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среда, 11 мая 2016 г.

About inflation, rising prices and rates

May 5, 2016Inflation in April slowed to 0.4%, remained 7.3% in annual terms
Inflation in Russia in April was 0.4%, in annual terms - 7.3%, Rosstat data show. Analysts had forecast a rise in prices over the month by 0.6%, and in annual terms - by 7.4%
5 May. FINMARKET.RU - Inflation in Russia in April 2016 was 0.4%, according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). Inflation slowed after rising 0.5% in March, 0.6% in February and by 1% - in January. Since the beginning of the year, consumer prices rose by 2.5%. In April 2015, inflation was 0.5% in 4 months - 7.9%. Consumer food prices last month rose 0.4%, non-food - by 0.6%, tariffs for services - by 0.3%. In annual terms, inflation remained at the March level of 7.3%. Last April, the annual inflation rate was 16.4%.In April, 5 the Russian Federation, consumer prices for goods and services rose by 0.8% or more of them in the Chukotka Autonomous District - by 1.4% due to an increase in prices for services and food products by 1.8% and 1 and 6%, respectively. In Moscow, the consumer price index for the month was 100.5% (YTD - 102.7%), in St. Petersburg - 100.4% (from the beginning of the year - 103,1%).Inflation was below analysts' forecasts,


 Inflation was lower than the forecast of analysts polled by "Interfax" that prices are expected to rise by 0.6%. The experts predicted that in annual terms, inflation will accelerate to 7.4%. Analysts had expected a more significant growth of low inflation in April last year against the background of consumer prices. The consensus forecast for inflation in 2016 and decreased already equals 7.4% (7.6% according to a poll last month), which is still above the Ministry of Economic Development of expectations (6.5%) and the Central Bank (6-7%). This April consumer price inflation was also below the forecast of Ministry of Economic Development. Earlier this month, Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev said that the agency expects the April inflation at 0.5%. Ministry of Economic Development in the baseline at $ 50 per barrel expects inflation at 6.4% in 2016, in a conservative scenario, at $ 40 per barrel - at 8.5%. Most real Ulyukaev considers inflation for the year in the range of 7-7.5%. The Bank of Russia expects inflation in 2016 in the baseline scenario will slow down to 6-7% by the end of 2017 Target of 4% is achieved because the risks are reduced. In the risk scenario, inflation will be 5.2%.
 
Food basket increased by 0.2%
 
The cost of a conditional (minimum) set of food per month on average in Russia at the end of April 2016 amounted to 3655.3 rubles and in comparison with the previous month increased by 0.6%, or 22.3 rubles. From the beginning, the food basket increased by 2.9%. The most expensive minimum food set in April remained in Chukotka (9332.8 rubles.), In the Magadan region (6,926.4 rubles.), Yakutia (6231.8 rubles.), In the Kamchatka region (6,170.5 rubles). Sakhalin (5,458.6 rubles).. The cheapest in the last month food package was in the Kursk region (2,951.9 rubles.), In the Saratov region (2,970.6 rubles.), In Mordovia (3001.4 rubles.), In the Belgorod region (3045 rbl.), Penza area (. 3045.7 rubles) cost of the set in Moscow in the end of April amounted to 4430.5 rubles, and in the past month increased by 1.3% (YTD - 4.6%), in St. Petersburg - 4475.2 rubles and increased by 1.3% (YTD - 5%).In April, significantly more expensive cerealsIn April, as in the previous month, there is a significant price increases for certain types of cereals. So, buckwheat-Unground became more expensive by 5.6%, oatmeal "Hercules" - by 2.5%, peas and beans - by 2.1%. Simultaneously, rice and wheat became cheaper by 0.5%. In the group of fish frozen fish prices intact rose by 2.0%, canned fish, different kinds of fish frozen gutted, salted, pickled, smoked - by 1.2-1.5%. At the same time live and chilled fish became cheaper by 0.3%. Among other observable types of foodstuffs at prices black pepper (peas) increased by 2.6%, fruit juices - by 2,2%, water, soda, tea, coffee, ice cream, marshmallows, candy, mutton, ketchup, mayonnaise, margarine, olive oil - by 1.5-2.1%. In April, there was a decrease in prices for individual types of fruits and vegetables observed. Thus, cucumbers, it was 22.2%, oranges - 6.1%, pears - 3.4%, potatoes - 0.5%. However, prices for cabbage fresh cabbage increased by 13,8%, tomatoes - by 10.1%, carrots, garlic, grapes, bananas - on 4,0-6,2%. In addition, national cheeses and cheese fell by 2.0%, poultry, pork, minced meat - by 0.2-0.7%.
 
