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понедельник, 28 марта 2016 г.

On the conformity of actual and projected inflation

Ulyukayev expects to return in 2017 to the actual inflation indexation of pensions
March 24 19:26
At the same time, according to the minister, the indexation should be guided not inflation last year, while waiting for inflation in future periods.
Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev expects that in 2017 pensions will be indexed on actual inflation. "It is likely that next year we will return to the standard indexing on actual inflation. If you not ask me, I think I have it right, I'll tell you what does not. Still, the indexation should be guided not by the fact of inflation last year, while waiting for inflation future period that we were not an inflationary spiral ", - the minister said at a business breakfast in" Rossiyskaya Gazeta "the full version of which will be published in the March 25 issue.

 More on TASS:----------------------On the conformity of actual and projected inflationIt will be difficult first six months, then get used to itNabiullina: annual inflation in Russia may reach 5,8-6,1% by mid-year14.02.2014, 16:03 | "Times"Annual inflation in Russia may reach 5,8-6,1% by the middle of this year, but it will happen after slowing to 5% by the end of the year from the current level of 6.1%, reports RIA "Novosti" with reference to the statement by the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina."We proceed from the fact that inflation in the first half of the year will be between 5,8-6,1%, by the end of the year will reach 5%," - said Nabiullina.According to the Central Bank, as of February 10 this year, inflation was 6.1% in annual terms. In 2013, prices rose by 6.5%. Economic Development Ministry official inflation forecast for 2014 is 4.5-5.5% with a reference point of 4.8%, but due to the weakening of the ruble is possible adjustment to 5.2-5.3%.Central Bank also believes that the ruble is undervalued given the state of the course of current operations.-------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------The Bank of Russia is not involved in the growth of prices, because it is not the ruble falls, and food prices are rising.

Invincible and uncontrolled inflation
Inflation in Russia exceeded the two per cent from the beginning of the yearPrices in Russia increased by 2.1 percent since the beginning of the year. This is stated in the official press release Rosstat.According to Rosstat, in a week from 9 to 15 February 2010 inflation was 0.2 percent in the country, and from the beginning of the month - 0.4 percent. A year earlier, the overall price increase for February was 1.7 percent.In the second decade of February 2010 in Russia have risen in price most of all vegetables - by 1.3 percent. Buckwheat, cheese, dairy products rose in price by 1,1-2,6 percent. Pork, pasta, chicken and wheat flour, by contrast, fell by 0.1-0.3 percent.According to government forecasts inflation in Russia will amount to 6.5-7.5 percent in 2010. In 2009, the rise in prices in the country amounted to 8.8 percent, significantly down compared with 2008 (13.3 per cent). The reason was the crisis severely reduced the demand for many commodities.February 16, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised that in the next few years Russia will be able to enter the European figures for inflation - by 3-5 percent. In 2009, EU countries, prices rose on average by 1.4 per cent.
When you read statements by members of the government and Ministry of Finance officials on the fight against inflation, it can not escape the feeling of running on the spot. They are all struggling, doing "enormous" effort, and inflation all upsets and overturns their forecasts.Judge for yourself.In early 2006, "Vedomosti" we read in the newspaper:"The government can not keep inflation within the planned framework. In the first half of February, prices rose by 0, 8%, and by the end of the month, inflation could reach 1, 2%, economists predict. According to ambitious Economic Development Ministry forecast a rise in prices in 2006 should not 7 exceed 5-8%. But the January statistics put this task into question ... In the first two weeks of February, inflation was 0, 8%, said yesterday the Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov. In February last year, prices rose by 1, 2 %.According to data released by the Ministry of Economic Development, in February, inflation could reach 1.3-1.5%, and by the end of the first two months of the year - already 3.9%. It seems that the 9 per cent annual rise in prices strap, set in the budget as the maximum possible, will overcome much earlier period.Seeing that the situation goes out of control, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has already accused the government of carrying out a weak fiscal policy. In response, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov accuses the Ministry of Finance chapter in excess of saving money that are "desperately needed in the energy sector." "And there is no smell of inflation", - said the head of government.

