And whether the development?

 In 2013, Russia is expected to slow further growth.Summarizing the economic results in 2012 and trying to determine the prospects for 2013, the status quo and the near future of the Russian economy can be defined this way: braking with the probability of skidding. Immediately should stipulate that "drift" - a terminology of driving, and not what you might think, in the light of today's ostentatious campaign against bribery and embezzlement.Thus, inhibition. If at the beginning of the year, the Russian economy has grown quite a decent pace (GDP growth in the I quarter of 2012 was 4.9% compared to I quarter 2011), the III quarter, the comparable figure was plus 2.9%.
In the last quarter of 2012 the GDP growth rate will be even lower.And the main thing that should worry the authorities. Because inhibition, a clear and obvious - it's a trend with which the Russian economy is entering the year 2013.With such dynamics in no promises, handed out by the authorities in order to successfully pass the election and enshrined in the famous presidential decree of May 7, 2012, will not be performed.They, these promises, and under more favorable terms of the dynamics of the economy will fail. And as with such a trend even more.But not a word about braking the economy just presented his message to the Federal Assembly was said. But if no mention of a major economic problem, what is the price of all these proposals deofshorizatsii on the Russian economy, the declarations of the fact that in the coming decades should double its railway construction, resolve the question of imposing a tax on luxury and so on and so on?On the most recent address was already a lot said and written. It is a pity that in the main strategy document, the nothing has been said about the main. So,the end of 2012, the growth of the Russian economy is clearly slowing down. Already in October 2012, the growth of output of goods and services in basic economic activities was only 0.8% compared with October 2011.And with such a trend we enter 2013, the GDP growth which should amount to 3.7%. Achieving the target would mean a sharp acceleration of growth in the Russian economy. Like, where will this apparent change for the better in the dynamics of economic development? After the base is much more solid reasons, today there is, on the contrary, to strengthen the negative trends.The crisis in the world economy and especially in the euro area is growing. Pay attention to the most recent European statistics. Industrial production in October 2012, annualized decline of 3.6%. Unemployment hits record - 11.7%. But most probably sad is that to stop the "locomotive" of the European economy - Germany, industrial production which fell in October 2012 compared to October 2011 by 3.8%. All anything, until the "locomotive" still pulls. But, when he gets up, "the train is not going on." And it is increasingly likely that the need to "free cars." In general, the whole sentiment of the Europeans on the euro area could quickly disappear as soon as the situation is in the real economy does not deteriorate significantly in the short term and the longer.Thus, the situation on foreign markets develops unfavorably, then the drop in demand for Russian energy and raw materials will be painful.That within the country?- Budget overloaded character minimum budgetary commitments, making it impossible to finance in the proper amount activities to stimulate domestic demand;- Rising sharply since the beginning of 2013 the tax burden on business. Government (the story of the pension reform has clearly demonstrated it is) is not able to make strategically correct and responsible decisions;- Regional and municipal budgets, "cracking at the seams," straining in fulfilling election promises of the authorities, etc.It turns out that in 2013 - the year of deceleration, the year of further development of the adverse trends prevailing in the second half of 2012.What is dangerous braking? It may be because of drifting, and even rollover.We use the terminology of the traffic situation analysis in order to understand the prospects of the Russian economy in 2013.Inhibition, its effects depend, first, on the external factors (that with the road, what is the visibility on the road, etc.). External factors, as has been said, are added to the Russian economy unfavorable. Secondly, the safety brake depends on what you do with the brakes themselves, pereobulsya you on winter tires, "bald", she or normal. So here, too, drawing an analogy with the Russian economy, there is a big problem. Already mentioned lack of funds to stimulate domestic demand, higher taxes, etc. show this quite eloquently. Finally, the prospects for safe braking, or perhaps even maintaining the same speed depends ... Well, of course, the skill of the driver.Do we need the arguments in this case? I think not.So, if the road surface and the weather conditions are bad, the rubber "bald", and the driver too cocky and he clearly lacks professionalism to wait trouble. Inhibition may result in skidding and even rollover (well, this should be a very "try").In 2013, Russia expects further deceleration in the economy. Prior to breaking the case has not yet come, but drift is very likely. In numbers, this means thatunlikely to increase the country's GDP in 2013 to officially planned 3.7%. The growth will be close to zero or even to minus 2% can be reached. Inflation is also still not critical, although there are official promises (less than 6%) remain unfulfilled. It seems to be 8-9%.As for the exchange rate, its prospects to a large extent will depend on the new round of quantitative easing, sold in the U.S. and in other developed countries, the level of world oil prices. Taken as the benchmark of 35-37 rubles per U.S. dollar on average for the year.In general, the brake. By the way, clip, please.Author - Director of Strategic Analysis at FBK.
  Igor Nikolaev
CommentTo understand the economic situation in the country to look at the value of money and then everything is clear. If loans are expensive and labor is cheap, then what kind of development we can say all this with the constant growth rates and prices? The whole argument's not worth a damn. Primitive at a second year student. In Europe, the crisis is growing and as a result the author sees the problems of Russia in this. But look at China, which is thousands of times more dependent on consumption of its products in Europe and you'll see that there is not a crisis and growth. And growth is significant. But the growth in 2012 is to say specifically, since the lion's share in official statistics attributed.Internal problems voiced the second and even the third row, and not the primary.What kind of commitment says to the author? May indeed raise pensions or benefits? But no! Reduced funding for social programs, and the author assures us that the budget is overloaded social sphere. Regional and municipal budgets are plundered with great force, and not "cracking at the seams with the pre-election commitments"
 Indeed, there is no reason to hope for prosperity of the country as the domination of the financial oligarchy depletes the country (inflation, high cost of credit, export of capital), there is no coherent policy in all areas of life of the people continues to advance the interests of the plutocracy, the people and their constitutional rights (education law The pension reform in the interests of the ruling bureaucracy, the law on payment for repair), the government is continuing the policy in the interests of the big monopolies and participates in the section of their profits (growth rates) and so on. Finally, the lack of thinking and active economists capable of competently and in principle cover the country's problems.