Tariffs for housing and communal services increased over 4 months to 0.5%
 
Tariffs on utility services in Russia in January-April increased by 0.5%. In January-April 2015, housing prices increased more - by 1.4%. In April this year, the tariffs for housing and communal services showed zero change. In annual terms, the growth rates of 9.1%. Until 2012, the main increase in tariffs for housing and communal services has traditionally accounted for the first month of the year. But in 2012 in connection with the transfer of the federal increase in regulated tariffs for gas and electricity from January 1, July 1 regions also were encouraged to raise utility tariffs from July 1 - so the jump in rates occurs from mid-year. In April, recorded a significant growth of tariffs for certain types of services. Thus, the fee for sending a simple letter increased by 11.6%, the monthly fee for the broadcasting point - by 4.7%. In the group of passenger transport services to a substantial increase in tariffs was celebrated on a flight in the economy class cabin of the aircraft - by 3.9%, in the taxi fare - by 1.4%, travel in ambulances compartment cars branded and non-proprietary long-distance trains - 1.8 % and 1.4% respectively. At the same time by 0.6% cheaper fares become a commuter train. Among other observed types of services 7.3% more expensive license was testament to the notary's office. In 0.8-1.5% increased fee for visiting the children's nursery garden, playing in groups of general physical training, use of public toilets, certain types of household, health and wellness, health care provider. At the same time, a decrease in prices observed in the types of foreign tours. Travel to China have become cheaper by 2.3%, excursion trips to Finland - by 1.3%.topical archiveDemons scienceResponse to the article of the doctor of economic sciences, head of the department of macroeconomic regulation and planning of economic faculty of Moscow State University. MV Lomonosov Moscow State University, a member of the Federation Council Gleb Fetisov, "Demons of inflation", "Izvestiya" newspaper № 97 of June 2, 2006.Demons science
"Inflation - not the law of development, and the case of fools hand, control the state."Ludwig ErhardExtensive discussion in the media policy of our government, and the phenomenon of inflation, in particular, caused the apparent irritation, not only the members of the cabinet, but also venerable scientists, claiming the role of scholars who only allowed to have on these issues an opinion. Thus, German Gref, and declares "inflationary paranoia", and Doctor of Economics, member of the RF Federation Council Gleb Fetisov, calls it, in the article "The demons of inflation," spring exacerbation. It would be possible to agree with their point of view, if inflation did not make our citizens poorer every day, and would not be a hindrance to economic development.Speaking against the "demonization of inflation," the doctor of economic sciences and head of the department of macroeconomic regulation and planning of economic faculty of Moscow State University. MV Lomonosov, Gleb Fetisov told us, without taking into account many truths that inflation is generally difficult to measure, and can not be determined by the price of gold, as gold for many decades demonetized. Though not explained that the demonetization of gold does not prevent measure the value of currency is gold. After all, because the national currency is not backed by gold, it does not mean that their value can not be weighed in the value of gold.A little history about the demonetization of gold.At the end of World War II, the International Monetary Fund was created by the Bretton Woods agreement and established the so-called gold exchange standard. Simply put, it was the United States guarantee the exchange of national currencies for gold at a fixed exchange rate of the US dollar and, therefore, the parity of the gold content. However, when the Europeans and, in particular, General de Gaulle, have tried to change them for gold, President Nixon suspended the practice in 1971, and the US Congress legalized. Gold Standard began to interfere with America to increase the consumption of real merchandise imports in exchange for printed products of the Federal Treasury. In 1976, the Jamaican agreement, and in 1978, the IMF finally released the national currencies of the gold content.But this is not surprising, when reading an article of doctor of economic sciences, confronted with the statement that "the very notion ambiguous and money." Although the money for a long time have a clear concept. Mr. Fetisov holding argue that the war on inflation do not need to keep trying to convince readers that we do not know anything and do not even know what money is. What if the conversation? True, the war against inflation and no one called. The question was about the reasons counteracting causing inflation. But Fetisov is more convenient to speak about the war on inflation.To "prove" that "violent and pointless discussion of the relationship between monetary and non-monetary inflation factors, identifying it with the rising prices, distorting the essence of the problem," Fetisov turns to explain the reasons for non-monetary prices. "The first - the inertia of rising prices. When sellers raise