Ministry of Economic Development is seeking a change of course from the Central BankKremlin party of a strong ruble to 33 rubles per dollar16/03/2010 / Anastasia Bashkatova
Klepach against the ruble.Central Bank (CB) to stop the ruble, which poses a threat to the national economy. With such a call was made on Sunday evening Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach. Independent economists advised the Central Bank of the ruble to weaken at least up to 33 rubles. the dollar. But against this stands the Kremlin's party of a strong ruble. However, some experts believe that the impact of exchange rate on the dynamics of the GDP in the current crisis is too exaggerated or even weak ruble is unlikely to accelerate economic growth.
Speaking Sunday on Russian Financial Forum in Switzerland, Deputy Economic Development (MED) Klepach said that in the next two to three years for the conservation of the liberal foreign exchange policy of the Russian Central Bank will strengthen the ruble, which "dramatically worsen the competitiveness of virtually all sectors of the economy." "That does not mean that the Central Bank behaves correctly, it behaves in accordance with the policy, which has adopted and which at this point support and the government - explains the official. - However, this policy should be adjusted because the risks are too great. "As explained by Chief Economist Development Center Valeriy Mironov, then face two approaches to the factors of economic growth. On the one hand, the mayor believes that the strengthening of the ruble and the subsequent increase in imports negatively affect the domestic industry, as incomes go for purchase of imported goods. On the other hand, the Central Bank is trying to slow inflation by strengthening the ruble and reduce the cost of imported goods, reducing inflation, in turn, should stimulate savings, investment, lending. "But I was wary of the fact that at the end of 2009 and even in January and February 2010 we have inflation has fallen sharply - Mironov said. - And the Central Bank is struggling with the ghosts. So it does make sense to postpone the transition to a free rate for the period of this year, when inflation is low and it will effect the stagnation of demand. ""At the current rate of 30 rubles to the dollar economy is on your side - says the economist. - Why should the ruble to weaken at least 10%. " But the devaluation itself - not a panacea, it must necessarily be accompanied by import-substituting industries, and here again there is a question of investment incentives.However, many economists believe that the Ministry of Economic Development overstate the impact of exchange rate on economic growth - especially in the current crisis. "Some negative effects of ruble appreciation there, but it is insignificant. Where are obvious long-term positive effect, because the expensive ruble contributes to import modern equipment, labor productivity and efficiency of the economy ", - says the head of the Economic Expert Group Evsey Gurvich. Dear ruble theoretically could negatively affect the automotive industry, agricultural producers and exporters in the manufacturing sector. But the export of small manufacturing firms, the Russian car industry in a systemic crisis, which does not affect the ruble, and agriculture, by contrast, is on the rise because of rising domestic prices, exchange rate and additional support for it is not necessary."Hope to repeat the positive effect of the devaluation of 1998 today in vain," - said Gurvich. Then the growth is not explained by import substitution, and a sharp increase in the share of company profits by reducing the share of wages. In the current crisis the share of wages is almost reduced, while the share of corporate profits has fallen so much that it does not compensate for the change of the course, says the economist.Experts are sure that in spite of their demarches, MED can not really change the policy of the Central Bank. "Even with the Ministry of Finance Ministry of Economic Development will not force the Central Bank to abandon the policy of floating exchange rate - says the president of expert advice" Neocon "Mikhail Khazin. - This could make Medvedev, the presidential administration but rather a powerful lobby, acting as a strong ruble. " (About the Kremlin's party of a strong ruble, "NG" wrote 10/28/09.) And if in fact the case, then it is easy to guess whose interests it defends the lobby. After all, deputy chief of analytical department reminds «Arbat Capital" Alexei Pavlov, "a strong national currency has traditionally played into the hands of only the importers."Although some experts are not so apocalyptic in their assumptions. In the Central banks are, but they also need economic growth. "The banks scored a lot of expensive deposits at the beginning of last year, and now they have to pay expensive deposits, while loans decreased - says Mironov. - Therefore, no coercion, and is not required. Another two months of stagnation, and the Central Bank itself will go to the necessary measures to revive the economy. " However, a complete "return to the pre-crisis policy is rigidly controlled and predictable exchange rate is impossible," - said Gurvich.-------------------------------------------------- --------------To prevent strong ruble
