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понедельник, 28 марта 2016 г.

Under the leadership of the liberals we are waiting for a permanent crisis

We are waiting for creeping out of the crisis"Alexei Kudrin on how best to spend the savings of the common manAlexei Kudrin resigned as finance minister for more than four years ago, but still remains one of the key speakers in the field of politics and economy. March 19, he took part in the second All-Russian week of financial literacy for children and young people, held in the framework of the project "Assistance to improve the financial literacy of the population and the development of financial education in the Russian Federation", which the Ministry of Finance is implementing since 2011. Kudrin gave a public lesson of economic literacy of sixth graders of his native 17-th school in the city of Arkhangelsk, and "to Lenta.ru" used this as an excuse to ask Kudrin about the risk of devaluation, and about how in times of crisis to protect their savings are not businessmen, and ordinary citizen .

"To Lenta.ru": The dollar drops, the ruble and the oil rising. All exhaled - the crisis is over?Alexei Kudrin: The crisis comes. In early 2014, I said that it would be a full-blown crisis, but did not believe me. Everybody thought that we hit upon the bottom end of the first quarter of 2015, then - in mid-2015. Now it turned out that the whole year has passed in a fall, and at the beginning of this year, I said that the crisis has not been overcome. If oil prices remain low, from 35 to 40 dollars per barrel, and this year we will see the fall of the economy from 1.5 percent to two percent. We still go to the processes of slowing down: unemployment increases, and some branches falling even though the majority of industries, I think, has come to a stabilization at a low level. The crisis has not been overcome until the end. The second half of this year, next year - it will be soft, very slow, creeping out of the crisis.You gave pupils and students advice to keep their savings in three baskets: one-third in rubles, a third of the dollar, one-third of the euro. At the same time, we learned that a million - are too small to worry about. What is the sum of the common man to ask yourself the question, how to store money?If less than three million rubles savings, do not play these games. With savings less than three million rubles, it is possible to think only if you want the money to defer for a year, and preferably two - if you do not want to spend.Three million for the three baskets decompose - and forget about them for a couple of years?Basically so. Although favorable situation may arise before - in six months, then you might want to pass them. Oh, and if does not work out, then you'd better not to touch them.
And we invest in what?The safest - long-term deposits and bank bonds, or large public corporations. Currency bonds.Real Estate fall in price - the time to buy, sell or do nothing?You know, I'm not a real estate market experts, they behave very unpredictably in crisis. Perhaps we are now in the wake of blowing a bubble in real estate. He finally blew away or blown away - it is difficult to say. In theory, the right to start investing into this sphere, when the bubble podsdulsya or blown away. But economic growth is needed to start a new demand for real estate.Today, a lot of vacant property - such as office space. When will the economic growth - will first be filled with existing capacities, and only then begin to grow the demand for new ones. Therefore, in terms of investment in real estate the next two or three years will not be the best period.You talked about the fact that the structural crisis. As an ordinary person to reduce the influence of these factors on their lives?From the government's point of view - is to increase the retirement age, and it touches everyone. And if we talk about their own individual strategy, in this kind of crisis it is better to learn new skills, poduchivatsya something or improve their qualifications as part of their profession. We must at all times keep at the level of more competitive than the average. Education - the main anti-crisis measure.That is, if I have savings of 200-300 million - it is better not to play with the bi-currency basket, and put them in training?In education - yes, this is a very good solution.Will the new devaluation of the ruble?
What will happen to Russia when oil runsWe have factors that will push the devaluation. Firstly, this is a big budget deficit. The state will sell its Central Bank reserve funds, which are now concentrated in the form of currency in bank accounts; Central Bank will print money and buy back the currency reserves of the government. Thus the central bank will add money into the economy. In the present circumstances this can lead to further devaluation, but the central bank will monitor for this and try to reduce the money supply through other channels, including the lending banks. It's not the most pleasant balance - to increase money through one channel and out through the usual classical channel. This we have already happened. But most importantly - if the amount of involvement of the reserves will be large, large amount of money will be given to the economy, and it will contribute to the devaluation. In this regard, a high budget deficit is a factor further devaluation of the ruble, that is, the deficit is necessary for at least three to four years to reduce.This means the new budget sequestration?Or a tax increase, which, of course, does not have a positive effect on growth.Give the forecast, how much will it cost the ruble by the end of the year?I do not venture. I do not want to excite consciousness.What is more like the crisis - at the 1998 th, 2008 th or maybe the 1989-th?In it there is something from 1998, but only some of the features - the devaluation. However, we are far from the problems of default. We have a low debt burden. By lowering household incomes closer to the crisis of 1998 mu. But what distinguishes it from 1998 and do close by 2008 - a more mature economy. In 1998, we were still immature market economy. Now we can say that the basis of the market economy in Russia is built, high flexibility of enterprise response to market indicators.
