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вторник, 15 марта 2016 г.

Oligarchy comes to plunder and not to finance

 Our country is sorely under-investment, and virtually in all spheres2016.03.11, Free PressToday we met with the famous Russian economist, doctor of economic sciences, director of the Institute of Globalization Problems Mikhail Delyagin.What will happen to the ruble and why the Central Bank of Russia is fundamentally wrong, as we live through the next two years, and what will come as a result of Russia, which is a measure of happiness and what will be the man of the future - it is only a small part of the disclosed Mikhail issues.The price of oil

"SP": - Michael recently was the news about the initiative of the Ministry of Finance that after 2018 when the oil price above $ 50 per barrel from the sale proceeds will be credited to the reserve fund. "If the oil price of 40-50 dollars per barrel, the budget must make savings, and the government should start buying foreign assets," - said the deputy head of the initiative are the Ministry of Finance Maxim Oreshkin. How do you like this idea?- This initiative is in the style of Nasreddin Hodja, who promised the emir learned of his ass to read for 20 years: during this time, "or the donkey will die, or I die or emir." "After 2018" Time seems to be very soon, but, from the point of view of today's economic dynamics, it is infinitely far away. By the end of 2018 we either fell into turmoil, or improve the state and will be on the approach to quality improvement. Thus, the Ministry of Finance is engaged in fortune-telling on the "oil" thick.It is not the task of the country's development. And investing excess money on current expenditure in foreign assets, namely in the US securities and other strna leading anti-Russian "Cold War" in the destruction of this, in my view - and did the crime. Today Russian citizens die an official diagnosis of "budgetary constraints", and the Ministry of Finance directs these funds to pointless speculation. On February 1, 2016 unused balances on the accounts of the federal budget amounted to 10.2 trillion rubles. This is a huge amount of money, which lies motionless and could allow Russia to build anew. In my opinion, it is a crime.Accumulating budgetary reserves may be a developed country, any Norway where everything is in order with the infrastructure, social guarantees, security and technology. And our country is catastrophic nedoinvestirovana, and in almost all spheres. Here now was in Omsk - there is the road not only broken, they are also covered with a layer of mud. A real priority of the Liberal government Medvedevayavlyaetsya financial support openly hostile to Russia the US and the eurozone countries! Dvorkovich once he said that Russia must pay for US financial stability. My question - and this is indeed the Government of the Russian Federation ?! Maybe it's the younger managers of US Treasury and the State Department, which is working on the "udalenke" and outsourcing and for which substantial progress promised in the central office ?! "SP": - You have always said that as soon as the money comes, they should immediately invest. "Money should work" - your catchphrase.- Not mine, it is the cornerstone. All should work: both people and money. Including state money. Remember: in the late '90s, when the campaign for the payment of taxes, all hung posters in the style of "your taxes - a school", "your taxes - it is a hospital," "your taxes - it's expensive." I even agree on the poster "Your taxes - a salary FSBeshnikov" ... And now, what to write on these posters? "Your taxes - it is the welfare of the American army, which kills people and supports terrorists"? "Your taxes - is the success of those who want to kill you?" It turns out so."SP": - What can replace the agenda, "the price of oil" in the world? In Russia?- We have a lot of that in Soviet times was called "reserves", not to talk about the shortcomings. Correcting these deficiencies could more than offset the drop in world oil prices.It can be a long debate about what is necessary to reduce budget costs, but if it was lying motionless 10.2 trillion rubles in the first place it is necessary to sequester idiots. Of this amount, 3.7 trillion rubles. lie in the Reserve Fund, 5.3 trillion - in the National Welfare Fund (NWF) and 1.2 trillion rubles. simply is on the budget. And not all the SWF is embedded in Western securities; almost US $ 6.3 billion., and more than 195 billion rubles. its funds are deposited with Vnesheconombank and perverted forms that support not only the right projects, and bank spreads in the Russian economy. Sometimes spend "capitalization" of a structure. Vnesheconombank may directly support the project, but it is very difficult and it is unlikely it should not count.After sequestering idiots (or conscious pests, others simply are not given) it is necessary to limit corruption, including its aliases - wasteful spending, misuse of funds and so on. Limitation of corruption at least to the level of Italy will give us a little second budget. And the Audit Chamber said that, for example, in the reconstruction of BAM inflated costs on certain items by 35-40% - and no one even reacts. APEC Summit 2012, Sochi, the other image projects have taught the organizers of systemic corruption, in contrast to the performers and "scapegoats" in almost complete impunity.On the fall of the ruble"SP": - The question of a short, but very important. How to stabilize the exchange rate?