The current archiveLook through the press about the meeting of Vladimir Putin with A. Kudrin and scratching their heads: what are they talking about? Just can not understand it. It seems that many reporters, describing the meeting, did not understand."Too strong ruble, according to the president, could undermine the competitiveness of national economy" - the newspaper "Kommersant".How could undermine the national economy strong ruble? A strong, I take them used the expression, can cut the income of commodity monopolies, supplying hydrocarbons to world markets, but does not undermine but rather strengthen the position of producers in other industries. The Americans, in recent years doing everything to strengthen the dollar, realizing that it is the foundation of stable existence of American manufacturers. And we have, it turns out, quite the opposite.Putin's statement on the inarticulate, Kudrin has intricately Bole says: "The main measures to prevent the building - is responsible Alexei Kudrin - are measures of the government, but as soon as the government increases its spending by oil and gas revenues, it threatens to further consolidation. As part of the forecast, which we are prepared we will be able to keep the planned strengthening of the parameters. "Kudrin would have to adhere to any one of the coordinate system, rather than to declare absolutely contradictory statements. MPs and the people, he said that additional costs will cause inflation, and should therefore be restricted and, in this case, the increase in costs due to oil and gas revenues, according to the minister, will strengthen the ruble. How will strengthen? After all expenses will be made in rubles, not dollars, and therefore will increase the mass of the ruble in relation to the goods, and the same dollar, which consequently lowers the real value of the ruble, rather than strengthen.Journalists of "Vedomosti" Petrachkova Alexander, Alexander Bekker, and assessed the situation: "Strengthening of the ruble could threaten the economy, particularly the real sector, says Vladimir Putin. Why the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank will have to simultaneously fight inflation and the strengthening of the course."It seems that the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank officials, who had taken too eager to fight inflation, at the request of the president, stepped on toes raw giant, but so painful that even Vladimir Putin undertook to maintain inflation."The president asked urgently to slow down the national currency" - provides "News Time", "Putin instructed to slow down the ruble," - says Larisa Kaftan in "Komsomolskaya Pravda".
The fact that the strengthening of the ruble, unprofitable commodity monopolies, and the president is concerned about it, and Vladimir Putin made no secret. The President said that he met with representatives of large companies, "they still have a margin of safety", but the rapid appreciation of the ruble could create problems for them. Their products are becoming more expensive compared to imports, and lose the global competition. As the government is going to save the day? "And in production, what products we compete if 70% of our exports of raw materials?"We must oppose the strengthening of the ruble by all available means!" - Selflessly and with joy, said the minister. And he was not happy! After all this time, Kudrin said the only thing that did, in favor of large monopolies, supplying the world market oil, gas, metals, wood, and so on. Well, now, he still received support from the president. So now the wait for a new rise in prices, as Kudrin will deal with the strengthening of the ruble with renewed vigor.There is no doubt that Putin is bent to the side of commodity monopolies. So the only way to describe the President's statement made at a meeting with the Minister of Finance Kudrin. Six months ago, the President set the task to strengthen the ruble, reduced inflation, convertibility of the ruble, and now, under pressure from the owners of raw moguls, turns the entire policy in the opposite direction."How he found out after" contacts with the business "policy of strengthening the ruble could damage the Russian economy. - According to the newspaper" Vedomosti ". - And now to the Central Bank and the Government, in effect, put the triple objective: to prevent inflation, to keep the ruble and continued to increase government spending. With these introductory expect an interesting political season. If you do not resign, then the serious failures guaranteed: the challenge posed by the president, not feasible.The situation will remain a stalemate, if not to abandon one of the three objectives - subject to a two-input equation can be solved. ""To strengthen the ruble to the Russian authorities would be convenient to suppress inflation. But now, when the president ordered not to do so before the Finance Ministry and Central Bank raises extremely difficult task - and not to strengthen the ruble and the rising prices to fight. - Asks blankly, "Izvestia". - So, the inflation front. "Under pressure from the interests of the monopolies of raw caved in not only the president but also the government, which has developed a three-year plan to reduce the revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons. For three years the share of production tax (MET) and export duties in the revenue budget will be reduced from 50% to 30%. "This, according to Kudrin, and there is a way of reducing the budget depending on oil prices. That's just the oil barons and their lobbyists in the government, as seems not at all afraid of their dependence on oil revenues, and in full swing oil and thank their benefactors.Ivan Tevrizsky23/08/2006
Klepach against the ruble.Central Bank (CB) to stop the ruble, which poses a threat to the national economy. With such a call was made on Sunday evening Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach. Independent economists advised the Central Bank of the ruble to weaken at least up to 33 rubles. the dollar. But against this stands the Kremlin's party of a strong ruble. However, some experts believe that the impact of exchange rate on the dynamics of the GDP in the current crisis is too exaggerated or even weak ruble is unlikely to accelerate economic growth.
