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вторник, 2 февраля 2016 г.

Fortunetellers tea leaves

 Ulyukayev: the decline in GDP is likely to slow in December01.25.2016 9:55Russia's GDP, purified by seasonal factors in December, likely to continue to decline in the second consecutive month, but at a slower pace than the previous month, according to Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev.
"The decline in GDP in December probably slowed down (seasonally purified month-to-month, compared with the November index of minus 0.3% - approx. Ed.)", - The minister said.
"I think the trend has not continued in December compared to November the situation has not deteriorated," - said Ulyukayev, adding that accurate statistical estimates will appear in the coming days.


According to the Ministry, Russia's GDP with the exception of seasonality, in November decreased by 0.3% - the first time since June. In annual terms, the decline in November was 4% after falling 3.7% in October.
Earlier, Ulyukayev said that in the whole of 2015, according to preliminary estimates, Russia's GDP could drop was 3.9%.
In 2016 Ministry of Economic Development in the current baseline scenario at $ 50 per barrel of oil expects GDP growth of 0.7%. In the scenario of $ 40 per barrel, the agency forecasts economic decline in the current year in the range of 1%, in the scenario of $ 25 per barrel to expect that the recession will not exceed last year's level, ie 3.9%.
Alexei Ulyukayev also agreed with the opinion of the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde, that oil prices have the potential to increase due to growth in demand, and by the revaluation factor quickly to market of Iran and by adjusting expectations for Fed action. In this regard, in his opinion, the average oil price in 2016 will be higher than current prices.
"I agree that they (the price of oil - approx. Ed.) Have the potential recovery," - said Ulyukayev, commenting on the appropriate statement by the head of the IMF Christine Lagarde at the forum in Davos.

Economic Development announces its insolvencyRussian Economic Development Ministry predicts a fall in GDP by 3%Russian Ministry of Economic Development downgraded drop in GDP.On this, as reports "Interfax", said the head of department Alexey Ulyukayev."We made a forecast for 2015, which is based on the preservation of the current market prices, that is $ 50 per barrel for the entire 2015. While the consensus forecasts indicate a higher rating, but we believe the most conservative. This means decline in GDP is quite significant, at 3 percent, "- said the Minister.The decline in the industry, he said, is now expected to reach 1.6 percent. In the previous version of the forecast ministry expects to increase industrial output in 2015 by 1.1 percent.
Inflation in Russia in 2015 is forecasted at the level of the Ministry of 12 percent. The outflow of capital from the country is expected to reach 115 billion dollars.At the beginning of December 2014 the Ministry suggested that the decline of Russia's GDP in 2015 will amount to 0.8 per cent (at an oil price of 80 dollars per barrel). Inflation is projected at 7.5 percent, and capital flight - $ 80 billion.
 
-------------------------------------------------- ------------------Ulyukayev said Minister frankly Russian citizens that work for the good of the country they do not know and do not want, but from government positions will not give up. To reallocate money from the sale of hydrocarbons is sufficient and one accountant and a huge bureaucratic apparatus, showing a continuation of the oligarchic affiliation unwinding of inflation, it is time to send in the dustbin of history 


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