- Limit the speculation. The constitutional duties of Bank of Russia is to ensure stability of the national currency. It is clear that it is meant to "do everything possible to ensure that" since there are situations when it is impossible to maintain stability. But to do everything for her - the main function of the Bank of Russia.According to internationally recognized criteria Reddy to ensure stability of the currency enough international reserves equal to the sum of the quarterly imports of goods and services and all the annual payments of the external debt (public and private, of principal and interest). All the time the devaluation, with the January 2014 international reserves of the Russian Federation and a half to two times higher than the criterion Reddy, - that is, our reserves are excessive! And we have so much money that you can guarantee the stability of the ruble on almost every level, while at least 150 billion dollars will be on the development of the Russian economy.However, international reserves - not only money the Bank of Russia, Ministry of Finance and foreign exchange reserves. At the beginning of the year Reddy criterion - 165.3 billion dollars. International reserves of the Russian Federation were then 368 and now exceed 379 billion dollars. That is, you can safely send USD 200 billion in the development of the country - and this in a completely open economy. But in fact, you can send more if not to make the meaning of the existence of the state to ensure freedom of speculation. All developed countries which had our level of maturity of the financial system, limiting speculation engaged primarily currency.A simple example: in the framework of modernization can finance the construction of the barn, but the owner scrolls money in the currency market and the barn instead build a little house in Switzerland, incidentally collapse of the national currency. The country will be left without money and without the barn, but with inflation, destabilization, falling living standards and rising external debt burden. Therefore, the movement of speculative capital should be limited. Those who did not do it, just do not become developed.Limit speculative capital can be a variety of ways. US banks are strictly divided on working with the public and the real sector and engaged in financial speculation. This distinction was abolished only in 1999. Japan has until 2000 to control the structure of banks' assets, Europe is engaged in a direct currency regulation.The Bank of Russia categorically does not want to do any of this. Firstly, this is contrary to the interests of the global businesses, which are the liberals, including those in power, and which is basically a speculative business. Secondly, contrary to the ideology of liberalism, as the government recognizes its responsibility to society and intervenes in the economy. Thirdly, it is responsible for the exchange rate - and always a lot of unhappy both high and low rates. And always a lot of unhappy or low rate or a high rate. Fourth, the Bank of Russia, in my opinion, is interested in speculation as part of insider trading. Fluctuations in the currency market at the end of October 2014 simply can not be otherwise explained. Of course, anything can happen, but in any case had to be investigated - but not reported about it. A lack of investigation means that it is not a crime, but the norm."SP": - Who did?- I do not know, but it seems that those who are in the Bank of Russia took obviously the wrong decision to raise interest rates. And those who have the day before in the currency market reacted as if they knew about the increase of the interest rate."SP": - What will happen to the ruble? What's to keep their savings? Is defaulted Coming?- In the near future exchange rate will be a bit stronger, because there is no rubles. It will last until the election, although I would have devalued the summer: the smallest social consequences of the summer. If the liberal clan, who runs the Russian economy, interested in political instability, it can make the devaluation just to complicate the election.But the strengthening of the ruble in any case will be inconsistent and slow and replaced by a new devaluation."SP": - how to live for Fall?- If there is no devaluation of the spring and summer, it will fall. Perhaps after the election. The fall of the ruble in an environment where we are dependent on imports, to increase prices, the trade monopoly zaderut prices and neimportnye products. Rare imported goods may disappear from the shelves, including medications. This is the critical thing. And it's the only thing to do reserves has meaning in the big cities.About the production of lending in Russia and the state support"SP": - We often hear in the news that now the industry receive subsidies from the state. Is everything being done right? And as subsidies from the state is consistent with the current barbaric loans? It would not end up Russian golden rule: "We wanted the best, but it turned out ..."?- First of all, the enterprises, which are still, qualify for significant assistance can not. They are available one billion rubles, no more, and the majority of tech companies are worth more because they have to import equipment. More than a billion may be requested only at Vnesheconombank, but the "success stories" I do not know, and in any case no mass. In addition, mainly supported by the banks - in the form of subsidies of the interest rate, that is, in fact, the bank profits. And this support without restructuring, without a sharp increase in efficiency, it supports what is there, but does not normally print development to a new level.For example, in agriculture we all complain about the WTO limits, but they do not apply to infrastructure. Lord, make normal road to the village! Make the normal power lines, water supply! WTO does not limit you, you have your hands free! All this is thrown off to the level of the governors, and the state does gasification, and it is not very intense. And governors have no money and, if the region or energoizbytochen energy shortage, then, believe me, the governor of this is irrelevant."SP": - How to develop a reasonable production