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вторник, 2 февраля 2016 г.

Podderzhali..milliard have lowered ... and again lowered

Presidential adviser: speculators earned on the manipulation of the rate of $ 50 billion02.02.2016 |Over the past year and a half speculators earned on the manipulation of the national currency exchange rate $ 50 billion, told "Gazeta.ru" presidential adviser Sergei Glazyev.He said that these savings can not long lie down, they should be invested. For this reason, large speculators have agreed to return to the previously adopted program of privatization of state assets. But while some of them say that the privatization should not hurry.

"Speculators say that you first need to reorganize inefficient companies and banks with the help of the budget, remove losses on government assistance, or who buy government stakes with such holes, and then you can take part in the privatization," - said Glazyev.In this regard, Russian President Vladimir Putin among the basic principles of the new wave of privatization called publicity, with the exception of state credits and offshore. Glazyev noted that such principles when compared to the 1990s, privatization in Russia have not yet been evaluated."I remember that privatization was based on the investment competitions, but who then checked, whether the commitments made? No one has reported, but in most cases, investment plans have not been implemented. This property of the new owners no one wins. This should not happen again, "- he said.If privatization does get a hold on these principles the president, it can be effective, and the experience of other countries, particularly the UK, it proves adviser to the president stressed.Earlier it was reported that Vladimir Putin outlined the key conditions for the privatization of state companies.


Somewhat earlier,Podderzhali..milliard have lowered ... and again lowered
 
Goldman Sachs: CB forced to devalue the ruble Quote.rbc.ru 28.01.2014 10:42The rapid depreciation of the ruble continues. Since the beginning of the Russian currency, according to estimates economists, Goldman Sachs, lost 4.8% in value. Although the bank's experts expected weakening of the ruble, it was still hope that the favorable seasonality would support the ruble in the I quarter of 2014. However, analysts believe that the main reason was the weakness of the ruble exchange rate mechanism of the CBR.In connection with the current pace of ruble depreciation experts Goldman Sachs were forced to revise their forecasts. Forecast for 3, 6 and 12 months on the basket now stands at 41, 41.3 and 41.5 rubles. (previous forecast - 37.5, 38.5 and 39.5 rubles., respectively). According to a new forecast for the dollar during these periods of 35, 35, and 35.2 rubles.Given the current political and economic reality in Russia, the Central Bank has never hard to gain credibility as an inflation fighter. Many agents prefer to see soft economy and weak ruble policy, not just banks. For example, the Ministry of Finance profitable soft monetary policy and cheap ruble, since half of the budget and a third of government revenues are dependent on the weakness of the national currency. Thus, it is not surprising that the regulator is under constant pressure to change course.The current weakening of the ruble could be explained by speculation in the market is that the transition to a floating exchange rate of the Central Bank will be forced to abandon its previous position. However, at Goldman Sachs believe otherwise. According to analysts, the Central Bank will refuse the intervention of the corridor and at the same time focus on inflation. Moreover - according to economists, until the end of the year inflation will not keep to the target of 5%, so the regulator will not be able to soften the policy, without losing the hard-won trust.According to forecasts of Goldman Sachs, is that interest rates in Russia will not change. And in fact, there is a risk that the central bank will have to tighten monetary policy in order to achieve the desired level of inflation.Although from a legal point of view, the Russian Central Bank is independent, he still is not insulated from political influence, and, given the economic actors, who prefer a soft policy, the regulator will have to fully support the President's strategy.So far, the hopes for seasonal support the ruble did not materialize. The main reason for the pressure on the current account, even without taking into account the rise in oil prices, was a steady increase in imports. However, the slowdown in the economy, the slower growth of the real effective exchange rate by reducing inflation and import substitution in certain sectors of the economy, import growth slowed. In 2013. the dollar value of imports rose by only 2.5% (or $ 8.7 billion.). Given that exports are still 50% higher import volumes can easily grow by 3-4%, without compromising the trade balance. Thus, the dynamics of the balance of trade has no impact on the ruble.In fact, other factors are putting pressure on the current account. For example, trips abroad and a weak balance of income. According to economists Goldman Sachs, the current sharp increase in spending on tourism is gradually subside. On trips abroad, Russians now spend 3% of GDP compared with 1.9% in Canada and 3.4% in Norway. It will be interesting to take a look, analysts say, how to change the trend of investment in tourism in Sochi. While some predict that in this case, it is difficult in itself, this factor is unlikely to have a significant impact on the ruble, the bank concluded.Material provided by Goldman SachsA source
 
