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суббота, 30 января 2016 г.

The reasons for the instability of the ruble

We think together: the dollar can cost 126 rublesAgain, the price of oil fell, followed by the Russian ruble collapsed.
Life is blatantly contrary to the forecasts of the Russian authorities.The government of Russia almost every month come forward, calling the prevailing exchange rate, "market", "fair", "stable", "reasonable", etc. A few days later the ruble again falls into the abyss.Opened tradition unsuccessful vangovaniya Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. In the midst of the first monetary panic in December 2014. Prime Minister confidently declared that "the fundamental reason for further weakening of the ruble does not exist, the main economic indicators are stable, the reserves for development and support there, the banking system is stable." Shortly before the 2016 failed vangovala Elvira Nabiullina, who assured everyone that the ruble has stabilized (in the period by 70.1 per dollar) and the spike will be gone. Or else - this is a classic of the genre. Everyone remembers how Alexei Ulyukayev in August 2015 called "fair "the current exchange rate - at 66 per dollar. But the very next day, the dollar rose to 70.7 rubles.

How do they find there (what they're smoking)? What these methods the government uses to justify the current exchange rate? It is not explained well, because it is impossible to check.Russians greatly saddened sagging ruble, rising prices and rampant inflation. But, theoretically, the Russian ruble may be worth substantially less than it is now. It can cost almost nothing. More precisely - the ratio of the dollar against the ruble can grow up to 1 to 126.Judge for yourself. Today the price of oil is at the level of 2004. The dollar is now worth almost 75 rubles, and in 2004 was worth 29.9. During the same time, the nominal size of Russia's GDP increased from 17 to 71 bln. rubles. That is Russian rubles printed at this point is 4.2 times more than there were in 2004. A foreign exchange earnings for the ruble mass was no more. Accordingly, the price of the currency should strive to figure 4.2. That is the price of the dollar could rise from the current 73 rubles to 126 rubles.That such simple arithmetic. Sorry if the result of the calculations is unpleasant, but the method of calculation clear and transparent as a drop of vodka.16 feature of the Russian model of economic growth has been that the government simply kept a stable exchange rate against the dollar, rather than attempting to develop processing industries of the real economy. Accordingly, no new software for the Russian Rouble (excluding revenues from oil and gas) over the years and have not arisen. The government printed the shock rubles, rubles and since you can still be exchanged for dollars and the real goods, standard of living grew. The population of such a policy, too, loved. Working hands instead of factories went to the offices where the work is calmer and better fed.Perhaps the way that the Russian government did not panic about the dollar to 75 rubles, precisely because it knows that its real price is even higher.Sergei IsrapilovSource: forum-dag.ru  

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