"When the government approves the budget for the current year (2006) we were promised to keep inflation in tight rein. And do not give her a break for 8, 5% for the whole year 2006. Moreover, puffing out his cheeks, officials said that they are quite capable . by 2008 to drive it into the framework of 3 - 4% Alas, it took only two months, and stubborn inflation wiped her nose with our financial authorities: defeated half of their annual plan, "- wrote the correspondent of the newspaper" Komsomolskaya Pravda "Valery Bhutan.It took one and a half years, and we once again hear the power struggles with inflation, which successfully overcomes these unlucky fighters.Inflation, which so unsuccessfully, to "fight" the Ministry of Finance is not reduced. Second consecutive month prices are rising faster than in 2006, the Ministry of Finance and members of the government hastily looking for excuses price increases and the depreciation of the ruble, not wanting to look in the mirror.The Finance Ministry believes that the situation will help to correct the summer deflation, which depends on the harvest.
"The central bank could not take inflation from oil prices," writes "Gazeta"."... Responsible for the project of monetary policy yesterday had the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Ulyukayev. To soften the militant deputies, the first thing he told me how hard it is to work in the Central Bank forecasts inflation of 5.2% to the Central Bank.", And on the basis of year -. 8% within the Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank takes credit for the influx could be sterilized.One reason for its rapid growth, according to the Central Bank deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev, - a record inflow of capital. Money supply for the year, including in April, rose by 57.3%. For this growth of money supply the May inflation figures are quite low, says Oksana Osipova of the Development Centre, much more impact on inflation, the May increase in prices for fruit and vegetables - 7.8% (2.6% last year). "No one thought that the jump is so sharp," - says economist of the bank "Trust" Yevgeny Nadorshin. Non-food goods and paid services rose in price in May, moderate, but rising prices for building materials: cement - by 5.4%, on the brick - 4.6%. Officials still expect that inflation in 2007 runs out in 8% (it was 9% in 2006). The Finance Ministry believes that the situation will help to correct the summer deflation."Kommersant""The pace of price growth accelerated" (Alexey Shapovalov): "The government hopes that they will stop deflation Yesterday, Rosstat reported on the acceleration of inflation in May 2007, when the average price growth increased by 0.02% compared to 0.015% in May 2006.. Central Bank forecast the pace of convergence of prices with last year's growth. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin still hopes that inflationary government plan will be implemented in 2007, if the expectations of deflation materialize in the fall. "Our officials are constantly explaining the causes of inflation and rising prices, and if this is not the rise in oil prices, the influx of capital, unless the inflow of capital, the growth of salaries and so on. D., And so on. N.But who strive to achieve the desired result, he is looking for ways and who only indicates that is the explanation.

And the acute power crisis, the more evident discrepancy between the reality and the reflection of this reality in the media. This disparity has become so obvious that even loyal to the government newspaper "Izvestia" talked about it and published an article by Anne Kaledin "food prices are rising faster than inflation."When announce official data on inflation, it is nothing but bewilderment they not be indignant vyzyvayut.- Kaledin - We all go shopping and see the prices are going up. Purse empties all swiftly, and the "paper" inflation year-on-year falls. Very indicative in this sense was the last week. We were told that in June, prices rose by 1%. For the summer rate is high, but not fatal. But at the same time the cost of the minimum set of products increased by 4.8% in June, and since the beginning of the year - by 13.1%. That's the explanation of our bewilderment. ""For example, in June the cost of the minimum food basket has increased by almost 5 times more than inflation. Just to keep from starving Russians in June had to spend on food at least 1666.3 rubles (in Moscow - 2020.3 rubles). "Rebelled mendacity of official statistics, and telling readers how to find it difficult to live, even though they are well aware of this, Kaledin told that "the index" Big Mac "dollar should be worth 15 rubles."So what? Should, but not worth it. Here then Kaledin, and it would be necessary to try to understand the cause of this phenomenon. Who is interested in such a disparity value of the ruble, and who spins inflation and giving false figures? But she chose to act in the spirit of his newspaper - what I see, I sing, afraid to call a spade a spade.So what then indignant, since the truth and remain in Thun? And simply because to be silent about it, it is no longer tolerable.From 1 to 22 October, inflation in Russia amounted to 1.3%, from the beginning of the year prices rose by 8.9%, and now their growth for the year could exceed 10%, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin.To combat inflation, Kudrin recalled, used export and import duties. By Region was a wave of price fixing; the largest retail chains and manufacturers of frozen prices for six key products until 31 January. FAS filed in 17 regions of 40 cases. The measures have helped, says Kudrin: the second half of October in food prices slowed by half.But core inflation continues to accelerate. In September, it reached a record 1.6% in October, according to Kudrin estimated to grow by 1.5-2%.
Sheets05-05-2010 11:35:15Cheaper is notCentral Bank promises to inflation surgeEugene Arsyukhin

In the summer prices will go up, said on Thursday the Russian Central Bank. And while inflation is still low, the Central Bank wants to take advantage of the last chance to help Russian companies. Since April 30, the refinancing rate is again reduced, so that the plants will be cheaper loans. When the acceleration of inflation, will have to forget about these bounties.