prices, focusing on past trends. The second - the inflexibility of the market, when the price increase is not offset by then their decline. "What, in fact, "say these factors? And they, first of all, talk about the monopolization of the market, when a single monopoly raises prices for their products and services, explains the expected inflation. If we stick to the labor theory of value, all these attempts to explain the rise in prices, from a position of inertia and expectations are ridiculous. The same limited expectations of an individual seller? Yes, nothing except his own imagination. Developing an approach to evaluation, the doctor Fetisov price movements must inevitably come, and to the fact that individual sellers receive additional profit from expectations.Recognising voluntary movement in prices, Fetisov must recognize and arbitrariness of monopolists, rather than trying to write off all of the psychology of individual market participants. That monopoly of individual companies and make rigid the market when the growth of prices does not increase and the supply of goods. With the monopoly in the economy and the related "administrative and regulative factor of rising prices", which refers to the doctor Fetisov "natural phenomenon", since without the participation of a government official, the monopoly would be very difficult.Indeed, the fight against rising prices alone monetary methods, in conditions of high market monopolization, rather inefficient activity, but also diminish the role of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, in the unwinding of inflation is not worth it. And the more it is not necessary to advise to use when it is used in whole, (10 and Bole percent inflation per year) American practice to reduce the cost of labor at the expense of inflation, when the bulk of the Russian workers and so gets a little more than a living wage.Offers Fetisov and ways to combat rising prices. "The inertia of rising prices surmountable. Either a strong government carries out a monetary reform. Either conducted restrictive monetary policy, retarding economic growth. Postwar Germany has implemented the first option. Post-Soviet Russia devalued money savings in several price spikes, and they have generated powerful momentum of rising prices for many years. ""With non-monetary factors of rising prices, especially artificial - yes, fight, fight, suppress. The whole power of the state machine. "
Only if these proposals are unlikely today will be claimed by the state, and especially the state Fetisovskoe proposal to carve itself, such as non-commissioned officer's widow Saltykov-Shchedrin.It is necessary to clarify that, first, the party-economic nomenclature of the USSR, robbing people through depreciation of deposits, under the guise of cost containment, which had no other purpose than enrichment. And not the inertia of rising prices has given rise to this robbery, and the desire of the ruling clique to be doing this trick again and again many times. But that's only the people has become a more intelligent, and therefore have to be satisfied with 10 - 12% instead of 200% old. Secondly, we have the existing monopolies, that a variety of methods to achieve annual growth of prices for their services, are public, and their board, the board of directors are the same government officials who the brave Ph.D. calls to fight and to fight against monopolies. But today officials are more pragmatic than the non-commissioned officer's widow, and therefore did not follow the advice of the doctor zealous. Finally, it is necessary to explain to readers what it means to "restrictive monetary policy"? "Restriction - it's banks and government loan limit size in order to contain inflation '(Dictionary of Foreign Words and expressions" edited by ES Zenovich), and so the question arises - whether it may be a non-monetary?Fetisov Doctor ought to take a more clear and consistent position, and not shy away from one another. Offering moderate inflation and advocate the course "to improve the efficiency of production and circulation of goods and services."Who would argue with the fact that you need to look for ways to improve access to the labor productivity growth, but that growth, for some reason, does not occur. And one of the reasons that do not allow to move in the indicated direction is high inflation and monopolization, the arbitrariness of monopolists in the pricing of their products and services, the arbitrariness of government officials pursuing their own narrow group goals. After all, to ensure that productivity growth is necessary to introduce new technologies and upgrading of industrial production, which can not be recouped in a year or two. But in our conditions, it is very few people interested.And the last thing I would like to notice the doctor Fetisov: do not their perception of the world and their approaches to attribute to others. Not every citizen, setting out its point of view, seek a fee for it. And if citizens and trying to understand something, to find truth, it does not mean that they desired to receive the Nobel Prize. After all, in the search for truth, the main goal is the truth itself, and not a reward for the explicit or imaginary works.Vitaly Glukhov
 
07.09. 2006

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