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понедельник, 14 января 2013 г.

The global financial crisis: a failure in the system or the threshold of disaster


Casual workers Part XIII
 

Kurginyan and his company did not say nothing, that would not have been stated in the materials, including mine, which for two years hanging out on the internet. Until two years ago, the Russian businessmen in the voice wailed: "From the hedge will not give up!" This Kurginyan managed not to say the most important thing. Little chief said the other side, but this is so and hung in the air. Yes, economists there ... trouble is, since boots will stitch pieman. Nechaev pripodnosit capital flight as nowhere Grasp rashly stupid. It came down to propaganda. Some shouted: "This is liberalism to blame!" Others respond in kind: "This lack of liberalism is guilty!" Thank God, Ekaterina Kuznetsova admitted that she is not an economist. Nothing, I take notes, so that - later. No, honestly, if logically continue that carried Kurginyan ... Say no more! If mlechintsy before doduyut by Tuesday, his prize - in articles during the year will not decline with Mlechin Svanidze.Nice to only that this time Kurginyan done without poetry. If he still will be reading poetry, I'll take the money, I'll come to Moscow to strangle his pipe from a vacuum cleaner. If I could have brought him high chair, so he got up to it.


Screensaver: Marx - crises are inevitable and calculated their frequency. Russian losses were lower than expected.Kurginyan: quotes Hilferding. Not too fast, we called it a crisis? Or it's a disaster, there is catastrophe theory, which was busy, Arnold ...Mlechin: we are talking about a possible second wave, said that the collapse of capitalism, which will dissolve the USA - did not happen. There were predictions that have not come true - that the crisis will force Russia to abandon the raw model, will make to upgrade - nothing.Svanidze: what processes in the world economy have created a crisis?Kurginyan: Rohatin in 1995, said that the financial markets - the danger of atomic bombs. Thomas Fischer: derivatives trading - emancipated from the real economy sector. Yamaykovsky process - get rid of the gold currency (from Bretton Vudsovskogo agreement) - the currency began to swing, the game began, hedging, insurance papers on insurance for them - their insurance, the proceeds of gambling - the special money. Virtual value of listed derivatives - 3855 trld dollars, the real value - 53.4 trillion world financial system is based on the growth of the instability. This inevitably destroy the system of financial capitalism.Osa: speculation in money wrappers very profitable share in the profits of the financial sector - 35-40% of the psychology of the market has changed: previously you had to work hard to invest now - to play.Vladimir Ovchinsky: the global crisis - the consequence of globalization budgets, this is a global shadow system. These factors are not eliminated, they went on.
Mlechin Osinsky: you said that bad - but I've read it all, when they said that it's scary banks, stock exchanges - it's scary. I'm a common sense - perhaps the economy needs these tools, you can see in this trouble?Yuri Bialy: Schumpeter rights, said to be a loan to be creditors. After the Jamaican financial instruments no longer control the growth of virtual money, which dictate the logic of profit, it must be destroyed.Mlechin: these are texts of the late 20's, capitalism has existed and will exist, the crisis has shown that the capitalist system - sustainable.Kurginyan team: not a topic that capitalism would collapse, the theme - it's crap should be eliminated.Ekaterina Kuznetsova: the basis of - the crisis of banking regulation, it is good that it happened. Kurginyan rights, the financial bubble cheated again soon, but the coils do not lead to disaster, the crisis has allowed the diagnosis, and the disease were treated. There is a strengthening of regulation in the banking sector.Team Mlechin: before the crisis the decline in production - 30%, and now - 2%.Georgy Bovt: the system as depict in the late 20's, has collapsed, and no one noticed. The most reliable system - when loincloth changes to fish, someone wants to avoid people taking loans not insured risks ... Now U.S. law - banking operations are divided (combination of banking and investment), and the second - on derivatives transactions - restrictions , can not risk by 100%.
Kurginyan: Kuznetsova: how many trillion. dollars poured this crisis?Kuznetsova: U.S. - 1.8 Europe - 0.6. Loss of banking institutions - 7.4 trillion, and has poured $ 4 trillion., No 3000000000000000, and the actual loss of 7.4.Kurginyan: according to the IMF - 3755, on the Basel account 8 to 13 trillionKuznetsova: infusion was efekktivno, banks stopped issuing credit for a while, but then started to give out.Kurginyan: quotes William hackel - no need to be an economist to understand that the gap between the financial and real spheres so great that to be a disaster.Georgy Bovt: catastrophe - is ugh, style Western mass media ...Kurginyan: if the crisis is filled with money, it would be worse, would collapse, the allocation of money itself already generate theft ...Bovt: it's just corruption, which must be fought.
Svanidze: what is the reaction of the Russian economy to the crisis?Nechayev Mlechin gives the word: the logic of our opponents is this: the mobile phone is bad for the brain, the car - it's an accident, then do not go. Financial instruments - this is the greatest invention of mankind, we are using Exchange are betting will be the grain of $ 100 per ton or 200, insure your business. Those familiar with the math - it's a zero sum game.Russia - unfortunately, it is extremely vulnerable because We raw contingent on konyuntktury world, we depend on the price of oil, gas and metals. Entire sectors of the economy tightened, pulling along other sectors, it is deeper than in other developed countries.Kirill Rogov - this is a global crisis, the world economy has become global, because capitalism has a crushing everybody's victory. The second feature - was made possible entirely different speed operations. Technical conflicts arose when people first in this situation.