If the crisis was some benefit, just in low inflation. What happened, what the government and the central bank have dreamed for many years. In 2008, prices rose by 13.3%, in 2009 - just 8.8%. Others grumble - it could be less, as in Europe or the United States. But everything is relative. The "fat zero" could only dream of similar options. Then monopolists at times inflated the prices of gasoline, then bread, then square meters living - and nothing but verbal condemnation for them it was not. People will still buy, they reasoned. And people were buying, because their incomes rose. Heated inflation and housing prices and "speculative" capital that rushed into the country, and ultimately - uncontrollably rising prices for oil and other raw materials.

But the crisis happened pattern: incomes fell, traders began to beware of cranking the numbers on the price tags for no reason. Now the recession is over, and on the horizon loomed a new "era of fat," but to get to it, will have to pay us with you.

On Thursday, the Central Bank Board of Directors lowered the refinancing rate, but promised that the second half of the year inflation in Russia will start to grow. Why the "but," What connection? The fact that the low rate of refinancing helps to take cheap loans.

Banks borrow from the Central Bank's refinancing rate and resell these businesses money with a wrap. The lower the base rate, and the lower end. But the thing is that the rate reduction is possible only in conditions of low inflation. While it is abnormally low, so the Central Bank decided to use the latter, probably could help the domestic industry.

The rate has been reduced from today until 8%. And this is the thirteenth decline in the last year. The report of the Central Bank said that in April remained favorable dynamics of the consumer price index, "which creates conditions for lower interest rates of the Bank of Russia." This is indeed the case. From 1 to 26 April, according to Rosstat, inflation was just 0.3%. This is nothing. In March, for the entire month accumulated 0.6% in April, therefore, would be even less.

If we calculate the annual inflation, the January rate it would have been 8.1%, and now - somewhere 6.5% or even less. Against this background, you can safely do borrowed money cheaper, and realized that the Central Bank.

But can begin inflation, the central bank warns in the second half. In the future, the Central Bank will still closely monitor the macroeconomic situation and, most importantly, to analyze how credit money affected the economy. The central bank did not go into the reasons for the possible growth of inflation in the future, although they are obvious. The crisis ended. In the pockets had money. The demand revives.

More precisely, begins revive. Income growth is already visible. Hot Shots say they have almost caught up to pre-crisis levels (although many do not agree with this). Another thing is that people spend money not yet ready - prefer to dig. According to data for the first quarter, the cost of buying growing twice slower than revenues. But for the time being. The state encourages consumption. For example, put forward the scrappage program. Summer vacation will complete the picture. People relax, withdraw their money from the deposit and will carry them in Megamall.

Here in this moment, retail chains and will increase the "cheat". All this passed more than once. Once people have money, traders are starting to shoot superprofits. The most immoral in this situation - that the state struggled increases incomes, pension increases, etc., but because of the greed of merchants lion's share of this increase is in the pockets of businessmen.

Price growth is already beginning to assert itself. During the first quarter rose by 12% utility services, well above the rate of inflation. The head of the column, of course, gasoline - this versatile precursor to change. Although he fell in the first quarter, he began to rise in price from the beginning of April. Here is the first confirmation of disappointing forecasts of the Central Bank.

Alexander Orlov, managing director of investment company "Arbat Capital":

- I think inflation will rise. Partly because of the next reduce the refinancing rate. But the main reason - Russia to finally reach the increased revenues from rising oil prices and gas. This will increase liquidity in the country. Which, of course, not a good sign, but also not the worst. The only thing that can prevent the growth of inflation - the collapse of the Greek economy. If Greece declares a default, it will be comparable to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Banks stop lending money to each other, the money supply will collapse. Plus, this will happen to oil prices. All this will lead to a reduction in the economy and the strong devaluation.

Igor Nikolaev, director of FBK Strategic Analysis Department:

- I think the Central Bank is right: inflation will accelerate. In fact, if the change in the exchange rate will be observed (the ruble would start to weaken, and the dollar strengthened), the Central Bank would be powerless. Increased refinancing rates will not save, they will have to be reduced, and this situation is very likely. All markets are speculatively overheated. When there are bubbles, they will sooner or later burst. My prediction is that by the end of the year the situation will look like at the end of 2008.

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