Speaking Sunday on Russian Financial Forum in Switzerland, Deputy Economic Development (MED) Klepach said that in the next two to three years for the conservation of the liberal foreign exchange policy of the Russian Central Bank will strengthen the ruble, which "dramatically worsen the competitiveness of virtually all sectors of the economy." "That does not mean that the Central Bank behaves correctly, it behaves in accordance with the policy, which has adopted and which at this point support and the government - explains the official. - However, this policy should be adjusted because the risks are too great. "As explained by Chief Economist Development Center Valeriy Mironov, then face two approaches to the factors of economic growth. On the one hand, the mayor believes that the strengthening of the ruble and the subsequent increase in imports negatively affect the domestic industry, as incomes go for purchase of imported goods. On the other hand, the Central Bank is trying to slow inflation by strengthening the ruble and reduce the cost of imported goods, reducing inflation, in turn, should stimulate savings, investment, lending. "But I was wary of the fact that at the end of 2009 and even in January and February 2010 we have inflation has fallen sharply - Mironov said. - And the Central Bank is struggling with the ghosts. So it does make sense to postpone the transition to a free rate for the period of this year, when inflation is low and it will effect the stagnation of demand. ""At the current rate of 30 rubles to the dollar economy is on your side - says the economist. - Why should the ruble to weaken at least 10%. " But the devaluation itself - not a panacea, it must necessarily be accompanied by import-substituting industries, and here again there is a question of investment incentives.However, many economists believe that the Ministry of Economic Development overstate the impact of exchange rate on economic growth - especially in the current crisis. "Some negative effects of ruble appreciation there, but it is insignificant. Where are obvious long-term positive effect, because the expensive ruble contributes to import modern equipment, labor productivity and efficiency of the economy ", - says the head of the Economic Expert Group Evsey Gurvich. Dear ruble theoretically could negatively affect the automotive industry, agricultural producers and exporters in the manufacturing sector. But the export of small manufacturing firms, the Russian car industry in a systemic crisis, which does not affect the ruble, and agriculture, by contrast, is on the rise because of rising domestic prices, exchange rate and additional support for it is not necessary."Hope to repeat the positive effect of the devaluation of 1998 today in vain," - said Gurvich. Then the growth is not explained by import substitution, and a sharp increase in the share of company profits by reducing the share of wages. In the current crisis the share of wages is almost reduced, while the share of corporate profits has fallen so much that it does not compensate for the change of the course, says the economist.Experts are sure that in spite of their demarches, MED can not really change the policy of the Central Bank. "Even with the Ministry of Finance Ministry of Economic Development will not force the Central Bank to abandon the policy of floating exchange rate - says the president of expert advice" Neocon "Mikhail Khazin. - This could make Medvedev, the presidential administration but rather a powerful lobby, acting as a strong ruble. " (About the Kremlin's party of a strong ruble, "NG" wrote 10/28/09.) And if in fact the case, then it is easy to guess whose interests it defends the lobby. After all, deputy chief of analytical department reminds «Arbat Capital" Alexei Pavlov, "a strong national currency has traditionally played into the hands of only the importers."Although some experts are not so apocalyptic in their assumptions. In the Central banks are, but they also need economic growth. "The banks scored a lot of expensive deposits at the beginning of last year, and now they have to pay expensive deposits, while loans decreased - says Mironov. - Therefore, no coercion, and is not required. Another two months of stagnation, and the Central Bank itself will go to the necessary measures to revive the economy. " However, a complete "return to the pre-crisis policy is rigidly controlled and predictable exchange rate is impossible," - said Gurvich.-------------------------------------------------- --------------To prevent strong ruble