Kurginyan 2 parcels - 1 st that progress - it is always good, the hydrogen bomb - the progress, but it is not always good. We want to control the progress of system stability: either we keep the financial instruments under the control of, or is controlled by us.Kurginyan resulting curves of decline in GDP in Russia - a decline of 8%, we flew from BRIC before - was growing. Control - is centrally managed, therefore - not liberalize.Nechaev: these curves do not illustrate. In India - a liberal economy in China - because of the low starting rate of more growth, and in the special economic zones, which are focused on the technological capacity of China, where modern liberal policies, but with the party ticket in his pocket.Kurginyan: Russia sobezyannichala liberal model and ran.Nechaev: Russia crisis stronger - as Now the rejection of liberalism, is the centralization of the economy.Kurginyan: Russia copied the worst, I thought that everything would be in chocolate, all will be - and everything collapsed. Foreign debt - all went to the external borrowing (The schedule of growth).Nechaev: 40% of loans - are loans of state banks, it is heavily regulated economy, the second: how it all come together? We, in contrast to countries with liberal economies have not created a proper system of financing, because we placed his right hand in the West money and left hand on the West, and they took. You have a very vague idea of ​​liberalism.
Kurginyan: the inflow of foreign capital in terms of GDP, according to IMF - 49.4% of GDP. The crisis has shown the weakness of the banking system, which does not provide stability.Ovchinnikov: the world was trying to eliminate the crisis measures tough crime policy, the arrest of more than 400 bank executives. In Russia, this reason does not sobezyannichali, eliminated all units to combat crime in the Interior Ministry, not created anything to block the crime.Bialy all the countries of Europe out of the crisis by means of a mixed economy, re-nationalized banks. Not known in the fashion world, when the crisis came out without government interference.Nechaev: this is our Father, and what is the argument? We are talking about something else, not the intervention of the state at the time, and before that. Kurginyan says that there should be a free market.Bialy: Russia's economy - is in crisis since the early '90s. has not yet emerged.Nechaev: China is now in deep crisis. Trouble with our economy is that the hypertrophied state intervention. The public sector in the U.S. - 7.6%, Russia 70%.Bialy: an unmanaged public sector.
Day 2Svanidze: this is the most severe crisis since the Great Depression.Screensaver: scenario for the future - China becomes the world leader and the U.S. unleashing world war.Mlechin: I have immunity to the words "the crisis of capitalism." Constantly told that everything will fall apart, everything falls apart.Nechayev ("Practice financier"): in the world of science, Marx ... the word "crisis" is not used, the hypertrophied financial sector development, as it is impossible to stop progress, you can not stop the development of the market economy. There will be more regulation, international coordination of international financial institutions. World civilization could not think of a better system than the market economy. Thatcher said that socialism - an artificial system, the crisis gives a signal that something needs to be rebuilt.Mlechin: is China - not socialism?Yevgeny Bazhanov: senior Chinese say that they have a socialist capitalism, socialism in words, capitalism in action. China is moving in the direction of the market, without a word. No crisis of this path does not throw. China's leaders say, "We, as a cyclist, going in the direction of the market, we are nowhere on it is not going to go away. So far, China's many problems.
Kurginyan: Is Jacques Attali does not talk about himself izzhivshem capitalism? But Marx ceased to be the fashion at Harvard?Nechaev: I taught Marxism as cursed, 5 years, it is interesting to read at times, he came up with the theory of primitive, at the end of his life he was ready to give it up.Kurginyan quotes Pascal Lamy (WTO): the number of measures that restrict free trade, nearing 400, the fall of world trade, the expulsion from paradise globalization ...Nechaev: we hold the line on your chart is all-satisfying, capitalism was still characterized by a cyclical Kondratiev ...Kurginyan - The year 2010 is not over yet, and it's doubled?Nechayev, the curve is very optimistic upward level almost recovered ...
Kurginyan: Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at Harvard University: Crisis asked about globalization ...Nechaev: this statement is equivalent to saying that it is necessary to brush your teeth in the morning. Economies in the world, hundreds of thousands of ...Chickens in the world today too many people say that this is a disaster, they say that this model of financial capitalism is exhausted, globalism is not an irreversible process, it is a problematic process that brought the world to the social instability. Obama calls even buy American. The process started in the opposite direction durili head, saying that you do not like liberals recommend you drop out of the peace process! Such a world is over, and we need to discuss what was forbidden, if not discuss, we should expect trouble.Kurginyan gives voice to Catherine Shipov: high-level experts were concerned, three things, 1-I - as a result of