economy.
Meanwhile, it should be noted that in the reign of "bloody tyrant Stalin's" Soviet population in 1926 increased by 35 million people (in spite of the war), and for the past 20 years, «soft-tyranny" of modern liberalism, the history of Russia's population declined by 7 million (the demographic gap between existing speakers - about 25 million). Is it possible to estimate these numbers, as the loss of human life?
Is it fair to assess the economic "efficiency of liberalization" in terms of a "normal economy" despite the fact that the average household income, converted to gold equivalent, and have not reached "the level of socialist", and health services and school education in 2011 will be paid?Source http://martinis09.livejournal.com/155036.html # cutid1
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