Russian debt came under the control of foreigners
Foreign banks and funds increasing their activity in the market of Russian government debt by buying government bonds of the Russian Federation in a record in the history volumes. As reported by the Bank of Russia, for the first quarter foreign market participants purchased bonds of Federal loan of 288 billion, confirming its status as the largest creditor of the Russian budget. Purchase amount twice the figure for October-December and 2.2 times the forecast of the Central Bank (120-140 billion rubles).
For the quarter in the hands of non-residents was 80% of all new debt that the Ministry of Finance raised on the market (357 billion) in the Federal budget.
Russian banks thus lent to the government only 34.6 billion rubles, and in March were sold government securities. Foreigners, however, increased their buying to an unprecedented 196 billion for the month.
As a result, on April 1 from non-residents was the duty of the government of the Russian Federation on 1,806 trillion rubles. This is 30.1% of the total market volumes and higher than the previous record set in may 2013 (28.1 percent). In fact, the proportion of foreigners is much more, says the analyst Prosveshenya Roman Nasonov: the figure which gives the Central Bank takes into account non-liquid OFZ issues (such as those issued to support the banking sector in 2014-15). In the same securities that are traded on the Moscow stock exchange, non-residents have de facto control of the market.
"The share of foreign investors in liquid issues with a fixed coupon greater than 50%, and in the far part of the curve (long-term bonds - ed.) - 70%," - said Nasonov.
This is a record high even by the standards of emerging markets, among which the Russian gives one of the highest yields for operations carry-trade, noted in the review of analysts of Bank "St.-Petersburg. Non-residents is cheap in dollars or euros (under 1% or even 0% APR), buy rubles, they are ruble bonds with a yield of 8% per annum, resulting in a "nothing to worry, thinking of nothing, with minimal risk, high interest", explained on 17 April, the business Ombudsman Boris Titov.
In the Wake of the Russian debt market "becomes vulnerable," said Nasonov from PSB: if you have any of the risks of foreign capital will run back.
"If the pyramid of speculative carry-trade collapse, it drags down the ruble," warns the analyst of Bank "Zenith" Vladimir Evstifeev. A total of 5 blocks of non-residents brought to the market about 13 billion dollars.
"The huge demand for foreign currency will be brought practically simultaneously, and to avoid the devaluation of the ruble in this case it is impossible," write economists HSE, headed by Natalia Akindinova.
The outflow of capital from BFL - it is a possible risk "in case of realization of internal or external shocks", announced on April 13 the financial stability Forum, the first Deputy Chairman of the regulator Ksenia Yudaeva.
According to her, conducted by the Bank of Russia the survey confirmed the hypothesis that foreign investors do not intend to hold the bonds to maturity. "Such risks, the Central Bank takes into account in its policy," said Yudaeva.
Foreign banks and funds increasing their activity in the market of Russian government debt by buying government bonds of the Russian Federation in a record in the history volumes. As reported by the Bank of Russia, for the first quarter foreign market participants purchased bonds of Federal loan of 288 billion, confirming its status as the largest creditor of the Russian budget. Purchase amount twice the figure for October-December and 2.2 times the forecast of the Central Bank (120-140 billion rubles).
For the quarter in the hands of non-residents was 80% of all new debt that the Ministry of Finance raised on the market (357 billion) in the Federal budget.
Russian banks thus lent to the government only 34.6 billion rubles, and in March were sold government securities. Foreigners, however, increased their buying to an unprecedented 196 billion for the month.
As a result, on April 1 from non-residents was the duty of the government of the Russian Federation on 1,806 trillion rubles. This is 30.1% of the total market volumes and higher than the previous record set in may 2013 (28.1 percent). In fact, the proportion of foreigners is much more, says the analyst Prosveshenya Roman Nasonov: the figure which gives the Central Bank takes into account non-liquid OFZ issues (such as those issued to support the banking sector in 2014-15). In the same securities that are traded on the Moscow stock exchange, non-residents have de facto control of the market.
"The share of foreign investors in liquid issues with a fixed coupon greater than 50%, and in the far part of the curve (long-term bonds - ed.) - 70%," - said Nasonov.
This is a record high even by the standards of emerging markets, among which the Russian gives one of the highest yields for operations carry-trade, noted in the review of analysts of Bank "St.-Petersburg. Non-residents is cheap in dollars or euros (under 1% or even 0% APR), buy rubles, they are ruble bonds with a yield of 8% per annum, resulting in a "nothing to worry, thinking of nothing, with minimal risk, high interest", explained on 17 April, the business Ombudsman Boris Titov.
In the Wake of the Russian debt market "becomes vulnerable," said Nasonov from PSB: if you have any of the risks of foreign capital will run back.
"If the pyramid of speculative carry-trade collapse, it drags down the ruble," warns the analyst of Bank "Zenith" Vladimir Evstifeev. A total of 5 blocks of non-residents brought to the market about 13 billion dollars.
"The huge demand for foreign currency will be brought practically simultaneously, and to avoid the devaluation of the ruble in this case it is impossible," write economists HSE, headed by Natalia Akindinova.
The outflow of capital from BFL - it is a possible risk "in case of realization of internal or external shocks", announced on April 13 the financial stability Forum, the first Deputy Chairman of the regulator Ksenia Yudaeva.
According to her, conducted by the Bank of Russia the survey confirmed the hypothesis that foreign investors do not intend to hold the bonds to maturity. "Such risks, the Central Bank takes into account in its policy," said Yudaeva.
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