Central Bank put $ 1 billion to support the national currency01.28.2014 8:19Yesterday, the Central Bank conducted the most extensive foreign exchange intervention in October 2011. According to market participants, yesterday the Bank of Russia sold about $ 1 billion, keep the rate of the currency basket at the level of 40.31 rubles. However, such expenditure may only delay the weakening of the ruble, but not stop it.Yesterday, from the very beginning of the trading session, the Bank of Russia began to actively intervene in its course. According to dealers, on the background of a sharp depreciation of the currency basket and reaching the upper limit of the corridor at 40.5 rubles. The Central Bank started to unlimited "cumulative" currency intervention. According to the Head of the Monetary and Financial Department Citibank Denis Korshilova, the Central Bank to support the ruble could sell up to $ 1 billion. "Judging by the fact that the maximum of the currency basket reached 40.65 rubles., It can be assumed that the Central Bank moved Corridor 15 kopecks. It can fit almost $ 1 billion of interventions "- evaluates and chief analyst at Nordea Bank Dmitry Savchenko. As a result of actions of the Central Bank of the stock exchange trading volume remained at a high level: the total volume of trading in dollars with delivery "tomorrow" yesterday was $ 7.5 billion, which is comparable to the previous two days and twice the average trading volume in December.The last time such an active Central Bank sold the currency for more than two years ago, at the beginning of October 2011. Then one day on October 5, he sold the currency to $ 1.17 billion. On other days, his presence was limited mainly planned shopping corridor inside semirublevogo currency fluctuations. Thus, in December and January, he acquired about $ 200 million a day.The active intervention of the Central Bank in exchange trading had a positive impact on the ruble. At the end of the trading session the dollar, to rise in the course of trading to mark 34.862 rubles ./$, closed at 34.6 rubles ./$ that only 5 kopecks. above Friday's close. The euro closed at 47.29 rubles. / €, down 2 kopecks. below the previous day's close. As a result, the value of the currency basket rose symbolic 2 kopecks., To 40,31 rubles."Despite the apparent freedom of movements in exchange rates after the lifting of targeted interventions, the regulator has not withdrawn from the market completely, - the analyst of bank" Zenith "Vladimir Evstifeev.- Therefore, access to the zone of increased intervention continues to limit the ardor of those players who are set to more drastic the weakening of the ruble. "However, not only the decisive action of the Central Bank had an impact on the domestic currency market. According to currency dealers for overall business conditions influenced the correction that took place yesterday in the currency markets of a number of developing countries. According to Bloomberg, the course of the Turkish lira against the US dollar yesterday rose by 2%, the Mexican peso and the Singapore dollar rose 0.2%. So investors reacted to the Bank of Turkey's intention to hold an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday. "In 2006 and 2011 the Turkish regulator also held emergency meetings at which sharply raised its key interest rate. This had a positive impact on the lira, - said Denis Korshilov.- Investors hope that after the Bank of Turkey with the support of the national currencies of other central banks act developing countries. " According to the head direction on Macroeconomics bank "Petrocommerce" Dmitry Kharlampiev to maintain the ruble Russian Central Bank may go for a purposeful limitation Scope of refinancing commercial banks.Nevertheless, market participants believe that the growth in the value of the currency basket in the near future will continue. A key influence on the behavior of investors will have the results of the meetings of the US Federal Reserve, said Mr. Korshilov. According to the average forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the Fed meeting on January 28-29, will reduce purchases of assets by $ 10 billion to $ 65 billion a month, and will continue to minimize the QE pace at subsequent meetings. Such a decision may serve as further strengthening of the US currency on world markets. "At this meeting, the Fed is likely to continue to reduce the incentive program, and it's not very good news for emerging currencies," - said Dmitry Savchenko. In addition, the weakening of the ruble, and will contribute to ending the current week period of tax payments, since with it reduced demand for rubles from exporters.
Source: Kommersant

 
January 14, 2014 the Central Bank announced that refuses to carrying out targeted interventions in the foreign exchange market. Previously, the maximum amount of such interventions amounted to 60 million USD. A day. At the same time the central bank will continue to carry out non-targeted interventions to smooth sharp fluctuations of the exchange rate when it goes beyond the width of the neutral range of 3.1 rubles. around the middle of the corridor. Last year, of 27 billion dollars. Sold by the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market, $ 16 billion. Had to targeted interventions, ie more than half of the total intervention of the Central Bank does not lead to a shift of the corridor of the currency basket. Thus, the rejection of this tool is an important step towards greater volatility of the ruble. No less important role played by this measure in the context of reductions related to the sale of the Central Bank currency outflows from the banking sector in a growing shortage of liquidity.
Read more: http://quote.rbc.ru/topnews/2014/01/14/34095951.html
Euro "Moscow Exchange" exceeded 48 rubles., The currency basket - 41 rubles.January 29. FINMARKET.RU - Euro today renewed its historical maximum, "the Moscow stock exchange", rising above 48 rubles, against the backdrop of the fall of the ruble and other currencies of emerging markets. The cost of the currency basket has exceeded 41 rubles. The dollar rose to "the Moscow stock exchange" to 18:17 MSK to 35.25 rubles., Adding 51 kopecks. The euro thus reached 48.15 rubles., The currency basket - 41.06 rubles. The fall of the ruble strengthened against the background of instability in the global currency market. Experts of "Interfax-CEA" believe that the intervention of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in support of the ruble in the environment could exceed $ 2 billion.
Published / Finmarket /_______________________________________________________________________
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