Who feels that the investment will be reliable, - to invest who feel excessive costs - reduces them. In particular this applies to labor costs. Where components imported expensive, companies immediately cut production, as the automotive industry. Flexible rate mitigates some of the implications for the economy, that is, makes faster to get used to the new conditions. The flexibility of the economy, its market-oriented to facilitate its adaptation to any external risks - as oil prices and sanctions. In this sense, the crisis is not similar to others, and I hope that it will soon enter the stabilization and subsequent growth.But necessary, as you said, structural changes.Structural changes will occur to some extent on the fact: the structure of the economy will be more engaged in new services, they will feel the new prices, the new drive. This will automatically take place, not on the government's decision. Although what we have come to a crisis - it's just a lack of timely progress in this direction.If you happen to sanctions relief, positive changes in the economy will be faster?Not fast, but gradually. Within three or four years, we need to recover - but we do not fully restore - the trust that has been before. Togo flow of investments and new companies will not be, but in general, this process will begin. It will be slow, but it will.The effect of the product of the embargo can be estimated - a plus or a minus?This is a difficult question: is the official position that a plus, and we can really see the growth of certain industries. But really what we got higher inflation, that we the living standards fell - is at a loss. But the main disadvantage is not the point, but the fact that the modern economy in the world competing institutions quality, rules of the game established practice. People should not just obey the law, but to be more effective. Practice efficiency - is a complicated thing, it is grown.When the government suddenly changes the rules of the game, including foreign trade, it undermines those institutions, they become less effective. This is a great danger. We can not create stability of the enterprise perspective. Why the Turkish case so painful? The whole region is close to us and the level of trade, was suddenly expelled from the many elements of our trade. And we are still vulnerable to the fact that this can happen even with someone if that someone quarrel with Russia. This is a very big risk for the Russian economy.With Turkey, what to do now - back to put up?Initially, it was not necessary to go to such economic sanctions, it was necessary to restrict diplomatic showdown, it is tough, clear and sensitive, which would be less affected business. After all, when we restrict trade - we beat business on both sides, according to the Russian, too. And now, when everything has already happened ...I have always said that it is necessary a certain logic to adhere to the policy. If the leadership has chosen this policy - we must pursue this policy until conditions change. What has happened, has happened, it is hard to establish a connection. We need a new round of rapprochement, which would have had under a clear base. Do not be shy.Alexei Leonidovich, this year's election, and you led the Committee of Civil Initiatives (OIG) issued a mass of initiatives that could form an excellent electoral program. Will the Committee to participate in the elections?We have clearly decided last year that we do not participate in the electoral processes, with the exception of the objective of the expert monitoring of elections. We ourselves do not participate in the writing of programs, either in support of individual members. We try to maintain an objective outside perspective on the electoral system in the country.Nevertheless, it is known that some members are going to the polls, in particular - the single-seat districts.We have had such cases when even in the Moscow City Duma, some of our members have tried to advance - for example, Nechayev (Andrei Nechayev - economy minister in 1992-1993, was nominated in 2014 MHD, but not collected signatures, in his district defeated Zyuganov Leonid , the grandson of the leader of the Communist Party - a comment "Lenta.ru").. But he was also the head of the party "Civil Initiative". As personal as everyone has the right to participate in the proceedings of any party to participate in any activities of the party, but it is not OIG activities. We as an organization do not participate in the elections. Moreover, we have people from different parties with different political views. We all say our work - a collaborative community projects that attract people from different political spectrums, we are working on a bipartisan basis, do business, beneficial for all. We tried to distance himself from association with a particular political platform, it would prevent our development as the OIG.Alexei Kudrin during a conference of the Committee of Civil InitiativesPhoto: Yuri Martianov / "Kommersant"That is, the extension of both the Communist Party and the "United Russia" is not ordered for your members?No, it's their own business.How do you assess the new party project business ombudsman Boris Titov? (Titov will head the election "just cause" - a comment "Lenta.ru.").I would not like to comment on it. I still do not understand some of his goals.You seem to be on the same field - you are for the development of the economy, it is - for a small business ...In general, I support those projects that support the business, but it must be done carefully, too, so I do not speak. Did not want to comment on, let's see.Is there a risk in these elections left revenge - because of the crisis?"Leftward shift" of the ruling party has been going for a long time. I once allowed myself to say that it has evolved from the center-right to center-left. In this sense, it is any left turn.And it was said that the EP - the only party that goes to the polls with the liberal agenda.The economic part of the work of the government and the president - we can say, the program rather centrists, but not liberals. There are many moderate liberals, but in general, of course, they are linked by a common president and government policy. And even if the individual blocks of executive power are in their political views Center Right, the overall course of the party - the center-left. This once again shows that we have the party in power can not measure the yardstick of the Party.Alexei Kudrin and Boris TitovPhoto: Dmitry Lekay / "Kommersant"I think it is rather a community that is built in a hierarchical manner, with enough compressed self-activity, or the feedback system. This is not a party in the fullest sense, and not a purely bureaucratic hierarchy. This kind of public education.What you currently have a relationship with the "United Russia"?I have it there is no relationship.Are you ahead of the elections was not invited to any party?Not invited, because I had already announced he would not enter into any party. At the end of last year, I made some statements that I do not participate in the political cycle in the political struggle, do not enter into any party and will not support any party.And at the end of this cycle - after the September 18 elections?I do not comment on this issue.Last question: speaking at the school, you remember how after the eighth grade the first money earned on labor practices. And how many there were and where you are they invested?I gave them to his mother. Perhaps it was the contribution to the common expenses of the family. I was proud that his first salary given, but how we use it - do not remember.Interviewed by Natalia Rozhkova
topical archiveFrom the best to the best finance minister the head of the CBR from bad to worseNabiullina presented an award as the best head of the Central BankChairman of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina presented the award Euromoney magazine as the best leader among central bankers in 2015, RIA Novosti reported.The award ceremony was held at the Bankers Lima, Peru, at the annual meeting of the Board of Governors of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. At the award ceremony, Elvira Nabiullina said that the award is a great honor for her, and thanked the experts of the magazine "for the support of our colleagues in Russia and abroad in this difficult time."
Recall, the British specialist magazine Euromoney recognized Elvira Nabiullina best among central bankers for the successful opposition of "macroeconomic storm" in Russia, caused by the decline in oil prices and sanctions.Source: polit.ru
Money (any price)
A branch from the forum site "Derbent Wall"
KlarkRegistered: 28.10.2005Posts: 76Posted: Tue November 15, 2005 12:45 pm Today there is no sense to argue about money at all, since this issue has long been resolved. As Marx pointed out correctly, citing statements of Gladstone, that even love is not made so many stupid people, how much sophistication about the nature of money.In classical economics has considered this question in detail. But it makes sense to analyze the role of money and the conversion depending on the specific relations existing in a given system. As the reader might notice the site, in the work of Glukhov and V. Petukhov, "The general theory of labor value", considered in some detail the nature of money in terms of the state monopoly, and how modified their role, depending on changes in property relations.Even more important, at the moment, it is the analysis of the ruling circles in handling money. If you noticed, dear Firmer, and if you follow the statements of the ruling cabinet, then you must remember the recent statements by Mr Kudrin and Gref, who promised in 2007 to make the ruble convertible. The response to this statement was the article "Forewarned is forearmed", which is not ambiguous shown that this scam will cost the country. And just yesterday, the head of the Central Bank Sergey Ignatyev, on its approval in the Duma, said the Bank of Russia will be able to let the ruble "in free floating" only after 3-5 years. Who, I ask, is right? Those who advocate a more balanced and responsible position with Gref and Kudrin, Ignatyev? And also the fact that pursue certain figures, making such statements? And how does this affect us? By answering these questions, you will be able to act more appropriately and carefully, and do not act by chance. I hope that this and you are aiming for.Sincerely, Klark.

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