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вторник, 24 мая 2016 г.

Without robbing pensioners no development !!!

 Brainstorm tear the economy from the bottomFor sustainable economic growth need drastic means
Russia's economy is at risk of permanently stuck at the bottom, because the country has not found a new model of development. Another attempt to find a way out of the impasse will be made on May 25 at a meeting of the Economic Council under the President of the Russian Federation. Leading experts will try to "diagnose" the economy: to determine what prevents its development, and, on this basis, to determine the direction of motion.

 
According to official data from Rosstat, the decline of domestic GDP in the first quarter of this year was 1.2% in annual terms. At first glance, there is no tragedy in the Ministry of Economic Development have predicted the fall of two percent in the first three months of the year, and the Ministry of Finance promised that the economy adapts to new conditions, and will be released in a plus to the end of the year.


Head of MED Alexei Ulyukayev at the end of last week, said that the domestic economy has emerged from recession. Moreover, it happened six months ago. While GDP growth shows a negative trend, but "it is so close to zero", that we can not speak of a recession. The fact that the bottom is passed, the same day and said President Vladimir Putin.
However, there is no cause for joy. This convinced the ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who in April was assigned to head the board of Foundation "Center for Strategic Research" and a working group on reform as part of the President's Economic Council. These structures will be engaged in the elaboration of the development strategy of the country after 2018. According to Kudrin, "because the old model worked out the economy, and the new has not yet formed, then, even after passing the bottom, we will stay at the bottom of this." The ex-minister is convinced of the need to achieve long-term growth - not to get the next "bubble" for one or two years, after which followed the collapse. The key to sustainable development must be "major reforms" that have so far been delayed.
Previously used tools such as sequestration budget no longer help. The country needs reforms, and this nobody argues. The question of what kind of reforms are needed in Russia, will be discussed at a session of the Economic Council chaired by Vladimir Putin, which is scheduled for May 25th. According to the Speaker of the Kremlin Dmitry Peskov, a meeting will be "brainstorming", which will be announced a variety of options out of the Russian economy on the growth rate of no less than the world average.
A prelude to the meeting of the Presidential Council was the first meeting of the working group headed by Kudrin. It was held on Monday, May 23rd. Its members intend to meet once a month and eventually submit to the President its economic development proposals linked with the strategy for the period up to 2030. Former Minister of Finance hereby warned that its members do not come to the meeting of the Economic Council with ready-made solutions, but only begin to discuss the accumulated problems.
To address the challenges facing the economy, there are two approaches. The first - to achieve the desired performance in the short term (for this option are the members of the club Stolypin, including presidential aide Andrei Belousov, the head of state adviser Sergei Glazyev and business ombudsman Boris Titov). Second - make a leisurely, but a planned and sustainable growth (stick Alexei Kudrin and Economic Development Ministry).
"Stolypins" urge to use the currency issue to finance investment projects: in other words, run the printing press and to reduce the key rate of the Central Bank in order to make cheap money available for an unlimited number of economic agents. However, their opponents claim that such methods may be briefly revive the economy, but only at the cost of a sharp increase in the risk of macroeconomic destabilization, which will lead to a significant increase in inflation, the growth of capital outflows, weakening of the ruble and the resumption of a recession.
From the point of view of Kudrin, enter the desired growth rate of 4% per year can be no earlier than 4-5 years, and then only if the "full reform in several areas." Create the necessary investment capacity of the market, which will ensure the competitiveness and economic growth, will help only a tribute to the quality of market institutions. To transform savings into investments should help the development of the banking system, for which it is necessary to reduce inflation and, therefore, and bank interest rates. In addition, market participants need to be sure that the jump in inflation in the near future will not happen. And with cash dopechatyvanii inflation expectations rise.
Enforcement capacity growth rate would require pumping money into the economy, which will lead to destructive consequences, as will reduce the effect of savings and future investments, he said. At the same time, in his opinion, the council members need to think not only about economic growth and reforms, but also on social welfare, which should not be affected. For example, the accounts of enterprises are now enough funds (about 12 trillion rubles), so Kudrin offers direct budgetary funding for the social sector, and not to support growth.
Headed by the former head of the Ministry of Finance Center for Strategic Research also suggests that changes in the judicial and law enforcement systems, to carry out pension reform, reduce the state's share in the economy to reallocate budget expenditures in favor of the development of human capital and infrastructure, reform of public administration.
In the same vein, think and specialists of the Ministry of Economic Development. As the CSR, they insist on raising the retirement age to 63-65 years to reduce the deficit of labor resources and the balance of the pension system. Another condition for economic growth should be increasing investment by 7-8% per year at the current level of consumption.
Position of Economic Development agreed with the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank. The agency presentation, which will be presented at a meeting of the Economic Council under the President also proposed to create a budget funds for co-financing of infrastructure investments in the investment against future tax revenues from them and switch to problem of state enterprises to support export directly. For the latter, in particular, need to be legislated simplified procedure: to speed up the return of VAT, simplify customs regulations and export controls, reducing import duties on components and equipment.
Whose position will seem more convincing to the president, will tell a meeting scheduled for Wednesday. However, not the fact that far-reaching conclusions will be made after the meeting. As stated in the environment to the President, Vladimir Putin intends first of all to listen and summarize all the proposals. Perhaps based on them will be found consensus.Anton MESNYANKO00:27, 05.24.2016  

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