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понедельник, 28 марта 2016 г.

In regions of the debts, and at the center of the extra money

Regions - from debt featuresSergey Seninsky regions have debts, and at the center of the extra moneyBy the end of the year is already a quarter of Russia's regions accumulated debt exceeds the current incomeCurrent expenditures of the Russian regions only for repayment of the accumulated debt will increase by a third this year. Moreover, the sheer volume of these expenses - about 10% of total revenues of regions - in two to three times higher than the average for the regions most industrialized countries. According to forecasts, the cost of Russian regions can achieve more than 15% of their current income in 2018. This pattern suggests that the debt of many of them is approaching a critical level, said a leading analyst of the debt market Standard & Poor's international rating agency. In 2018 in 60 of the 85 regions of the Russian debt load may exceed 60% of annual revenues of regional budgets.


In 2013, as noted by the Accounting Chamber of Russia, in seven regions of Russia the volume of accumulated debt exceeded all of their current income. In 2015, these regions have become 12, then there is already one in seven of the country's regions.During 2016 the number of such regions can grow even in half, predicts the deputy director of the direction of "public finances" the international rating agency Standard & Poor's in Moscow Karen Vartapetov:- Of course, all of these, our estimates have scenic nature, as also depend on the underlying macroeconomic forecast, and the dynamics of the oil prices and GDP growth ... But in "base" scenario, the regions in which the debt will exceed 100% of their own proceeds to the end of 2016 would be about twenty. That is, according to our forecasts, in 19-20 Russian regions debt problems worsen by the end of this year. It is a duty that is either already exceeded their own income, or close to 100% of these revenues. This refers to the regions income less transfers from the federal budget.
Let's be clear, what is meant when the estimated ratio of the debt burden of the region and his current income. This - the entire amount of the accumulated debt of the region with respect to its operating revenues for the year? Or - just the amount that the region is required to pay during the year on account of current service accumulated a debt?- When discussing the debt problems of the regions, of course, it refers to the first index - the sum of all debt accumulated over the years with respect to its own annual income of the regional budget. The second of these indicators you - is also important for us as a rating agency. We call it "the cost of servicing and repayment of debt." It shows the acuteness of the problem of liquidity, refinancing risks faced by the regions for the next 12 months. But in general, and the Accounts Chamber and the Ministry of Finance of Russia operate ratio is the total accumulated debt to annual revenue budget of the region, with the exception of federal transfers.
The whole region is suitable to a limit, when without any major costs, both financial and political, to further reduce costs is no longer possible.According to the criteria which your agency guides the assessment of "quality" level of debt burden of individual regions of various countries of the world, what kind of level is considered a kind of "threshold"? That is so, above which the debt burden is already considered "ultra-high" or "critical" ...- In general, of course, our methodology differentiates the amounts of leverage. And, all things being equal, the higher it is, the lower the creditworthiness - the country or region. However, there are many indicators which may "soften" the high rate of debt load. Moreover, our long-term observations show that both countries and regions often "default" from the levels is not very high. That is, relatively speaking, those countries whose debt exceeds 100% of GDP, does not necessarily turn out to be in default in the next few years. Historically, more defaults occurred with debt levels of about 30-40-50%. That is the sheer amount of debt load is not always critical when assessing the probability of default. On average, the current level of debt of Russian regions, by international standards, is low. A few years ago we were talking about 30% of their total income, we are now talking about 30-40%. After two or three years, according to forecasts, it will rise to 60%, but still is - a moderate level ...It was supposed, according to the amendments that the regions with low debt sustainability actually lose financial autonomy.If the average level of leverage in the region of 60% you feel more moderate, how it may be, for example, in some European countries?