The current archiveLook through the press about the meeting of Vladimir Putin with A. Kudrin and scratching their heads: what are they talking about? Just can not understand it. It seems that many reporters, describing the meeting, did not understand."Too strong ruble, according to the president, could undermine the competitiveness of national economy" - the newspaper "Kommersant".How could undermine the national economy strong ruble? A strong, I take them used the expression, can cut the income of commodity monopolies, supplying hydrocarbons to world markets, but does not undermine but rather strengthen the position of producers in other industries. The Americans, in recent years doing everything to strengthen the dollar, realizing that it is the foundation of stable existence of American manufacturers. And we have, it turns out, quite the opposite.Putin's statement on the inarticulate, Kudrin has intricately Bole says: "The main measures to prevent the building - is responsible Alexei Kudrin - are measures of the government, but as soon as the government increases its spending by oil and gas revenues, it threatens to further consolidation. As part of the forecast, which we are prepared we will be able to keep the planned strengthening of the parameters. "Kudrin would have to adhere to any one of the coordinate system, rather than to declare absolutely contradictory statements. MPs and the people, he said that additional costs will cause inflation, and should therefore be restricted and, in this case, the increase in costs due to oil and gas revenues, according to the minister, will strengthen the ruble. How will strengthen? After all expenses will be made in rubles, not dollars, and therefore will increase the mass of the ruble in relation to the goods, and the same dollar, which consequently lowers the real value of the ruble, rather than strengthen.Journalists of "Vedomosti" Petrachkova Alexander, Alexander Bekker, and assessed the situation: "Strengthening of the ruble could threaten the economy, particularly the real sector, says Vladimir Putin. Why the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank will have to simultaneously fight inflation and the strengthening of the course."It seems that the Ministry of Finance and Central Bank officials, who had taken too eager to fight inflation, at the request of the president, stepped on toes raw giant, but so painful that even Vladimir Putin undertook to maintain inflation."The president asked urgently to slow down the national currency" - provides "News Time", "Putin instructed to slow down the ruble," - says Larisa Kaftan in "Komsomolskaya Pravda".
The fact that the strengthening of the ruble, unprofitable commodity monopolies, and the president is concerned about it, and Vladimir Putin made no secret. The President said that he met with representatives of large companies, "they still have a margin of safety", but the rapid appreciation of the ruble could create problems for them. Their products are becoming more expensive compared to imports, and lose the global competition. As the government is going to save the day? "And in production, what products we compete if 70% of our exports of raw materials?"We must oppose the strengthening of the ruble by all available means!" - Selflessly and with joy, said the minister. And he was not happy! After all this time, Kudrin said the only thing that did, in favor of large monopolies, supplying the world market oil, gas, metals, wood, and so on. Well, now, he still received support from the president. So now the wait for a new rise in prices, as Kudrin will deal with the strengthening of the ruble with renewed vigor.There is no doubt that Putin is bent to the side of commodity monopolies. So the only way to describe the President's statement made at a meeting with the Minister of Finance Kudrin. Six months ago, the President set the task to strengthen the ruble, reduced inflation, convertibility of the ruble, and now, under pressure from the owners of raw moguls, turns the entire policy in the opposite direction."How he found out after" contacts with the business "policy of strengthening the ruble could damage the Russian economy. - According to the newspaper" Vedomosti ". - And now to the Central Bank and the Government, in effect, put the triple objective: to prevent inflation, to keep the ruble and continued to increase government spending. With these introductory expect an interesting political season. If you do not resign, then the serious failures guaranteed: the challenge posed by the president, not feasible.The situation will remain a stalemate, if not to abandon one of the three objectives - subject to a two-input equation can be solved. ""To strengthen the ruble to the Russian authorities would be convenient to suppress inflation. But now, when the president ordered not to do so before the Finance Ministry and Central Bank raises extremely difficult task - and not to strengthen the ruble and the rising prices to fight. - Asks blankly, "Izvestia". - So, the inflation front. "Under pressure from the interests of the monopolies of raw caved in not only the president but also the government, which has developed a three-year plan to reduce the revenue from the sale of hydrocarbons. For three years the share of production tax (MET) and export duties in the revenue budget will be reduced from 50% to 30%. "This, according to Kudrin, and there is a way of reducing the budget depending on oil prices. That's just the oil barons and their lobbyists in the government, as seems not at all afraid of their dependence on oil revenues, and in full swing oil and thank their benefactors.Ivan Tevrizsky23/08/2006
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