the crisis, it became clear that the world is becoming multipolar, 2 nd - from 1946 to 2006, 232 of the armed conflict, 2/3 - when stopped Cold War, 2 nd - virtualization of wealth, the third - the crisis has meant that debt financiers went into debt states.Mlechin Shipov: disaster - then have to stock up matches, salt, specify to what extent the crisis threatens us? When only a crisis, argued that the U.S. will fall apart into 6 parts, that war begins, it is not.Shipov: we are talking about short-term or ... Mlechin: the short.Shipov: see that Kyrgyzstan - non-interference. Countries that can intervene, do not do it - there is no mechanism, therefore, the crisis is serious enough, not up to the countries to intervene.Mlechin: Russia did not intervene because of the crisis?Nechaev: Ossetia and intervene! (The war in South Ossetia - it is just prior to the crisis. Generally interference do not exist, BI)Shipov: the crisis has exacerbated the potential for conflict in the long term is a great danger ...
Svanidze: Will the crisis to a redivision of the world?Kurginyan quoted Nouriel Roubini, professor: the country was exhausted ... Wallerstein argues that the crisis will destroy the support of the existing world, it's not a joke, it's just ... What Wallerstein capitalism we need ... We need to bring about a situation that the economy work for man ... Will redivision of the world, will be conflicts. Exhausted the liberal model of capitalism, which we have imposed, she exhausted all.Svanidze: a jump we have in China?Kurginyan: Yes.Shipov: Is it possible to upgrade in line with liberal tendencies? It is impossible for example - Kazakhstan, is under way in the country's industrialization purely state project, hand over more than 170 new objects.Nechaev: strange form of discussion Kurginyan read quotes that globalization is over, we should all look at China. His success - 199% th product of globalization. China's economy has managed to create, involving, foreign investors are a collapse of globalization?
Team Kurginyan: of course, the combination of China's exports to the world of cheap goods, China receives dollars buys Treasuries, funded by the U.S. economy, provides expansion in Latin America, to Africa, he will soon get rid of the U.S.. Americans are terribly afraid of China's expansion, after 2017 years - just a war to stop it.Shipov: the question is not about that globalization will disappear, but it will not be the type of liberal democracy.Bazhanov: you are talking about the Chinese model, but it's not, they're just looking for another model, "feeling the stones" towards a liberal economy, China's success achieved only because of the successful development of the West, we should not be at war with the United States, not to go into the lead and cooperate. China - a liberal economy and a totalitarian government.
Bazhanov Mlechin gives the word: do not stick your neck out, not to get into leaders (Deng), the model is changing - needs and political modernization, to extend to the whole of China in Hong Kong.Mlechin: China - threat to Russia.Bazhanov: while China is busy, there are no plans like the introduction of troops, if the develop - may be dangerous. You have to use the moment as a guide in China.Mlechin Rogov: Do we threaten war? - Untie the war will be difficult, fiery speech Kurginyan like films about Lenin, Lenin said that capitalism is going to crash, we have to jump off the capitalist road, and jumped, it is déjà vu that the alleged need to consider.
Svanidze: if China comes out of the leaders, to learn Chinese?Bazhanov: the rise of China - to change the balance of power, it can lead to friction, but the dramatic redistribution of when China will capture anything - no, because of the weight of China's internal problems is not going to do that. Even in the U.S., with high-tech weight problems.Kurginyan: we are not talking about the crash of capitalism and of the model.Mlechin: there are no experts on the future, there is an expert on the past, experts have proved that such crises experienced, and it gives the movement forward, it is not a crisis of liberalism, it shows that in Russia there has been no liberalism.
Voting: Facilities - crash - 37%.
Brief commentObviously, Lenin spoke of imperialism as decaying capitalism, was mistaken. Only the collapse of the USSR served as a trigger to make the world a shot in the direction of the model of Gibson-Kautsky (criticized by Lenin) - sverhkapitalizma or ultra, which we call globalization. This error is an expensive cost - the world revolution did not happen, there was intervention. But without the Bolsheviks seized power to Russia for a long time was in polufeodalizme. On the other hand, the Bolsheviks could not take power, because after the king only Lenin argued for a way out of the war.The trend towards centralization of financial capital - it's the law. Object to it - is like spitting into the wind. Clearly, one of mlechintsev Rights: The cause of the crisis - globalization. But this is an external cause. Internal - is the emergence of financial instruments to protect against crises, allowing the implementation of some cutting-edge areas, requiring large investments. But the crisis of capitalism - it's the law. Risk insurance (hedging), and others just drive the disease inside. In 2008, the disease broke out. Nothing else in the world can not be, this is a fantasy Kurginyan as the capitalist mode of production determines all profit, ie, Ball governs the financial oligarchy, and about which he wrote.But Wallerstein, taking the position Trotskyists who say not that remind the world revolution, just stuffing your price, no more. Mlechin rights - the crisis as a crisis, well, so what? Feature only in the fact that the old tool decayed, will come up with new ones.

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