- It is possible to compare, for example, such as the provinces of Spain Valencia or Catalonia, in which the amount of debt relative to income has already exceeded 200%. In Germany, land or municipal debt may reach hundreds of percent of total revenues. But the main difference between their debt by debt of Russian regions - in urgency. Debt obligations of Russian regions is very short! And they raised bank loans, and even regional bonds have very short maturities. Therefore, the average Russian regions and have to send each year to pay off the debt of about 10% of their income. By international standards, it is - a lot. Moreover, by 2018 this figure will rise in Russia is already up to 15%! .. This suggests that the situation comes to a critical level, when regions begin to be strongly dependent on the position and the financial markets, and by means of the federal budget to ... By comparison, the "normal" value of this figure - 3-5% that we see in most developed countries.That is, there was a group of regions, and it expands from year to year, for which the financial markets are virtually closed. Post bonds they will be extremely difficult, and the banks have not come to such regions to lend their deficit.Back in 2013, according to your estimates, these regions of Russia, where the debt burden exceeded 60% of their total current income was less than 20% of the total. In other words - 16-17. By the end of 2015 there were already half of all 85 of the country. That is, a group of regions in just two years has expanded once in 2,5 times! How many of them can be on your current projected two years later - at the end of the first 2017? And some of the expected dynamics of oil prices (as the main factor for the Russian budget as a whole) you are coming in these projections?- We have our own official forecasts of oil prices, and they have recently, in January, we revised the "down". In 2016, we expect is now $ 40 per barrel, in 2017 - a slight increase, and in the 2017-2018 year - rising to 55 dollars per barrel. This determines the amount of revenue and the budget system of Russia. Our last forecast made in December and January suggests that income growth regions of Russia will be more than modest. If at all it will be possible to talk about their growth this year - even in nominal terms. Accordingly, the volume of the regional budget deficit will also be significant. Also it is necessary to build up debt to finance them. Therefore, in 2018 we expect an increase in the total debt burden of Russian regions almost doubled. That is an average of all regions of the amount of debt will account for 60% of the total of their income.Behind this, of course, a very large spread, as always in Russia, among the regions. According to our estimates, the number of regions in which the debt by 2018 would be more than 60% of revenue, may exceed 70% of all Russian regions. But then again, is essential maturity debt. For example, Tatarstan's total debt now consists of budget credits, very "long", and very cheap. Because the debt burden of Tatarstan, which is now about 45-50% of its revenues, in principle, does not pose a large risk in terms of the region's creditworthiness. But there are regions in the debt structure which is dominated by commercial obligations - bank loans or bond issues. There is something just and will focus the main risks.Long-term, our observations show that both countries and regions often "default" to the debt level is not very high. Relatively speaking, those countries whose debt exceeds 100% of GDP, does not necessarily turn out to be in default in the next few years. Historically, more defaults occurred with debt levels of about 30-40-50%.More than half of its current income - 55-56% - Russian regions receive in the form of revenue from the two taxes in all - on the profits of companies (18% of its total a 20% rate), as well as the tax on personal income ( PIT) - 13%. Approximately 16% of their income regions receive from the federal budget. That is the source of three of these regions provide more than 70% of their current income. But in a recession in the economy against the backdrop of collapsed oil prices and profits of companies and enterprises are reduced and incomes have fallen sharply, and the federal budget became scarce. In other words, all three major sources of regional income strongly "became shallow." In your opinion, can we expect in the next year or two, some appreciable growth of these revenues to the treasury region? If yes, then - on any of the three?- According to our current forecast for 2016, we expect nominal growth of tax revenues in all regions of approximately 5%. But in real terms (ie adjusted for inflation - MS) are reduced.According to income tax. Unexpectedly for most observers, its revenues have increased due to the fact that many exporting companies in the past year have benefited from the weakening of the ruble. That is, in the whole country, these revenues increased by 10%. But this year, of course, the effect of the devaluation of the ruble will be exhausted. Therefore, we expect revenues in nominal terms in the form of income tax in the same amount as last year if not even fall. That is an increase here of the question, even in nominal terms.Proceeds of the tax on personal income is likely to rise again in nominal terms - the real wage in the country are reduced, of course, but the ratings still growing. Last year, they rose by a few percent, and in the 2012th, we expect further growth. In particular - due to the fact that the state will continue, although at a slower pace, increase the salaries of state employees, especially considering the upcoming parliamentary elections this year.With regard to transfers. This question is difficult to answer unequivocally at the beginning of the year. For several years, the Russian government plans a reduction of inter-budget transfers to the regions, but in fact the end of the year each time it turned out that the Ministry of Finance is something added, so that overall, in nominal terms the amount of this aid is generally consistent with last year. In the end, it turns out that the regions and tax revenues will stagnate, and transfers to the federal treasury will not grow.Debt obligations of Russian regions is very short! Therefore, they have to send each year to pay off the debt of about 10% of their income. By international standards, it is - a lot!That is, the regions, in fact, no choice - either to cut costs or, as yet, they are "optimized" or even more to increase its accumulated debt? From your observations, for some items of expenditure, most Russian regions now prefer to save in the first place? And how, in principle, still remains great potential for such a reduction?