in Russia? Which sectors should be a priority of development - First of all, it is necessary to modernize infrastructure. The first line of the Trans-Siberian has paid off in 50 years in terms of the railroad. And for the country Transsiberian paid off in the first ten years, and from a military point of view - in the first year of operation.The infrastructures should not be treated with the accounting point of view, from the point of view of the economy companies: so she - the exclusive sphere of responsibility of the state. Of course, the point needed investment, and that is the lot of specialists. For example, today is not performed manganese in Russia, we are importing. The price of the new plant - 4 billion rubles, payback, depending on the situation 5-8 years. But the money for the project people can not get. And we continue to import 80% of manganese from China, and 20% - from the Ukraine. We need a commission of scientists who will determine what must be done in Russia and what the company should be created now.Then it is necessary to make sure that the money allocated for something, not stolen. It is necessary to fight corruption. Yes, it is stealing, and under Stalin, the only question is how much they steal.Next you need to limit the arbitrariness of monopolies. In May 2006, President Putinpublichno amazed the price of milk: the purchase price then fell from 12 rubles to six, and retail has increased from 23 to 26 rubles. Since then, the situation has not changed. Monopoly is a total character. As one oil baron said, as oil prices dropped as much as 3.5 times, more expensive gasoline in Russia no more than 10 percent.It is necessary to ensure a reasonable and protectionism at the state level. Here we have made a gift to sanctions, God forbid, they will be canceled.Since sanctions yet in a year may be canceled, it is necessary to withdraw from the WTO. This is simply because any contract with the motivation of corruption under international law is void. Knowing the people who were involved in the accession of Russia to the WTO, I believe, prove that corruption component will not be difficult.Further, for the country's development needs the motivation to work. It is necessary to give people a good education, free medical care, ensure a living wage.This basic.Of course, this weight is applied in all: tax-exempt non-speculative small, and the Urals - and medium-sized businesses, the transfer of vacant agricultural land ready to handle their normalization. The regressive scale of wage taxation assessed contributions and taxes should be replaced by a progressive. Today we have with the poor income assessed contributions shoot 30%, with secured - 10%, while the rich can wriggle out and not pay anything. And the world is flat scale of progressive tax in Russia and Bolivia.They say that the progressive tax system will lead to capital flight. But we regularly capital flees to France, where your property is worth any more than a few hundred thousand euros are subject to separate taxation. And yet, people are taken to their capital. Stability more progressive scale. So do not tell us stories!Investments: foreign and domestic. How to keep the balance?"SP": - Foreign investment - a blessing or a mountain?-Inostrannye Investment will never solve the problems of a large economy. They can solve the problem of the economy, such as Costa Rica. In China, foreign investment, which has bet Dan, were Chinese. In most economies investments are only for domestic investment, and only as a "side dish". However, they are dangerous, because it is outside political influence. The fact that this effect can not be public, and private, does not affect its potential political.Well-known economist Michael Hutson and Paul Craig Roberts have clearly stated that the current phase of privatization may lead to the loss of political sovereignty of Russia. If the foreign investor controls the key companies of the country, it controls and the country itself. And who is there "dancing" as president - a few people care about. The state can retain a controlling stake - to block the activity of the corporation can be, with a package of 25% plus one share."SP": - But there is also the country where the foreign investment they rule ...- This is a small country like Georgia, Costa Rica, Moldova, lumps Soviet Baltic states and so on. For example, Germany has not sold us Opel, although there was no sophisticated technology. US will not let us in the steel industry, and there is a rule that any large foreign investment is approved by a special commission. And when the "Lukoil" bought refueling in the US, it is also frowned upon by a special commission.This mechanism exists in Russia, but it works poorly.On the economic course in Russia"SP": - Ulyukayev informed about passing the "bottom" of the crisis in Russia in the summer of 2015. Is it so? whether the experts are right? What is your forecast for the next 5 years for Russia? (2016-2021 year)?- The bottom of the crisis we have not passed. It seems that the Minister specifically looking for the bottom of the crisis, to jump on it and ruin Russian economy even further.This year will remain very poor, but stability. In 2017, at the latest in 2018, we Tear in the Troubles. Unless, of course, does not change the socio-economic policies.Russia is waiting for a great future, but this is not all survive.Feudal society in Russia: myth or reality 20-ies of the 21st century?"SP": - In Russia, stifle small and medium businesses. Development projects get people close to the government. Thus, we come to the creation of feudalism. Because there is no equal rights. Some manage other. Do you agree with this statement?- Well, absolutely equal rights in practice and there is no socialism, let alone capitalism, so it's not a sign.

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