- From what we hear and see when we go by region and communicate with regional and municipal authorities, we understand that the first and the key source of cost optimization - investment program. This construction or major repairs, that can be a relatively painless to move to a later date, or not to begin until all. According to our estimates, this source of "flexibility" costs, by and large, has been exhausted. In many regions of the investment program is reduced to a minimum, which is defined by the legislation: the regions are obliged to form their budgets road funds. Therefore, all capital costs are reduced and are now in the regions only to the costs of the road network of any other capital expenditures out of the question. Is that the two capitals and the more industrialized regions, can be, there is still a source of some capital spending, but it is small.The second source - the content of public institutions, as well as various types of procurement, current repairs, transport any cost ... Here, too, in many poor regions are practically no reserves.The third source, which we have heard more and more often in 2015 - increasing accounts payable. When regions receive goods or services, but do not pay their suppliers. This, by the way, the practice is still '90s when, for lack of money, the regions did not pay for the invoice to the, including - accumulating accounts payable to power companies and other major suppliers. Now, in many regions of the newly accumulated already a considerable amount of overdue payables. And at some point the problem will require a permit. Therefore, we also expect additional pressure on the expenditure of the regional budget.But in general I would say that the regions are already coming to a certain limit, when without any major costs, both financial and political, to further reduce costs is no longer possible.Accordingly, the volume of the regional budget deficit will also be significant. Also it is necessary to build up debt to finance them. Therefore, in 2018 we expect an increase in the total debt burden of Russian regions almost doubled.In 2014, 40% of the total debt of Russian regions accounted for bank loans, and another 25% - on the bonds issued by them. But in the same year, the federal government began to allocate their money to refinance debts to the banks. For this region receives from the Treasury new loans, but - the minimum interest rate, when compared with the bank, and on a much longer time. Since then, it took almost two years. As during this time it changed the structure of the regional debt?- Providing budget loans - perhaps the most significant change in the policy of the federal budget with respect to the region in the past two years. We are talking about sums of more than 300 billion rubles a year. In late 2013 - early 2014 has come to understand that many regions have accumulated very large, and at the same time - a short, bank debt. And in fact, they fall into a pyramid scheme, that is, must involve every time more and more new bank loans to pay off debts already accumulated. To resolve this issue and have become a regional budget loans. And their share in the total debt of the regions has grown significantly over the past two years. As of January 1, 2016, it was approximately 35%. But still most of the regions total debt accounts for bank loans, slightly more than 40%, and bonds - a little less than 20%.According to our estimates, the number of regions in which the debt by 2018 would be more than 60% of revenue, may exceed 70% of all Russian regions.Judging by your latest projections, despite all the "replacement" loans from the federal treasury (and in its present state of their much more clearly will not), namely bank loans and will remain in the coming years the main source of new borrowing for the regions. Why? Compared to bonds, they are available? (Especially because 85% of these loans there are only two state banks - Sberbank and VTB). And because, unlike loans from the federal treasury, they do not involve new obligations and stringent regional authorities?- On the one hand, budgetary loans, of course, attractive. The interest rate on them is very low - less than 1%, this does not offer any bank. However, the budgetary credits available under the treasury certain requirements: the regions should make a commitment to reduce the budget deficit and the regional and accumulated debt. However, as we have seen in the past year, the regions violate the agreement with the Ministry of Finance, and ... nothing happens! That is, any sanctions - at least serious - we have not yet seen. From this we can conclude that, probably, the procedure for providing budget loans a little more liberal than those of commercial banks.In regions dominated by the credit market really "Savings" and VTB. But last year, we have seen that in some areas they have just not come. That is, the banks consider that the credit risk in these areas is so high that they simply are not ready to give them new loans. In this sense, these regions are based on the willingness and capacity of the federal center to provide them with cheap low cost loans.But - in comparison with bonds, which may produce regional or municipal authorities?











  
------------------------------------------Russia will benefit from US government debt"Withdraw" US government bonds at any timeRussia continues to invest free funds in US government debt. During January 2016 the volume of investments increased by $ 4.8 billion, and in the amount of US Treasury securities in the total portfolio of Russia's international reserves accumulated already at $ 96.9 billion. This fiscal policy is of great confusion and State Duma deputies and simple inhabitants. Especially - on the background of the catechumens the Ministry of Finance plans to place Eurobonds in the foreign market for $ 3 billion.
Guide Bank of Russia has repeatedly been criticized for "promiscuity" in investing available funds. Thus, the LDPR faction in the State Duma in February, said the purchase of US securities Central Bank supports the US economy rather than send the money to the anti-crisis measures. And the Communists proposed to the government to spend the "extra" money to pay off the state debt of the Russian Federation.Why, they ask, to borrow money in the West, if we have free financial resources that we give credit to the West by buying US government bonds? Is not it better to use this money for the purposes for which and would occupy, nteresuyutsya inhabitants.In addition, Russian debt cost will be much higher than the rate of return, which will be received by the Central Bank purchases of US bonds, experts pointed out. The Ministry of Finance is ready to pay the holders of Eurobonds of the order of 4.25 - 4.75% per annum, while the owners of similar US securities may count only now 1.97% per annum. "That is, in fact, we lose on a trade of about 2% per year", - confirmed the correspondent of "Morning" Head of analytical department of the bank BKF Maxim Osadchy.But the Ministry of Finance, which is going to place Eurobonds, he said, their tasks, and the Central Bank, which manages the international reserves - its. "As in the fable" The Swan, cancer and pike "," - he joked Osadchy.In fact, each of these actions - and the placement of Russian Eurobonds in the West, and the acquisition of Western bond - pursues its goals, said a leading analyst of MFX Broker Artem Zviagilskiy. Gosbligatsii US - the most common tools of formation of foreign exchange reserves in the world. They are denominated in the base currency of international settlements, have high reliability and liquidity. That is, they can be sold at any time if you need money, he said."According to the criterion of reliability - US government bond yields better to accommodate large reserves are hard to find", - confirmed the Associate Professor of the stock markets and financial engineering of the Faculty of Finance and Banking of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration Sergey Hestanov. And given the global trend growth relative to other currencies, the dollar, buying US bonds - completely reasonable step, said leading specialist recruitment and allocation of resources for the company "Alor Broker" Paul Khoroshilov.As for the attempt to implement the Ministry of Finance a loan in the foreign market, the experts do not attribute this step to lack of funds in the Russian budget. The fact that each placement of Eurobonds any country closely monitors the international capital markets. Investors estimate, with a yield housed state, and this figure is then a reference for the issue of bonds of commercial companies in the country, said Zviagilskiy.Russia in 2014 - 2015 gg. not to place Eurobonds, as a result, the markets did not have benchmarks, and Russian companies, not even under the sanctions, too, did not dare to borrow money in the West. "By placing in 2016 the government would act as a sort of icebreaker that would cut through the road to the western capital markets for domestic business", - the analyst said.The true purpose of the loan is forthcoming in an effort to unfreeze the credit markets are not only for the state and the state budget deficit financing, as private companies in Russia, confirmed Sergey Hestanov. If the Ministry of Finance will be able to place eurobonds is much easier to obtain large Russian issuers of credit lines.At the same time, he said, the loss due to the difference in yields of domestic and US government bonds for the Russian budget quite critical. The fact that the total size of the Russian currency debt exceeds $ 80 billion, and against this background that $ 3 billion looks very modest."In principle, we think nothing to repay the whole debt - Russia's international reserves, even if we take only those held by the Central Bank, many times greater than its size, - the expert RANHiGS notes -. But the lack of debt with a positive credit history much more difficult exit state on the outer capital markets, if such a problem arise suddenly really seriously. Therefore, preferable to have a remnant, moreover, that payment on this debt is vanishingly small compared with other types of budgetary expenditures. "Igor YURYEV3:08, 03.17.2016

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